羡羡的加密日记

Please listen to my sincere words patiently, coin traders!

Whether you hold BTC tightly, love ETH, or are optimistic about BNB, please pause your busy trading and take a few minutes to feel my advice from the bottom of your heart.

When the halo of the coin circle allows you to achieve financial freedom, remember the following nine "don'ts", they may help you avoid many unnecessary twists and turns.

First, don't let people around you peek into the secrets of your coin trading. In this world, those who understand will naturally understand, no need to say more.

Second, don't easily expose your income. Income charts and asset charts are all triggers for jealousy and trouble, so it's better to keep a low profile.

Third, don't show off your rich life in the circle of friends. Except for close relatives, few people really hope that you live better than him. Excessive show-off will only attract unnecessary jealousy.

Fourth, when you have a huge fortune, you should also keep a proper distance from old friends. Many predecessors in the coin circle have chosen to live a low-key life after gaining financial freedom, and even gradually drifted away from their past friends.

Fifth, gambling and drugs, don't touch these two things! Gambling will ruin your psychology, and drugs will ruin your physiology. Once you are infected, the consequences will be disastrous.

Sixth, don't easily call people stupid B, harmony is the most important, and getting angry will only affect your fortune. When you meet those who consume you, just stay away from them, no need to say more.

Seventh, don't take the initiative to do good, and don't pity others easily. Everyone has his own destiny, and being yourself is the greatest contribution to the world.

Eighth, don't invest in areas you don't understand. Remember, people can never make money beyond their own cognition, and blind investment will only make you lose all your money.

Ninth, resolutely don't touch physical entrepreneurship unless you are passionate about it and don't make money as the only purpose. In the current economic environment, physical entrepreneurship is extremely risky, and if you are not careful, you may be unable to recover.

These are advices, but I sincerely hope you can listen to them. Although the currency circle is good, you must also act with caution. I hope you will be more stable and go further and further on the road of currency speculation.

Which are the best altcoins?
Deflation coins:
BNB, FLOKI, SHIB
Fully circulated coins:
PEPE, BOME, PEOPLE, NOT, WIF

VIRTUAL, AIXBT and other cryptocurrencies that dropped a few days ago have now recovered, and VIRTUAL has even reached a new high. Right now, AI concept coins are particularly popular, just like during the metaverse boom in 2021 when coins like sand and mana surged significantly.

Investors from outside want to enter the cryptocurrency market, and AI is the best entry point. Although MEME coins are also being speculated on, the development story of AI is easier to tell, and its future potential is greater. If you're looking to invest, it's best to choose leading coins in the AI sector, pick a few that you believe in, and buy more to seize this opportunity.

MEME coin has started to rise! Bonk, Pepe, BOME, Floki are keeping up with the rhythm. Bitcoin has risen from 80,000 to 95,000 and is now consolidating, it's time for altcoins to perform!
Just focus on the strong leading altcoins!

The key for Bitcoin now is whether it can hold above $93,300:
If it holds, it can continue to rise; if it doesn't, it will drop to the bottom of the range. The red box area between $91,200 and $93,300 is very important; if it consolidates there, it may break upward, but if it drops below $91,200, it will fall.

Ethereum tried to break above last month's support level last night, but was pushed down again, and the short-term trend is very weak.
The market is currently consolidating, so don't place heavy bets easily. Those who are aggressive can try small positions near the support level, while conservative traders should wait for a clear direction before acting.

VCs are no longer able to profit from the secondary market; now they are turning to the primary market, engaging in schemes like "VC + MEME" and "VC + AI," which have led to a lot of rapid speculation.
The dynamics of on-chain play have changed; the SOL ecosystem is no longer driven by narratives, but rather controlled by operators, and the upside potential for pure MEME coins is diminishing.

In 2017, VCs became wealthy through exchanges; now, in the second half of the bull market, the focus may shift to on-chain speculation. Following this logic, while AI concepts are essentially also MEME, they are more popular than pure MEME and have higher speculation heat.

However, caution is advised, as many of these rapidly speculated projects are merely schemes; the technological concepts may just be a facade, and retail investors can easily be taken advantage of.

