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The market has been in a state of 'extreme panic' for two consecutive weeks. For most of December, market sentiment has hovered near low levels. There are differing opinions among industry analysts regarding Bitcoin's performance in 2026.
PlanC believes that Bitcoin has never experienced consecutive annual declines, so a bull market is expected next year.
Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan is also optimistic about Bitcoin's growth prospects next year.
On the other hand, veteran trader Peter Brandt and Fidelity's Global Macro Research Director Jurrien Timmer believe that 2026 could be a 'dismal year' for Bitcoin, predicting that prices could fall to a range of $60,000 to $65,000.
This series of viewpoints reflects the uncertainty in the market and differing opinions on future trends. #加密市场观察
PlanC believes that Bitcoin has never experienced consecutive annual declines, so a bull market is expected next year.
Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan is also optimistic about Bitcoin's growth prospects next year.
On the other hand, veteran trader Peter Brandt and Fidelity's Global Macro Research Director Jurrien Timmer believe that 2026 could be a 'dismal year' for Bitcoin, predicting that prices could fall to a range of $60,000 to $65,000.
This series of viewpoints reflects the uncertainty in the market and differing opinions on future trends. #加密市场观察
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According to Lookonchain's monitoring, trader pension-usdt.eth has accumulated profits exceeding 25 million USD and has completed a transition from long to short. He closed out his previous long position in ETH, making a profit of 278,000 USD, and then shorted 20,000 ETH with 3x leverage, valued at approximately 58.44 million USD. #加密市场观察
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Between Risk and Efficiency: In-Depth Analysis of Falcon Finance's Over-Collateralization Model
Recently studying stablecoin protocols, I discovered that Falcon Finance's over-collateralization model has some counterintuitive designs. Most people in the market are pursuing maximum capital efficiency, eager for $100 of collateral to mint $200 of stablecoins, but Falcon goes against the tide, insisting on an over-collateralization rate of 111%. Data from December 26 shows that $2.47 billion in reserves supports a circulation of $2.225 billion USDF. What logic lies behind this seemingly 'wasteful' capital efficiency?
While reviewing the reserve composition, I noticed an interesting detail. BTC accounts for 56.2%, about $1.38 billion, which acts as the stabilizer for the entire system. However, in addition to native BTC, the protocol also allocated 13.3% MBTC and 11.3% ENZOBTC, both of which are interest-bearing derivatives of BTC. This means that while maintaining BTC exposure, the protocol earns additional income through asset wrapping, effectively finding a balance between stability and yield.
While reviewing the reserve composition, I noticed an interesting detail. BTC accounts for 56.2%, about $1.38 billion, which acts as the stabilizer for the entire system. However, in addition to native BTC, the protocol also allocated 13.3% MBTC and 11.3% ENZOBTC, both of which are interest-bearing derivatives of BTC. This means that while maintaining BTC exposure, the protocol earns additional income through asset wrapping, effectively finding a balance between stability and yield.
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In the recent AMA event, Lighter market head Pilla.eth shared some details about the Token Generation Event (TGE), with the main content as follows:
Time: The Token Generation (TGE) and airdrop will take place in 2025.
Airdrop ratio: The airdrop will account for 25% of the total supply, with no lock-up period.
Claim process: Tokens will be directly distributed to the Lighter wallets of point holders, and users will not need to perform any claim actions.
Token economic model: Details of the token economic model will be gradually announced, with 50% of the token supply allocated to the community.
Buyback plan: A buyback will take place, but the specific amount has not yet been determined.
NFT related: There will be no official Lighter NFT, but there will be some community NFTs. Meanwhile, the airdrop of Meme coins is a rumor.
This information provides important references for the future development of Lighter, especially for holders and potential investors. #加密市场观察
Time: The Token Generation (TGE) and airdrop will take place in 2025.
Airdrop ratio: The airdrop will account for 25% of the total supply, with no lock-up period.
