Crypto-荔枝

After the false breakout in the early morning surge, the market has experienced a pullback of five thousand points. The price has now fallen below the previous support level of 102500, breaking the short-term support at the bottom, which means there is still room for the market to retrace.

From the perspective of the daily horizontal structure, the comparison between yesterday and today makes it seem as though what happened this morning never occurred. However, the structure has been broken, resulting in a transition from bullish to bearish.

At the daily level, it is highly likely that we need to first see a wave of correction before there is a chance for a high test. Therefore, intraday operations can follow a short position strategy, while keeping an eye on the support levels below at 101400 - 100700.

On the Ethereum side, it is following the decline without participating in the rise. The daily chart clearly shows a downtrend, with the upward momentum being very weak.

Intra-day resistance is at 2410. If the rebound fails to break through this level, the daily chart will further adjust to correct, with a target to watch around 2270.

The differences between May 19, 2021, and the present (2025) are numerous:

In 2021, first, it was at the end phase of a frenzied bull market cycle, with altcoins experiencing significant gains, leading to deeper subsequent declines;

Second, it was affected by a one-size-fits-all policy from the government;

Third, Bitcoin holdings were dispersed, with a majority held by retail investors, and there were no ETFs at that time, with Wall Street institutions participating very little.

The situation in 2025 is entirely different; if Bitcoin were to halve, it would essentially be giving away chips, so at most, it would just create some panic today.

Moreover, today’s market movement is also related to the U.S. Treasury Secretary's statement that "failure to negotiate will restore reciprocal tariffs," linking to Trump’s previous comments about "new tariffs," which has triggered some panic. The Nasdaq dropped throughout the morning, and the U.S. stock market is expected to decline when it opens tonight.

Overall, the Ethereum trend is relatively weak, breaking below the normal oscillation channel, but it feels like market manipulators are intentionally creating panic for domestic investors, and perhaps things will stabilize after tonight.

In the current cycle, the main hot sectors are AI, RWA, and MEME.

Last year, AI was the dominant sector, followed by RWA, with MEME in third place. However, this year AI has dropped to third position.

AI technology evolves rapidly, with swift shifts in hot topics, from computing power, parameters, and data accumulation to multimodal and vertical industry applications, and then the emergence of Agents. Just in the field of Agents, last year representative individuals like GOAT, platforms like Virtual, and architectures like Eliza were all the rage, but now they have largely entered a phase of deflation.

Currently, ALCH, a no-code Agent development platform, is on the rise against the trend, benefiting from chip accumulation and the ease of being boosted by hot topics.

I expect that a number of no-code development tool AI products will emerge one after another, and if combined with concepts related to MCP, it may lead to a third wave of enthusiasm for AI.

Recently, Bitcoin has been fluctuating at a high level. Whenever the price drops to a small support level, it is always pulled back. At this moment, its price has once again approached a new short-term high.

From the analysis of various indicators, the probability of Bitcoin breaking through the current price level is relatively high. If it can successfully break through and stabilize, then a new round of upward trend for Bitcoin will begin.

Of course, if it falls below the hundred thousand price level again, it is estimated that it will be difficult to hold on. However, in my personal opinion, the probability of Bitcoin breaking through is still somewhat higher.

The market has never provided that kind of 'comfortable and perfect' trading position; in most cases, it is filled with contradictions and uncertainties.

For traders, what they need to do is not to seek a 'one-size-fits-all' method, nor to pursue the so-called 'simplicity of the great way', but to understand that this 'uncomfortable' state is itself an indispensable part of trading.

Traders should focus their energy on those few positions that align with their own logic and odds requirements, and then repeatedly operate in these positions to gain an advantage in probability.

It is important to know that even without predicting the direction of the market, one can still make money.

BNB is currently consolidating above the support level of 657 USD, showing a positive trend, and may experience a wave of upward movement in the short term.

The main support levels are 650 USD and 642 USD, while the main resistance levels are 660 USD and 670 USD.

In the past few days, Bitcoin has been in a volatile state, and meme coins often detect these changes first.

I have always advised against touching secondary mainstream altcoins; they may seem to rise sharply, but in reality, they are just a rebound after a significant drop.

Ordinary people simply cannot determine where the bottom and top of secondary altcoins are. Once involved, there is a high probability of getting stuck, and if the position is heavy, it could lead to a serious loss.

Next, I still plan to only play with meme coins because secondary mainstream altcoins are not yet at a point where they can be bottom-fished.

