金天一
High-Frequency Trader
5.8 Months
不做地板空，不开山顶多，只在关键位交易.如果您觉得分享有用，点个关注。微博小红书：天一bit，同步分享
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Happy weekend to everyone $BTC
🙏 Recently, I've been reviewing and studying volume-price analysis and establishing a new trading system, so there have been fewer posts.
✅ As early as when Bitcoin was at 110,000, I mentioned that there would definitely be a 100,000 defense battle, and this week is the third time, and it will also be the last time. Subsequently, there will be a significant one-sided market 📈📉. If it goes down, I have mentioned several points in previous posts, four levels, so I won't elaborate here. At that time, I will also share the bottom-buying points for various altcoins.
✅ How to view the market next?
To be honest, at the support level, you have to take risks when necessary. Don't hesitate to enter just because you think it will drop below 100,000. Both long and short positions can be taken.
The Bitcoin level between 102,688 and 101,688 has been traded more than twice, right? You can continue to trade here. The short position above is around 104,500 to 105,500, and stop-loss can be easily set, either at the previous low or the previous high.
For Ethereum, the lower level is 2,358 to 2,318, and for aggressive traders, it's 2,388, with a short position to be initiated around 2,480.
✅ I estimate that there won't be many posts next week as I will be in seclusion 🫡
$ETH
🙏 Recently, I've been reviewing and studying volume-price analysis and establishing a new trading system, so there have been fewer posts.
✅ As early as when Bitcoin was at 110,000, I mentioned that there would definitely be a 100,000 defense battle, and this week is the third time, and it will also be the last time. Subsequently, there will be a significant one-sided market 📈📉. If it goes down, I have mentioned several points in previous posts, four levels, so I won't elaborate here. At that time, I will also share the bottom-buying points for various altcoins.
✅ How to view the market next?
To be honest, at the support level, you have to take risks when necessary. Don't hesitate to enter just because you think it will drop below 100,000. Both long and short positions can be taken.
The Bitcoin level between 102,688 and 101,688 has been traded more than twice, right? You can continue to trade here. The short position above is around 104,500 to 105,500, and stop-loss can be easily set, either at the previous low or the previous high.
For Ethereum, the lower level is 2,358 to 2,318, and for aggressive traders, it's 2,388, with a short position to be initiated around 2,480.
✅ I estimate that there won't be many posts next week as I will be in seclusion 🫡
$ETH
ETHUSDT
Long
Closed
PNL (USDT)
-501.99%
See original
$BTC
Old Bao's speech is no different from not speaking; market trading sentiment is sluggish.
What needed to be said has already been discussed in the past few days.
There's no need to participate in a trash market; patiently wait for the trend.
#鲍威尔发言
#加密概念美股
#美联储FOMC会议
$ETH
Old Bao's speech is no different from not speaking; market trading sentiment is sluggish.
What needed to be said has already been discussed in the past few days.
There's no need to participate in a trash market; patiently wait for the trend.
#鲍威尔发言
#加密概念美股
#美联储FOMC会议
$ETH
See original
Key Points Summary of the Federal Reserve FOMC Meeting on June 19, 2025
📉 1. Interest Rate Decision: Fourth consecutive pause on rate cuts
Maintained interest rates: The federal funds rate target range remains at 4.25%-4.50% (having maintained this stance for four consecutive meetings since December 2024).
Voting results: All members unanimously approved the resolution, with the addition of Kansas City Fed President Schmid voting (replacing Kashkari), no objections.
📖 2. Key Changes in Policy Statement
Economic uncertainty lessens: Revised the statement from 'economic outlook uncertainty has further increased in May' to 'uncertainty has decreased, but remains high'.
Removed risk warning: Removed the statement that 'risks of rising unemployment and inflation have increased', suggesting short-term pressures have eased.
Maintained interest rates: The federal funds rate target range remains at 4.25%-4.50% (having maintained this stance for four consecutive meetings since December 2024).
Voting results: All members unanimously approved the resolution, with the addition of Kansas City Fed President Schmid voting (replacing Kashkari), no objections.
📖 2. Key Changes in Policy Statement
Economic uncertainty lessens: Revised the statement from 'economic outlook uncertainty has further increased in May' to 'uncertainty has decreased, but remains high'.
Removed risk warning: Removed the statement that 'risks of rising unemployment and inflation have increased', suggesting short-term pressures have eased.
See original
The (GENIUS Act) was voted through today. Will it become law?
