SurajSensei

As of June 2025, Bitcoin is firmly in a bull phase. Price recently dipped to about $101K and then quickly recovered near $110K, holding well above the $100K support level. Key on-chain and macro indicators are pointing upward. For example, the Coinbase Premium Index – the price gap between Coinbase (USD) and Binance (USDT) – has been positive throughout June 2025. A sustained Coinbase premium signals strong U.S. spot demand, a bullish sign for BTC. In short, U.S. buyers remain active, and confidence appears high as Bitcoin trades near new highs.

Key On-Chain & Market Indicators
Exchange Outflows = Bullish. Recent data shows large net BTC withdrawals from exchanges. Over the past month exchanges saw net outflows averaging ~72K BTC/day, while Bitcoin’s price climbed +4.4%. Glassnode/AMINA Bank analysis finds a strong negative correlation (~–0.605) between exchange flows and price: when coins flow off exchanges (green bars below zero in the chart below), prices tend to rise. In other words, steady withdrawals (reduced selling supply) have historically preceded upward moves.

Flow vs Price Correlation. The scatterplot below highlights this inverse relationship. Each point represents a day’s net exchange flow vs. price. The downward trendline (r ≈ –0.605) confirms that larger outflows (left side) generally align with higher prices. This means that recent heavy outflows are a bullish signal.

