链上老船长

【Bitcoin stands at a crossroads, the bull and bear are only a K-line apart】

Currently, Bitcoin is hovering around $100,000, seemingly calm, but in reality, there are undercurrents.

1️⃣ Macroeconomic pressure has not eased: The U.S. CPI remains high, and expectations for a second rate hike are rising; if U.S. Treasury yields continue to climb, risk assets will face systemic valuation corrections.

2️⃣ On-chain funds are cautious: Data shows that in the past 5 days, the number of active Bitcoin addresses and transaction counts have both declined, indicating a growing wait-and-see sentiment in the market, while futures positions continue to accumulate, signaling that high-leverage speculation is nearing a breaking point.

3️⃣ Technical structure is at a critical point: The daily chart has tested the $100,000 support level three times in a row; if it breaks down further, it could trigger a chain liquidation effect, with support looking down to $92,000; conversely, if it breaks through $105,000 with volume, it may challenge the previous high of $112,000.

🔍 The most crucial variable is institutional behavior. Currently, addresses of exchanges like Bitfinex and Coinbase are continuously receiving net inflows of stablecoins, indicating that large funds may be accumulating positions at lower prices. However, this does not mean there is no risk in the short term; on the contrary—volatility is a trap, and speculation is harvesting.

📌 In summary: The bull market trend is not dead, but this is not the time for mindless all-in; instead, it is the moment to formulate tactical plans and strike accurately.
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In this market, those who can truly survive long-term are not the ones who 'guess the direction' correctly, but those who understand 'how not to die'.

You may think trading relies on intuition, but it actually relies on discipline.

When the market moves, you rush in; if the wind direction is wrong and you don't cut losses, relying on luck to get through once or twice—on the third time, the market will personally teach you what a margin call looks like.

Currently, the fluctuations of major and minor currencies are frequent, and with a slight disagreement, there can be cascading sell-offs. Those who trade by instinct have gradually disappeared from the market.

⚠️ Remember: A plan is your armor to stand firm amidst volatility; cutting losses is your bottom line to survive in chaos.

Without defenses, don't blame the storm when there’s nowhere to hide.

The market is not short of opportunities, but only those who can avoid pitfalls are qualified to wait for the right moment.
#Metaplanet增持比特币 #以色列伊朗冲突 #加密市场反弹 #MichaelSaylor暗示增持BTC #特朗普比特币金库 $BTC $ETH $XRP

Does Bitcoin want to substantially break below 100,000? Unless the situation in the Middle East escalates to an extreme state again, it’s not there yet.

At present, global risk assets are stabilizing overall, and Bitcoin has quickly recovered from last week's sharp decline. Short-term sentiment has shifted from 'panic' to 'cautious observation'.

This indicates that this wave of decline is more about emotional release rather than issues with on-chain fundamentals or capital structure.

However—danger has not been eliminated!

⚠️ If external situations fluctuate and market risk aversion rises again, the cryptocurrency market may face a new round of rapid volatility.

⚠️ The current Bitcoin price at the 100,000 dollar mark remains a core position for the bulls and bears. If it breaks down, it could trigger a large-scale stop-loss and liquidation chain reaction.

Conclusion: A volatile period is not a time for desperate measures; don’t rebound too aggressively, and don’t be too lax in defense.

✅ Plans, risk control, and timing are key words for the upcoming period.

📌 Understanding the risks is a prerequisite for participating in harvesting.

#Metaplanet增持比特币 #以色列伊朗冲突 #加密市场反弹 #MichaelSaylor暗示增持BTC #特朗普比特币金库 $BTC $ETH $XRP

Don't say you lack vision; what truly drags you down is the fluctuation of your mindset.

You fixate on others multiplying their investments and becoming rich, only to impulsively buy at high points and sell at low points, forever living as a scapegoat.

The rise and fall of the market is not the biggest risk; restlessness is.

In the current market where Bitcoin is consolidating and altcoins are sluggish, those who truly make money are not those who envy others' short-term gains, but those who can endure loneliness and withstand their emotions.

To put it simply, this market is not about who runs fastest; it’s about who can last the longest.

📌 Take advantage of the calm to cultivate your understanding; don’t wait until the surge arrives to panic and lose your way.

📌 Patience is the rarest weapon in this cycle.
#Metaplanet增持比特币 #以色列伊朗冲突 #加密市场反弹 #MichaelSaylor暗示增持BTC #btc $BTC $ETH $XRP

The 'tightening spell' of the second cake is quietly loosening.

