加密老四

The small-scale trend structure is still in a bearish advantage, so we continue to expect the price to clear the bullish liquidity at 102k;

Last night's drop did not cleanly clear the bullish liquidity below, so I will not consider going long until the price reaches 102k. If I must take action, I would prefer to wait for the price to rebound to 106k to go short.

In summary, there don't seem to be any good trading opportunities in the short term, so let's just watch!

无论中短期趋势怎么无序震荡
中长期趋势我仍然认为还有继续上涨的空间
也就是说，这轮牛市还在，比特币能继续突破历史新高
关键在于美联储的降息，确实还没开始，连强劲的降息预期都还没怎么释放...

但，我对山寨币已彻底丧失信心
想必，很多人也是如此...
所以我目前的策略就是持有比特币现货躺平...

如何发现自己是这个世界的NPC：

1. 经常感到无聊，没有主线任务。
2. 建模简陋，只有过年过节才有机会更新皮肤。
3. 手里金币经常不足，所以也不怎么消耗资源。
4. 出现地点重复，任务模式重复且固定。
5. 游戏中经常发呆。
6. 只会在别人主动触发下开启对话。

不破不立，赶快砸吧！山寨再跌50%吧！这样墨迹，还不如来个痛快的！

It's not that projects on Binance Alpha are getting worse, but rather that there are fewer and fewer projects that can afford to provide liquidity and handle the selling pressure of airdrops.

Many projects, after one or two years of development and personnel expenses, can't even come up with 500,000 U, let alone get listed.

And those few that are particularly wealthy only want to ensure they attract HODLers and not just get on Alpha.

When there are results, one must think about preserving wealth first, stabilizing it to ensure a worry-free life in the later years, and then consider further steps.
In the last cycle, many people made a fortune, and the speed of wealth growth far exceeded the speed of understanding, leading to mismatches.
In the end, they struggled and fell back into poverty or even debt.
I have many friends like this around me,
Each has their own way of failing,
Obsessed with NFTs, they fail,
Those who gamble on contracts with spot trading and memes fail,
Cash out to invest in mining businesses fail,
Playing the market fails,
On-chain financial management fails.

At the end of 2024, there were multiple reports in the media about outrageous behavior on the pump platform. Many people, in order to make money from memes and lacking any special talents, resorted to exposing their bodies, self-harm, and other boundary-crossing behaviors to attract traffic, while the pump platform did not intervene. I believe this is intolerable. The U.S. judiciary may have already begun to pay attention at that time, and it is reasonable to conduct arrests now after spending several months investigating and gathering evidence.

比特币这波主观交易做空有些赌的性质在里面了...

加仓的原因除了左侧摸空仓位太小以外，剩下的就是期货流动性层面上，我一直在等待这个针对108.5k的流动性抓取行为。

因为现货市场没有参与107k以上的拉升，那么期货市场拉盘的原因就只能是针对空头清算，我看到空头完全被清算后，就开始了空单建仓...

不过价格能快速跌出建仓区，确实是运气，因为没人知道以色列什么时候开始攻击德黑兰...

不过在我的视角下，就算两边没有升级战局，这里也应该回调了，过去3天一单没开的原因主要还是因为现货溢价没有走出强势反弹。

当下回调既然已经走出来了，且价格回到区间中位，就继续按照之前直播里提到的交易思路进行止盈，不过我留下了一半空单，并挂上了108k+的保本止损；

这么做的原因是考虑到当前市场结构更有可能走收敛三角，而不是标准的平行区间震荡；

如果后续还有下跌，因为空单还剩一些，至少不会让我提前抄底做多...

总之目前我的交易思路很简单，价格在106.6k以上，找机会做波段空，在这以下，找机会做波段多，只要价格回到这个位置，就止盈...

如果价格直接穿过这个位置，那么就谨慎对待，不急于开单...

I increasingly agree with a saying: it is extremely important to constrain the intake of information.

Especially now, when scrolling through Twitter, there is actually very little information that can genuinely help you maintain clear judgment and provide direction.

Most of the time, we are being pushed along rather than thinking for ourselves.

So, it is truly necessary to do subtraction at the right time and build our own information system.

One method I have been trying recently is:

When the intake of information becomes excessive and my thoughts start to get confused, I force myself to sit down and reduce the fragments of thoughts in my mind to just three points—

Then I focus on perfecting, validating, and acting based on these three points.

If they can withstand scrutiny, I won't procrastinate and will execute directly.

The 80/20 rule tells us: only by eliminating 70% of the useless parts can we refine the 30% that is truly meaningful to perfection!

可能我愚钝吧，我知道在 crypto 圈子里，稳定币有什么作用。

然后，我看到各种传统金融的人鼓吹稳定币，感觉上，他们讲了一大堆稳定币是革命、稳定币有利可图，在传统货币、金融、贸易里面可以做什么，似乎想隐含地表达什么

但是我就是找不到他们隐晦表达的那个点。

或许，他们就是说点废话吧。164

BTC
Daily chart shows a continuation of bullish trend
Daily chart has formed trend lines at the bottom 4 times
Directly bullish

After a whole weekend of sideways fluctuations, the short-term futures liquidity of $BTC has begun to gradually accumulate!

Since there are no new liquidation zones, the short-term remains 50/50 in direction, with an upward target at 108k and a downward target at 102k;

At this time, as long as the price stays within the current range, there is no point in taking left-side trades. I have a strong feeling that this week may be very boring...

The goal is to prepare for a big market movement next week or the week after!