#GENIUS稳定币法案
(GENIUS Act)'s passage marks an important milestone in the history of cryptocurrency regulation in the U.S. If it becomes law, its impact will profoundly reshape the landscape of the crypto industry while laying the groundwork for the role of stablecoins in the future financial system.
One, the core impact of the (GENIUS Act)
1. Regulatory framework clarified for the first time
The bill defines stablecoin issuers as 'licensed payment stablecoin issuers', requiring them to hold 100% high-quality liquid assets (such as cash and government bonds) as reserves and undergo regular audits.
Impact: Eliminates regulatory gray areas, compliant companies gain a legal moat, while projects with opaque reserves or algorithmic stablecoins will face elimination.
(GENIUS Act)'s passage marks an important milestone in the history of cryptocurrency regulation in the U.S. If it becomes law, its impact will profoundly reshape the landscape of the crypto industry while laying the groundwork for the role of stablecoins in the future financial system.
One, the core impact of the (GENIUS Act)
1. Regulatory framework clarified for the first time
The bill defines stablecoin issuers as 'licensed payment stablecoin issuers', requiring them to hold 100% high-quality liquid assets (such as cash and government bonds) as reserves and undergo regular audits.
Impact: Eliminates regulatory gray areas, compliant companies gain a legal moat, while projects with opaque reserves or algorithmic stablecoins will face elimination.
See original
$BTC Big Pie Long Position Stop Loss 888 Points, Short Position Profit
After observing resistance, directly open a short position on the right side, whether it's shorting Ethereum or shorting Big Pie, the profit will definitely exceed these 888 points.
🤬 The upcoming trend is going to be very awkward, I don't know if 100k can hold. I originally wanted to roll over the long position, but now I have to roll over to a short position?
#美联储FOMC会议
#以色列伊朗冲突
#特朗普比特币金库
$ETH
After observing resistance, directly open a short position on the right side, whether it's shorting Ethereum or shorting Big Pie, the profit will definitely exceed these 888 points.
🤬 The upcoming trend is going to be very awkward, I don't know if 100k can hold. I originally wanted to roll over the long position, but now I have to roll over to a short position?
#美联储FOMC会议
#以色列伊朗冲突
#特朗普比特币金库
$ETH
See original
The Suspense of the Fed's Rate Cut in June: The Difficult Choice Between Economic Slowdown and Inflation Pressure
#美联储FOMC会议 The results of the Federal Reserve's June FOMC meeting are about to be revealed. After starting a rate cut cycle in December 2024, the Fed has kept rates unchanged at the **4.25%-4.50% range** for two consecutive meetings. The upcoming meeting on June 18-19 is becoming the most critical watershed for monetary policy in 2025.
1️⃣ Policy Background: A Stagnant Easing Cycle
Since the first rate cut in four years starting in September 2024, the Fed's monetary policy trajectory in 2025 shows a clear stagnation:
- Interest Rate Stalemate: After pausing rate cuts in March, the May meeting again kept rates unchanged, setting a record of three consecutive meetings without action.
1️⃣ Policy Background: A Stagnant Easing Cycle
Since the first rate cut in four years starting in September 2024, the Fed's monetary policy trajectory in 2025 shows a clear stagnation:
- Interest Rate Stalemate: After pausing rate cuts in March, the May meeting again kept rates unchanged, setting a record of three consecutive meetings without action.
See original
Why in trading, trend > structure > levels
In trading, the core of the concept ‘trend > structure > levels’ lies in **the priority management of risk and return**, reflecting the weight of different levels of market information on trading decisions. The following is a detailed explanation:
---
One, Trend (maximum weight): The market's overall direction
Why is it the most important?
1. Market momentum concentration
The trend represents the medium to long-term consensus of market funds (the direction of institutions and major funds). Trend-following trading means ‘borrowing the force of the trend’, resulting in a naturally higher success rate.
For example: In a bull market, even if bought at a high point, the continuation of the trend can lead to profit; in a bear market, seizing rebounds is like ‘catching a flying knife with empty hands.’
---
One, Trend (maximum weight): The market's overall direction
Why is it the most important?
1. Market momentum concentration
The trend represents the medium to long-term consensus of market funds (the direction of institutions and major funds). Trend-following trading means ‘borrowing the force of the trend’, resulting in a naturally higher success rate.
For example: In a bull market, even if bought at a high point, the continuation of the trend can lead to profit; in a bear market, seizing rebounds is like ‘catching a flying knife with empty hands.’
See original
Vegas Tunnel Trading Guide: A Trend Tool Integrating Fibonacci and Moving Averages
In the vast ocean of technical analysis, the Vegas Tunnel, with its unique parameter design and clear trading logic, has become an efficient tool for identifying trends and capturing breakouts. This system cleverly combines the Fibonacci sequence with exponential moving averages (EMA), providing traders with a complete solution from directional judgment to entry and exit management.