Claim process: Tokens will be directly distributed to the Lighter wallets of point holders, and users will not need to perform any claim actions.
Token economic model: Details of the token economic model will be gradually announced, with 50% of the token supply allocated to the community.
Buyback plan: A buyback will take place, but the specific amount has not yet been determined.
NFT related: There will be no official Lighter NFT, but there will be some community NFTs. Meanwhile, the airdrop of Meme coins is a rumor.
This information provides important references for the future development of Lighter, especially for holders and potential investors. #加密市场观察
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According to on-chain analyst Yu Jin's monitoring, the Ethereum treasury company Bitmine recently staked its held ETH to earn interest income. About 50 minutes ago, Bitmine deposited 74,880 ETH (worth approximately $219 million) into Ethereum's Proof of Stake (PoS) staking. This is Bitmine's first staking, and currently, it holds a total of 4.066 million ETH, with an annual percentage yield (APY) of about 3.12%. If Bitmine stakes all of its ETH, it is expected to earn approximately 126,800 ETH in interest within a year, valued at about $371 million at the current price of $2,927.
#巨鲸
#巨鲸
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According to Onchain Lens monitoring, a giant whale investor spent 1,086 ETH (approximately $3.17 million) to purchase 20,375 AAVE. In the past 4 days, this whale spent another 1,586 ETH (approximately $4.70 million), buying 30,003 AAVE at a price of $156.65 each. Currently, this whale's total holdings have reached 59,955 AAVE, worth approximately $9.24 million, but faces a loss of $4.26 million. #美联储回购协议计划
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According to reports from the Financial Associated Press, the three major U.S. stock indices all experienced slight declines at the close. The Nasdaq index fell by 0.09%, with a cumulative increase of 1.22% this week; the Dow Jones index fell by 0.04%, with a cumulative increase of 1.2% this week; the S&P 500 index fell by 0.03%, with a cumulative increase of 1.4% this week.
In the commodity market, spot silver rose by 10% intraday, breaking through $79 per ounce, with a year-to-date increase of over 173%. Spot gold rose by 1.12%, reported at $4531.1 per ounce, with a cumulative increase of 4.44% this week.
In the blockchain concept stocks, most stocks declined. Strategy (MSTR) rose by 0.06%, while another Strategy (MSTR) fell by 1.18%; Twenty One Capital (XXI) fell by 1.36%; Circle (CRCL) fell by 1.66%. #美股休市
In the commodity market, spot silver rose by 10% intraday, breaking through $79 per ounce, with a year-to-date increase of over 173%. Spot gold rose by 1.12%, reported at $4531.1 per ounce, with a cumulative increase of 4.44% this week.
In the blockchain concept stocks, most stocks declined. Strategy (MSTR) rose by 0.06%, while another Strategy (MSTR) fell by 1.18%; Twenty One Capital (XXI) fell by 1.36%; Circle (CRCL) fell by 1.66%. #美股休市
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Searching for Stability in the Ocean of High APY: Falcon Finance's 7.67% Annualized Return
Having spent a long time in the DeFi circle, I have noticed an interesting phenomenon: everyone is pursuing high APY, with returns of 100%, 200% flying everywhere, but there are not many protocols that can consistently and stably generate profits. Falcon Finance's sUSDf offers an annualized return of 7.67%. This number may not seem impressive at first glance, but upon careful study of the underlying sources of profit, it turns out this approach has its merits.
The profit distribution strategy disclosed by the protocol is as follows: 61% comes from options arbitrage, 21% comes from directional fee arbitrage and staking, and the rest consists of statistical arbitrage, negative fee arbitrage, and other strategies. Options arbitrage takes the majority, essentially earning time value by selling out-of-the-money options. This is a strategy typically used by professional institutions in traditional finance, as it requires continuous risk management and hedging operations. Falcon packages this approach into sUSDf, allowing ordinary users to indirectly participate in institutional-level profit strategies.
