theanabioz

📍llkThe market has entered an irrational phase, where arguments abound, but the momentum is driven more by hindsight. At the beginning of the year, there were many reasons to target $60,000 for BTC, with optimism around a vitalizing ETF and a Federal Reserve rate cut. The discussions included miners and hash rates, yet the market didn't surge as it does now. In the current phase, it seems arguments are unnecessary; it's simply about buying.

The Coinbase glitch likely triggered yesterday's Flash Crash. However, users on Binance, ByBit, and OKX may not have experienced the same intensity seen on smaller exchanges, especially decentralized ones offering leveraged trading.

In DEX platforms where oracles and liquidity pools shape the market, significant drops occurred; PEPE fell by 70%, MINA by 64%, and many others suffered. Trading halts with peculiar rules added complexity. DEX incidents bring to mind traditional exchanges like the Moscow Exchange (MMVB) with its "planks" and manual interventions. Amid squeezes, order chaos, oracle errors, predicting all scenarios in a smart contract becomes challenging.

✔️News
Macroeconomics currently seems irrelevant to the cryptocurrency market. Positive inflation statistics had no impact, whereas the stock market reacted positively to similar data.

The major SHIDO hack resulted in scammers taking almost half of the project's tokens, causing an immediate 95% drop in its value.

✔️Baseline Scenario
Anticipate growth to historical BTC highs, followed by a substantial correction.

✔️Today's Long Ideas
Meme coins, including longstanding GameFI tokens like MANA and SAND, might be among the first to undergo corrections.

Yesterday's idea for Solana was excellent, but given the powerful squeeze, holding stops might be challenging.

Today's suggestion: Buy BLZ
Break-even at $0.415, Stop at $0.33447, Take-profit at $0.48103.
Not a trading recommendation.
#cryptoreview

Summary of the cryptocurrency market 26.02.2024

📍ETH showed significant growth, with Justin Sun (founder of Tron) purchasing over $47 million worth of ETH this week. BTC continues to experience outflows from exchanges, with remaining BTC on exchanges at the lowest levels in 2022 – typically a bullish signal as holders prefer keeping BTC in wallets.

Altcoins exhibited high volatility today, creating a favorable environment for speculation. Worldcoin is approaching a $100 billion market capitalization. Derivatives open interest is soaring, but due to a strong AI trend, a shoulder reset is anticipated. Open interest exceeds $300 million, potentially leading to a sharp 10-15% surge or a 15-20% correction.

BLUR surged recently amid expectations of increased marketplace fee sharing with BLUR token holders and the upcoming Blast launch related to BLUR. The $0.85 mark poses a significant resistance level.

✔️ News:
Uniswap awaits SEC reaction to its fee initiative, noting that Uniswap is registered in the USA. The upcoming week may see a slowdown in UNI growth.

✔️ Base Scenario:
Expecting BTC at $51,000 and ETH below $3,000 tomorrow. Selective altcoins may continue hitting new highs. Attention should shift to local stories to understand the drivers behind the growth.

✔️ Today's Long:
NEAR demonstrated strong weekend growth and is likely to outperform the market next week. ARB-related projects will announce news, making ARB a better choice.

✔️ Short:
Closed API3 short at a breakeven stop. Holding a FIL short with a small loss, involving partial closure and additional purchases within specified levels.

✔️ Today's Idea:
Short AR when reaching $16.709, move stop to breakeven at $15.2, stop at $18.254 (beyond November 2023 high), take-profit at $13.812. Not a trading recommendation. #cryptoreview #market

Tom Lee, co-founder of the analytical firm Fundstrat, predicts that by the end of 2024, the price of Bitcoin will reach $150,000.

He expressed this opinion in an interview with CNBC. According to Lee, despite the near-term prospects that do not anticipate corrections in the cryptocurrency market, in the long term, he reaffirms his January forecast for Bitcoin, stating that digital gold will reach $500,000 within a five-year period. He also emphasizes that Bitcoin is reliable money, proving its usefulness as a store of value and a risky asset that remains incredibly secure12.

