Tyler Web3

Cryptocurrency cultivation levels, have you reached the Golden Core stage?

This map by Shenchao is quite interesting: 0.115 BTC for Foundation Establishment, 1.5 BTC for Golden Core, and 15 BTC for becoming a Primordial Infant old monster.

If you reach the Great Perfection of Transformation God with 10,000 BTC (1.1 billion USD), then you are beyond the human realm.......

Then Satoshi Nakamoto is definitely the 'Cryptocurrency Daoist Ancestor'.

Hardware Wallet "Full Process" Security Manual

Buying a hardware wallet doesn't guarantee your assets are secure. True security comes from a closed-loop protection system covering the three stages of purchase, activation, and use:

1️⃣ Purchase: Only use official channels, avoid e-commerce, live streaming, or second-hand products.
2️⃣ Activation: Always initialize and verify the device status yourself.
3️⃣ Use: Handwrite and save your mnemonic phrase to avoid long-term online exposure.

If manufacturers provide verification mechanisms such as activation history and binding information, they can completely disrupt the gray market "hunting chain."

The 9 million of the little hero has been unfrozen

At the national level, it seems that efforts are being concentrated to promote the unfreezing of a batch of 'frozen accounts'. Many accounts that were frozen a few years ago have recently been unfrozen and funds have been credited.

The amounts are substantial, the unfreezing process is complete, and the timelines match. It feels like a relatively large-scale unified cleanup.

Brother Sun rang the bell in the United States

Automatically became the big brother on Trump's list, not afraid of being 'pledged' in the United States

Web3 Worldview: In the 20s, a project worth $4 billion

Once young as well, the Web3 industry is where youth produces heroes. Many speculate that the mysterious Satoshi Nakamoto was also a young person back in the day.

I actually think that, based on the level of reasoning from the white paper to the PoW architecture design, and the email exchanges, it is unlikely that Satoshi was in his 20s or 30s.

His mastery of cryptography, game theory, economic systems, and even coding habits resembles that of a mature individual who has "practiced for over ten years" in academia or engineering.

Regardless, Web3 is at least currently very fair; if you are geeky enough, understand growth, and know how to play the game, you can achieve results even without a degree.

How many $BTC do countries have now?

This statistical chart is quite intuitive, but there are some details that are not quite right. For example, the 194,000 BTC mentioned in the Chinese part had been disposed of and turned over to the treasury as early as 2020, and they were not still in the position.

After checking the information, 190,000 BTC, 830,000 Ethereum, and 27.24 million $EOS were seized at that time, and the domestic company "Zhifan Technology" was responsible for OTC. A large part of them were sold between the end of 2019 and the middle of 2020 when BTC was between US$7,000 and US$12,000.

Now, BTC alone is worth more than 160 billion...

In contrast, the United States, Britain and other countries do have BTC temporarily retained due to law enforcement seizures. Some will be auctioned at an appropriate time, and some have not yet been sold. Moreover, law enforcement assets ≠ national strategic reserves. Whether they will actually enter the central bank's balance sheet in the future remains to be seen.

Don't get too excited yet, these two market indicators are worth paying attention to.

1️⃣ The first is the annualized funding rate, which has been consistently above 10% for BTC and ETH since July 14, lasting over 72 hours. This is a cost indicator for the bulls.

2️⃣ The second is the Aave on-chain USDT lending rate, which has also started to rise significantly in the past couple of days, indicating that on-chain leveraged funds have heavily entered the market, and the sentiment is leaning towards being bullish (USDC hasn't moved much).

The former indicates that bulls have been bleeding, especially BTC. If the price cannot continue to break through, it will keep bleeding, possibly triggering a chain reaction of bull liquidations.

The latter can be seen as a thermometer for the willingness of on-chain funds to go long. It has started to rise significantly, indicating that leveraged funds have entered the market on a large scale.