Long-Term Holders (LTHs): Long-term holders have taken some profits but remain net accumulators. Glassnode reports LTHs realized about $0.93B per day at the peak of the rally, and even $1.47B/day during the latest ATH run. These profit-taking levels, while significant, are below 2021 extremes, implying seasoned investors are not liquidating en masse. In fact, despite recent sell-offs, most LTHs hold on, showing confidence. Realized gain metrics are elevated but not sky-high, and loss-taking has been minor.Valuation Metrics: Key ratios still look healthy. The MVRV Z-score (market cap divided by realized cap) is in a “healthy” range, indicating Bitcoin is not overvalued. Amberdata notes that Bitcoin’s MVRV fell from ~2.27 in Feb 2025 to 1.75 by Aprilblog.amberdata.io. A lower MVRV (1.75) is closer to fair value (realized cap), suggesting more upside room. Likewise, on-chain models (Spent Supply Distribution) place important support at ~$103.7K (95th percentile of cost) and $95.6K (85th percentile). As long as BTC stays above the short-term holder break-even ($98K), the trend remains up.Macro Tailwinds: US economic data has cooperated with the bullish case. May 2025 CPI inflation came in at just +0.1% MoM, easing pressure for aggressive Fed hikes. Softer inflation has boosted risk assets; for example, Bitcoin spiked briefly past $110K after the report. Inflows into crypto funds are surging: CoinShares reports a $1.3B inflow into Bitcoin funds in mid-June (part of a record nine straight weeks of net inflows, totaling ~$13.2B YTD). This flood of fresh capital, especially from U.S. investors, underpins the bullish outlook.Investor Sentiment: Greed is on the rise. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index is around 70 (“Greed”), reflecting an optimistic market mood. Even prominent analysts expect continued gains: many forecasts at year-end 2025 put Bitcoin’s peak between $180K and $250K. On-chain analyst Willy Woo notes on-chain “risk signals” are still bullish (buy-side liquidity dominates). And macro thinkers point out ~$7 trillion sitting in money-market funds that could eventually flow into hard assets like Bitcoin, foreshadowing large-scale demand ahead.Short‑Term Caution: No market is without risks. Technical are somewhat stretched – the RSI entered overbought territory in mid-May – and large whales have taken profit (~30K BTC moved on May 13–15). This helped trigger the brief retracement to $101K. If Bitcoin dips below the $95–98K zone, a deeper pullback could follow. However, current on-chain evidence suggests the dip was mostly healthy consolidation, not panic selling. The key support band between $95K–$103K has proven sticky, and as long as it holds, the path remains upward.
Price Projections
End of June 2025: Most signals point to a resumption of the rally. Analysts at Cointelegraph note that under current conditions Bitcoin could achieve an ~18–25% rally in 6–8 weeks, which works out to roughly $130K by late June. In practice, if BTC holds above the ~$102–104K short-term bottom and clears immediate resistance around $106–107K, we could see prices climbing toward $115–120K, and possibly $130K by month-end. Glassnode’s models agree that reclaiming $106–107K is the key bullish trigger, while maintaining support at ~$103K. Barring a surprise, I consider $130K by end‑Q2 a reasonable target.Q3 2025: If momentum carries into July–September, Bitcoin may push well above $130K. The same factors that drive Q2 gains (ETF inflows, on-chain demand, macro easing) will linger, and summer historically sees quieter news flow, which could allow the price to run. My base-case forecast is continued gains in Q3; I wouldn’t be surprised to see $150K+ as new resistance comes into play. Many institutional models envision a peak later in 2025 – VanEck, Fundstrat and others have eyed $180–250K as a bull-top. Even if that proves optimistic, mid-$100K to low-$200K by year-end is well within analysts’ expectations.End of 2025: Looking ahead to year-end, the long-term drivers are all positive. The halving-induced supply shock is in effect, institutional and corporate adoption continues, and global liquidity concerns persist. If the current bull market endures, Bitcoin could easily more than double from today’s levels. As one source summarizes, factors like massive cash reserves (~$7T) and rising macro uncertainty all point to a bullish final 2025. Even if we adopt a cautious stance, $150–200K by late 2025 seems likely under a bullish or neutral thesis (and flat-to-bearish scenarios are becoming harder to justify).Key TakeawaysUS Spot Demand Remains High: Coinbase Premium has been firmly positive this month, indicating robust buying pressure on U.S. exchanges.Exchange Outflows = Bullish Signal: Large net withdrawals (~72K BTC/day) from exchanges have coincided with rising price. A strong negative flow-price correlation (–0.605) means outflows tend to precede rallies.Healthy Holder Behavior: Long-term holders took normal profits ($0.93B–$1.47B/day) during the recent ATH rush, but they remain largely holders, not dumpers. Short-term holders’ break-even ($98K) is well below current price, keeping bullish momentum intact.Valuation Gauges are Bullish: MVRV/Z-score and other on-chain metrics show Bitcoin is not overheated. Glassnode’s models point to major support around $95–103K and resistance ~$114–115K.Macro and Flows Support an Uptrend: Cooling US inflation (May CPI +0.1%) eases Fed pressures. Meanwhile, crypto fund inflows are at record levels (CoinShares: US$1.3B into BTC last week). Liquidity is high and patience is thin for missed opportunities – $7T in idle cash could eventually flood into Bitcoin.Projected Targets: With these bullish underpinnings, ~20–25% gains by late June (around $130K) look plausible. If momentum holds, Bitcoin may reach mid-$100K in Q3, with year-end targets in the $150K–200K+ range consistent with many forecasts.
Conclusion: All signs point to a continuation of Bitcoin’s bull run. On-chain data (flows, HODLer behavior, valuation metrics) and macro catalysts (ETF inflows, easing inflation) are aligned with higher prices. While short-term pullbacks are possible, the medium-term bias is strongly positive. As a macro analyst, my base-case outlook for end‑2025 is bullish: barring unforeseen shocks, I expect Bitcoin to trade well above today’s levels, likely in the upper five figures or beyond. In practical terms, that means continuing higher in Q3 and into Q4, with $180K+ achievable if the momentum persists.
#BTCPrediction $BTC

Crypto markets today were a tale of two trends: sharp geopolitical-driven declines, followed by a surge in equity demand spurred by blockbuster IPOs.

Section 1: Geopolitical volatility

Bitcoin fell ~5% to ~$102.9K after news of Israeli airstrikes on Iran, triggering over $300M in liquidations within one hour. $ETH followed suit with ~6% losses.

This illustrates crypto’s continuing status as a risk-on asset, highly reactive to global events.