I. Core principles: Fibonacci sequence and dynamic channels.
The core components of the Vegas Tunnel are three special exponential moving averages:
- 144EMA and 169EMA: Form the boundaries of the 'tunnel', representing support and resistance levels, respectively. These two parameters are derived from the Fibonacci sequence (144 is the square of 12, and 169 is the square of 13), conforming to Gann theory's emphasis on the 'square' of numbers, which can better reflect the medium-term market rhythm.
I. Core principles: Fibonacci sequence and dynamic channels.
The core components of the Vegas Tunnel are three special exponential moving averages:
- 144EMA and 169EMA: Form the boundaries of the 'tunnel', representing support and resistance levels, respectively. These two parameters are derived from the Fibonacci sequence (144 is the square of 12, and 169 is the square of 13), conforming to Gann theory's emphasis on the 'square' of numbers, which can better reflect the medium-term market rhythm.
See original
$BTC
Yesterday, Iran launched three missiles at Israel, which directly caused the price of Bitcoin to drop.
The long position at 106600 was secured after taking profit at 108300.
✅ What's next?
106000 has become the dividing line between bulls and bears. If it holds, it will challenge new highs again; if it breaks, it will test the 100k level again.
⚠️ It is important to note that this will end the high-level consolidation, leading to a trending direction. If it holds above 110k, it is likely to break, looking towards the 120k area. If it breaks below the 100k support, it is likely to struggle, looking down towards the 98k-93k area.
✅ Personally, I think this evening's drop is a technical correction. I plan to place a long order at 106888 with a stop loss of 888 points, attempting a small position with minimal risk. After observing resistance following a breakout, I will look to open a short position on the right side.
#币安HODLer空投SPK
#以色列伊朗冲突
#加密市场反弹
#特朗普比特币金库
Yesterday, Iran launched three missiles at Israel, which directly caused the price of Bitcoin to drop.
The long position at 106600 was secured after taking profit at 108300.
✅ What's next?
106000 has become the dividing line between bulls and bears. If it holds, it will challenge new highs again; if it breaks, it will test the 100k level again.
⚠️ It is important to note that this will end the high-level consolidation, leading to a trending direction. If it holds above 110k, it is likely to break, looking towards the 120k area. If it breaks below the 100k support, it is likely to struggle, looking down towards the 98k-93k area.
✅ Personally, I think this evening's drop is a technical correction. I plan to place a long order at 106888 with a stop loss of 888 points, attempting a small position with minimal risk. After observing resistance following a breakout, I will look to open a short position on the right side.
#币安HODLer空投SPK
#以色列伊朗冲突
#加密市场反弹
#特朗普比特币金库
See original
What is the Primary Market and What is the Secondary Market?
The primary and secondary markets form the complete life chain of tokens from their creation to circulation.
*Primary Market:** This is where tokens **are first created and sold** to early investors (usually institutions or specific qualified investors). This occurs before the tokens are listed on public exchanges.
*Secondary Market:** This is where tokens **are freely traded among investors**. This is what we usually refer to as cryptocurrency exchanges (such as Binance, Coinbase, Uniswap, etc.). Here, the real-time market price of tokens is determined.
Below is a more in-depth analysis:
See original
Fibonacci Sequence: The 'Golden Compass' in the Trading Market
Behind the mysterious sequence discovered by the 13th-century Italian mathematician Fibonacci lies the ubiquitous golden ratio in nature. When this mathematical miracle meets the modern financial market, it gives birth to a highly attractive tool in technical analysis — Fibonacci ratio analysis. It serves as a 'golden compass' for interpreting price fluctuations, guiding traders on the depth of trend pullbacks, bounce potential, and potential turning areas.
I. The intersection of natural laws and market rhythms: The mystery of the Fibonacci sequence.
The Fibonacci sequence begins with 0 and 1, and each subsequent number is the sum of the previous two: 0, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144...
I. The intersection of natural laws and market rhythms: The mystery of the Fibonacci sequence.
The Fibonacci sequence begins with 0 and 1, and each subsequent number is the sum of the previous two: 0, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144...
See original
Left-Side Trading vs Right-Side Trading: The Investment Duel of the Contrarian and the Trend Rider
In the turbulent waves of financial markets, when traders choose to 'bet' determines distinctly different navigation paths. Left-side trading and right-side trading, these two core strategies are like the two poles of a compass, guiding investors through market fog. Understanding their essence and applicable scenarios is the key cornerstone to building a mature trading system.
