区块楚洋

This year, many people may have noticed a subtle phenomenon: many smokers are buying cigarettes faster, without needing to take the stairs or the elevator. While observing these micro-behavior changes, we should also turn our attention to the macroeconomic level. Recently, U.S. Treasury yields have been continuously declining, a signal that is worth paying close attention to — it not only reflects the market's adjustment in expectations for economic growth but may also indicate deeper financial turmoil.

It is worth noting that the recently disclosed GDP data for the first quarter of 2025 showed negative growth, shrinking by 0.3% year-on-year, marking the worst performance since 2022. This data reflects a significant decline in economic growth momentum. Alarmingly, this slowdown is occurring against a backdrop of escalating global supply chain frictions and rising trade protectionism — if even the defensive tactics against the trade war fail to offset the economic downturn, it highlights the inherent vulnerability of the economy.

In this context, political factors may exacerbate market volatility. As a unique figure who embodies both businessman and politician identities, if Trump returns to the White House, his habitual "business mindset" could become an unstable factor in the financial market. Looking back at his first term, it showcased a dual-strike strategy against the capital market: on one hand, tightening regulations on digital currencies to withdraw liquidity from the crypto space, and on the other hand, using family assets to position for short-selling profits in U.S. stocks. This "harvesting" style of governance essentially creates market volatility through policy disturbances to generate arbitrage opportunities for specific capital operations. If he regains power, similar market manipulation tactics may become even more intensified.

Based on a comprehensive judgment of multiple overlapping variables, 2025-2026 may become a critical turning point for international financial markets. From the inversion of the U.S. Treasury yield curve to the deterioration of corporate profitability, from the accumulation of geopolitical risks to the narrowing of monetary policy space, these signs together point to a brewing systemic crisis. Especially in the U.S. stock market, the current divergence between a high valuation environment and a slowing real economy is becoming increasingly evident. If coupled with the impact of political uncertainty, a year-end circuit breaker may not be mere alarmism — this will be another severe test of the resilience of the financial system following the shocks of the pandemic in 2020.

Since I entered the cryptocurrency space in 2017, I have experienced countless ups and downs in the market, deeply understanding the unpredictability of the crypto world. As the saying goes, 'One day in the crypto world is like a year in the human world,' the market here changes rapidly. In this tempting yet risky market, investing is a gradual process that cannot be rushed. 90% of Buffett's wealth was accumulated after the age of 50, and his success stems from long-term persistence and a profound understanding of the market. We should not make blind decisions based on temporary market fluctuations, but rather maintain calm and rationality, patiently waiting for wealth to grow.

In cryptocurrency investment, risks and opportunities coexist. Let us look forward to Bitcoin's future performance and also hope to realize our wealth dreams in this challenging and opportunistic market. #加密市场反弹 #比特币战略储备

$BTC Bitcoin has recently formed a converging triangle pattern in the 4-hour and 6-hour levels, with each cycle showing alternating characteristics of 'increased small upward candles and sudden drops with no volume.' This volume-price divergence is also significant in the shorter time frames of 1 hour and 15 minutes, suggesting a subtle change in the balance of bullish and bearish forces.
2. The characteristic of floating liquidity digestion is obvious.
Calculating from the previous low, the rebound of this round has reached about 20% for certain cryptocurrencies. Through on-chain data tracking, it has been found that the area of large pending orders has moved closer to the resistance level, with the volume of main sell orders increasing by about 37% compared to last week, indicating that profit-taking is being executed in an orderly manner.
3. Market effects of expectation digestion.
Although the non-farm payroll data shows a neutral preference, the opening did not sustain the overnight upward trend and instead dipped to test the support of the 60-day moving average, which verifies that the market has already priced in most of the favorable factors. This phenomenon usually occurs during the 'expectation fulfillment-correction' phase before the announcement of major economic data.
One can observe changes in trading volume on the hourly chart; if three consecutive candles maintain a reduced volume sideways, it may indicate a directional choice in the short term. Key support/resistance levels need to be assessed in conjunction with changes in blockchain network addresses. So, someone might ask, how do I view Bitcoin? Personally, I am bearish, which does not constitute investment advice. #非农就业数据来袭 #加密市场反弹

