加密大师兄-

Bitcoin Spot ETF had a net outflow of $812 million yesterday, the second highest in history

According to SoSoValue data, yesterday (Eastern Time August 1) the total net outflow of Bitcoin Spot ETF was $812 million.

As of the time of writing, the total net asset value of Bitcoin Spot ETF is $146.479 billion, with an ETF net asset ratio (market value as a percentage of the total market value of Bitcoin) of 6.46%, and the historical cumulative net inflow has reached $54.18 billion.

A 20-day streak of net inflows has ended, with Ethereum Spot ETF seeing a net outflow of $152 million yesterday

According to SoSoValue data, yesterday (Eastern Time August 1) the total net outflow of Ethereum Spot ETF was $152 million.

As of the time of writing, the total net asset value of Ethereum Spot ETF is $20.108 billion, with an ETF net asset ratio (market value as a percentage of the total market value of Ethereum) of 4.7%, and the historical cumulative net inflow has reached $9.489 billion.

President Trump has just fired the head of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

But the downward revision of employment data may be just what Trump needs to persuade Powell to cut interest rates.

The Federal Reserve will only cut rates if inflation consistently falls to the target of 2% or if the labor market weakens.

Today's downward adjustment is -258,000, and combined with the weak July data, it actually raises the likelihood of a rate cut in September to over 80%.

Trump has already fired the commissioner responsible for producing this data, but this data certainly helps him lower interest rates.

The market is indeed in an unprecedented period.

President Trump stated that he will fire the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics due to the employment reports for May and June being significantly revised down by 258,000 jobs today.

Trump said the employment data "is provided by officials appointed by Biden" and that it has "falsified the employment data."

In July, the U.S. added 73,000 jobs, below the expected 106,000.

The unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, in line with the expected 4.2%.

The June employment report was revised down, showing only an increase of 14,000 jobs.

The labor market seems to be weakening!

The unemployment rate has slightly increased, non-farm jobs fell short of expectations, and more critically, the non-farm numbers for May and June were actually revised down by 258,000...

If inflation data cannot force the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, then let's use employment data instead!

President Trump stated that if Federal Reserve Chairman Powell continues to refuse to cut interest rates, the Federal Reserve Board 'should take control of the situation'.

Gm #BNB

Just now, the tariffs for 67 countries have once again been postponed to take effect on August 7th. It seems that Trump still wants to negotiate for more benefits!

It is estimated that in a week, some countries' tariffs will be reduced significantly compared to what was announced in the morning!

Trump granted Mexico a 90-day exemption from additional tariffs to allow both sides to negotiate a broader trade agreement.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin stated in an interview with CNBC that the U.S. believes it is ready to reach a trade agreement with China, but it is “not yet finalized” and still requires Trump's approval.

Good night #BNB

Good night, the daily routine of mouth cannons!

After Federal Reserve Chairman Powell kept interest rates unchanged for the fifth consecutive time, President Trump made a statement:

Trump stated that Powell is "too late, too angry, too stupid, too politicized."

President Trump announced that the United States and Mexico have agreed to extend the current tariff arrangement for another 90 days!

The era of #BNB has arrived! @CZ @Yi He @币安广场

On July 30, the Trump administration officially released a digital asset policy report led by the president's working group.

This 166-page document is seen as a roadmap for the regulation of digital assets in the United States, covering several core areas: 391 mentions of cryptocurrency, 130 mentions of Bitcoin, 32 mentions of DeFi, and 28 mentions of Ethereum.

The report proposes five major directions:

First, to establish the United States' leadership position in the global digital asset market, advocating for the CLARITY Act to authorize the CFTC to regulate the non-securities digital asset spot market, and encouraging the SEC and CFTC to support innovative projects through mechanisms such as safe harbors and regulatory sandboxes.

Second, to promote the modernization of bank regulation, ending the discriminatory policy against the cryptocurrency industry known as 'Choke Point 2.0', and clarifying banks' legal authorities in areas such as custody, stablecoin issuance, and tokenization.

Third, to strengthen the sovereignty of the dollar, emphasizing the promotion of the dollar's dominance through the GENIUS Act, while legislating to prohibit central banks from issuing CBDCs, in order to protect financial privacy and civil liberties.

Fourth, to combat illegal financial activities, clarifying the compliance responsibilities of participants in the DeFi ecosystem, emphasizing anti-money laundering obligations, while avoiding excessive regulation that could affect legitimate self-custody activities.