Section 2: IPO-driven equity surge

In contrast, Circle's IPO stock leapt from $31 to $107, prompting filings from other major players Gemini, Kraken, Ripple anticipating the same investor fervor.

U.S. legislation like the CLARITY and GENIUS bills is progressing, improving regulatory visibility and fueling interest in crypto equities .

Conclusion: Traders should brace for heightened volatility driven by global tensions while recognizing the broader structural trend: a booming crypto IPO market supported by regulatory progress. Hedging and active management remain key.

During high-stakes trade talks between the United States and Japan, former President Donald Trump made a surprising move that could shake global financial markets: he demanded Japan strengthen its currency, the yen. While seemingly aimed at shrinking the U.S. trade deficit, this bold proposal may carry unintended consequences for both nations.

What started as a routine policy meeting in Washington—featuring Japanese Minister of Economic Affairs Ryosei Akazawa, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, and Trade Representative Jamieson—took an unexpected turn. Trump walked in and insisted that currency policies be added to the discussion, despite the original focus being tariffs.

Currency Manipulation Allegations and Japan’s Rebuttal

Trump has long accused Japan of weakening its currency to gain a trade edge. Now, he's doubling down—urging U.S. negotiators to bring exchange rates into the spotlight.

Japanese Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato quickly responded, rebuffing the accusations during a parliamentary session:

“Japan is not manipulating its currency. Our recent action was, in fact, an intervention to support the yen,” Kato clarified.

While Kato expressed openness to future dialogue, he noted that no formal meeting date with Treasury Secretary Bessent had been set yet. He is expected to visit Washington for the upcoming IMF and World Bank spring meetings.

Economists Warn: A Stronger Yen Could Spell Trouble

Financial experts are raising red flags over Trump’s push. Forcing Japan to boost the yen’s value could disrupt both the Japanese economy and U.S. financial stability.

Rising Interest Rates? Pressure on Japan’s central bank to hike rates could stall the country’s fragile recovery and jeopardize monetary policy independence.
U.S. Bond Market Risks? If Japan starts offloading U.S. dollars to elevate the yen, it could rattle bond markets—particularly concerning in today’s volatile economic climate.

Wall Street Eyes Potential “Mar-a-Lago Accord”

Analysts at Citigroup suggest Japan might be one of the first targets if Trump initiates a global strategy to weaken the U.S. dollar. The plan, informally dubbed the “Mar-a-Lago Accord” (a nod to the 1985 Plaza Accord), could have sweeping effects.

“We don’t view the ‘Mar-a-Lago Accord’ as an immediate threat,” said Citigroup FX strategist Osamu Takashima,

“but countries like Japan—with significant foreign reserves and undervalued currencies—could be squarely in focus.”

Yen Rising Amid Speculation

The yen has already begun to appreciate as markets speculate that the U.S. might press Japan into a currency realignment. Trump appears to be leveraging the yen issue to tackle the long-standing U.S. trade deficit.

Back in March, Trump issued a pointed warning to both China and Japan:

“They can’t keep lowering their currency values – it’s unfair to the United States,” he asserted.

Tags:

#Trump #Japan #USPolitics #GlobalEconomy #TrendingTopic

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Disclaimer:

The information provided in this article is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Readers are advised to conduct their own research and consult financial experts before making any investment decisions. Investing in financial markets, including cryptocurrencies, carries risks and may result in losses.

#BTCRebound
A Look at Its Current State and Future Outlook as of April 13, 2025

Bitcoin, the leading cryptocurrency, has been a rollercoaster of volatility in early 2025, leaving investors wondering whether it’s poised for a rebound. As of April 13, 2025, at 06:09 AM PDT, Bitcoin is trading at $84,413.31, showing signs of recovery from a recent dip below $90,000. This post dives into Bitcoin’s current performance, the factors suggesting a potential rebound, expert predictions, and key considerations for investors.

