一鸣的交易日记

Fluctuating Upward

BTC: Although it has pulled back after a spike, the upward structure in the 4-hour and higher time frames remains unchanged.

ETH: I maintain yesterday's view that it faces resistance in the 4400-4500 range, and may consolidate at this position, but this will not affect the potential for new highs later. Therefore, for the medium to long term, it can still be held; however, the cost-effectiveness of entering at this position for the short term is not high.

Altcoins: This is a rotation upward; as long as you're on the bus, don't get off casually.

#btc
#ETH突破4300

About the Federal Reserve's Rate Cuts and the Bank of Japan's Rate Hikes

Since 2024, the Federal Reserve has cut rates a total of 3 times, and the Bank of Japan has raised rates 3 times, with the timing nearly coinciding;

1: On September 18, 2024, the Federal Reserve cut rates by 50 basis points for the first time; on July 31, 2024, the Bank of Japan raised rates by 15 basis points;

2: On November 7, 2024, the Federal Reserve cut rates by 25 basis points, and again on December 18, it cut rates by another 25 basis points; the Bank of Japan raised rates by 25 basis points on January 24, 2025;

3: The Bank of Japan, on March 19, 2024, announced the exit from the negative interest rate policy implemented for 8 years, raising the policy interest rate from -0.1% to the range of 0—0.1%, while also canceling the Yield Curve Control (YCC) policy;

This rate hike is the first in Japan in 17 years since February 2007, marking the beginning of the normalization of monetary policy;

The Federal Reserve's rate cut in September is essentially a done deal; however, do not forget that on the other side, there are interest rate decisions in October and December, especially in October;

#美联储降息
#日本央行加息

Ethereum: Short-term resistance in the 4400~4500 range

On the 8th, Yi Ming wrote in the square that Ethereum would soon see 4400~4500

The analysis was based on both wave and expansion perspectives; now we are basically approaching this position, facing short-term resistance;

For long-term traders, there is no need to pay attention to this resistance level, after all, it will eventually break through 4800

For short-term (swing) participants, this position is not very suitable for direct chasing; can we short at resistance? Answer: do not participate in shorting, as it diverges from the larger trend. We should position ourselves with the trend, not against it;

If there is a pullback, there will be new opportunities to ambush more buyers.

#BTC走势分析
#ETH🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥

BTC is about to reach a new high

In the past week, ETH has taken the spotlight in the market with a group of altcoins, while BTC seems a bit sluggish;

However, BTC will not disappoint everyone; the next target is 135000, and it will not be absent.

#以太坊生态回暖

ETH 4500 position will not be too far away

From the weekly perspective, using extension lines, it can be clearly seen that ETH's next upward target is 4500.

The image below shows another calculation method using wave theory, resulting in the next upward target of 4391;

These two positions are not far apart.

Therefore, long positions can wait patiently, first aiming for the next target of 4400~4500, no need to doubt whether it can reach that point; it’s a matter of time, and it won’t take too long~

#ETH🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥

Opportunity

This chart is the four-hour structure chart of USDT.D

This signal has an inverse trend compared to BTC, and the position marked by the red circle is the current support. If there is an upward rebound here, BTC may experience a brief adjustment in the four-hour cycle (it will not drop significantly)

This adjustment is an opportunity for BTC bulls to enter;

#比特币流动性危机
#特朗普允许401(k)投资加密货币
#美SEC批准流动性质押

Greed will play out again

The next two months should be quite crazy, but also bloody; the Bank of Japan will likely raise interest rates again by the end of the year, which will be the trigger for a market explosion. I am writing this down in advance today, and it will be verified in the future. (Written on August 8, 2025)

#BTC走势分析

August 8 Market Analysis

ETH and some altcoins are currently in a bullish trend on the 4H, daily, weekly, and monthly charts. Although BTC has not yet broken through its daily lifeline, it is not a question of whether it can break through, but rather when it will do so;

Given this situation, continue to hold your spot positions without any unnecessary actions, and get off at the destination (or at the right time). Do not consider shorting contracts; there will be adjustments with bearish candles in between, but these bearish candles provide opportunities to enter, not to short. It’s important to recognize the mainstream trend. (This mindset can continue until the end of September without change. When you feel confused, just take this statement out and read it.)

Regarding interest rate cuts: From the increase in April until now, it can be said that this is a realization of the expectations for interest rate cuts. After the rate cut is implemented, it is actually the time to do subtraction. Many people find this difficult to understand and believe that after one rate cut, there will be a second and third. The first cut is still effective for the market, but the second and third cuts have diminishing effects, and in the long run, they become bearish.

#BTC走势分析

August 7 Market Analysis

The weekly trend remains bullish, and spot traders must ensure they are currently in the market. It may not be the best position, but there is profit potential at this level.

It is uncertain whether there will be a short-term downward adjustment today, but going short is not recommended. If there is a pullback, consider buying the dip and avoid strategies that diverge from the larger cycle trend.

#BTC
#BTC走势分析

8.6 Daily Market Analysis

Looking for Entry Opportunities During Pullbacks

Yesterday, we set up two scout strategies (BTC and ETH) for long positions. After entering at a key level, although there was an increase, it did not gain momentum. In the evening, we decided to exit decisively and look for other opportunities.

When a key level does not gain momentum quickly, it indicates that adjustments are still underway, and better positions are waiting ahead.

The trading strategy remains unchanged: wait for the market to continue adjusting, and at key levels, set up two (BTC and ETH) to test whether the pullback is over. After confirmation, we will set up for other assets and roll over positions.

The next key level is likely below 111850.

#BTC
#ETH走势分析

Evening Perspective Sharing

In the afternoon, BTC and ETH both showed rebounds at key positions, but the rebounds did not form a trend, indicating that this adjustment is not over yet. Long positions (contracts) can wait a bit longer.

The two long positions in BTC and ETH that were waiting have already exited. Today, we will not consider entering a position.

On the way

As mentioned in the article and video this morning, we will first deploy two scout strategies today, and now both BTC and ETH are on the way

#BTC
#ETH走势分析

Those who failed to reach the top yesterday, take a look

Yesterday's rise trapped many short positions, the core issue is the unclear trading cycle, and key positions are hard to find;

Take a look, is the key position written by Yi Ming good or not;

#BTC走势分析
#ETH走势分析

Can send out scout strategy first

Yesterday ETH rebounded significantly. If we only look at the price, we might think the pullback is over and the bull market has arrived; however, yesterday's rise saw BTC and ETH not effectively break through the daily life line resistance on the daily chart.

Current situation:

1: The four-hour period is bullish
2: The daily line has not broken through yet
3: The weekly line is bullish

The low points of BTC at 111850 and ETH at 3353 from the day before yesterday are uncertain if they are the lowest points of this pullback; in order to not miss trend opportunities while also not expanding risks, the following deployment is made:

First, send out two scouts (BTC and ETH), placing buy orders at key positions during the pullback (the managed account has already placed them), with a maximum drawdown control of 2% of the principal for the single strategy.

If the scouts enter the market and the situation progresses smoothly, breaking through the daily life line resistance, other varieties will also be ambushed later. The profit-loss ratio of the initial scout strategy will exceed 1:8.

If the scout strategy enters the market and the situation is not favorable, with a stop loss that is not significant, it indicates that the market pullback has not ended, and we will look for other opportunities.

#BTC
#ETH走势分析