The profit distribution strategy disclosed by the protocol is as follows: 61% comes from options arbitrage, 21% comes from directional fee arbitrage and staking, and the rest consists of statistical arbitrage, negative fee arbitrage, and other strategies. Options arbitrage takes the majority, essentially earning time value by selling out-of-the-money options. This is a strategy typically used by professional institutions in traditional finance, as it requires continuous risk management and hedging operations. Falcon packages this approach into sUSDf, allowing ordinary users to indirectly participate in institutional-level profit strategies.
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Practical experience of deploying APRO on 40+ chains, where are the pitfalls?
APRO emphasizes "one codebase deployed across 40+ chains," which sounds great. Recently, I have been integrating APRO on the BNB Chain, Base, and Solana simultaneously, and I found that reality is much more complicated than I imagined.
First, there is the issue of the contract address. EVM-compatible chains (BNB, Base, Arbitrum) are relatively straightforward, as contract addresses are managed uniformly. However, Solana uses a completely different technology stack, and the contract logic needs to be rewritten in Rust. Although APRO claims to support Solana, the documentation only provides examples for EVM, and I couldn't find any integration guide for Solana. In the end, I had to figure it out by looking at the GitHub source code, which wasted me two days.
First, there is the issue of the contract address. EVM-compatible chains (BNB, Base, Arbitrum) are relatively straightforward, as contract addresses are managed uniformly. However, Solana uses a completely different technology stack, and the contract logic needs to be rewritten in Rust. Although APRO claims to support Solana, the documentation only provides examples for EVM, and I couldn't find any integration guide for Solana. In the end, I had to figure it out by looking at the GitHub source code, which wasted me two days.
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Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong stated on the X platform that banks are lobbying the U.S. Congress to revise the GENIUS Act, and Coinbase absolutely will not allow any amendments to this act, which is considered Coinbase's red line, and will continue to uphold the interests of customers and the cryptocurrency industry.
Armstrong added that he predicts that in a few years, once banks realize the huge opportunities brought by stablecoins, they may change their stance and lobby the U.S. Congress to allow stablecoin interest and yield payments. He believes that the current lobbying efforts are futile (and also unethical), and the dilemmas faced by innovators still exist.
It is understood that the current GENIUS Act stipulates that stablecoin issuers cannot provide stablecoin rewards, but trading intermediary platforms like Gemini, Coinbase, and Kraken can offer them and have been included in the current legislation. If traditional bankers amend the act to prohibit relevant actions, it will deal a blow to the innovation of stablecoins. #加密市场观察
Armstrong added that he predicts that in a few years, once banks realize the huge opportunities brought by stablecoins, they may change their stance and lobby the U.S. Congress to allow stablecoin interest and yield payments. He believes that the current lobbying efforts are futile (and also unethical), and the dilemmas faced by innovators still exist.
It is understood that the current GENIUS Act stipulates that stablecoin issuers cannot provide stablecoin rewards, but trading intermediary platforms like Gemini, Coinbase, and Kraken can offer them and have been included in the current legislation. If traditional bankers amend the act to prohibit relevant actions, it will deal a blow to the innovation of stablecoins. #加密市场观察
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Pakistan successfully dismantles a $60 million cryptocurrency investment scam network
According to Finance Feeds, Pakistani authorities in Karachi have dismantled a multinational fraudulent cryptocurrency investment scam network involving approximately $60 million. During the raid, police seized 37 computers, 40 mobile phones, over 10,000 international SIM cards, and 6 illegal payment gateway devices.
The scam group conducted long-term social engineering attacks through social media and instant messaging tools, disguising themselves as traders or 'insiders' to lure victims into fake cryptocurrency and forex trading platforms, promising high returns to entice victims to gradually invest funds. When victims' investments approached $5,000, the scammers demanded additional fees under the pretext of taxes, withdrawal fees, or account verification fees. After payment, victims' access to their accounts would be frozen, and all communication with the scammers would be completely cut off.