Is there anyone holding DOT? I would like to share some thoughts on $DOT
DOT (Polkadot) In-depth Analysis and Investment Logic
1. Technical Positioning and Ecological Value
As a pioneer in the cross-chain protocol field, Polkadot's technical architecture is designed by Ethereum co-founder Gavin Wood, featuring a modular validation mechanism and parallel chain scalability. The current ecosystem has formed a complete layout in fields such as DeFi, cross-chain communication, and DAO. The Polkadot Treasury fund pool continues to support the development of ecological projects, demonstrating industry foresight in its technical underlying logic.
2. Competitive Landscape and Market Dilemmas
Compared to Chainlink's (possibly referring to the project) monopoly on oracle services, Polkadot faces dual challenges: first, the actual demand for cross-chain interaction scenarios has not yet exploded, and users are highly sensitive to the security premium of cross-chain asset transfers; second, the token inflation model brought about by its NPoS consensus mechanism (annual issuance rate of about 10%) continues to dilute the rights of holders.
3. Valuation Logic and Market Cycle
The current market capitalization of $6.4 billion reflects a neutral expectation for the cross-chain track. Observing historical price trends:
Above $30: Corresponds to the DeFi Summer bubble period in 2021, where the technical premium has been fully priced in.
$20-$30 range: Need to observe whether the restart of parallel chain auctions can activate ecological development.
Below $10: Close to the token release cost line, providing a long-term holding safety margin.
My suggested operational strategy:
1. Technical Timing: Use a weekly Bollinger Bands strategy, entering positions when the price touches the 20-month moving average and the RSI is below 30, combined with MACD bottom divergence signals to enhance effectiveness.
2. Position Management: It is recommended to allocate no more than 15% of the crypto asset portfolio, focusing on catalyst events such as parallel chain slot auctions and XCMP protocol upgrades.
3. Risk Management: Set dynamic stop-loss lines (e.g., 50-week moving average) to avoid excessive chasing during the late stage of a bull market.
Core Conflicts and Outlook:
In the short term, the adoption rate of cross-chain technology is constrained by the performance competition of Layer 1 public chains; in the medium to long term, it depends on the implementation progress of Web 3.0 metaverse applications. If cross-chain standards like Cosmos IBC and Polkadot XCMP can achieve breakthroughs in interoperability, DOT may become the settlement layer infrastructure of a multi-chain universe. The TVL (Total Value Locked) of the Polkadot ecosystem is only $320 million, down 85% from its historical peak, and the fundamental repair still requires time. #非农就业数据来袭 #加密市场反弹

$BTC
$ETH
Have you all eaten? Did anyone go long yesterday during that wave? If you get a little good, you might think today the big pancake will rise to 100,000 Ethereum and today will reach 1,900. Let's talk data and technology, otherwise, you'll just be handing it over to the market. Any direction will inevitably have news in advance. If you can't control it, then it's purely gambling on whether Ming is tough or not! #非农就业数据来袭 #比特币战略储备

When I first started trading cryptocurrencies, I stayed up late every day, watching the market and chasing prices, losing sleep over my losses. Later, I insisted on using just one method, and surprisingly, I survived and slowly began to make stable profits. #
Looking back now, this method, although clumsy, is effective: "If I don't see the signals I'm familiar with, I absolutely won't act!" $BTC
Better to miss the market than to place random orders.
With this iron rule, I can now maintain an annual return rate of over 70%, and I no longer have to rely on luck to survive.
Here are a few life-saving tips for beginners, all based on my real trading experience:
1. Place orders only after 9 PM, leave 167☝️🚗 below
During the day, the information is too chaotic, with various false good news and bad news flying around, causing the market to jump around like a fit. It's very easy to be deceived into entering the market.
I usually wait until after 9 PM to trade; by then, the news is basically stable, and the candlestick charts are cleaner, making the direction clearer.
2. Look at indicators, not feelings
Don’t trade based on feelings.
Before placing an order, check these indicators:
• MACD: Are there any golden crosses or death crosses?
• RSI: Is there overbought or oversold?
• Bollinger Bands: Is there a contraction or a breakout?
Only consider entering the market if at least two of the three indicators give consistent signals.
4. Stop-loss: Dignity is more important than money
⛔️ "Cut losses immediately if the direction is wrong; hesitate for a second, and you'll lose 10%"
• Fixed stop-loss method: 3% of the principal is the red line.
• Dynamic stop-loss method: After a 50% floating profit, a 20% pullback must be exited.
5. Withdraw funds on time every week
For example, if you earned 5000U this week, don't always think about doubling it! I suggest you withdraw 1500U to your bank card immediately, and continue playing with the rest.
I have seen too many people who "earned 3-5 times," only to lose everything back after a single pullback. Keep rolling over the rest. Over time, this way, your account will keep getting thicker. #Current situation in the cryptocurrency circle
6. There are tricks to reading candlestick charts
• For short-term trading, look at the 1-hour chart: If the price has two consecutive bullish candlesticks, you can consider going long. #Bitcoin and U.S. tariff policy
• If the market is stagnant, switch to the 4-hour chart to find support lines: Only consider entering the market when it drops near the support level. #非农就业数据来袭 #加密市场反弹

Just in time for the weekend to make up for the May Day holiday, going camping with Yan Zi in the evening, if I have time, I will continue the order later! #加密市场反弹 #比特币战略储备

Currently, the CMC Altcoin Season Index continues to decline, and the market remains in a clear Bitcoin-dominated cycle. In an environment of existing capital competition, Bitcoin exhibits a significant "bloodsucking effect," continuously attracting market funds, leading to relatively weak performance of altcoins.

