BTC_hj

The latest article by Arthur Hayes, the founder of BitMEX, is titled "Water, Water, Every Where", which can be translated as "Liquidity, liquidity, needed everywhere". The article emphasizes the importance of liquidity and analyzes the impact of various policy tools of the Federal Reserve and the U.S. Treasury on market liquidity.

This round clearly feels that liquidity determines everything. Previously, BTC could rely on the benefits of ETFs and capital inflows to break through the previous round of highs, but to maintain the upward trend, it must rely on market liquidity support. The Federal Reserve and the U.S. Treasury are the two giants that affect the liquidity of the U.S. economy. The Federal Reserve relies on adjusting policy interest rates, expanding/shrinking balance sheets, and overnight reverse repurchases; the Treasury relies on issuing long/short-term treasury bonds. The cryptocurrency market is at the end of liquidity in the U.S. financial market, so the depletion or reduction of market liquidity will be reflected in the cryptocurrency market first.

If you understand this, you will understand why BTC has not been able to break through new highs since March because of the lack of market liquidity, and the only funds have flowed to U.S. stocks and U.S. long-term treasury bonds. At the same time, you will understand the importance of interest rate cuts to the second half of the bull market in the cryptocurrency market, and now the interest rate cut cycle is about to start. , it is expected that the Fed will maintain the interest rate to the neutral rate through multiple interest rate cuts. Only multiple interest rate cuts can release water to the cryptocurrency circle, not one or two interest rate cuts.

At the same time, it should be noted that the Fed will not lower the interest rate to the same low as in 2020 in this round of interest rate cuts. In 2020, it is actually QE, which is a stronger stimulus than gradual interest rate cuts. Therefore, there will not be as much capital flowing into the cryptocurrency circle as in the last bull market. In addition, there are too many currencies now, and there will not be a market where all the currencies rise in the second half of the bull market, so it is very important to select currencies. Strong currencies will absorb a lot of market liquidity and explode, while weak currencies may be able to recover their capital with the current decline. This round of bull market must be strong and strong, and you must hold strong currencies to make money.

The above analysis is based on the judgment of liquidity on the general trend of the second half of the bull market. Any investment to make money from the trend is simple and has the highest winning rate. This is the way and the fundamental. The investment risk in the cryptocurrency circle is high, and it is more important to follow the general trend. What we need to do now is to select the strong currencies in the market, increase positions when the market is low, and get the profit in the second half of the bull market next year.#BTC走势预测 #美联储降息周期 #趋势投资 $BTC

The more chaotic the market, the more you need to stay calm. Here are some personal thoughts on the market conditions during this period:

1. Has the bull market ended?
The most important reason for the rise since November 6 is the favorable policy expectations for cryptocurrencies brought by Trump's victory. The continuation of the upward trend next year mainly depends on the more favorable policies towards cryptocurrencies after Trump takes office, including a more relaxed regulatory framework, BTC strategic reserves, and so on. This main storyline has not changed, so the bull market is likely to continue. However, it is also important to note the degree to which favorable expectations for cryptocurrencies are fulfilled after Trump takes office, as this could lead to the end of the bull market.

2. Why has BTC fallen in the past couple of days?
The direct reason is that the Federal Reserve's statement last night was more hawkish than the market expected. However, at this level, the market had already anticipated a reduction in interest rate cuts by 2025, and this time the dot plot prediction was only one time less than the market expectation. Logically, this should not lead to such a severe pullback. If it has happened, it can only be said that the market's excessive panic combined with the liquidation of positions by some large holders has caused a chain reaction. However, past experiences have shown that panic-induced declines tend to recover.

3. What’s happening with altcoins? Will there be an altcoin season later?
Altcoins have been the hardest hit in recent days. When Bitcoin rose a couple of days ago, altcoins did not rise and even fell. However, looking back at the rise in early November, Bitcoin initially rose alone, draining the market, and the market was in despair. But once Bitcoin broke through key levels, capital overflowed, and altcoins began to perform. Therefore, as long as Bitcoin can maintain its upward trend, there will definitely be an altcoin season. Profit-taking capital will always overflow; this is human nature and the essence of any financial market. Even in strong markets like the U.S. stock market, we see that when the Nasdaq rises significantly, the Russell 2000 small-cap stocks also rise.