In 2024, the quotes for the first cryptocurrency are expected to reach the $150,000 mark, as predicted by Tom Lee, co-founder of the analytical firm Fundstrat. Lee explains that factors such as ETF demand, halving reducing supply, and monetary policy easing support risky assets and Bitcoin. He also reiterates his long-term forecast of Bitcoin reaching $500,000 within five years.

Lee underscores that Bitcoin is reliable money and serves as an excellent store of value while remaining remarkably secure. Notably, there has not been a single fraudulent transaction on the blockchain since the creation of the first cryptocurrency. Earlier, Matrixport analysts predicted Bitcoin’s rise to $63,000 in March, and Pantera Capital specialists forecasted digital gold at $147,000 in 2025. 

Bitcoin pioneer Tuur Demeester speculated that by 2026, the first cryptocurrency would reach the $600,000$BTC

The volume of non-fungible tokens (NFTs) sold on the Solana network has reached a milestone of $5 billion over its entire history. Of this, $217 million was traded in the last 30 days, according to CryptoSlam.

December 2023 became the second-highest month in NFT sales volume on Solana’s history, following October 2021 with sales of $365 million and $373 million, respectively.
According to CryptoSlam, the network has seen over 2.2 million buyers and 1.6 million sellers of NFTs. The total number of NFT transactions has exceeded 43 million.

These metrics surged at the end of 2023 due to the growth of the Solana cryptocurrency, which reached above $118. As of now, the SOL token is trading at $102, and the project’s market capitalization stands at $45 billion, according to CoinGecko.
In early 2024, the daily transaction volume on the Solana blockchain surpassed $40 billion, reaching the highest level since October 2022.

It’s worth noting that on February 6, there was another network outage. Experts attributed these periodic issues to the blockchain’s inability to handle the growing transaction volume.

Just one line to understand the BTC cycle 🍸

The 1Y+ HODL Wave indicator is a simplified version of the HODL Waves. Unlike the latter, it tracks only one group of coins that haven’t moved for over a year.
The data for the 1Y+ HODL Wave is directly taken from the Bitcoin blockchain, and its concept is based on the idea of “smart money.” When long-term investors sell their coins during growth to newcomers and then buy them back at a lower price during the bear market 😇.

How it works:
▪️ Indicator line going down: Indicates the market is in the final growth stage. ▪️ Indicator line reversing and rising: Suggests the cycle peak has passed, and the bear market has begun. ▪️ Relatively horizontal segments of the indicator: Point to uncertainty and accumulation phases.

Current situation:
According to the 1Y+ HODL Wave, hodlers are hardly selling, which means we haven’t yet entered the final stage of parabolic growth. “Smart money” anticipates a much higher BTC price in the long term."

Cryptocurrency Market Overview 25.02.2024

📍ETH and BTC continue to consolidate, and this spring might burst—probably by Monday or Tuesday. In the altcoin space, there’s a fireworks display today, with many double-digit growth figures.
Currently, many have decided that it’s an excellent idea to take fees from liquidity providers in liquidity pools and allocate part of these funds as rewards to token holders in DAOs. However, many haven’t realized that liquidity providers will vote with their feet, fleeing to other projects due to reduced profitability. We’re still in the phase of realizing that the idea isn’t as brilliant, but the growth in DeFi persists.
Macroeconomic prospects may not be perceived positively by investors after the weekend. The Chinese market is jittery, and Nvidia’s enthusiasm will gradually wane as restrictions on deliveries to China become clear, impacting the company’s future reports and interim data.

✔️ News
The AVAX network was down for 5 hours.

✔️ Base Scenario
Tomorrow, I expect a much calmer day in the altcoins. BTC and ETH should remain around the same levels. +/- 1-2%.

✔️ Long Positions Today
Be cautious with JASMY; DWF Lab is involved. The token might fly up by double digits, and yes, a pullback is possible. However, there won’t be any long-term growth in it.