You can think of all secondary mainstream coins as a whole, like a large plate. As long as the Federal Reserve does not cut interest rates, there will not be enough funds in the market to drive them up.

From June to September, I will not participate in any short-term opportunities in the market.

Opportunities in altcoins often arise during a continuous trend when Bitcoin is in an upward phase.

I am looking forward to a big bull market like the one in December 2024 that can bring substantial returns.

As the wizard said, I need to research projects more and continue to wait patiently!

In the past few days, Bitcoin has been fluctuating, and the shitcoin was the first to notice this change.

I have always emphasized not to touch secondary mainstream altcoins; they may seem to have risen a lot, but in reality, it's just a rebound after a severe drop.

Ordinary people cannot guess the bottom and top positions of secondary altcoins at all. Once they get in, it is highly likely they will be stuck, and if their position is heavy, they will be firmly trapped.

The next strategy is still to only play with shitcoins; it is not yet time to bottom-fish secondary mainstream altcoins.

All secondary mainstream coins can be viewed as a whole, like a big plate. As long as the Federal Reserve does not cut interest rates, there won't be sufficient funds in the market to drive them up.

In a bull market, the volatility of sharp rises and falls is greater, which seems normal. However, this statement is too subjective; it needs to be objectively measured with data.

So how should volatility be measured? What constitutes high or low volatility?

From a data perspective, the overall average amplitude of Bitcoin during this cycle has decreased significantly, and the maximum drawdown is also much lower. Additionally, the overall leverage ratio is not high at the moment; the high volatility is primarily due to consecutive liquidations.

Moreover, even in a bull market, there is a limit to how much volatility can occur; one cannot claim it is a bull market when all indicators are collapsing.

If the market doesn't improve in the next few days and the short-term trend at the 4-hour level continues to expand, a top could potentially form. However, this does not necessarily mean that a top is being formed.

When this 4-hour level trend expands to the daily or 3-day levels, it can basically be confirmed.

Just like the previous wave, many people regretted missing out, which is a typical case of a 4-hour bearish trend briefly breaking down and then quickly rising;

Moreover, as of now, today's decline is not as significant as that day.

Bitcoin is consolidating, and it seems that some institutions entered the market yesterday to bottom out, resulting in many people unknowingly being led into a "trap" by these institutions.

The statement "slow growth is real growth" is crucial; moving slowly often means moving more steadily, and this principle also applies in a fast-paced trend.

Currently, the Bollinger Bands are continuously trending upward, with bulls showing strong momentum, likely aiming for another upward breakout, pushing towards 106,000.

Bitcoin can be bought at 103,000, targeting 105,000 and 106,000.

Can the subsequent market continue?

The current rebound in the Bitcoin ecosystem, while noteworthy in terms of its rise, is more about expectation recovery in the long run rather than a trend reversal. There are structural issues within its ecosystem that limit sustained performance.

From the development pace, the BRC-20 and Runes projects are advancing slowly, and 'Bitcoin-native DeFi' has not built a complete vertical system, lacking necessary infrastructure, making it difficult to form synergistic effects.

Developer enthusiasm is waning, with low update frequency on core project GitHub repositories, and the activity level in the technical community is far behind chains like Ethereum and Solana. With the shift in attention from capital and users, the developer ecosystem is quiet, weakening mid-term expectations.

Overall, this rebound seems like a 'wrong-call correction,' where funds focus on deeply discounted assets during a style shift after emotional exhaustion and valuation decline, releasing elasticity.

For the Bitcoin ecosystem to break out of an independent market, it cannot rely solely on price increases; it needs real product deployment, convincing user growth data, and the consolidation of community confidence.

After all, while a rebound can be driven by emotions, the continuation of a trend relies on confidence and substantial progress for support.

At present, the overall performance of the three platforms, believe, boop, and bonk, is quite average, with no essential differences among them.

Although launchcoin has seen the highest surge, its difficult-to-play characteristics remain unchanged. The profits made as a leader here can easily be lost in those projects you consider to be 'second-tier, third-tier, fourth-tier...'.

Moreover, the competition among multiple platforms is actually a negative for the Solana chain in the short term, as it disperses liquidity, making it impossible for liquidity to truly concentrate, and naturally, it cannot foster the next on-chain bull market.

Each platform is vying to replace pump. Although pump itself has some issues, so far, no new platform has emerged that can take its place.