Currently, a judge has remanded 22 suspects, including 8 foreigners, in custody. The National Cyber Crime Investigation Agency (NCCIA) has initiated an investigation into the case based on several provisions of the Electronic Crimes Prevention Act and the Pakistan Penal Code.
#加密市场观察
According to Finance Feeds, Pakistani authorities in Karachi have dismantled a multinational fraudulent cryptocurrency investment scam network involving approximately $60 million. During the raid, police seized 37 computers, 40 mobile phones, over 10,000 international SIM cards, and 6 illegal payment gateway devices.
The scam group conducted long-term social engineering attacks through social media and instant messaging tools, disguising themselves as traders or 'insiders' to lure victims into fake cryptocurrency and forex trading platforms, promising high returns to entice victims to gradually invest funds. When victims' investments approached $5,000, the scammers demanded additional fees under the pretext of taxes, withdrawal fees, or account verification fees. After payment, victims' access to their accounts would be frozen, and all communication with the scammers would be completely cut off.
Currently, a judge has remanded 22 suspects, including 8 foreigners, in custody. The National Cyber Crime Investigation Agency (NCCIA) has initiated an investigation into the case based on several provisions of the Electronic Crimes Prevention Act and the Pakistan Penal Code.
#加密市场观察
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2025 Predictions in the Crypto World That Were Proven Wrong, Even Institutional Big Shots Can Miss the Mark
At the beginning of this year, various institutional big shots were bragging about how BTC could reach $200,000 this year and ETH would hit $10,000. Looking back now, it's quite a slap in the face. As of mid-December, the price of BTC is hovering around $87,400, and ETH is only $2,926, which is a far cry from those grandiose statements. This wave of failed predictions can be considered an annual large-scale face-slapping event, worth revisiting.
If we talk about the most conservative predictions, it might be Michael Saylor, the boss of MicroStrategy, who predicted at the beginning of the year that BTC could break $100,000 this year. Although it did briefly touch a historic high of $99,800 at the end of November, it quickly fell back and has yet to truly stabilize at six figures. However, Saylor has consistently emphasized that he is looking at the long term, saying things like a million dollars per Bitcoin, which is the same old rhetoric. Mark Yusko is no different; his target is $150,000, which now seems like a pipe dream.
If we talk about the most conservative predictions, it might be Michael Saylor, the boss of MicroStrategy, who predicted at the beginning of the year that BTC could break $100,000 this year. Although it did briefly touch a historic high of $99,800 at the end of November, it quickly fell back and has yet to truly stabilize at six figures. However, Saylor has consistently emphasized that he is looking at the long term, saying things like a million dollars per Bitcoin, which is the same old rhetoric. Mark Yusko is no different; his target is $150,000, which now seems like a pipe dream.
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According to a report by PANews on December 27, CNBC analysis pointed out that the stock price of Bitcoin treasury company Strategy is still at a low level, while the premium indicator of Bitcoin is also declining. In January next year, the key decision of whether the MSCI index will remove Strategy is approaching.
Against this backdrop, Strategy is developing a "defensive mode." They have recently established a cash buffer of approximately $2.2 billion to address the risks that Bitcoin bets may bring. This fund is expected to be used for paying preferred stock dividends and debt interest, rather than for purchasing more Bitcoin. This strategic adjustment reflects the company's emphasis on risk management in the current market environment. #加密市场观察
Against this backdrop, Strategy is developing a "defensive mode." They have recently established a cash buffer of approximately $2.2 billion to address the risks that Bitcoin bets may bring. This fund is expected to be used for paying preferred stock dividends and debt interest, rather than for purchasing more Bitcoin. This strategic adjustment reflects the company's emphasis on risk management in the current market environment. #加密市场观察
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😂😂😂difficult to hold on
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Sharplink CEO Joseph Chalom stated that the surge of stablecoins and tokenized real-world assets (RWA), along with the increasing interest from sovereign wealth funds, could drive the total value locked (TVL) in Ethereum to grow 10 times by 2026.