Recently, Joseph Lubin, co-founder of Ethereum and head of Consensys, publicly stated that the regulatory environment for the second cake in the beautiful country is undergoing a 'qualitative change.' Although this statement may seem mild, it hides tremendous variable signals.

You should know that regulation is not just idle talk but a true 'anchor' that determines the life and death of the market. For a long time, the question of whether the second cake constitutes a security has been like a hidden bomb over the entire ecosystem, causing large funds to hesitate, developers to have concerns, and limiting ecological expansion.

Now, this ceiling seems to have developed a crack. Regulation is no longer a one-size-fits-all approach; instead, it is beginning to differentiate, loosen, and even shift towards inclusivity. What does this mean? It means that more wallets from hedge funds, Wall Street giants, and even sovereign institutions might quietly open up for the second cake.

⚠️ Currently, although the second cake is in a low-level fluctuation, from the perspective of value discovery logic, once the regulatory boot falls and emotions are realized, the market's valuation system for the second cake will be completely restructured!

Remember this: turning points never wait for your confirmation; they only reward those who lay out in advance.
#Metaplanet增持比特币 #以色列伊朗冲突 #加密市场反弹 #ETH $BTC $ETH $BNB

Does the rebound resemble a 'flash in the pan'?

Last Friday, Bitcoin briefly fell to $102,600, while Ethereum dropped to $2,436. Although there was a technical rebound afterwards, the overall rhythm still belonged to a state of oscillation and repair. The weekend performance was even more pronounced—weak consolidation, with an uncertain direction.

At present, the market's focus is summed up in one question: $100,000, is it support or a break?

From the market structure perspective, although Bitcoin temporarily stopped falling, the rebound height was clearly insufficient, and the bullish attack was weak. The key resistance zone was not effectively broken, reflecting the market's extreme hesitation regarding the current situation.

On the external front, the political and economic situation in the United States is turbulent, with safe-haven assets frequently fluctuating, while the crypto market is entering a 'psychological game pressure cooker' stage—any slight disturbance could trigger a new wave of emotional sell-offs.

📉 If Bitcoin falls below $100,000 again, it could trigger a wave of liquidation-level selling; however, if it stabilizes, the previous high of $112K will once again become a target to look forward to.

Remember: this is not the stage for chasing highs or selling lows, but rather a critical point to hold steady with the script and wait for signals.

Another super whale accurately reaps profits, becoming rich from "wasteland" in five days!

A veteran wallet that has been lurking for over a year played with 20 million $AURA, which had been dormant for a long time, to reach sky-high prices in just 5 days.

📈 Five days ago, this batch of chips was only worth $20,000, but in just a few days, it skyrocketed to $4.4 million, an increase of 220 times!

🐳 The whale decisively sold half, exchanging for 12,605 SOL, successfully pocketing a profit of over $3.4 million, while wallet address FbcvpL still steadily holds the remaining 10 million, worth about $1.8 million.

This is not luck; it is the ultimate manifestation of cold-bloodedness and patience in compound interest.

⚠️ Don't be blinded by the allure of sudden wealth; behind this round of short-term frenzy is the extremely fragile liquidity of FOMO dynamics. Whoever rushes too aggressively will be harvested by "smart money." Current market sentiment has entered a critical overheating stage, and the intensity of capital games is clearly increasing.

Mainstream volatility, altcoin surges, this structure is very familiar—what you think is an opportunity may actually be the "last baton" of a high-position trap.

Remember: Super gains come from extreme uncertainty; something that can increase by 200 times can also be instantly halved by 90%.

Tracking whale wallets and understanding the paths of smart money is your most effective weapon to navigate through the fog.
#Metaplanet增持比特币 #以色列伊朗冲突 #特朗普比特币金库 #美国加征关税 $BTC $ETH $XRP

Don't blame the outrageous market prices; most of the time, they honestly reflect the current state of supply and demand—it's just that you haven't recognized which cycle you are in.

In the last bull market, projects flooded the market, and a frenzy of financing swept through, with the entire network in a windfall. But user growth did not keep pace; demand lagged, and supply was severely excessive, marking the beginning of a bubble accumulation.

Now, the bubble is being liquidated:

📉 A mess of copycats, teams running away, and broken funding chains;

🪦 Projects are dying like mushrooms after rain, with the supply side being 'naturally selected';

🔄 Once the supply and demand relationship is restructured, prices will rebound like a spring back to their original position, or even rise beyond expectations.

Cycles are never driven by emotions; they are rooted in the industry structure.

From Bitcoin to altcoins, from certain projects to others, every rise and fall we see is a deep resource redistribution behind the scenes.