A statement from the 'understanding king' caused the related cryptocurrency (TRUMP) to surge by 70%. The project team mentioned that the top 25 holders can have dinner with the 'understanding king'. However, looking at the K-line chart, there are a lot of trapped positions above, and after the spike, there is significant selling pressure. Moreover, the 'understanding king' is quite unpredictable; you never know when he might pull a stunt, so definitely don't chase after buying this coin.

To put it simply, this coin relies entirely on the celebrity effect for speculation and has no real value. The top ten addresses hold 68% of the coin, and big holders can easily dump it. Historically, the 'understanding king's' crypto-related news has always been short-lived excitement. The price is currently at a cost zone where previous holders were trapped, making it easy to pick up the bag. It’s better to focus on the fundamentals of mainstream coins.

Today's market sentiment has improved, with Bitcoin rebounding to the $87,000 mark. Some cryptocurrencies are showing a corrective rebound:

DARK: After a deep adjustment from a market value of $40 million to $18 million, it has currently rebounded to $25 million, with significant short-term volatility.
MTN: The trend is highly correlated with DARK, and attention should be paid to subsequent investment plans or project updates.
RFC: The market value has rebounded from $13 million to $26 million and then to $31 million; if Musk does not respond to the related narrative, it may take longer to recover.
WIZARD: Market value is further compressed during the correction, with relatively active market sentiment.
GCATS: The project narrative remains controversial, and potential risks should be heeded.
SKYAI: Participants in the pre-sale stage are generally profitable, but there is limited buying power after the opening, leading to short-term pressure.

Currently, the BTC price is hovering around 93800, and a lower shadow appeared on the four-hour chart, which resembles a 'signal' from the market—the small support level corresponding to ema50 has taken effect. For intraday trading, it is crucial to pay attention to the 87500 - 88000 area above, which may be a resistance challenge; below, the focus is on the area around 82400, concerning the support bottom line.

Interestingly, from the liquidation heatmap, it is evident that there is already a lack of liquidity below, and there seems to be an 'invisible force' in the market likely to 'move' liquidity upwards, with the range roughly locked in the 86750 - 87590 interval. Understanding these key levels and liquidity trends is essential for seizing intraday volatility opportunities for BTC.

Current market conditions are dominated by the battle between bulls and bears influenced by news. Finding the right moment to go long or short at an ideal price is the best strategy. Frequently entering and exiting during price fluctuations can easily lead to being 'washed out' by the market, resulting in unnecessary losses. After all, hard-earned money is not easy to come by; instead of blindly following the trend and giving money to the market during volatility, it's better to cash out at the right time for peace of mind.

Last night did not see the emergence of Black Monday. In the early hours, Trump revealed that he might adjust tariffs on imported cars and auto parts, which greatly boosted market sentiment, leading to a rise in the S&P during morning trading.

BTC is still fluctuating around $85,000. Even if Trump continues to release favorable news about tariff easing, the upward price movement may be limited, as there is significant resistance at $86,600 and $87,700, and it has already risen over $10,000 since $75,000. Currently, the decision on interest rate cuts is still pending, and market sentiment is more influenced by economic data at the end of the month.

Looking at ETH, with BTC not breaking through, ETH is also facing resistance in the $1,650 - $1,700 range. The Grayscale ETH spot ETF staking application has been postponed to June, and BlackRock has not yet applied. Although the progress of the process is favorable for ETH, is it realistic to expect a direct doubling to $1,600 once the news is released?

The current secondary counterfeit market is like the starting point of an exciting treasure hunt, and it's crucial to grasp these key points:
First, focus on the transformation of old projects, like an old tree sprouting new buds, which may hide big surprises;
Second, aim for new projects that are in popular tracks and have not been 'counterfeited', with unlimited potential;
Third, enter by choosing low market cap newly listed ones, as there is ample growth space;
Fourth, for projects that are already listed, on one hand, pay attention to token trends, reference the rhythm of popular projects' surges and dips, and look for patterns on a 'monthly' or 'yearly' basis; on the other hand, check if the project team is continuously 'stirring things up';
Finally, for emerging projects, the 'story' must be well told and have financial backing; without a narrative, it lacks momentum, and if the funding is weak, it may create noise without impact. By grasping these points, you can dig up treasures.