Historical data shows that the start of Altcoin Season usually requires waiting for Bitcoin to complete its first pullback. Before this, the market's risk-reward ratio is not favorable for altcoin trading.

Based on the current market environment, the most robust investment strategy is to maintain a 100% Bitcoin position, waiting for the first adjustment signal after Bitcoin's upward momentum weakens, at which point more valuable investment opportunities will arise. #加密市场反弹 #比特币战略储备

$ETH Continued watching, there will be a big market next, eat the roots ☝️, leaving 167 below ☝️🚗#加密市场反弹 #比特币战略储备

$SOL If this round of the bull market continues, the AI sector may become the core driving force of the second round of the market. It is recommended to focus on three major subfields: AI agent protocol layer tokens, hybrid assets combining meme attributes with AI technology implementation, and mainstream public chain leaders supported by computing infrastructure.

Potential target selection logic:

1. Technical innovation dimension: Prioritize projects that achieve breakthroughs in core algorithms (e.g., SUI's asynchronous parallel processing architecture, theoretical TPS can reach over 50,000)

2. Ecological construction indicators: Focus on developer activity (DAU on the SOL chain increased by 47% month-over-month) and TVL scale (BNB Chain daily active addresses exceeded 6 million)

3. Depth of capital accumulation: Monitor the sustainability of large fund inflows (BNB spot ETF filing documents reveal institutional allocation demand exceeds $1.2 billion)

Risk hedging suggestions: $SUI leave 167☝️🛻
• Volatility management: Set a dynamic take profit and stop loss line of 8%-12%
• Sector rotation warning: Pay attention to market sentiment turning points when the market capitalization ratio of the CoinGecko AI sector exceeds 15%
• Policy tracking: Focus on monitoring the SEC's progress on the classification of AI tokens as securities.

Mainstream public chain value reassessment:
SOL (Solana) current PE (circulating market value/on-chain income) has fallen to 18x, below the historical average of 24x, indicating room for valuation recovery. BNB, as the core token of the Layer1+DeFi ecosystem, may have its price discovery mechanism catalyzed by spot ETF expectations.

Operational strategy: $BNB
It is recommended to adopt a "core + satellite" allocation:
• Core position (60%): Build positions in SUI/SOL in three batches (price retracement to the 30-day moving average)
• Satellite position (30%): Allocate AI + MEME composite tokens
• Liquidity management: Retain 10% of the position for sector rotation arbitrage
The allocation ratio should not exceed 20% of total assets and should focus on dynamically adjusting based on real-time market sentiment indicators (such as the Alternative.me Fear & Greed Index). Pay attention to changes in the VIX fear index and Bitcoin funding rates. #加密市场反弹 #特朗普就职百日

Why do contracts always get liquidated? It's not bad luck; you simply don't understand the essence of trading! This article, encapsulating ten years of trading experience, presents low-risk rules that will completely change your understanding of contract trading — liquidation is never the market's fault, but a time bomb you planted yourself.
Leverage ≠ Risk: Position size is the lifeline
Core formula: Real risk = Leverage × Position ratio.
Stop-loss ≠ Loss: The ultimate insurance for your account
In the 312 crash of 2024, 78% of liquidated accounts shared a common characteristic: losses exceeded 5% without setting stop-loss. A professional trader's rule: a single loss should not exceed 2% of the principal, which is equivalent to setting a "circuit fuse" for your account.
Rolling positions ≠ All in: The correct way to compound
Laddered position building model: Initial position 10% for trial, add 10% of profits to position. Starting with 50,000 principal, initial position 5,000 (10x leverage), add 500 when profit increases by 10%. When BTC rises from 75,000 to 82,500, total position only expands by 10%, but safety margin increases by 30%.
Dynamic position formula
Total position ≤ (Principal × 2%) / (Stop-loss range × Leverage)
Example: 50,000 principal, 2% stop-loss, 10x leverage, maximum position calculated as = 50000 × 0.02 / (0.02 × 10) = 5000
Three-step profit-taking method
① Close 1/3 at 20% profit ② Close another 1/3 at 50% profit ③ Move stop-loss on remaining position (exit below 5-day line)
In the 2024 halving market, this strategy increased a 50,000 principal to a million across two trends, with a return rate exceeding 1900%
Deadly trap empirical data
Holding a position for 4 hours: Probability of liquidation rises to 92%
High-frequency trading: Average of 500 trades per month results in a 24% loss of principal
Greed in profit: Failure to take timely profits leads to an 83% account profit drawdown
Four, Expression of the Essence of Trading
Expected profit = (Win rate × Average profit) - (Loss rate × Average loss)
When setting a 2% stop-loss and 20% take-profit, only a 34% win rate is needed to achieve positive returns. Professional traders achieve annualized returns of over 400% by strictly enforcing stop-loss (average loss of 1.5%) and trend capture (average profit of 15%).
Ultimate rules:
Single loss ≤ 2%
Annual trades ≤ 20
Win-loss ratio ≥ 3:1
70% of the time in cash waiting
The essence of the market is a probability game; smart traders use 2% risk to capture trend dividends. Remember: Control your losses, and profits will run. Establish a mechanical trading system, letting discipline replace emotional decision-making, which is the ultimate answer for sustained profitability.