In simple terms, funds are continually betting, but if the price increase does not materialize, the bulls will face ongoing cost pressure. The next 72 hours leading up to next week will be a key observation window for this round of market movement.

Not many people know about XIN now, right?

I just found out it’s still alive from BigONE's announcement. Back in the day, it was considered a starting point for many: signing in to receive $BTC , endorsements from Li Xiaolai, and XIN was regarded as the core asset of the BigONE ecosystem.

Some exchanged 100 of $ETH for 100 XIN, and some firmly believed it was the future of decentralization... and now it has turned into what it is today.

Everything in crypto is only understood when looking back.

Another user successfully subscribed to GPT using the MasterCard @SafePal

Using a Singapore IP + Singapore address, I previously used a US IP + US address, you can give it a try

Web3 wallets are starting to integrate on-chain US stocks one after another

I just saw the newly added xStocks label in the market section @SafePal , with all the stocks like Tesla, Netflix, Meta, Apple available

To be honest, compared to the past reliance on synthetic assets (like Synthetix), this form of wallet integration is indeed better, directly penetrating from the infrastructure layer to the user entry point

The integration of Onchain and TradFi should be like this, with a lower barrier to entry and a wider reach

80,000 pieces $BTC Super Giant Whale has started to act?

Just now, more than 17,000 pieces of BTC (over 2 billion USD) have been transferred to Galaxy Digital

If this is the OTC receiving address of Galaxy Digital, it could mean that this portion of BTC is entering the OTC trading, settlement, or custody process.

BTC officially becomes the 5th largest asset in the world

Today BTC reached 120,000 USD, with a total market value of 2.4 trillion USD, becoming the 5th ranked asset globally, only behind gold, NVIDIA, Microsoft, and Apple

At the same time, it is also the 16th largest 'currency' in the world, following fiat currencies such as the Renminbi, US Dollar, Euro, Japanese Yen, and British Pound

Fiat money has been printed hundreds of millions of times, while BTC remains at a fixed supply of 21 million coins

Wildcard has also run away

The official website cannot be accessed, and the processing method is close to deleting the database and running away, without any buffer. It is reported that there is a problem with the card BIN used

From Infini to Wildcard, it has been proved that it is not about who runs faster, but who lives longer

As for AI subscription, I just used SafePal MasterCard + US IP + US address not long ago to successfully open GPT. It is recommended that everyone switch to the regular card issuance path

BTC Surge, Let's Talk About the Two Possible Drivers Behind It

1. On the funding side, the "great transfer before the collapse" of a certain notorious platform

Recently, a certain notorious platform was reported to have seen as much as 1.8 billion USDT (approximately 12.9 billion RMB) being gradually gathered from multiple user pools, concentrating into three new addresses just before the platform's collapse in June.

On-chain data shows that these funds quickly turned white, making them almost impossible to recover. Such operations theoretically can only flow into BTC/ETH in the end, as holding USDT is too risky and could be frozen by Tether or Sun Ge at any moment.

The timing also aligns closely with recent market performance.

2. On the news front, the Crypto learning wave has reached Shanghai

This week, Shanghai organized a study on Crypto and stablecoins, leading many to speculate that the policy direction will bring in new investments, with even the elderly starting to get involved.

However, I personally feel the likelihood is low. Objectively speaking, the press release was issued late at night, and new investments could not ramp up so quickly. Moreover, the market's triggering point appeared last night and this morning, which doesn't completely match the timeline.

Which explanation do you lean towards?

Trump's number one brother changed from Musk to Justin

$BTC broke through 112,000 USD, but the account hasn't really increased, and has even shrunk?

Don't worry, you are definitely not alone.

From the data, it's clear that BTC Holders and ALT Holders are already experiencing a "fire and ice" situation: since the low of 15,000 USD at the end of 2022, BTC has risen by 800%, and its market share has soared from 38% to 64%.