1. Left-Side Trading: The 'Value Hunter' of contrarian layout
Core Philosophy: Believe that 'when others are fearful, I am greedy; when others are greedy, I am fearful'. In a downtrend, buy in batches when believing the asset is undervalued; in an uptrend, sell in batches when believing the asset is overvalued. The essence is to operate against the current trend, predicting an imminent reversal.
1. Left-Side Trading: The 'Value Hunter' of contrarian layout
Core Philosophy: Believe that 'when others are fearful, I am greedy; when others are greedy, I am fearful'. In a downtrend, buy in batches when believing the asset is undervalued; in an uptrend, sell in batches when believing the asset is overvalued. The essence is to operate against the current trend, predicting an imminent reversal.
See original
$BTC
✅Those who couldn't cancel their orders by midnight yesterday, there was an entry error of 200u for 103488, the highest rise was over 1000 points, it is recommended to set a stop-loss at breakeven, no need to take profit, if it breaks 106600 continue to add positions, looking for new highs
⚠️If it breaks down and hits the stop-loss, I think it may not hold at 100k, it is recommended to enter on the right side
#以色列伊朗冲突
#卡尔达诺稳定币提案
#币安HODLer空投HOME
✅Those who couldn't cancel their orders by midnight yesterday, there was an entry error of 200u for 103488, the highest rise was over 1000 points, it is recommended to set a stop-loss at breakeven, no need to take profit, if it breaks 106600 continue to add positions, looking for new highs
⚠️If it breaks down and hits the stop-loss, I think it may not hold at 100k, it is recommended to enter on the right side
#以色列伊朗冲突
#卡尔达诺稳定币提案
#币安HODLer空投HOME
BTCUSDT
Long
Closed
PNL (USDT)
+18.70%
See original
$BTC
The trend shows signs of deterioration, it is recommended to cancel all left-side long positions and switch to entering long positions on the right side😅
#卡尔达诺稳定币提案
#以色列伊朗冲突
#币安Alpha理财中心
The trend shows signs of deterioration, it is recommended to cancel all left-side long positions and switch to entering long positions on the right side😅
#卡尔达诺稳定币提案
#以色列伊朗冲突
#币安Alpha理财中心
See original
$BTC
If Bitcoin drops below 100,000, there are the following four supports for your reference⬇️
Of course, I certainly hope it doesn't drop😜
#卡尔达诺稳定币提案
#以色列伊朗冲突
If Bitcoin drops below 100,000, there are the following four supports for your reference⬇️
Of course, I certainly hope it doesn't drop😜
#卡尔达诺稳定币提案
#以色列伊朗冲突
See original
The following is AI's prediction for next week's trend, with last week's prediction of a strategy from June 12 having a win rate of 0%, haha, let's see if next week's prediction is accurate.
### ⚖️ I. Current Market Background Review (June 9-13)
1. Geopolitical shocks
- Israeli airstrikes on Iran have triggered a global risk-off sentiment, with Bitcoin plunging over 4% in a single day, briefly falling below $103,000, causing $1.16 billion in liquidations for 250,000 people within 24 hours.
- The 'weekend effect' of the Middle East conflict may continue; if the situation worsens, Bitcoin may test the psychological level of $100,000; if it eases, a technical rebound may occur.
2. Macro and policy pressures
- The Federal Reserve's June 18th FOMC meeting is expected to maintain interest rates (4.25%-4.50%) with a 99.8% probability, delaying rate cuts until September, suppressing risk asset momentum.
1. Geopolitical shocks
- Israeli airstrikes on Iran have triggered a global risk-off sentiment, with Bitcoin plunging over 4% in a single day, briefly falling below $103,000, causing $1.16 billion in liquidations for 250,000 people within 24 hours.
- The 'weekend effect' of the Middle East conflict may continue; if the situation worsens, Bitcoin may test the psychological level of $100,000; if it eases, a technical rebound may occur.
2. Macro and policy pressures
- The Federal Reserve's June 18th FOMC meeting is expected to maintain interest rates (4.25%-4.50%) with a 99.8% probability, delaying rate cuts until September, suppressing risk asset momentum.
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The U.S. national debt has hit a record high of $37 trillion, with 25% of tax revenue now going to interest payments. This renews concerns about inflation, long-term fiscal stability, and the future of the U.S. dollar.
💬 How do you think this will impact crypto markets — Will more investors turn to BTC and stablecoins as alternatives, or will it impact all risk assets? How are you positioning your portfolio?
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