The long positions have been cleared, focus on the unemployment rate and non-farm data tonight at 8:30! #加密市场反弹 #比特币战略储备 left 167 below 🐳

Master's Ten-Year Trading Philosophy!
1. Market Sentiment and Institutional Trends: Double Support for Bull Market Expectations
The warming expectation of a bull market in the cryptocurrency space by 2025 is closely related to the dual impetus of market sentiment and institutional funds. On one hand, the continuous capital-absorbing effect of Bitcoin spot ETFs is significant, with Wall Street giants like BlackRock and Fidelity massively increasing their Bitcoin holdings through ETF channels, pushing their institutional holdings to break historical peaks. For example, MicroStrategy has cumulatively held 528,000 BTC at an average cost of $67,458 per coin, with a total value exceeding $35.6 billion, becoming the largest listed company holder of Bitcoin globally.
Technical data also supports the bull market logic. After Bitcoin breaks $100,000 in Q1 2025, the price pattern presents a 'cup and handle breakout' structure, targeting $150,000; meanwhile, after the Ethereum upgrade to the Hyperliquid network, its staking yield is linked to ecological revenue, providing fundamental support for the price. Additionally, the explosive growth of the Solana ecosystem (such as the emergence of a Solana version of 'MicroStrategy') and the community-driven effects of meme coins are also injecting liquidity into the market. Below is left 167s🐳
2. Cyclical Patterns and Halving Effects: A Real Reflection of Historical Experience
From a cyclical perspective, Bitcoin's halving event, occurring every four years, often serves as a catalyst for bull markets. The fourth halving in April 2024 will reduce the block reward to 3.125 BTC/block, with the annual inflation rate dropping to 0.8% (lower than gold), significantly tightening supply. Historical data shows that 12-18 months after halving usually welcomes a price explosion period, and 2025 coincides with this window period.
However, the halving effect is not the only driving force. The formation of the 2025 bull market also needs to be combined with the macroeconomic environment: if the Federal Reserve implements a rate-cutting policy, liquidity easing will drive up risk assets; while increasing global economic uncertainty (such as geopolitical risks) may enhance Bitcoin's safe-haven attributes. For example, VanEck predicts that Bitcoin's price will exceed $180,000 in 2025, potentially reaching $200,000 under extreme conditions; this target is related to institutional demand, the halving effect, and macro liquidity resonance.
3. Risk Factors and Market Volatility: In-Depth Analysis of Potential Challenges
Despite strong bull market expectations, the market still faces multiple risks. First, the uncertainty of regulatory policies is the biggest variable. #加密市场反弹 #Strategy增持比特币