Don't be fooled by the current slump; it is actually a critical window for chip restructuring and capital turnover. Those who can endure the silence will be the ones worthy of taking off.

You are not waiting for the market; you are waiting for the rebirth of supply and demand.
#以色列伊朗冲突 #特朗普比特币金库 #BTC #ETH $BTC $ETH $XRP

In this smoke-free jungle of the cryptocurrency world, what matters is not luck, but understanding, mindset, and execution.

I have seen too many people enter at a high point with the fantasy of 'Bitcoin soaring to the sky', only to turn around and find a mess. I've also seen people heavily invest in a project right when it starts, only to lose everything days later. The reason is simple: it's not about poor technology, but about human nature being unable to withstand the torment of temptation and fear.

✔ The first thing: Maintain a stable mindset.

Don't let the illusion of 'getting rich several times over' cloud your judgment. Emotional trading is the root of losses; Bitcoin and altcoins are always fluctuating, but not every rebound is worth chasing, and not every dip signifies the end of the world.

✔ The second thing: Build a moat of understanding.

The core of the market is competition; no one will tell you which project is a real dragon and which is just air. You need to fully understand project structures, token economics, team backgrounds, data support... Don’t rely on 'recommendations from friends' as your faith; that’s not investing, it’s gambling.

✔ The third thing: Capital management is your trump card for survival.

Don't go all in, and don’t heavily bet on a single direction. The volatility in the crypto world far exceeds that of traditional assets; without risk control, a total loss overnight is not just a scare tactic. Diversifying your portfolio, setting profit-taking and stop-loss orders, and adjusting your positions reasonably are basic skills for professional players. #美国加征关税 #卡尔达诺稳定币提案 #以色列伊朗冲突 #BTC #ETH $BTC $ETH $XRP

In the coming days, the market may undergo a deep reshuffle.

Several signals are quite clear:

1⃣ The escalation of the Middle East situation is behind the meticulously planned inflation drivers by the beautiful nation, with crude oil and precious metal prices likely to continue rising;

2⃣ A large number of national bonds are set to expire in June, with no countermeasures in place, and liquidity risks are accumulating;

3⃣ Internal turmoil in the beautiful nation is intensifying, and under the dual pressure of geopolitics and domestic politics, safe-haven assets are favored while risk assets are neglected;

4⃣ If the big pie (Bitcoin) were really strong, it would have broken 110,000 by now, but it is still hovering below 100,000, which carries a significant implication—who is the main force waiting to cut whom?

Don't fantasize about capitalists coming to light the way for you; what they are watching is your still unbroken position.

The real market often only starts after the blood flows like a river.
#特朗普比特币金库 #美国加征关税 #卡尔达诺稳定币提案 #以色列伊朗冲突 #btc $BTC $XRP $ETH

The big pie is still hovering in the greed zone. Although the sentiment is disturbed by the Middle East, the bulls' determination has not collapsed.

Currently, 100,000 dollars is not only a critical point but also a psychological threshold for bulls and bears. If it stands above, it is expected to challenge the 112K high ground; if it falls below, on-chain liquidations may erupt like a tide.

This is a critical stage of high-leverage speculation; the rise and fall are not important, execution is the key to victory or defeat.

In a volatile market, hesitation is the most feared; true experts have long set their scripts.
#特朗普比特币金库 #卡尔达诺稳定币提案 #BTC #BTC走势分析 $BTC $ETH $XRP

Trading is not about technology; it's about human nature.

Behind the market, there is always a hedging of emotions between bulls and bears. What you focus on are the candlesticks, but what the market is competing for is the human heart.

You can watch the market every day, but understanding yourself is key.

Technology is a tool; **emotion is the lifeblood.** Going long or short is not difficult; the challenge lies in whether you can control your hands and suppress your heart.

True experts do not trade every day, but rather take action at critical moments—like snipers, not hunters.

#特朗普比特币金库 #CPI数据来袭 #btc #BTC $BTC $ETH $XRP

Bitcoin is experiencing a critical point of "financial role reshaping."

Recently, Bitcoin has shown a significant decoupling from the yields of US Treasury bonds, rendering traditional safe-haven logic ineffective. In the past, high yields meant capital flowing back to US Treasuries, putting pressure on Bitcoin; however, now, Bitcoin is going against the tide, with its trend becoming more independent.

This is not a coincidence but a structural turning point: Bitcoin is evolving from a "speculative asset" to a "strategic asset." Institutional holdings are stable, ETFs continue to attract capital, and the turning point in monetary policy remains uncertain... This cycle is fundamentally different from previous ones.

Remember: real financial changes always start with decoupling, followed by re-pricing.