The current cryptocurrency market is a bit chaotic. High market cap altcoins are not rising, and low market cap ones, just when they show some signs of life, cool down quickly. Occasionally, there are some coins that I've never heard of popping up and fluctuating in the rankings.

So it’s better to stick with mainstream coins like BTC, ETH, and SOL. Their trends are relatively easy to understand, and at least it feels more reassuring.

Why is the cryptocurrency market not doing well right now? Ultimately, it comes down to a lack of money and poor liquidity. Although Bitcoin has an ETF now, and it seems to have some backing, along with big companies like MSTR continuously buying, the cryptocurrency market is still the most dangerous corner of the high-risk market.

Don't get confused and think this year is like the bull market of 2021; it's not the same at all. When will we return to the good times of 2021 when everyone was making money? We need to look at how the economy in the U.S. is doing, whether inflation is high, and how the employment situation is. These issues are currently mixed up with tariff problems.

If the U.S. economy is particularly strong and resilient, maybe next year will be like 2021, with a booming market. However, let me be clear: this is not an encouragement for you to invest. The market changes faster than a face can change, and if you want to throw money in, you have to be very careful.

Recently, the cryptocurrency market has been turbulent, with tokens like OM and DEXE, seen as being heavily manipulated, also 'crashing' in the continuously declining market. From a peak price, they have plummeted nearly 90%, mirroring the dire situation of coins like WLD, BETA, TRUMP, and WIF.

Just think about it, how shrewd the project teams must be; if given a choice, they would surely choose to crash in a bull market, where profits from selling would far exceed those of the present. Retail investors, however, suffer greatly, losing 70% or even more of their real money. Therefore, when dealing with altcoins now, I set stop-loss prices, fearing being 'thrown off' by the market.

However, there are also highlights in the market. Recently, in the secondary market, the performance of SOL unexpectedly outpaced ETH, with new additions to the SOL ecosystem like orca and layer performing well, followed by the new coin PROMPT on OKEx. Although good coins are currently scarce, the emergence of a leading RFC with a market cap of over a hundred million in the primary market can liven things up for a few days. The current strategy is to follow the heat, avoid prolonged battles, maintain a good position, and hope for the market to warm up and for dawn to return.

Last night, Trump softened his stance on the increased tariffs on East Asia, and the 'dark cloud of bad news' hanging over the market has temporarily dissipated in the short term. However, do not let your guard down; there are still GDP and PCE data coming at the end of the month. Previously, the market expected a rebound, but the index couldn't even surpass the 85 mark and can only continue to fluctuate. Starting next month, inflation and employment data will become the focus, and it’s important to note that the inflation data includes tax information. Currently, various macroeconomic data seem to signal a 'slowdown' in the economy. If Powell hastily puts interest rate cuts on the agenda at this time, the market will not view it as a positive signal; instead, it will interpret it as the Federal Reserve being afraid of an economic recession and rushing to 'rescue' the situation. This is entirely different from the logic of last September's rate cuts. For risk markets like U.S. stocks and Bitcoin, it’s not only difficult to see any positive news, but it may even bring shocks. Investors must keep a close eye on data trends.

CPI is favorable, but the market goes against the trend, falling instead of rising. What is going on?

1. The night before, U.S. stocks surged as if they were on steroids, and there must be a process of digestion and adjustment afterward. Just like people, the market has just gone through a 'vigorous exercise'; it needs to take a breather before it has the energy to start the next 'sprint'. Bitcoin is no different; it previously surged by 7,000 points, so a pullback and adjustment are entirely inevitable.

2. By early yesterday morning, the trend was already set, indicating not only the highest point of the week but also precisely calculating the upcoming pullback wave points. With both direction and points clarified, what does it matter if last night's CPI data was impressive? There is fundamentally no reason to support a continued rise in the market; a downturn and adjustment are in line with the overall trend.