Chalom expects the stablecoin market size to reach $500 billion by the end of 2026, while tokenized RWA is projected to reach $300 billion. He also noted that the management scale of tokenized assets will grow 10 times, expanding from the tokenization of individual funds, stocks, and bonds to the tokenization of entire portfolios. Additionally, the amount of Ethereum (ETH) held by sovereign wealth funds and the scale of tokenization will increase by 5-10 times.
At the same time, on-chain artificial intelligence agents and prediction markets will trend towards the mainstream, further driving increased activity on Ethereum. These trends suggest that Ethereum may play a more significant role in the future financial ecosystem, attracting more users and capital inflow.
Chalom expects the stablecoin market size to reach $500 billion by the end of 2026, while tokenized RWA is projected to reach $300 billion. He also noted that the management scale of tokenized assets will grow 10 times, expanding from the tokenization of individual funds, stocks, and bonds to the tokenization of entire portfolios. Additionally, the amount of Ethereum (ETH) held by sovereign wealth funds and the scale of tokenization will increase by 5-10 times.
At the same time, on-chain artificial intelligence agents and prediction markets will trend towards the mainstream, further driving increased activity on Ethereum. These trends suggest that Ethereum may play a more significant role in the future financial ecosystem, attracting more users and capital inflow.
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According to Bloomberg, Brian Armstrong, the CEO of Coinbase Global Inc., stated that a former customer service representative has been arrested in India. A few months ago, hackers obtained customer information by bribing customer service personnel. In May of this year, the company stated that hackers had bribed contractors or employees outside the United States to steal sensitive customer data and demanded a ransom of $20 million.
This incident is regarded as one of the most prominent security vulnerabilities faced by cryptocurrency trading platforms. Coinbase estimated at the time that the cost to remediate this incident could be as much as $400 million. This incident once again highlights the vulnerabilities of the crypto industry in terms of security and the necessity of protecting customer data.
This incident is regarded as one of the most prominent security vulnerabilities faced by cryptocurrency trading platforms. Coinbase estimated at the time that the cost to remediate this incident could be as much as $400 million. This incident once again highlights the vulnerabilities of the crypto industry in terms of security and the necessity of protecting customer data.
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Why did I switch from self-hosted nodes to APRO's OaaS?
Having been in DeFi for more than two years, I have always insisted on running my own oracle nodes, believing it to be the safest and most controllable approach. It wasn't until last month when I tried APRO's OaaS (Oracle as a Service) that I realized I had been doing useless work.
First, let's do the math. I previously rented two t3.medium instances on AWS to run Chainlink nodes, with a monthly server cost of $120, plus monitoring, backups, and maintenance, conservatively estimated at $150. The nodes also require staking LINK tokens, locking $20,000 in liquidity. Over two years, the cost alone is $3,600 plus opportunity cost, and I often get woken up at night by alarms when the nodes go offline, which has made me mentally exhausted.
First, let's do the math. I previously rented two t3.medium instances on AWS to run Chainlink nodes, with a monthly server cost of $120, plus monitoring, backups, and maintenance, conservatively estimated at $150. The nodes also require staking LINK tokens, locking $20,000 in liquidity. Over two years, the cost alone is $3,600 plus opportunity cost, and I often get woken up at night by alarms when the nodes go offline, which has made me mentally exhausted.
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Today's TGE has exceeded expectations. In fact, there's no need to look at the project's account followers or how much funding they have; just check if your score is sufficient. Today, this project has few followers, but at least they allow people to benefit. Those large funds and big background projects will still be scarce; let's dispel the myths.
#ALPHA
#ALPHA
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The trading competition has come to a close, and it is indeed easier to get involved with the new ranking.🤣
#ALPHA $NIGHT
#ALPHA $NIGHT
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