✔️ Short Positions I’m Holding
I’m holding a short position in API3 (source). It’s been profitable.I’m also holding a short position in FIL (source), despite Arthur Hayes predicting FIL at $100 in the near future.

✔️ No New Ideas Today
Instead, I suggest looking at the JASMY chart. I believe something like this awaits us.

$JAMSY

🚨 Emergency Update 🚨

#BTC
Should Bitcoin surpass the $50,000 mark, significant metrics indicate minimal resistance towards reaching $52,000 and $58,000, potentially triggering a significant short squeeze. This event would force those holding short positions to liquidate, further propelling the price upward. However, the upcoming inflation report on Tuesday could lead to a market adjustment, as its outcomes may affect investor sentiment and the broader market dynamics.

The recent surge in Bitcoin's value past $50,000 can be credited to the green light given to Wall Street ETFs, leading to a spike in institutional interest. This influx of investment has fueled Bitcoin's upward trend, with anticipations of continued growth.

As Bitcoin remains in the spotlight on Wall Street, investors are keenly observing for more news and potential upward trajectories, albeit with possible downturns on the horizon.

In the last 24 hours, Bitcoin's value has increased by over 3.4%, maintaining a 16% increase over the past week.

#DYM #PIXEL #PYTH #TrendingTopic

Double Top and Rising Wedge on BTC-USDT.P
#BTCUSDT.P $BTC

Whales are Highly Active!

At the end of October and until mid-November, one of the whales was buying about 250 BTC almost every day!

In total, they accumulated 5000 BTC!

Currently, the address is in a substantial profit.

Applying Stock Market Metrics to the Crypto Market and Being Amazed

Today I will try to surprise you. Stocks are often valued based on the Price to Earnings (P/E) ratio, which is the price compared to the generated income (profit). In the context of blockchains, it’s more appropriate to compare this with the Price to Sales (P/S) ratio, which is the relationship between the stock price and revenue.

✔️ Let’s take a couple of successful American stocks. Such stocks often trade at high P/E and P/S ratios.
NVIDIA, the largest chip manufacturer on the planet: maximum P/S over the last 20 years ~ 35 and P/E ~89.
Coca-Cola: P/S ~ 6 and P/E ~34.
Alphabet (Google): P/S ~ 7 and P/E ~77.

✔️ Now, let’s look at Layer-1 blockchains.
We’ll assess them based on the metric: Price of circulating tokens and generated commission (P/F).
The chart and diagram are at the top. I specifically chose the price of circulating coins because if we consider all coins, the indicators are even more alarming.

Except for Tron, everything seems excessively expensive. Cardano’s price to commission ratio (P/F) is over 5000, and Solana’s is 669.

✔️ Separately, let’s look at P/S and P/F for DEXs. 👆
The ratio of the price of circulating tokens and generated income. For instance, the hacked Kyberswap looks ridiculous at current prices.
Here, the situation is more or less similar to real business.

📍 This is something to consider for everyone who predicts a 100x for altcoins and discusses what everything should fairly be worth. The influx of money from TradFi into the cryptocurrency market creates hype and Bull Runs. While BTC is perceived as digital gold, many view altcoins as an alternative to stocks.

Daily Cryptocurrency Market Overview

📍BTC and ETH are hitting yearly highs again and showing significant growth. On Binance and ByBit spot markets for BTC, there are ladders of huge limit orders for buying, which doesn't seem like stop orders because the volume of new limit orders for buying in the last few hours exceeds the buy delta volume for BTC. This suggests that whales are ready to push the price even higher.

The most optimistic assumption for BTC's growth target is the $45,500 - 45,800 zone.

Currently, there's a lot of talk about gold, which has seen a 4% drop, and speculation that major insiders know something.