Meanwhile, the vast majority of ALTs are still stuck at the foot of the mountain, with declines generally exceeding 90%. Forget about altcoin season; even the leading altcoin ETH has significantly underperformed BTC.

The script has completely changed this time.

It's essential to know that, according to past cycles, the market always follows a three-act structure:

In the early stages of a bull market, BTC initiates (first phase);
Next, liquidity gradually spills over, driving ETH and mainstream ALTs to take over (second phase);
Finally, there is a rotation among sectors, with ALT coins running rampant, and everyone reaches a climax (third phase);

But this time, from beginning to end, there has only been the first phase, with almost no downward transmission—ETH did not take over, and ALTs have no rotation; the liquidity in the entire market is only circulating among a very few assets.

In fact, this is not just a problem for BTC; it is a reflection of the overall divergence in the structure of risk assets—almost all risk assets in the financial market are experiencing "top-tier growth," with a small number of giants dominating the overall trend, and index performance is highly dependent on them.

If you exclude tech giants like Nvidia, Apple, and Microsoft, the performance of the Nasdaq or S&P will be significantly diminished, and other component stocks will struggle to support such increases. The much-anticipated altcoin season is no different.

BTC's performance is highly correlated with these tech stocks, which, to some extent, indicates that it has become highly financialized; the driving force behind it is no longer retail investors but Wall Street, aligning itself with the tech stocks of the US market.

This is also why ALTs have been sluggish in this cycle; it's not that they are late to start, but rather that they are not even on the chessboard. So if you are still waiting for a traditional altcoin season, you are destined to be disappointed.

Of course, an extremely polarized market is not without opportunities; rather, in this era of concentrated liquidity after the ALTs, structures for arbitrage, information asymmetry, and other strategies are worth paying attention to: cross-chain/protocol stablecoin, arbitrage funding rate game, binary options-type event trading, pre-positioning of narratives, etc.

Zelensky's 'To Wear or Not to Wear a Suit': A $200 Million Controversy

This is no joke; Zelensky's 'To Wear or Not to Wear a Suit' before July has truly become a hot topic on Polymarket, sparking a $200 million controversy.

The facts themselves are not complicated. On June 25, Zelensky attended an event in a suit, and mainstream interpretations from BBC, designers, and others concluded — it was a suit. Logically, the result should have been settled, and the $200 million standoff would have reached its conclusion.

However, the on-chain results have stalled, with the 'Yes' fluctuating, which shows the twists and turns involved. Some individuals, undeterred, bet big on the 'Yes' option, with thousands of dollars at stake. One big player sold off 'Yes' and made over $50,000 in floating profits in one night. If the final result is determined to be 'Yes', profits could soar to $2.9 million.

However, it currently seems that, even though reality and most people know he indeed wore a suit, the final ruling is still not optimistic~

Why?

The key lies in Polymarket relying on the decentralized oracle UMA for result determination. Its operational mechanism allows holders to participate in dispute resolution via voting, which makes it easy for top players to manipulate the outcome in some topical events:

✔ In the first round of voting, the oracle judged it as 'Yes', but was rejected by big players.
✘ In the second round of voting, it changed to 'No', and controversy still exists.

It has now entered the final ruling process, with only 20 hours left, and the probability of 'No' is as high as 98%, almost a done deal. The outcome will likely be dominated once again by the voting power of whales.

This is not the first time; there have been instances where the oracle's conclusions were 'reversed' by whale voting, even when the community generally believed the answer was clear, the on-chain result was completely opposite.

More controversially, the officials admitted that voting was manipulated but maintained that 'rules are rules', insisting on not making modifications and watching major players turn the tide......

If this continues, how can PM's oracle mechanism truly win the community's trust? It is self-destructive.

The phenomenon of information arbitrage on Polymarket

An interesting phenomenon is that many pools on Polymarket hide opportunities for information arbitrage. Some odds have not been fully digested and are clearly lagging behind market news.