4. When will the altcoin season come?
When Bitcoin breaks through key price levels, rests, and consolidates, altcoins will explode. As it stands, it is highly likely that this is a key point. Previously it was 100,000, and subsequently it should be 110,000, 120,000, 130,000, etc. If it is expected that this bull market will peak at 150,000, then altcoins will have four more explosive opportunities, but the risks will increase as we move further into the later stages. Altcoins should still focus on strong sector leaders; based on previous gains, meme coins, public chains, DeFi, RWA, etc., are relatively strong sectors.

The above is just personal reflection, DYOR
#市场调整後的机会？

The overall trend is still there, and those who operate chaotically out of panic are destined to be cannon fodder in the market. The greater the market divergence, the greater the opportunity. No investment will develop as expected, especially in the cryptocurrency space. If you can't bear this, you should consider staying away from any investments and focus on doing your job well, honestly working as an employee. #加密市场回调

Others fear my greed. The recent decline from deleveraging has caused many people to be washed out. Coupled with some KOLs spreading statements that this round has already peaked, panic has further intensified. Personally, I judge that this bull market has not ended at all; at most, it is just the rhythm before the climax. Therefore, I decisively increased my holdings in Pepe and also started building a position in Uni. This round of the bull market has already shown two main lines: meme + US election bull, policy bull. The sectors that benefit the most from the US election bull and policy bull are compliant public chains and DeFi sectors. Just pick the leading investments in these two sectors. Investing is always about your own judgment; be responsible for your own funds. Others' analyses can only serve as references, remember that!
#加密市场反弹
$PEPE
$UNI
$DOGE

Because I believe, I hold. I firmly believe in the power of the masses. The basis for the rise of the currency circle is consensus.
#PEPE市值新高
$PEPE

Pepe reaches a new high, congratulations to the friends still on the bus. There are many glorious moments for Pepe in the future 🚀🚀🚀. To make money in a bull market, you just need to understand, invest heavily, and hold steady.
#PEPE创新创历史新高
$PEPE

Bull Market Money-Making Secrets: Think More, Act Less
Bull Market Money-Losing Secrets: Think Less, Act More
In a bull market, cherish every opportunity to act, because every action comes with a huge opportunity cost. Once you get caught, the losses can be greater than in a bear market. Before you FOMO into action, ask yourself why; otherwise, you are likely to become someone else's liquidity. Remember to make money within your understanding, and don't always try to seize every opportunity in the market.
#pepe⚡
$PEPE

Last month, after the big pancake started to surge, the first funds flowed into memes. Today, it has surged again, with the meme sector showing obvious movements, and doge and pepe are particularly rising strongly. Just yesterday, it was said that memes have been adjusting for over 20 days, with the longest adjustment taking a month, and today it has started. Congratulations to friends who are still on board, and those who haven't boarded yet should hurry up.
#doge⚡ #pepe⚡

Congratulations BTC has surpassed 100,000 USD, the legendary journey continues! Let's move on to the next leg of the journey, aiming for the next goal!
#BTC新高10W #历史见证者打卡 #

The sector is rotating, and everyone is very fomo. It has been 20 days since the meme sector rotated, and it is uncertain when the funds will flow back (maybe it will take another 10 days, and the rotation will take 1 month?) But I still firmly hold pepe, and hope that you will still be on the train when it rises next time
#pepe⚡

The rotation of sectors in a bull market brings various wealth codes. What we need to do is make money in the areas we are best at. If you excel at capturing hot trends, keep a close watch on the market; if you specialize in a certain track of investment, stay committed. Stick to your own judgment, adhere to your investment strategy, and do not waste this great market opportunity
#pepe⚡

