烨凯只挣实力钱

*#交易经验 #Trading Story**
The biggest regret is missing this morning's surge of $TON. Although I noticed the news about the Telegram wallet integration, I missed a 15% increase due to excessive waiting for a pullback. **Reflection**: During the acceleration phase of a bull market, strong coins often show 'straight-line increases', so the entry strategy needs to be adjusted to gradually build positions.
#交易故事 #交易经验

### **#新闻交易 #Trading Story**
This morning, the U.S. non-farm payroll data was below expectations, and the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates rose to 65%. I immediately went long on BTC perpetual contracts at $102,100. There was a sharp fluctuation after the data was released, but it ultimately stabilized at $103,000, yielding a profit of 1.8%. **Reminder**: Given the current macro-sensitive period, it is recommended to use conditional orders and reduce leverage to avoid slippage risk.
#新闻交易 #交易故事

#山寨币交易 #Trading Story**
Based on the expectations of RWA collaboration between Polygon and JPMorgan, I positioned $MATIC at $0.75 with a stop loss at $0.72. After the news was released this morning, it peaked at $0.82, but due to the market pullback, it ultimately closed at $0.79 with a 5.3% profit.**Lesson**: After the current market favorable conditions are realized, selling pressure is evident, and altcoins require stricter profit-taking. #山寨币交易 #交易故事

#Strategy Trading #Trading Story**
Using the "Volatility Contraction + Breakout" strategy to trade BNB: Entered at $620 (support from the lower Bollinger Band + exchange reserve data), set a 3% ATR trailing stop. This morning, after the Binance Launchpool announcement, it broke through $650, and finally closed at $668, with a profit of 7.7%.**Current Applicability**: In a sideways market, exchange platform tokens are more resilient due to clear profit models. #交易故事 #策略交昜

This Week's Highlights #TradingStory**
The most successful trade was the chase after $ETH broke $2,300 this morning! At that time, the ETH/BTC exchange rate rebounded to 0.022, and the derivatives funding rate turned positive. I entered the market at the moment of the breakout, and within 2 hours it rose to $2,450, yielding a 6.5% profit.**Strategy**: In a BTC-dominated market, ETH often exhibits the strongest follow-through elasticity; decisive action is needed when breaking through key levels. #本周高光时刻 #交易故事

*#BTC交易 #Trading Story**
On May 8, after multiple tests of BTC at $99,800, combined with CME futures open interest hitting a record high and a daily net inflow of $480 million into ETFs, I entered at $100,200 with 3%. After the breakout, it quickly soared to $103,700, and as planned, I took profits at $102,500, earning 2.3%.**Experience**: When BTC approaches key psychological levels, the movements of institutional funds are more indicative than technical analysis; ETF data should be prioritized. #交易故事 #BTC交易

**#最近的一笔交易 #Trading Story**
Today in the $SOL/USDT trade, I observed Solana breaking through the $170 resistance level, while the ecological TVL increased by 15% to $1.2 billion in one week. I opened a 5% position at $172, setting a dynamic take-profit (30% at $180, 50% at $190). As Bitcoin broke through $100,000, driving market sentiment, SOL quickly surged to $185, ultimately taking profit at $188, yielding a 9.3% profit. **Key Point**: In the current market, mainstream altcoins exhibit strong momentum following BTC's breakout; it is essential to closely monitor the leading cryptocurrencies' linkage effects. #交易故事 #最近的一笔交易

⚠️ The bull market has not ended, but now is not the time to enter

Currently, BTC has been trading sideways for more than a week 📈📉📈📉
I dare to assert that it will definitely drop to around 86,000 within a week

⭕️ Information: **Future Event Risk**:
Currently, the market expects that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates on May 8, which could bring upward momentum, but I believe the probability of this is only 5% (the result will be known soon)

🛑 Technical Analysis: ①**Volume Concerns**:
- Current prices are rising but volume continues to shrink, forming a "volume-price divergence", indicating that the rise lacks funding support, which is a potential negative signal
② **RSI Near Overbought Zone**:
- **RSI(6)=61.9** is close to the overbought threshold (70). If the price continues to rise but the RSI breaks 70, it may trigger a technical correction
③**Weak Long-term Trend Support**:
- **EMA(99)** is only **93,244.6**, far below the current price, indicating that the long-term moving average has failed to provide effective support, and a price drop is only a matter of time

🏁 Recommendation: For contract players, directly place a small short position at 95,500, with the first target at 93,000, take profit at 91,000, and for the medium term, it could drop to 86,000
Spot players can also stay in cash and wait, acquiring lower-priced chips is not a problem 🙋

The big pie (Bitcoin) dropped after breaking through the short-term resistance level yesterday, which confirms my speculation and prediction.
You can see that the big pie is currently facing a severe lack of volume. With the recent drop in interest rate expectations, there isn't much significant news to affect the big pie's trend, except for Trump's remarks.
Therefore, the weekend should primarily see fluctuations. If by the end of Monday the weekly closing doesn't drop below 82,000, then the big pie will likely continue to rebound upwards, and this price may very probably break and stabilize at 85,000, with a high chance of reaching around 88,000.
However, there is still no reversal trend; it remains in a downward trend. From a larger perspective, it is still in a downward trajectory. Since the White House crypto summit, the crypto market has been severely lacking in funds. It’s advisable to keep an eye on the 81,200 position below, while the focus above should be on the area around 88,000.