Bitcoin’s Current Price and Recent Trends
Bitcoin’s price has experienced notable fluctuations recently. After hitting an all-time high of $109,114.88 on January 20, 2025, it dropped by approximately 22.73%, landing at its current level of $84,413.31. Within the last 24 hours, it ranged between a low of $83,551.68 and a high of $86,015.19, indicating a slight upward tick. This movement suggests Bitcoin may be stabilizing or even starting to rebound.

Technical indicators support this notion. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 51.52, reflecting a neutral-to-bullish sentiment. While not yet in oversold territory (typically below 30), the RSI’s direction hints at potential upward momentum. Additionally, market data shows that over the past 30 days, Bitcoin had 15 green days out of 30 (50%) with a volatility of 2.82%, pointing to a mixed but possibly stabilizing trend.

Signs of a Rebound
Several factors indicate Bitcoin could be on the cusp of a recovery:

Institutional Adoption: The approval of Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) in the U.S. has brought in billions in new liquidity, making Bitcoin more accessible to institutional investors. Companies and financial institutions are increasingly adding Bitcoin to their portfolios, signaling growing mainstream acceptance.

Regulatory Clarity: The U.S. political landscape is shifting toward a more crypto-friendly stance. With a new administration and the nomination of Paul Atkins—a known crypto advocate—to replace the historically cautious SEC Chairman Gary Gensler, regulatory uncertainty is easing. This could boost investor confidence significantly.

Macroeconomic Trends: Bitcoin is gaining traction as a hedge against inflation and economic instability, much like gold. As central banks pause interest rate hikes and inflation concerns linger, investors are turning to Bitcoin as a “risk-on” asset.

Supply Dynamics: The Bitcoin halving in April 2024 reduced miner rewards from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC, tightening the supply of new coins. Combined with rising demand—evidenced by “whales” accumulating $5.39 billion worth of BTC recently—this scarcity could drive prices higher.

Market sentiment is also cautiously optimistic, with the Fear & Greed Index at 43 (Fear) as of April 12, 2025, suggesting room for positive shifts as confidence grows.

Expert Predictions for Bitcoin’s Future
Analysts are largely bullish on Bitcoin’s trajectory, though predictions vary depending on the timeline:

Short-Term Forecasts:
- By April 14, 2025: Changelly predicts Bitcoin could hit $93,097.70.
- By April 17, 2025: CoinCodex forecasts a rise to $105,476.
- By End of April 2025: Long Forecast estimates an average price of $88,263.

- Long-Term Outlook:
- By End of 2025: Forbes suggests Bitcoin could climb as high as $200,000, driven by institutional inflows and regulatory tailwinds.
- Longer-Term Potential: Some analysts, citing whale activity, speculate prices could reach $350,000 in the coming years.

These projections are grounded in technical indicators—like the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $85,589, acting as a support level—and fundamental drivers such as adoption and supply constraints. However, short-term bearish signals, like a downward-sloping 50-day moving average on shorter time frames, remind us of the market’s volatility.

Risks and Investor Caution
Despite the promising signs, Bitcoin remains a high-risk investment. Its 2.82% volatility over the past month underscores the potential for rapid price swings. Other risks include:

- Possible market corrections after sharp rallies.
- Government sales of seized Bitcoin, which could flood the market.
- Broader economic pressures impacting risk assets.

Investors should approach Bitcoin with caution, conducting thorough research and assessing their risk tolerance. Unlike traditional investments, cryptocurrencies offer little protection if things go awry, so a well-informed strategy is essential.

Conclusion: Is Bitcoin Rebounding?
As of April 13, 2025, Bitcoin’s price of $84,413.31 and its recent upward movement suggest it may indeed be rebounding from its latest lows. Institutional adoption, regulatory clarity, macroeconomic trends, and supply dynamics are aligning to support a bullish outlook, with predictions ranging from $93,097.70 in the near term to $200,000 by year-end. However, the cryptocurrency market’s inherent volatility means nothing is guaranteed.

For those considering an investment, Bitcoin’s potential is compelling, but it comes with significant risks. Stay informed, weigh the pros and cons, and proceed with caution—this rebound could be the start of something big, or just another twist in Bitcoin’s unpredictable journey.