The explanation of xpr's pull-up shows that in a bull market, the size of the market capitalization is not important, so blindly ambushing low market cap coins may not be a good strategy. In this round, the stronger coins with high market capitalization have pulled up even more fiercely, just like how the increases of doge and pepe far exceed those of other low market cap meme coins.

buy and hold pepe
1. Huge community
2. Top daily trading volume
3. The highest valuation meme this round
4. Pure meme culture
5. Fully circulated chips
6. Listed on both Robinhood and Coinbase, able to absorb all US FOMO sentiment
7. Continuous ATH
8. Considerable return on investment
9. Participation of top market makers
10. Many crypto bigwigs are optimistic and firmly hold
#pepe⚡

Yesterday, CZ posted a tweet about the fud meme, which caused strong dissatisfaction in the community. Subsequently, CZ also tweeted again to clarify. The meme is the biggest narrative of this round and is the market's choice; this trend is irreversible. In the past two days, ETH has been rallying; don’t let short-term fluctuations disturb your mindset. Just switch your perspective to the monthly chart, and it will be clear.
In this round of increase, led by pepe and doge, the leading memes were the first to rally, followed by the rotation of funding sectors. In comparison to the bull market of 2021, where defi, led by uni, was the first to rally, took a break in the middle, and then rallied again. Overall, the narrative sector with the largest increase is the highest, so just hold steady.
Meme holders wait for the wind to come again
#pepe⚡
$PEPE

Today, the new neiro, act, and pnut that were launched before BN all started to rebound strongly. I have said many times that this round of funds will always pay attention to the meme sector. Pepe has basically been trading sideways in the past few days. The whales have already started to act in advance. There is not much time left for retail investors to get on board. Once the car starts, it is difficult to stop.
#pepe⚡

Regardless of the ups and downs, I firmly believe that the main track of this bull market is meme. The current pullback is just a washout, and the rise afterwards will be as fierce as the recent rise of old coins
#pepe⚡ #doge⚡

Today there is a general rise in the market, especially the older coins which have been continuously rising for a week, and there are very few retail investors involved, so the rise is fast. At this time, many people feel anxious, especially when they see that the coins they hold are not rising as much as others. In a bull market, remember not to panic; everything will rise. As long as we focus on the main tracks, we can catch the most delicious fish. The last bull market was a defi bull market, and this time there is no new value coin narrative in the crypto world, which is also the reason for the recent surge of old coins. As Bitcoin continues to rise and break through boundaries, more newcomers will enter the market. What will newcomers buy first? Definitely meme coins, especially those with good consensus and breaking through boundaries. So just hold onto the leading meme coins you have, and don’t be affected by short-term market trends; stick to your investment logic.
#meme板块关注热点 #pepe⚡ #doge⚡
$PEPE
$DOGE

Buy pepe boldly, and you can at least erase one more zero by the end of the bull market. The bull market is coming, don't look at the market value, just pull the market, the strong will always be strong in this round. Those who understand will understand, this information is only for those who are destined to be with you
#pepe⚡ #pepe能不能拿
$PEPE

Yesterday's judgment was once again confirmed, the large-scale capital overflowed, and other coins began to rebound. Last night, Ethereum surged instantly, driving various ecosystem tokens to rebound, but it only lasted for half the night before basically dying down. The project team of op took advantage of the rebound to quickly sell some coins. So this is a bait, thinking that this time it will rise. Do not hold any illusions, secondary capital will still flow into meme coins, just look at pepe's steady rise to understand.
#非BTC板块市场走势 #MEME趋势风向 #pepe⚡
$PEPE

At this time, reconsider whether the logic behind buying the coins still holds. If the basic logic of the coins you hold hasn't changed, continue to hold. The capital that Bitcoin drains will definitely overflow, that's true in any financial market. But it definitely won't overflow to altcoins; this round is BTC + meme. The rebound of memes will be at the latest by the weekend
#BTC再创新高96K #MEME趋势风向 #pepe⚡
$PEPE