Especially in the case of air drops, even if you don't end up getting it, you can still benefit from the expected difference, with a reasonable level of certainty—taking Taiko as an example, founder Daniel Wang indicated in an exclusive interview last March:

"We will launch the mainnet in the first half of this year, and there is a specific time internally, but we don't want to say it publicly yet. Initial liquidity will be activated quickly after the mainnet launch, including air drops, but the specific date is not set, but it will be around May or June." This statement actually released a relatively clear time signal.

At that time, there was only about a 2-month window for "May or June," and it was the founder's own confirmation during the interview, which can almost be considered a high-probability event (over 80%). However, on Polymarket, the probability of a "Yes" for Taiko's Airdrop before June 30 was once only 45%.

Why is this the case? It may be because most people did not see the interview content, or it may take time for information to go from being publicly available to widely recognized—just like when we usually browse the news, an important piece of news often takes several hours or even days to truly influence people's judgments.

In other words, if you had bet "Yes" at that time, even if you did not get it in the end, you could still benefit from the expected difference, and if it eventually happened, it would mean gaining from 45% to 100% within 2 months, which is a very noteworthy type of event arbitrage.

Not only this type of project dynamics, but also recently, events with relatively high certainty in the real world, such as Lee Jae-myung's win rate, are similar. Regular tracking is a good observation and gaming window.

Open Source a USD24/USDC Arbitrage Observation

First, let’s briefly summarize the background. The Bank service launched by Fiat24 allows USDC (Arb) to be exchanged for USD24 (a fiat currency token) at a fixed rate of 1:1, and provides a MasterCard for spending.

However, most channels integrating this service, like IM and TP, generally charge a fee of 1% for the USDC → USD24 process. In other words, the actual exchange rate of USDC to USD24 is 1:0.99.

Interestingly, the wallet @SafePal has also integrated Fiat24's Bank service, but it refunds this 1%, meaning when you use USDC to exchange for USD24 in SafePal, the actual rate is 1:1, without loss.

At the same time, there happens to be a USD24/USDC pool on Arb, which often deviates from 1:1 due to supply and demand fluctuations, creating arbitrage opportunities:

When USD24/USDC > 1: Exchange USD24 at the official channel at 1:1, then swap for more USDC on-chain;
When USD24/USDC < 1: Exchange USD24 on-chain, then exchange for USDC at 1:1 through the official channel (note that Fiat24 charges a small fee of about 0.16 U per transaction);

In simple terms, as long as the pool deviates from 1:1, arbitrage can be executed, and the structure is clear and simple—official rates are constant, with no slippage, while the on-chain pool will always fluctuate. As long as it is not 1:1, there is often room for arbitrage.

Although the arbitrage opportunities are not large each time (0.2 U-2 U), they occur frequently. Recently, hardly anyone noticed this; I was the only one manually observing and executing every day. Recently, I saw a few friends also discovering it (suspected to be automated scripts executing), so from now on, it will depend on the speed of discovery and execution.

Tip:
1. Gas on Arb is almost negligible
2. Only SafePal channel is applicable; IM and TP do not work
3. The 1% refund from SafePal is in the form of a minimum 5 U, and it needs to be claimed regularly.

Further Reading: "SafePal 万事达卡的注册和使用保姆级教程"
"SafePal 实用手册：转账汇款、出入金券商/CEX，打通 Crypto 与 TradFi 的最全指南"

Inside News: More BTC may awaken in the second half of the year

As shown in the picture, if true, a large window for the disposal of confiscated BTC will open in the second half of this year

In addition to the price recovery, which allows many dormant BTC to be sold, the domestic monetization disposal mechanism is actually accelerating its implementation. Recently, an insider published an article clearly proposing the principle of "centralized disposal + official disposal":

Establish a monetization management platform to uniformly aggregate and settle, with the management platform carrying out centralized monetization disposal

From this perspective, the awakening wave of dormant BTC may just be beginning.