Chim Báo Bão

The Asian stock market opens "fiery" in the first trading session of the week 🔥🔥

- CSI 300 stock index (China): Decreased -243.58 points ~ over 6%.

Hang Seng stock index (Hong Kong): Decreased -2,500 points ~ nearly 11%

- Nikkei stock index (Japan): Decreased more than -2,200 points ~ over 7%

- VNindex stock index (Vietnam): Closed trading session (holiday).

👉 Currently, exchanges have restricted or temporarily suspended trading to alleviate the short-selling situation due to the panic of current investors.

Important news next week 🇺🇸 :
Mon: Empty News
Tue: Empty News
Wed: Empty News
Thu: FOMC Meeting Minutes 🇺🇸
Number of unemployment benefit applications 🇺🇸
CPI Inflation 🇺🇸
Fri: PPI Inflation 🇺🇸

Next week, data related to inflation (CPI and PPI) will be announced.

Everyone should just focus on these 2 pieces of data, as this is inflation data after Trump first imposed tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China.

Inflation may rise again due to Donald Trump's tariffs, however, the Fed has anticipated this; we just need to see how inflation in March will be.

Decrease in inflation => Investment market recovers

Increase in inflation => USD rises => However, it is still under the control of the FED => Investors may be a bit worried and the market may decline as the likelihood of an economic recession increases.

Stable inflation => Will be a good signal => Although Trump imposed retaliatory tariffs in March (not the recent tariff imposition), inflation did not rise (investors will be less concerned about the possibility of an economic recession).

We need to clearly observe the inflation data next week, to have a clearer perspective on the current inflation situation.

From Trump's tariff imposition in March, if inflation does not rise too high, then investors will not be too worried about Trump's recent retaliatory tariffs (3/4), but if inflation rises significantly, the opposite will happen...

Core PCE 🇺🇸 (m/m)
Previous: 0.3%
Forecast: 0.3%
Actual: 0.3%

Core PCE 🇺🇸 (y/y)
Previous: 2.6%
Forecast: 2.7%
Actual: 2.8%

PCE inflation remains unchanged this month. Core PCE increased slightly compared to the expectation of 2.7%.

The most important data this week, PCE Inflation (the Fed's preferred inflation measure) will be released at 7:30 PM tonight:

👉 The current forecast for monthly PCE (m/m) and Core PCE (m/m) is expected to remain unchanged at 0.3%.

👉 The year-on-year data (Core PCE y/y) is forecasted to slightly increase from 2.6% > 2.7%.

Previously, both CPI and PPI inflation recorded significant decreases in the last release, so I will stick to the possibility that PCE will also decrease rather than increase this month.

If PCE decreases, the market will recover after a significant drop earlier today, and this recovery could last until Saturday or possibly even until Sunday. Conversely, if PCE increases...

Final GDP Q4 (Final Revision) 🇺🇸
Previous: 2.3%
Forecast: 2.3%
Actual: 2.4%

Number of people applying for unemployment benefits last week 🇺🇸
Previous: 223K
Forecast: 225K
Actual: 224k

Not much change in this announcement.

Tonight, the 2 data points Final GDP Q4 and Weekly Unemployment Claims will be announced at 7:30 PM:

👉 Regarding the current forecast, both data points are not expected to change much compared to the previous announcement

I believe these 2 data points will not have too much impact on the market after being announced tonight. Therefore, the market will continue the current short-term trend and wait for more important data tomorrow (PCE Inflation).

Tonight there will be no additional important data. However, there is one piece of data we should pay attention to:

👉 Consumer Confidence Index - CB (March): The data is forecasted to continue declining this month (98.3 > 94.2) and remains below the reference level of 100 points.

👉 To put it simply, <100 points means consumer confidence is declining => Consumers reduce spending => The level of optimism about the economy is not high. This will support the FED in cutting interest rates, and the opposite will happen if >100 points.

Trump's Customs Tariff Series:

Recently, President Trump announced that any country purchasing oil from Venezuela 🇻🇪 will face a 25% tax on those countries when trading goods with the U.S.

👉 Note: This is just a threat from Mr. Trump; specific details will have to wait until April 2nd (This has also been mentioned in Hạc's most recent article)

President Trump toned down his rhetoric when he said, "I hope the FED will cut interest rates"

👉 Normally, he tries to appear tough, but Powell is the real "tough guy."