The polarization phenomenon in the altcoin market is becoming increasingly evident, with hot coins and valuable coins continuing to rebound, while junk coins are struggling at the bottom, declining instead of rising. This round of bull market has not brought about a general rise in all coins; the polarization within the cryptocurrency circle is intensifying. The current market situation is entirely different from the bull market of 2020, and one should no longer hope for a deep retracement or a scenario where all coins rise together. Market trends will not simply repeat, and the actions of the main players are often unexpected. As the ancients said: 'One cannot step into the same river twice.' Many people only focus on appearances but fail to grasp the essence behind them. The cryptocurrency circle always follows the 80/20 rule; if one cannot understand this, they will never be able to see the deep logic behind the candlestick charts. Some people make a bit of money and mistakenly believe they have seized a true opportunity, starting to fantasize about getting rich quickly, blindly increasing their positions, and eventually falling into the quagmire of greed. However, behind the madness of the cryptocurrency circle, there often lies a tragedy full of remnants, which are often overlooked. True wisdom lies in seeing the truth contained within the tragedy. In the current hot market context, we should focus more on how to cope with the impending bear market after the bull market and how to assess the real opportunities in the future. Only with a long-term perspective, careful consideration, and a down-to-earth approach can one establish a solid footing in the cryptocurrency circle and move forward more steadily and sustainably. One should not merely fixate on the immediate ups and downs but should learn to view the current market with a long-term vision of 5 to 10 years. Otherwise, if the market changes, it may catch you off guard. The stories in the cryptocurrency circle are always cycling between joy and sorrow; today, are you listening to someone else's story or telling your own 'accident'? As for how the market will develop, we can hardly control it, but we can respond flexibly: if the bulls are strong, go with the flow; if the bears are fierce, decisively hedge. Earning money that you can understand and have the most confidence in, and obtaining the returns you deserve, is already enough.

In the vibrant and opportunity-filled realm of the digital asset market in 2025, AI cryptocurrency undoubtedly stands out as the most dazzling presence, akin to the focal point of a spectacular adventure party. When the two disruptive technologies, AI and blockchain, join forces, they open up a whole new frontier in the digital finance world, and the five tokens TAO, FLOKI, BLUR, STX, and 62372449317NEAR shine brightly as 'treasures of wealth' in this emerging field. TAO is like a technical prodigy, perfectly integrating AI with decentralized protocols; its solid and reliable infrastructure resembles a sturdy castle, while its unparalleled scalability seems to give this castle wings to soar. Developers and investors flock like explorers holding treasure maps, firmly believing that following in TAO's footsteps will lead them to the pinnacle of success. FLOKI, on the other hand, resembles a vibrant adventurer, forging ahead, constantly breaking boundaries, and expanding its ecosystem. Strong community support acts as its powerful backing, while its profit strategy resembles a hidden sword, gradually transforming it from a highly regarded hot coin into a comprehensive AI platform, with its future profit potential resembling pearls waiting to be mined from the deep sea, full of infinite possibilities. BLUR is more like a thoughtful service master, seamlessly integrating AI analytical capabilities with market platforms, providing digital artists and collectors with an unprecedented experience. It shines like a brilliant star in the digital art world, attracting countless loyal fans. STX is akin to a magical wizard, injecting new vitality into Bitcoin smart contracts through AI tools, allowing it to transcend its original functions and shine on a broader stage. It resembles a magic wealth wand in the digital world, which, with a gentle wave, can bring substantial returns to its holders. The 62372449317NEAR protocol is a powerhouse representative, solidifying its position in the industry with its outstanding blockchain architecture and AI-driven innovations. It resembles a giant ship sailing through the digital ocean, carrying us toward the shores of wealth.

The current dominance of Bitcoin in the cryptocurrency market has risen to its highest point in four years, stabilizing between 63% and 66%. In my opinion, this level is already quite high. After observing the 4-hour chart of Bitcoin's dominance (btc.d), I found that its trend exhibits a 'diagonal' formation, seemingly approaching its conclusion. I am closely monitoring a yellow trend line, and once it is broken, it may herald the start of the 'altcoin season'—at which point other cryptocurrencies will begin a strong upward trend. Surprisingly, even with Bitcoin performing so strongly, the CRV currency is still showing excellent performance. I can only speculate that if Bitcoin's dominance peaks and begins to decline, CRV's performance could become even more remarkable. It can be said that once the 'altcoin season' truly kicks off, CRV breaking through the $4 mark within weeks will be a matter of course.#山寨币ETF展望 #Strategy增持比特币 #特朗普就职百日

I am happier than you for your earnings, getting recognition from old friends is the best proof of strength 😀 The foundation is solid and benefits are coming, a new month has begun, this month is about to be legendary! Are you all ready! $ETH
#特朗普税改 #Strategy增持比特币

mkr1497 has secured 20 points, currently on an 11-game winning streak. Next, let's see if the prompt can connect. If we can protect our capital, let's exit near that level. If it doesn't go up, take the loss directly! Today's overall trend remains bearish across the board! #特朗普税改

$MKR precise entry point, just hold on and wait to cash out! Currently on a ten-game winning streak! A big market trend is coming! Leave 167☝️🚗! #特朗普税改 #SEC推迟多个现货ETF审批

$ETH Trends in the front, layout in the back, steady profit! If you haven't sold, you can continue to hold! #特朗普税改 #Strategy增持比特币
$BTC
$SOL