#btc #BTC #卡尔达诺稳定币提案 #CPI数据来袭 $BTC $ETH $XRP

Some are shouting that Bitcoin will replay the collapse script of 2022, plummeting by 75%.

Sounds scary, but is it really that easy?

Don't forget, this round is different from the past: spot ETFs have launched, institutions are deeply bound, and the halving has just occurred. An analyst from Swyftx also stated the truth—"It's not impossible, but it really doesn't seem like it right now."

My viewpoint is clear: a severe correction may happen, but a bloodbath replica? Difficult!

If there is a collapse, it will be due to a double whammy of policy + liquidity, rather than just what the technical charts say.

Remember this: the cycle change of Bitcoin is no longer a retail vote, but a restructuring of capital.

To see the trend clearly, don't focus on emotions, but on the underlying forces. #BTC #ETH $BTC $ETH $ETH

Short-term trading? That's for those who play with emotions.

I have long since escaped the cycle of retail investors, and now I only do two things:

① The main trend of Bitcoin remains steady, follow the master, clearly distinguish between the big and small players.

② At the project level, we have our own systematic approach, not reaching out to the outside, not joining the hype, but laying out independently.

To put it bluntly, risk control, rhythm, and background are all different now.

If you are still staring at software to catch waves, then sorry, we are not on the same level.

Opportunities are not about shouting, but about vision.

#卡尔达诺稳定币提案 #BTC走势分析
#BTC $BTC

📉 Alpha's popularity has plummeted!

On June 14, the total transaction volume was only $987 million, halving from the peak of June 8 and shrinking by 51%. It has decreased for six consecutive days, and market sentiment has clearly cooled.

ZKJ still dominates the transaction volume ($703 million), with KOGE following closely behind. However, in terms of popularity, short-term speculation shows signs of fatigue, and the follow-up capital is evidently lacking.

Trading volume is the most honest indicator, and the tide-reversing signal has emerged.

Speculation has cooled, and funds are shifting to a wait-and-see approach; Alpha's frenzy may have entered its final phase.

Don't impulsively jump in after the peak; before the next wave of the market starts, pay attention to the rhythm and stay vigilant.
#币安HODLer空投HOME #币安Alpha上新 #币安Alpha理财中心 #币安HODLer空投RESOLV $BTC $ETH $ETH

UNI600 points firmly secured!
The market can be noisy, but the mindset must remain calm. Every action taken is based on the results of analysis, not on emotional impulse.

#UNI #CPI数据来袭 #UNIUSDT #加密圆桌讨论 #以色列伊朗冲突 $UNI $BTC $ETH

Many people ask: Will the altcoin season come again? I just want to say - it hasn't disappeared, but has been locked up by liquidity.

The outbreak of altcoins relies not on faith, but on the abundance of water that stirs the waves. Currently, the halving of Bitcoin is facing the tightening cycle of the United States for the first time, and the crypto market is being choked by the "central bank" for the first time.

With tight liquidity, risk appetite naturally declines, and no one is willing to chase altcoins. But once easing arrives, the flow of funds will change instantly: from defensive assets to high-elasticity targets - altcoins are one of them.

Don't doubt the altcoin season, it is just postponed, not canceled.

Just don't go all in to bet on "now", but save your bullets for when the wind arrives.

Altcoin season won't knock on the door by itself; it will only explode suddenly at the moment when the flood engulfs the golden mountain.

Cold wallets aren't cold; hackers are very hot.

Last night, a friend tried "financial management on the blockchain" but ended up with a "poisonous mushroom" wallet—brand new on the outside, but actually had a backdoor. 50 million dollars evaporated in an instant, and the hacker withdrew the funds overnight, taking away trust as well.

Don't be greedy for a few hundred bucks on "Douyin substitutes"; you think it's a safe, but in reality, it's a naked account. Remember: only you should know the wallet's private key; any "pre-set" cold wallet is essentially a public withdrawal code.
Don't let your digital assets fall into the hands of your own cheapness.
#CPI数据来袭 #BTC #ETH #美国加征关税 #币安Alpha上新 $BTC $ETH $XRP

Making money depends on the market trends; whether you can double your investment depends on how well you can withstand the noise.

The more chaotic the market, the more explosive the emotions, which is precisely when experts quietly build their positions. Not every K-line needs a response, and not every fluctuation deserves a reaction.

True profits belong to those who can stay calm and steady amidst the noise, immovable like a mountain.

Remember: it's not the market that tests you; it's whether you can navigate through the panic and reach the finish line. #CPI数据来袭 #BTC