0x猫头觉主

不做空！不做空跟你看没看对趋势没关系，就算你看对了也没用。

❌🈳看看巴菲特芒格怎么说：

巴菲特：“查理和我对做空都不陌生，我们两个都失败了。”芒格对做空则表示：“我们不喜欢以痛苦地交易来换金钱。”（2013年）

查理和我过去在上百只股票上有过做空的想
法，如果我们实施了，我们可能已经变成了穷光蛋。泡沫的演化基于人性，没有人知道什么时候它会破裂，或在破裂之前它会膨胀到多大。（2002年）

❌🈳再看看段永平：

网友：请问段总当时卖空百度的理由是什么？当时是怎么想的才做出这决定？从中我们应该学到什么？

段永平：首先，卖空行为是错的。当时确实看到了一些百度不对的东西，事实上百度后来也因为这个东西掉得很低（如果我能一直空到那时实际上可以赚大钱），但我也确实忽略了一些对百度有利的重要条件，比如政策环境等。总而言之，卖空行为是投机行为，吾不该为之。(2010-09-14)

🧠想做空说明你潜意识就想投机，失败了还好，一旦成功，结果就是把胆子练肥了，失去对市场的敬畏，之后大概率一把就葬送自己之前的成就。这个事情很魔幻，多少天才都中招过。。。

（你觉得自己的理性和自制力比巴芒强还是比段永平强他们都翻车，你就能控制住？）

Do not short! Do not short! Do not short!!!

Now, I deeply understand why Buffett, Munger, and Duan Yongping have always emphasized that one should not short.

Because shorting is speculation. If a certain asset is indeed overpriced and in a bubble, and you want to short it, you are betting on whether most people are rational.

Throughout human history, human irrationality and madness far exceed imagination, and there are too many examples of this.

Even if the price is a bubble, this bubble has unlimited room for expansion, and you cannot bear it. The theoretical profit from shorting is limited, while the risk is unlimited.

Is value investing applicable in the crypto world?

To conclude, the essence remains unchanged, but the form has changed.

The two famous phrases of value investing are 'buying stocks is buying a company' and 'buying a company is buying future cash flow discounted.' These two phrases have been popularized by Buffett and Duan Yongping.

On the surface, Bitcoin has no cash flow, is not a company, and does not belong to the realm of value investing. Other altcoins, some have a securities nature, such as the platform coin BNB, but most are just air, lacking companies and cash flow.

However, this does not mean they have no value; value is defined according to different needs. Future cash flow is just one perspective, and it may be difficult to apply in the crypto world, but there are other indicators of value.

For example, meme coins depend on the quality of the IP, company coins reference stocks, and Bitcoin references gold.

In any case, achieving success is extremely difficult. The reason why value investing is still at the top of the food chain in crypto investing is that those who have achieved great success typically held onto Bitcoin for the long term. $BTC $ETH $BNB #加密股IPO季 #加密市场回调 #价值投资

The cryptocurrency world is a paradise for self-disciplined individuals. Perhaps the charm of being a trader lies here.

Crypto, the core of blockchain is not solely based on its monetary attributes, but rather on the transformation of financial technology.

Those who trade cryptocurrencies know that what can be done with stocks can also be done with blockchain, and even done better.

In traditional scenarios, currency, commodities, and government stocks are separate.

With blockchain technology, these three attributes are unified. This will give rise to a new economic model, which is the token economy.

However, different cryptocurrencies have their own points of emphasis. Bitcoin's most notable features are security and decentralization, so it stands out as a store of value, akin to digital gold.

In the past, if you wanted to start a company from scratch and take it public, you would need to go through early-stage financing, establish a company, create a somewhat credible product, and then expand financing through several rounds in the primary market… Getting to this point is already quite rare, and then you would prepare for an IPO, which requires approval from an exchange to have the opportunity to trade your stock in the secondary market.

Now, with blockchain, even a teenager can issue a token and allow it to be traded in the secondary market.

This can be compared to self-media; in the past, filming, editing, and publishing were monopolized by media companies and state institutions. Now anyone can shoot videos, and often official media can't compete with individuals. Of course, the downsides are evident, with a lot of false information. In blockchain, there are many scams, but this is the trend that cannot be stopped.

