Azlaan bin Ahsan

#USCorePCEMay

Here’s a detailed breakdown of the May U.S. PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) report—the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge—due today, June 27, 2025, at 8:30 a.m. EDT:

🧾 Key Predictions (May 2025)

Headline PCE (month-over-month): +0.1%; year-over-year: ~2.3%

Core PCE (ex‑food/energy, MoM): +0.1%; YoY: near 2.6%

If realized, these would mark:

A third straight month of modest core inflation.

Headline at or near the Fed's 2% target range.

🔍 What This Means

1. Tariff Watch
Despite concerns that tariff hikes could soon push prices higher, current CPI and PPI data suggest no immediate surge—markets expect May's numbers to reflect that .

2. Rate-Cut Timing

If May’s PCE stays tame, recent signals from Fed officials (Waller, Bowman) could support rate cuts as early as July, though most analysts favor September .

Powell remains cautious, citing possible tariff-driven pressure in upcoming months .

3. Market Reaction

A “soft” print (<= 0.1% MoM) may reinforce the odds of a September cut, while a surprise higher reading could push back expectations and strengthen the dollar .

📊 Latest Data Snapshot

April Core PCE YoY: 2.5% (down from 2.7% in March)

Cleveland Fed nowcasting (as of June 26):

May Core PCE MoM: ~0.14%

YoY: ~2.58%

Here is the bar chart comparing the May 2025 forecast and April actual values for U.S. PCE metrics.

📉 "The Rise and Fall of $SAHARA: A Desert Mirage in the Crypto Markets" 🌪️

Once a whisper on Telegram channels, $SAHARA became a scream—a parabolic rocket igniting the midnight charts, rising from obscurity to a scorching high of $0.18990 in just 24 hours.

Traders flooded in like gold rush prospectors, hypnotized by the green candles stacking like sand dunes under a burning sun. Whales took their fill. Retail chased. Influencers roared. And then—silence.

The price, once blazing hot, began to flicker.

By dawn, $SAHARA had collapsed to $0.08286, like a sandcastle swallowed by a rising tide. Indicators warned the faithful:

📉 Volume? Vanishing like footsteps in the dunes.

🔴 MACD? Turning redder than a desert sunset.

🔄 SAR? Flipped faster than a mirage fades.

🎯 A Tactical Retreat – Not Panic, But Precision

Smart money knew the signs. A short setup emerged, clean as a sniper's scope:

🔻 Entry: $0.08500 – $0.08000

🎯 Targets: $0.06600 → $0.04890 → $0.02050

🛑 Stop Loss: $0.09500

⚠️ Risk? Only 3–5% deployed. This was not the time for heroics.

Volatility ruled the land, and those who dared ride the sandstorm kept their stops tight, their leverage lower, and their hearts colder than a bear’s breath.

Moral of the Market: In the world of crypto, even the hottest token can turn into a ghost town overnight. The desert giveth, and the desert taketh away.

Bitcoin is currently trading between $100K–$110K, showing subdued profit-taking and moderate on-chain activity. A breakout above $110K would require a surge in on-chain transfers and spot trading volume, which hasn’t occurred yet. Meanwhile, institutional interest is growing, with spot ETFs seeing $589M in net inflows, notably $436M into BlackRock's IBIT. Technically, Bitcoin has breached the $107K–$108K resistance, and is now testing its ability to climb toward $110K–$112K.

🎢 #MarketRebound: The Calm After the Storm?
After weeks (or months) of turbulence, the market seems to be finding its footing again — and fast. Rebounds can sneak up like plot twists in a thriller: sudden, sharp, and hard to predict. But savvy investors know they’re driven by more than luck.

💡 What’s Fueling the Comeback?

Mind Over Market: As fear fades, optimism sparks a buying frenzy.

Data Drops: Strong jobs, solid spending, and resilient manufacturing hint at recovery.

Government to the Rescue: Stimulus packages and rate cuts often light the fuse.

Back to Basics: Sometimes markets just realize they panicked too hard.

📈 Latest Pulse Check
The S&P 500 climbs to 6,124.00 (+0.36%), while the Nasdaq 100 hits 22,383.10 (+0.47%) — subtle moves, but possibly the early steps of a bigger march forward.

🔍 Investor Moves That Matter

Spread the risk (*diversification

Here’s a deeper dive into Scott Bessent’s potential as the next Federal Reserve Chair, his policy positions, and what it could mean for markets:

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🔍 Scott Bessent – Fed Chair Contender: In-Depth Look

🧭 Monetary & Economic Views:

📉 Interest Rates:

Bessent has suggested that if economic indicators soften over the next 3–5 months, rate cuts could come by year-end.

His tone is data-dependent, leaning dovish only when growth slows, otherwise favoring stable to tight monetary conditions.

💵 Monetary Policy:

Likely to push for stronger control over monetary expansion, avoiding excessive stimulus or QE (Quantitative Easing).

Emphasis on fiscal discipline and resisting inflationary pressures through tighter policy tools.
₿ Crypto-Friendly Outlook:

Pro-Bitcoin stance sets him apart from traditional Fed candidates.

Could push for regulatory clarity and innovation support in crypto markets, without compromising on macroeconomic stability.
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🌐 Potential Market Impact:

Sector Possible Impact if Bessent is Appointed
Equities Short-term volatility; long-term stability if policies restore confidence
Crypto Positive sentiment; Bitcoin may rally on regulatory clarity and support
Bonds Potential for falling yields if rate cuts are signaled
USD Mixed—depends on pace of rate moves and inflation trajectory

Bitcoin surged past $100K after clearing lower-side liquidity. Currently, the market could be:

1. A Bull Trap – likely scenario, aiming to lure long positions before a potential drop.
2. Recovery from War Impact – less likely, but possible.
The market direction remains uncertain and prone to fake moves designed to trap traders. Until clearer news (positive or negative) emerges:
Use small position sizes.
Consider spot buying gradually.
Stay cautious and avoid falling for traps.
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