Therefore, either make short-term trades or patiently wait.

This time I will firmly implement the understanding of "good hunters treat well"!

If there are no opportunities, I will not open a position no matter what!

Only after most people are exhausted or wiped out will the market start to hand out money...

Currently, the market seems to have little reaction to the situation of war zone upgrades, largely because Iran's oil refining and storage facilities have not been attacked.

There seems to be some tacit understanding between Israel and Iran, allowing for severe strikes, but without disrupting the market?

After all, the latest news indicates that the targets of both sides' attacks are starting to feel more about people than about things...

LABUBU火了以后，泡泡玛特的人比以前更多了…

人们摇盒子的时候多了一丝投机情绪…

这算实体扫链吗？
😂

早上跟人聊到几个链的差距，想了下我的习惯，我主要是玩bsc，其他链也玩，试过几次之后发现还是只能在链热的时候去玩一下，链没什么资金的时候，就找一些之前看好的资产底部买一下，不需要高频率操作。

Sol主要是玩热点盘，但是没有资金的时候，热点盘都没量，很难玩
Base不是很熟悉，目前主要是围绕virtucal去了解了一下
Sui就是需要等 $sui 本身涨的时候，才会有几个meme能起来一下
Bsc目前的玩法就是看庄，庄资源好，可以不用关注市值走势这些，可能会得到一些支持，另一个就是看本身的玩法，比如分红盘和社区盘

盘点下bsc上的持仓

$u : 目前看不出是哪一类，交易量不大，持仓人数也不多，但是价格一直不跌，应该不是奔着交易赛来的，看看能到哪里了
$jager ：有usd1底池，0.11%的筹码一直在，因为交易量少了很多，现在分红又要凑几天领一次了。
$CA ：usd1底池，上了alpha，虽然价格在跌，但是交易量一直很大。
EGL1 ：55m上车，现在45m，看看能不能拿交易赛第一名让我回本
0xdream ：mcp基础协议，7m上车，现在4.3m
$KOMA ：老老老老老项目了，不用说了，一直在，一个没卖
$BMP ：图币项目，之前在eth，最近跨过来的，3m上的，现在3.9m

Since I entered the crypto world, every day when I wake up, the first thing I do is grab my phone, feeling anxious and apprehensive. Indeed, it was right to place a sell order the day before yesterday, but not selling means I'm destined to ride the roller coaster again.

Last night, I jumped into a $u, initially not knowing what it was, just that it was skyrocketing. I entered at 3.1m and got stuck, averaging down to 2.5m. Now it's at 3.8m, and surprisingly, after a night, it's still stable. I heard it's been taken over by a foreign CTO, and it's on both TG and Twitter, so I'll hold on a bit longer.

$AURA That man has gotten on the car, those who understand, understand
I have great respect for that man, and I am also good friends with Paris, not because that man got on the car or anything
but rather based on my opinion, I believe $AURA is indeed going to pull back in a short time
I have already completely cashed out at this position, leaving nothing behind, because my position was relatively high at 0.08

Including when I saw $aura surge to 100M today, I also tweeted to remind that yesterday's logic still applies, smart brothers should have boarded the car for the marker I posted yesterday $NOMNOM

At the same time, as I mentioned in my analysis yesterday, $AURA is no longer just an ordinary dead cat bounce, but a reversal!

昨天讲了大饼如果想要突破前高应该会进行吸血以太。
建议大家不要去追以太。这不。以太昨天晚上cpi利好出来之后拉了一下就被大饼砸下来了。难绷。
今日收大饼完线以后日线客观上来说目前形态上来说多空55分吧。不难看也不好看。
但是收线价格还是都在支撑以上的。
大饼在108500支撑上方。
以太在2730支撑上方。
大饼2日线3日线看形态还是可以的。属于上升阶段的调整k线。
以太对大饼汇率目前还很强现在暂时突破了周线均线ma20压制。暂时受到0.026附近的阻力。但是形态很好。应该可以突破这个汇率。
美股昨天也是冲高回落。目前指数在19500点上方。也是受到2日线的均线支撑。日线形态有些差。
总结。
客观上讲多空现在都有可能毕竟不管美股还是大饼日线形态都有点差。
主观个人看法。目前还是看多。因为都在支撑上方。

This Wednesday (today) and Thursday (tomorrow) the CPI and PPI data will be released. Current market expectations suggest there is a possibility of an increase. According to the data forecast from the Cleveland Fed, the broad CPI is 2.4%, which is higher than the previous value but lower than market expectations, while the core CPI is 2.84%, the same as the previous value. Additionally, Nick's analysis shows the broad CPI is 2.4% and the core CPI is 2.9%. Therefore, overall, the probability that tonight's CPI data will be higher than expected is greater, which may trigger some minor fluctuations in the market.

However, this data is unlikely to affect the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and does not represent the inflation trend after the implementation of reciprocal tariffs. Still, it can easily influence investor sentiment, making investors aware that inflation has already rebounded even before the implementation of reciprocal tariffs. The Federal Reserve may adopt a more aggressive stance on monetary policy, which could impact the trend of risk markets.

In the last couple of days
Several conspiracy big dogs on the BSC chain have emerged
Often reaching tens of millions
The conspiracy in the USD1 zone is mostly bullish

These are all extremely sharp sickles
The target is your wallet
Don't think the market is dull and rush in
Enduring loneliness is a necessary lesson in investing

The only thing worth buying on BSC is $BC
If you got on the 3M train, a 50% profit is quite a feast