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Comment " Gm "

How will the market move this week? Three key points: Powell, tariffs, and data.
1⃣ First, let's talk about economic data:

Last week's three core points:
Negative GDP growth in the first quarter, but consumption remains strong, easing recession worries.
April's non-farm payroll exceeded expectations, with new jobs not solely due to tariffs poaching talent.
Tech giants' earnings reports (Microsoft, Google, Meta) performed well, capital expenditures are still rising, alleviating concerns about weak earnings reports.

Overall, there’s no reason for the market to be too pessimistic in the short term. The real concern is the aftereffects of the tariffs being fully implemented, but April is just the beginning.

2⃣ Progress in tariff negotiations, the market is extremely sensitive:

The atmosphere of China-US negotiations has eased, moving from “not talking at all” to “in contact” to “under evaluation,” with the tone gradually relaxing; last Friday, reactions in New Taiwan Dollar and Hong Kong Dollar were already very noticeable.
Japan-US negotiations have hit a snag, with the US unwilling to budge on auto and steel tariffs, and Japan's finance minister even stating “US bonds can also be discussed.”

India may reach an agreement the fastest; the EU and South Korea are making slower progress.

Last week, Trump also exempted auto tariffs for Canada and Mexico, releasing a bit of goodwill.

3⃣ Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting + Market rhythm:
This week, there’s only the interest rate decision and Powell's press conference, with little to no rate hike expected, likely to be “neutral to hawkish.”

Last week’s strong data gives the Fed reason to hold steady and continue observing.

If negotiations are still progressing, Powell doesn’t need to act urgently.

Currently, the overall market direction remains unchanged, with US stocks returning to the 4.2 high point, and Bitcoin having touched 97K; the short-term outlook is oscillating slightly stronger. But don’t forget, over the weekend, Trump again mentioned imposing a 100% tariff on imported films, and the market could panic again at any moment.

In conclusion: fundamentals are okay, policies are variable, the market has confidence but may find it difficult to surge all at once. This week, let’s see what Powell says and keep an eye on whether there’s the first truly finalized trade agreement; if there is, that would be a clear positive.

Trump: The Cryptocurrency Market is Stronger than the Stock Market During Recent Crash

In an interview, U.S. President Trump commented that during the recent market crash, the performance of the cryptocurrency market was "much stronger than the stock market." He also stated that cryptocurrencies are currently "very popular and very hot."

The roots of retail investors' losses in the investment market can be summarized in the following key points:

Greed and Emotion-Driven:
Retail investors often enter the market driven by dreams of getting rich quickly, stimulated by dopamine after entering the market, chasing short-term profits.
After making profits, their risk appetite increases, and greed leads to overtrading, ultimately returning both principal and profits to the market.
After losses, emotional trading, such as frequent trading or panic selling, further amplifies losses.

Cognitive Bias and Information Asymmetry:
Retail investors mistakenly believe they can outperform the market, ignoring the gap between themselves and major players or institutions.
Major players create illusions using technical patterns (such as head and shoulders, golden crosses) to lure retail investors into buying at high prices.
Information is often delayed and frequently false; retail investors rely on news or fragmented information, making it easy to make incorrect judgments.

Behavioral Pitfalls:
Frequent trading increases the probability of losses; data shows that those who trade frequently lose three times more than savvy investors.
Lack of discipline makes it difficult to execute rational strategies, such as waiting in cash or cutting losses.

Market Ecology and Game Theory:
Ninety percent of retail investors lose in the market; profitable investors need to have probabilistic thinking, game theory thinking, and a holistic market ecological perspective.
In the game between major players and retail investors, retail investors are often the sacrificial lambs who follow suit.

Solutions:
Discipline and Patience: Wait in cash for major panic events (such as market crashes due to policies or external turmoil) before entering, reduce trading frequency, and cut losses.

Independent Thinking: Filter out useless information, build objective judgment standards, and only refer to reliable sources.

Systematic Learning: Cultivate probabilistic thinking and a holistic market perspective, replicate profitable methods, and seek certainty in uncertainty.

Summary: Losses stem from greed, cognitive biases, and behavioral pitfalls; profitability requires discipline, independent thinking, and systematic thinking. In market games, retail investors should 'trade less, wait for opportunities, and cut losses' to capture certain opportunities with probabilistic thinking.