Whichever country can allow traditional finance to embrace blockchain technology will occupy the high ground of future world finance. No country has achieved this yet, as larger nations like the US and China become increasingly cumbersome, and the cost of necessary reforms becomes greater.

Currently, the US only recognizes Bitcoin's attributes as digital gold, treating it as a commodity. Bitcoin is separate from the traditional financial system, and blockchain technology has not been applied to traditional finance, although it is currently much faster than in China.

[Practical Tips] A good trader is a steady stream of profit.

Why should you take out profits in time when trading, and don't "snowball" easily?

"From the perspective of risk management, as long as I generate a certain degree of profit, I will take it out, and then start trading with the same capital... I will take it as the "basic point." "

This is the experience of Fairy, a genius futures trader. He has won two championships in the real futures trading competition in Japan, achieving a profit of more than 1000%.

He said that most of his profits are won by "accumulating small profits."

Doing so is not consistent with the snowball of profit we imagine. But it is an effective way to overcome the impatience and greed of our own human nature. Doing so will not make you lose all your previous efforts after a liquidation.

For example, we use 1000U to trade first, and take it out every time we make a profit, and then return to 1000U. When you can really control this part of the principal and can make a continuous and stable profit, then consider expanding the principal of the transaction.

To become a trader, you need to be able to make steady profits as long as possible. The mentality of getting rich overnight is understandable, but you must face and accept the reality.
$BTC $SOL $ETH #BTC突破8W2大关

Non-farm data is significantly below expectations, to an abnormal extent. #市场关注美国非农数据 #美国大选后行情预测 $BTC $ETH $BNB

The non-farm payroll data will be released tonight, which will affect the upcoming monetary policy meeting. I guess the non-farm payroll data might slightly exceed expectations, which means fewer interest rate cuts or a delay in cuts, negatively impacting the cryptocurrency market. If it is below expectations, combined with yesterday's decline, the market might have a strong rebound.
Of course, this is all just speculation; according to tradition, the market will have a noticeable reaction at eight-thirty tonight.
#市场关注美国非农数据 #美国大选后行情预测 #加密货币急跌 $BTC $ETH $BNB

I believe Binance needs to focus on the quality of new coins being launched. For this year's new coins, especially those related to staking and mining, we need to implement a three-in-one approach of selection, incubation, and support.
1. Selection: Conduct strict reviews of project teams, rigorous research and investment, and select good projects with long-term development potential.
2. Incubation: Play the role of an incubator, attracting the best talents and projects from around the world.
3. Support: It's not just about launching and forgetting; we need to invest appropriately and timely in the projects we've launched.

Only by doing this can we achieve high-quality development, leverage the inherent advantages of centralized exchanges, and create a virtuous cycle of the Binance Coin shovel effect and the value-added effect of high-quality new projects: the higher the value of Binance Coin ---》 the better the new launches ---》 the higher the mining benefits ---》 the higher the value of Binance Coin...

In simpler terms: I bought new coins and got stuck, please pump it up fast 😭
#BinanceBlockchainWeek #美国大选后行情预测 #你问我答 $BNB $CATI

The less risk-bearing people are, the more they tend to take risks.

Two years ago, I rented a house in Guangming District, Shenzhen for a month. It was a village in the city. It was shabby outside, but clean inside. The rent was about 600, which was considered low in Shenzhen.

Most of my neighbors work in factories or deliver takeout. Their income is not bad. They get more pay for more work.

The house is not soundproof. I can clearly hear the sound of my neighbor's mobile phone at night. I can hear that the person next to me is playing online gambling every day. I don't know what it is, but at least it's not that kind of sound...

Many people say that if you have little capital, you can only give it a try and make a big move to turn things around quickly. This is an absolutely wrong view. Nine out of ten times, the capital will explode at the speed of light.

And it is not difficult to imagine that people who tend to make moves are likely to borrow money or even loan sharks to speculate in cryptocurrencies and stocks...

So what is the right way to do it?