Pure memes will not completely disappear, but they will only occasionally present isolated opportunities; the entire sector will not see a heated market like before, as mentioned earlier.

What I hope for more is whether a dedicated on-chain launchpad for 'non-meme' projects can emerge.

The difficulty lies in how to design the mechanism, as a 'strict and rigid' mechanism can easily be abandoned before it even starts running in the early stages.

Perhaps designing it to be relatively flexible in the early stages would be better. Once a few project teams are verified to operate normally, then we can form truly complete rules, which might be more appropriate.

The main theme of this bull market is BTC and MEME.

Secondly, there are opportunities to seize in the secondary market, as well as the rebound of popular altcoins that have dropped significantly. However, this is quite challenging, and the pace is very fast.

Recently, I've often heard that many old investors, relying on the assets accumulated from the previous two bull markets, have suffered heavy losses in this bull market, with many even seeing their assets go to zero and accumulating debt.

This shows that the brutality of the battles in this bull market far exceeds expectations.

We must maintain a mindset of a beginner, continuously learn from excellent individuals, and strive to hold on until the end to successfully reach the shore.

Perfect preparation never arrives; rather than waiting for a foolproof plan, it's better to accumulate experience through action.

In reality, many people keep thinking about waiting for the right conditions, better preparation, or a more suitable time to take action.

However, development opportunities are gained through practice, not by merely waiting.

Don't let imagined obstacles hold you back; instead of constantly worrying, it's better to take action immediately.

No matter what you do, take the first step, and then make adjustments and optimizations along the way. Remember, only by seizing the opportunity can you adjust your state and achieve your goals.

5.15 Morning Analysis of Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Silk Road:

From a technical perspective, the current market is in a state of consolidation, with a standoff between bulls and bears.

On the 4-hour chart, the MACD indicator shows the dual lines below the zero axis, with bears currently in control; however, the distance between the lines is narrowing, indicating a significant weakening of downward momentum, and the market shows signs of a rebound.

The RSI indicator is approaching the overbought zone but has not reached extreme levels, suggesting that bulls have a slight advantage but the market is not overheated yet.

Going forward, it is crucial to monitor whether the RSI can break through key resistance levels to confirm an upward trend.

In summary, the morning advice is to take short positions on rallies to seize potential rebound opportunities.

In terms of operations:
- Bitcoin: Bearish in the range of 103800 - 104500, with a target of 101000.

- Ethereum: Bearish in the range of 2640 - 2660, with a target towards 2550 - 2500.

5.15 Future Trading Opportunities:
- In the past 6 weeks, BTC has shown a good trend with a week of volume increase followed by a week of low-volume small K-line pullback. It is possible to reach a historical high in the next two to three weeks.

- In terms of trading opportunities, if it pulls back to the EMA20 moving average, it would be a good buying point, or wait for a breakout to create a historical high.

XAUUSD Fundamentals:
- The US-China tariff war has landed, with safe-haven funds withdrawing, which is extremely bearish for gold, and currently, there is no fundamental information that is bullish for gold.

Technical Aspect:
- The daily chart shows a double top structure, with 3500 being the medium-term top.

- 3200 is a key level; if it cannot hold above it, the bearish outlook will continue.

- There is potential support in the range of 3120 - 3155, which may trigger a rebound.

The current price is below the 5-minute moving average, and the Bollinger Bands on the 15-minute chart show a downward trend, indicating that the overall market sentiment is neutral.

At the same time, the MACD indicator has formed a bearish cross on the 1-hour chart.

Based on this situation, the recommended trading strategy is: you may choose to short in the price range of 2650 to 2680, with a target price set in the range of 2580 to 2500.

A true wise person, during a clear and pleasant day, can always hold a pure heart, innocent and passionate;

And when faced with storms and difficulties, they will show a courageous demeanor, never backing down. This is the realm of 'formlessness.'

Within 'formlessness' lies countless changes, just like the myriad beings in this world, each person has their own unique appearance and temperament.

When dressed in splendid attire, they can calmly respond to the ever-changing situations in the court, displaying composure and wisdom;

And once they don rough clothing, they can leisurely smile at the life in the marketplace, enjoying the turbid wine that carries the flavor of human life, content and joyful.

This is what a gentleman does; they are not bound by external forms, their hearts are clear and bright, and their character is open and broad-minded.

No matter the situation, they can flexibly respond, just like flowing water, which naturally changes according to the shape of its container, adapting to circumstances and achieving harmony. This is probably the ultimate realm that life can attain.