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#美国加征关税
$BNB

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Based on market data and related analysis as of August 1, 2025, the current trend of Ethereum (ETH) can be analyzed from the following key points:
- The current trading price of ETH is approximately **$3,854** (as of July 29 data), down slightly by 0.82% in the past 24 hours, but up 4.11% for the week.
- The technical indicators show that ETH is testing the key resistance level of **$3,900**; if it breaks through, it may further challenge **$4,100**, or even **$5,000**.
- The 50-day and 200-day moving averages (SMA) are **$2,836** and **$2,404**, respectively, with the current price significantly above the moving averages, indicating an overall bullish trend.

2. **Market Sentiment and Fund Flows**
- **Bullish Signals**:
- Institutional funds continue to flow in, with a net inflow of ETH ETF reaching **$512 million** in July, setting a new annual high.
- The exchange ETH reserves have dropped to the second-lowest level in a year, indicating a tightening market supply, which may drive prices up.
- **Bearish Signals**:
- Over **700,000 ETH** are waiting to be unstaked, which may increase market selling pressure.
- Coinbase ETH premium turned negative, indicating reduced interest from U.S. investors.

### 3. **Technical Indicators and Key Levels**
- **RSI (14-day)** is **80.01**, indicating an overbought condition, with a potential short-term pullback or consolidation.
- **Support Levels**:
- **$3,800** (psychological support)
- **$3,500–$3,300** (key demand zone).
- **Resistance Levels**:
- **$3,900–$4,000** (short-term target)
- **$4,100** (after breakout or accelerated rise).

4. **Analyst Predictions Divergence**
- **Optimistic Prediction**: Some analysts believe ETH could break **$5,000** in August, especially if it breaks through the **$4,100** resistance level.
- **Cautious View**: Overbought RSI, unstaking, and institutional sell-offs (such as the Ethereum Foundation selling **25,833 ETH**) may trigger a short-term pullback.

Today's Trend Outlook
- **If it breaks above $3,900**: It may test **$4,000–$4,100**, or even trigger a short squeeze to accelerate the rise.
- **If it falls below $3,800**: It may retest the **$3,500** support zone, and market sentiment changes should be monitored.

Overall, the trend of ETH today may be influenced by both non-farm data and technical factors, and it is recommended to closely monitor the breakout situation in the **$3,800–$3,900** range and combine on-chain data (like exchange inflows/outflows) to determine the short-term direction.

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⚔️ All-In vs. Split Positions: Which One Keeps You Alive?
⚔️ All-In vs. Split Positions: Which One Keeps You Alive?
Going all-in on leverage? One reversal and you’re done.
All-in on leverage? One reversal and you’re done.

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🚨#Crypto Market Hotspots: Non-Farm Payroll Released, ETH Plummets, Is the Crypto Market Entering 'Autumn' Early?🍂

Last night, as soon as the non-farm data was released, the market experienced sharp fluctuations, with ETH/USDT falling below $3500, dropping over 6% in 24 hours, leading to panic selling.

📊 Brief Analysis of Non-Farm Data:
• Data exceeded expectations ➤ Expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates are suppressed;
• US Treasury yields rebound ➤ Risk assets under pressure;
• US stocks generally stable ➤ However, the crypto market has 'bled' early.

💡 What does this mean for the crypto market?
• 📉 Has the bad news been priced in? Or is a new round of decline beginning?
• 📈 Multiple indicators like KDJ and RSI are extremely oversold, a short-term rebound may be on the horizon;
• 🧠 Smart money has begun to 'suck blood and replenish positions,' on-chain cold wallet inflow data is warming up.

⸻

📌 My Opinion:
Currently, we are at the end of panic selling; in the long term, ETH still has room for growth. In the short term, we need to wait and confirm whether a rebound is valid, control leverage, and dollar-cost average at lows remains the strategic way to go.

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