Good medicine tastes bitter, but the way is simple. I believe most people understand the truth. The correct approach is to do your current work well in your life when you are outside the market, whether you are at work or working on your own, and control the pace of life first.

In addition, save some money. Before buying something, be aware of whether you really need it? Or are you being swayed by the consumerist trap implanted in your mind?

Then keep enough money for your own living, and take out a part of the money that will not have a big impact on you to invest.

"The Art of War" by Sun Tzu is full of pearls: "Therefore, those who are good at fighting are in an invincible position, and do not miss the enemy's defeat. Therefore, the victorious army wins first and then seeks to fight, and the defeated army fights first and then seeks to win. Those who are good at using troops cultivate the way and protect the law, so they can make policies for victory and defeat."

The most important thing is to be in an invincible position first. If you do a good job of risk isolation and invest a part of the money that will not hurt you, you are in an invincible position first. It is to win first and then fight. You have lived a good life. Whether you invest or not, you are in a relatively comfortable state (win first). At this time, when you invest again, your mentality is more stable than most people. (Fight again) #6万保卫战 #9月美国CPI实现6连降 $BTC

$TAO provides an insignificant information about TAO. Just read it for fun. For an introduction to TAO, you can read the previous one.

TAO's company is Bittensor. Why is the token called TAO? In fact, TAO is the English version of the Chinese word "Tao". It is the Tao Te Ching. The founder also engraved the full text of the English version of the Tao Te Ching on the Genesis Block.

I am optimistic about this project in the long run. At least it is a project with ecology and narrative. It belongs to the hot spot such as AI. In addition, it is also endorsed by great scientists.

But it is difficult to do short-term, and it is difficult to do both long and short. Because for its market value, the trading volume and liquidity are not good, and it is easy to be cut.
$TAO #6万保卫战 #TAO是人工智能的比特币

$BTC $BNB TAO: Visually understand what Bittensor does.

TAO is the leader of AI, but it is not developing AI, but providing a market related to AI.

Participants can develop and train their own AI on the subnet, and then stay active on the network to get TAO token rewards.

The idealism lies in: they believe that AI should not be monopolized by centralization, and the development of AI should be protected by the distributed method of blockchain.

The specific method is to leave it to the market. It is the same as the underlying logic of Bitcoin, but Bitcoin mining is just calculating some calculations, wasting computing power in vain, and TAO uses this computing power to train AI.

The actual situation is that AI is actually still more efficient in centralized operation like ChatGPT. What's more, the current large model LLM has not created any huge economic benefits and is still in the experimental stage. But this is not a problem, and it is not a disadvantage in the currency circle if it has no actual value.
#TAO是人工智能的比特币🚀 #6万保卫战 #9月美国CPI实现6连降 $TAO

The more Binance is boycotted in certain areas, the more it shows that it is strong and correct.

The more fines are imposed, the more firmly BNB should be held.

Just like Huawei and Tiktalk, they have shaken the solid position of those people. And Binance is even more outrageous, because it is in the financial field, and its power is exponential.

But after all, domestic enterprises are protected by national power, and Binance faces more challenges.

But believe in the power of the masses, Binance is currently the world's best centralized exchange, and those who win the hearts of the people will win the world.
#币安用户数突破2亿 #BNB
$BNB

Bitcoin is often compared to digital gold in the crypto world, and I agree. I don't think Bitcoin will kill legal tender. On the contrary, the existence of Bitcoin can make the operation of legal tender more in line with current needs.

Speaking of legal tender, the textbook says that legal tender is guaranteed by the credit of the country. In addition to security, the most important thing about this credit is the circulation of currency, that is, the country cannot print money indiscriminately.

This currency circulation is the amount of currency needed in circulation, which is linked to production and consumption, but the bottom layer is value anchoring.

For example, in the original Bretton Woods system of the US dollar, the US dollar was called the US dollar, which was anchored to gold. Later, a more suitable anchor was oil. Oil is the blood of industry. The more oil a country consumes, it can also be seen as its productivity is stronger, and the currency it needs is more.

At the time when Bitcoin was born, the financial crisis swept the world again, and it was also because the world had changed again, and the original financial system began to adapt.