✔️News
Currently, any positive news makes headlines, while negative news is ignored. The news feed looks like a Christmas tree with beautiful ornaments and ribbons:
- BTC's market capitalization surpassed Berkshire Hathaway (Buffett's company) and exceeded $800 billion.
- BTC almost returned to pre-Terra crash levels.
- Jenny Johnson, CEO of one of the world's largest management companies Franklin Templeton, personally invested in cryptocurrencies, including BTC, ETH, UNI, SUSHI.
- Data from the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, a benchmark sentiment indicator, already show greed levels at highs not seen since November 2021, when Bitcoin set its last historical high.

✔️Base Scenario
ETH has already exceeded all its targets, now it will follow BTC, I believe its individual play is over for some time.
No need to short BTC yet, the next volatility boom is likely at 3 AM Moscow time.

✔️What to long today
PEPE exceeded all targets and brutally cleared out all leveraged shorts. I couldn't sell it very high due to volatility.
In FLM, mass liquidations of longs happened at 14:00, it's worth trying a long again.

✔️Longing MATIC is profitable, holding but moving stop to break-even. Short on BIGTIME closed at stop.

✔️Today's idea: short SUPER at $0.6785
Move stop to break-even at $0.62
Stop: $0.7457
Take-profit: $0.5142

Not a trading recommendation
$BTC $ETH $UNI

The CEO of Franklin Templeton named four assets in her crypto portfolio.

Franklin Templeton is an investment fund with over $700 billion under management.

Jenny Johnson has invested in Bitcoin, Ethereum, UNI tokens, and SUSHI.

She does not invest in NFTs and prefers 'mature investments'.

This is not a trading recommendation.

News often comes out that Microstrategy has purchased another batch of Bitcoins worth several hundred million dollars. Sometimes this event is tied to an alleged upcoming market rise. But in fact, the chart shows that the main Bitcoin whale makes purchases regardless of market conditions. Many of these were even made at the highest peaks. They just consistently buy and nothing more. It's strange that someone is closely following the purchase dates.
$BTC

Top unlocks for the upcoming week:

Cheelee - $43.12M
STEPN - $28.34M
Ethereum Name Service - $13.00M
KAP Games - $10.18M
Myria - $6.91M
ChainGPT - $6.56M
Hashflow - $5.29M

Cryptocurrency Market Overview

BTC and ETH are updating their yearly highs and remain in the region of the achieved highs. I mistakenly thought that $2140 for ETH would not be reached over the weekend. But after such a move, it’s likely that we won’t see a pullback by noon on Monday, since the rise occurred without the Americans. Releasing so many people stuck in shorts would be too generous now. In the futures, shorts are still dominating in most exchanges across all major coins, so there was no capitulation from the bears.

Next week will be much more vibrant in terms of macroeconomic events: the U.S. services inflation report and the Nonfarm Payroll labor market report. The quiet period before the Federal Reserve meeting is beginning.

News:

Nayib Bukele, the president of El Salvador, who introduced BTC as a means of payment and made a dramatic bet on cryptocurrency for the development of El Salvador’s economy, seems to be following the favorite scenario of authoritarian politicians by cutting corners. He is resigning more than 6 months before the end of his presidential term to run in extraordinary elections again.
In El Salvador, consecutive presidential terms are prohibited, i.e., one cannot be elected president twice in a row, unless the president resigned from the previous post more than 6 months earlier. All this sounds painfully familiar, doesn’t it?

Base Scenario:

Some correction in BTC can be expected, but likely only after $40,000, although the market movement from 15:30 to 17:30 will be interesting to watch, as US traders react to this growth.

Long Today

PEPE is likely heading to take autumn highs.

Long on MATIC is profitable, holding it, but moving the stop to breakeven. Short on HFT closed at a stop. Closing Long OP manually at $1.712. Long COMP closed at a stop moved to breakeven.

Today’s Idea:

short BIGTIME 50% at the current price, and 50% upon reaching $0.4548
Move the stop to breakeven upon reaching $0.4
Stop: $0.4846
Take-profit: $0.3391 - 50% and upon reaching $0.3716 secure 50% profit

This is not a trading recommendation