PMI Manufacturing 🇺🇸
Previous : 52.7
Forecast : 51.9
Actual : 49.8

PMI Services 🇺🇸
Previous : 51.0
Forecast : 51.2
Actual : 54.3

Overall, the data is still good, it will alleviate the predictions of a recession from investors. In the short term, the data is somewhat noisy as both datasets are not consistent with each other => Scan both ends

Michael Saylor - 'Strategy' continues to purchase an additional 6,911 BTC ~ $584 million 🔥🔥

👉 Currently, the total amount of Bitcoin that this company holds has officially surpassed the milestone of 500,000 (506,137 BTC)

What to read today???
Regarding the current short-term view, I still expect it to increase further. We will prioritize going Long from now until Thursday because there aren't many significant macroeconomic news during these days (excluding GDP as this is just a revision - explained in the Weekly Important News article)

During the weekends, we should sit out, here's why:

👉 Firstly, on Friday there is PCE inflation data; if the data deviates, it will cause investors to panic, and they will gradually take profits since it is the last trading session of the week (the market may decline).

👉 The second important thing to note is that during the weekends, it is very close to the day Trump announces the counter tariffs (April 2); the market will be affected by two sentiments: some still expect an increase and the market will ignore the tariffs, while others expect a decline because Trump's tariff policy is very stringent.

Therefore, it will be difficult for us to grasp the general sentiment of investors during that time => It is best to sit out and wait to see the results of the tariff policy.

Starting the new week - Metaplanet 🇯🇵 continues its DCA strategy and buys an additional 150 BTC.

👉 Raising the total amount of BTC that this company holds to 3,350 BTC

Important news next week 🇺🇸:
Monday: Services and Manufacturing PMI 🇺🇸
Tuesday: Empty News
Wednesday: Empty News
Thursday: Final GDP Q4 🇺🇸
Number of unemployment claims 🇺🇸
Friday: PCE 🇺🇸

Next week, we won't have too many important news items; the most important news of this week is that PCE Inflation (the Fed's preferred measure) will come on Friday (the last trading session of the week).

Regarding GDP, this is just the final revision of Q4 GDP, so it is not very significant and, of course, will not affect the market too much. We will only need to pay attention to 2 pieces of data:

- Monday's data related to the growth rate of the U.S. economy (PMI)
- Friday's PCE inflation data.

Note: A week with few news items often has FUD or bad news that affects the market; recently, there has been a tendency to use news to push prices, so everyone should be cautious.

This week's final trading session will not have any new macro data released.

Tổng Thống Hoa Kỳ - Donald Trump dự kiến sẽ có một buổi phát biểu tại Hội nghị Thượng đỉnh Tài sản Kỹ thuật số (Digital Asset Summit) do Blockworks được tổ chức tại New York vào hôm nay.

Tổng thống Trump đã phát biểu trong hội nghị "Cùng nhau chúng ta sẽ biến nước Mỹ trở thành siêu cường Bitcoin và thủ đô tiền điện tử của thế giới"

Ngoài ra, Tổng thống Trump còn kêu gọi Quốc hội thông qua dự luật về tiền điện tử ổn định.

👉 Lại sell the news à, sao cụ lại giảm vậy trời 🤔🤔

CZ ăn mừng đạt 10 triệu followers trên X

👉 Anh đã gửi lời cảm ơn đến cộng đồng Crypto vì đã đồng hành cùng với anh xuyên suốt chặng đường, mong thị trường Crypto ngày càng lớn mạnh.

👉 Kèm theo đó, anh cũng đính chính việc bản thân mình cmt "dạo" không có nghĩa là anh ủng hộ sáng kiến đó (shill memecoin).

Thế anh đổi ảnh đại điện như thế là không shill hả anh 🌚🌚

After the FED continued to keep interest rates unchanged, Trump has spoken out criticizing the lack of interest rate cuts to support the U.S. economy

👉 Currently, tensions between Trump and Powell are escalating as Trump believes the FED has not coordinated with his tax policies to boost the U.S. economy.

Russian Ministry of Defense: Kiev - Ukraine has attacked an energy infrastructure facility in the village of Kavkazskaya - Russia a few hours after the talks between Putin and Trump 🔥🔥

👉 Russia sees this as a deliberate provocative act aimed at undermining the peace initiatives of U.S. President - Trump.

With neither side willing to back down, this conflict seems far from over 🫠🫠