One of the changes is computing power. The so-called third information revolution, today, in addition to energy, how to use energy is more important. There are too many things that the Internet and mobile devices can do, and the Internet relies on computing power.

In the so-called Web2 era, major companies mainly relied on products and sufficient computing power. But now it is different. Big data and artificial intelligence require a large amount of computing power in addition to sufficient manpower.

It may not be the case now, but in the near future, computing power is the value anchor of a country. Simply put, the stronger the computing power of a country, the stronger its productivity, the more prosperous its economy, and the more circulating currency it needs. (Of course, this is still very rough)

There is a seemingly absurd fact that Bitcoin consumes extremely large computing power, even a thousand times that of Google! This computing power has no other use except mining. Let's not go into what this is used for, but mining directly shows that computing power = wealth. #BTC走势分析 #内容挖矿 #MegadropLista $BTC $ETH $BNB

Good coins need the founder to run away.

A high-quality crypto project must have its founder sacrificed to heaven. Cryptocurrency emphasizes consensus, and the most basic consensus is the degree of decentralization.

A cryptocurrency project has two birthdays. The first is the day when the founder creates it, the white paper, the genesis block; the second is the day when the founder runs away.

It doesn't necessarily mean that the founder runs away, but only that the founder's influence is reduced to a certain extent. Specific manifestations include running away, retiring, being kicked out of the team, being imprisoned, etc.

Then everything is given to the community. This stage is a period of rapid development of the project and also determines the prospects of the project. At this time, everything depends on the quality of the community. At this time, the project may become a pyramid scheme fraud project because of a bad community; it may also be a legendary project incubated by a group of idealistic and ambitious people.

Then it will enter the "re-centralization" stage. The interesting thing about the currency circle project is that the head of the project is constantly changing, exchanging chips in a dramatic and bloody contest. In this process, a new kind of centralization is also formed.

For example, Doge has no founder, and Musk is the dog king. This may be the peak of a project. Whether it can develop in the future depends on liquidity and whether the chips can flow again.

#山寨币热点 #BTC走势分析 $DOGE
$BTC

The big discussion about non-farm data has basically cooled down.

More and more people know that the Fed is unwilling to cut interest rates. I won't ask you for your reasons, just listen to what you are going to do, just listen.

The logic of "Good employment data - strong US economy - Fed will not cut interest rates" is what the non-farm data wants you to deduce.

Take the last non-farm data released in April. Employment exceeded expectations. What are the 300,000 new jobs: 70,000 in medical care, 70,000 in government departments, 50,000 in leisure hotels, 40,000 in construction... It means that more people in society are running to be caregivers, take civil service exams, and engage in the service industry.

If the new jobs are concentrated in manufacturing and high-tech industries, then the economy is indeed strong, but who can see that the economy is very hot now?

People do work very hard to become more competitive, and then at this time they say that because you all have found jobs and the economic situation is very good, you need to cool down, not cut interest rates, or even raise interest rates again, and give you more. Is this reasonable?

The simplest thing is to ignore the cause and effect. The only important point is:

Don't want to cut interest rates, not that you don't need to cut interest rates.

What's more, this is the cryptocurrency circle. Even if there is a large amount of money released, there will be fewer people coming here.

The cryptocurrency circle is driven by emotions. Various macro-favorable policies are one of the factors used to flirt. Without this benefit, there are others, and you can always find a way. The key to emotional pull is still freshness, to see if there is a new narrative, and whether there is a dramatic effect.

For example, if the Fed continues to postpone interest rate cuts or even interest rate hikes after a long drought, you will first think that it will be the same next time. Then, at a certain time, there is a sudden and unexpected interest rate cut and money release, and the market sentiment will be pulled up all of a sudden. At this time, the reaction amplitude and speed of the cryptocurrency circle must be greater than other markets.
#BTC走势分析 #非农就业数据 #大盘走势
$BTC $ETH $SOL

Everyone is talking about the US non-farm payrolls, the Fed's rate cut expectations, and the US election.

These are also important news, just pay attention to them in real time, but it doesn't mean you can't play without them, not to mention that this is the cryptocurrency circle.

