It has been a month, here are the earnings for April.
I used my own model to do this, and the return rate has gradually stabilized. It might also be that the recent market conditions fit the model's patterns, so let's see how it goes.
The profit curve looks good, so I'm showing it off a bit.
The event contract has reached 163 orders, and the win rate has returned to 64%. With 163 orders invested at 1663u, the average investment per order is about 10u.
The extra 8 orders have made a profit of 41u, which is an improvement compared to the previous average profit per order.
Recently, there have been fewer signals for event contracts, but they are still on the rise and will increase.
The U.S. junk bond market's bonds are highly sensitive to future market expectations. It is precisely because they are overly sensitive that various rating agencies consider these bonds to have greater risk due to excessive volatility, resulting in relatively low ratings. This is why they are commonly referred to as the junk bond market.
In the past two weeks, due to the ongoing disturbances, the sea conditions have been quite rough, and the junk bond market has been inactive for two weeks due to the weather.
After nearly two weeks of silence, the market has welcomed the issuance of new junk bonds for the first time in the past two days. The new junk bonds aim to raise $2.5 billion, which is a significant issuance amount. The resumption of junk bond issuance is an important signal.
Such a large-scale issuance and fundraising also indicate that the overall "risk appetite" in the market is beginning to warm up significantly, meaning that a small group of people who know certain things we do not are starting to feel restless. This is one of the signs favorable for the rebound of stocks and other risk assets.
As risk appetite rebounds, U.S. stocks and treasury bonds have shown signs of stabilization and rebound to some extent. In the past two days, junk bonds have also recorded the largest single-day gain since December 2023.
The storm is gradually calming down, and fishing boats are successively heading out to sea to fish...
The map shows the results of my completion of 100 event contracts. Now, let's summarize the results. On average, the investment was about 10U, with the lowest being 5U and the highest around 20U, ultimately averaging about 10U per contract. In the recent 20 contracts, there were 8 consecutive wrong bets resulting in a loss of 225U, followed by 12 contracts where I bet correctly 11 times, recovering 44U. The final overall result is a profit of 29.8U. The profit contract rate is 64%, but there were significant losses in some large contracts, so although the profit rate is decent, the final result is not particularly ideal. In the next couple of days, when I feel better and have some free time, I plan to review the experience of these 100 contracts and share my analysis once it's done. $BTC $BNB $XRP
This is a record post, let's consider it a starting point. After half a month of trading, I had unrealized losses in the previous week, but I managed to break even in the following week. I don't know what the future holds. "Take it easy, take your time..." $BTC $BNB $XRP
Seeing others earn so much by cutting leeks, I really want to learn too, but unfortunately, I'm not ruthless or decisive, and I'm lazy... I just want to earn purely Sigh, it's really $BTC $XRP
Back to the time when East University and West University sang in duet. Not afraid of chaos, only afraid of no channels. If this continues, there is actually an opportunity to revitalize the dual centers. The trade of East University can spread out using CN currency, and the trade of West University can come in and out using US currency, which is actually quite good. Long-term benefits for circulation. $BTC $BNB