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🔹 Today, May 15 - PPI & Retail Sales: Any signs of rising prices or slowing consumer spending could shift risk sentiment. - Unemployment Claims: Labor weakness = more pressure on the Fed. - Fed Chair Powell speaks: This could move markets fast depending on his tone.
🔹 Friday, May 16 - UMich Consumer Sentiment & Inflation Expectations: Market sensitivity to inflation expectations is high
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The U.S. government has proposed a two-year prison sentence for Eric Council Jr., who is accused of hacking the SEC’s X account and posting a fake announcement about the approval of a Bitcoin spot ETF. The false post, made about a day before the actual approval, caused major market fluctuations.
Michael Saylor, founder of Strategy, stated that Bitcoin hasn't yet reached $150,000 largely because many of its previous holders—such as governments, legal entities, and bankruptcy trustees—sold off their holdings during price increases, lacking a true long-term investment mindset. He emphasized that these sellers were not aligned with a “ten-year investor mentality.”
The updated GENIUS Act (S. 1582) now extends U.S. regulatory oversight to foreign stablecoin issuers like Tether that provide services to American users. It also significantly widens the scope of "digital asset service providers" to include developers, validators, and self-custody wallet providers, all of whom would be required to adhere to the Bank Secrecy Act and AML rules.
The updated GENIUS Act (S. 1582) now extends U.S. regulatory oversight to foreign stablecoin issuers like Tether that provide services to American users. It also significantly widens the scope of "digital asset service providers" to include developers, validators, and self-custody wallet providers, all of whom would be required to adhere to the Bank Secrecy Act and AML rules.
🔹 Inflation has fallen substantially, but upside risks have risen due to duties 🔹 The risks of unemployment has increased 🔹 The economy is resilient 🔹GDP decline in Q1 was due to trade policy $BTC
🔹 Inflation has fallen substantially, but upside risks have risen due to duties 🔹 The risks of unemployment has increased 🔹 The economy is resilient 🔹GDP decline in Q1 was due to trade policy
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the Trump administration may reach "an agreement on understanding" on trade with South Korea "as soon as next week."
Economic Data
Orders for durable goods jumped 9.2% in March vs expectations of a 1.6% rise
New applications for unemployment benefits rose marginally last week
-> President Trump says that 90 countries have called to discuss trade and tariffs so far
-> Trump says 145% China tariff is "very high". He mentions China's fentynal production specifically. "China isn't doing any business with the US right now. "I'm hoping we make a deal, but if not, we (i.e. US) will set the price."
-> Countries & businesses that do not make a deal with the US will have their tariff rate set by the US over the next 2-3 weeks
-> Trump to Exempt Car Parts From Tariffs on China Imports (FT)
DURING US MARKET TRADING
WSJ reported that Trump administration is considering slashing the steep tariffs on China to between 50-65%
-> Treasury Secretary Bessent later clarified that there is no unilateral offer to cut China tariffs
-> Treasury Secretary Bessent: Trump administration is looking at multiple factors, like non-tariff barriers, government subsidies, and tariffs, with regard to China. A full rebalancing of US/China trade might take 2-3 years.
-> President Trump chastised Ukrainian President Zelenskiy for his comment that "Ukraine will not legally recognize the occupation of Crimea. There's nothing to talk about here"
-> Trump said in a Truth Social post that this statement "is very harmful to the Peace Negotiations with Russia... We are very close to a Deal, but the man with "no cards to play" should now, finally, GET IT DONE.
-> I look forward to being able to help Ukraine, and Russia, get out of this Complete and Total MESS"
President Trump -> China tariffs will "come down substantially, but it won't be zero" and he thinks they will make a deal. He added that he would play nice.
Treasury Sec Bessent -> "I do say China is going to be a slog in terms of the negotiations.. Neither side thinks the status quo is sustainable"
WH Press Secy -> "The president & the administration are setting the stage for a deal with China"