If you are optimistic about a coin in the long term, as long as the coin itself has no problems and no fatal mines, then the changes in the outside world will only affect its temporary price.

Buy it when it falls, and you will have crossed thousands of mountains by getting it.

But the most critical step is the question of which coin to choose, so it is better to spend your energy on this.
#BTC走势分析 #美联储何时降息？ #比特币现货ETF持续淨流出 $BTC $BNB $SOL

When the market is good, I open the exchange every 10 minutes to check, start thinking about value investment, plan for the future, and chat and laugh with Buffett in my mind.
Browse Twitter and Binance Square at any time to find wealth opportunities. Sometimes this coin is optimistic about the long term, and sometimes that coin has completed the bottoming. Drink a cup of coffee in your spare time, open the official account to read industry information, quiet and leisurely but also fulfilling and rich, like a Wall Street wolf🐺.

When the market is bad, there are no bullets in my hand, and there is no time to study. I am in a low mood, and the trivialities of life make you breathless. I dare not open it to check the market. I dare not buy it even though it has reached the ideal bottom-fishing price.
Every day, I watch the shrinkage of my already small assets, and I can only imagine that the market will usher in a change. Later, I became numb and didn’t think about it. Suddenly one day, I couldn’t remember how much money my account had at the beginning, and I accidentally cut my losses.

At first, I heard "others are afraid of your greed, and others are greedy and you are afraid". I think this should not be a very simple truth? And I feel ridiculous for chasing ups and downs. I don’t understand why so many people can’t invest rationally. Later, I gradually discovered and experienced it myself. It turns out that this is just the original characteristic of human nature.

When the sun is shining, the mood is naturally happy; when it is cloudy and rainy, the mood gradually becomes low.

Is there really a right way to invest? Then why doesn't everyone become a millionaire through investment? Maybe it's like fitness. The method is there, but most people have average body shapes. Because what is really valuable is to really consciously execute and do it, while most people are in ignorance.

As long as you can strictly stop loss, you can keep the green mountains; as long as you can make fixed investments, you can stay with the market, and you will not die until Bitcoin dies.

I have deeply experienced that the truth is so simple, but it is difficult for a human being to strictly implement it. I talk a lot of big truths, but I can't really execute it 100%. But I already feel that I am completely different from when I just entered the industry in the last cycle.

#5月市场关键事件 #大盘走势

$BTC $ETH $BNB

TAO is the token of Bittensor. It is not "套" (set), but "道" (Tao) in English. This project is closely related to AI, but not directly AI.

The heat has faded, and now we can start talking about TAO. It has been a while since it was launched on Binance. I dare say that 99% of people don't know what this coin is for. I only know a little bit about it at present. Please correct me.

This project is very profound. To be honest, it is very difficult to truly understand it. It requires not only technical knowledge, but also understanding of the economic model of the market... If you have a thorough study of the Bitcoin white paper, it will be very helpful.

In a word, this project is a peer-to-peer smart market. The ultimate vision of this market is to target artificial intelligence, so that artificial intelligence can be decentralized and belong to ordinary people from the bottom up. (Instead of being concentrated in the head)

This smart market can market and monetize machine learning resources (such as models, computing power, data, storage, etc.). TAO is a token used to incentivize this market.

This project can be regarded as a computer, a distributed shared computer, so that you can train your own smart model without huge computing power resources and talent advantages.

This network is implemented through Yuma consensus, but I can't understand Rao Yuma yet. #大盘走势 #比特币减半 #TAO

$TAO $BTC

Share a method to quickly read white papers.

By using this domestic large model Kimi, you can easily read a project's white paper, especially when you encounter a whole article in English, the summary with its own translation will be very helpful.

This large model is called Kimi, and the company is MoonshotAI. You can directly search for MoonshotAI on the official account to see how to use it.

This is a serious company, don't be fooled. Alibaba, Sequoia, etc. have all invested in it, and it directly raised 1 billion US dollars at that time.

The advantage of this Kimi is the interpretation of long texts. You can directly entrust the file to it, and it can parse the text according to your instructions.
#比特币减半 #大盘走势 #人工智能
$BTC $TAO