Fifth, to advance tax system reform, requiring the Treasury Department and IRS to clarify the tax treatment of digital asset activities such as mining and staking, and to push for legislation that includes digital assets under the scope of wash sale rules.

The report has received positive feedback from the industry and is viewed as a significant shift in the U.S. stance on cryptocurrency policy.

The Crypto Council stated that this is the result of collaboration across all levels of government, which will provide clear guidance for the industry. Jito Labs' legal team also believes that this report is an important step towards achieving regulatory transparency.

However, the report did not disclose key issues such as crypto reserves, and it also acknowledged that Congress has yet to pass the market structure bill. Current policies still face many uncertainties, and legislative progress will determine the speed of implementation.

Nevertheless, this report has laid the foundation for the establishment of a regulatory framework for digital assets in the United States, marking the beginning of a more mature stage of institutional development for the cryptocurrency market.

GM #BNB

Summary of comments by Federal Reserve Chairman Powell (July 30, 2025):

1. The current policy stance "puts us in a favorable position"

2. The slowdown in economic growth reflects a slowdown in consumer spending

3. Activity in the U.S. real estate sector remains weak

4. U.S. inflation rate remains "slightly high"

5. Tariffs are driving up prices on some goods

6. Government policies continue to evolve

The Federal Reserve's pause in policy continues!

During the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision:

1. Trump imposes a 40% tariff on Brazil

2. Trump imposes a 50% tariff on imported semi-finished copper

3. Trump imposes a 50% general tariff on imported copper-intensive derivatives

4. Trump states that a "very clear agreement" will be reached with China

5. Trump states that BRICS nations are an attack on the U.S. dollar

6. Trump states that negotiations are ongoing with India!

President Trump announces a trade agreement with South Korea, including:

1. $350 billion investment in the U.S.

2. $100 billion in energy procurement

3. 15% tariff on products imported from South Korea to the U.S.

4. 0% tariff on goods imported from the U.S. to South Korea!

After Powell's press conference, the likelihood of no rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2025 surged to 25%.

Kalsh stated that the probability of two rate cuts has decreased from 40% to 33%, while the probability of one rate cut has increased from 24% to 27%!

Good night😴 #BNB

Summary of the Federal Reserve's decision (July 30, 2025):

1. The Federal Reserve has kept interest rates unchanged for the fifth consecutive time.

2. The Federal Reserve voted 9 to 2 to decide to keep interest rates unchanged.

3. Indicators show a slowdown in economic growth.

4. The U.S. inflation rate remains "slightly elevated."

5. The unemployment rate remains low, and the labor market is "strong."

6. Waller and Bowman hold differing opinions, favoring a 25 basis point rate cut.

Despite Trump's call for a 300 basis point rate cut, the Federal Reserve continues to pause interest rate hikes.

#BNB is no longer far from 1000!

Information: Trump claims the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in September

BRICS is an attack on the US dollar — Trump

Trump: We will wait and see what happens in India — Trump

You will know this weekend — Trump

U.S. second quarter imports decline drives GDP performance better than expected, Trump immediately calls on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates!

President Trump imposes a 25% tariff on India's purchase of Russian energy and military equipment, and levies a 'fine' starting from August 1.

Trump stated that the tariff deadline of August 1 will not be extended.

However, last weekend, the United States and China extended the tariff deadline by another 90 days.

How do whales place bets?

Bullish on BTC and ETH, bearish on altcoins and MEME, Hyperliquid data reveals the "split" strategy of smart money

As of July 30, the platform's top traders held a total position of $4.6 billion, with long positions at $3 billion and short positions at $1.57 billion, resulting in an overall long-short ratio of 66%.

However, this "bullish" trend is showing structural changes: bullish on mainstream coins, bearish on altcoins and MEME, indicating a split strategy of long-term optimism and short-term conservatism.

Whales have a clear stance on BTC and ETH; for instance, in BTC, long positions reach $1.2 billion while short positions are only $479 million, and the average liquidation distance for shorts is significantly higher than for longs (48.3% vs 14%), mostly being hedge positions. TON and AAVE are also on the bullish list.

In contrast, sentiment on altcoins and MEME coins is extremely pessimistic: the long-short ratios for tokens like FARTCOIN, PUMP, PEPE, SUI, DOGE, and BONK are mostly below 10%, with short positions generally in profit, indicating these assets have become the "harvesting ground" for whales.

Not only are the data diverging, but the strategy styles are also clearly layered: the whale at the top of the profit rankings uses a long-short hedging strategy; although the total positions are balanced, the main profits come from shorting altcoins. The second is an extreme long-term bull, with ETH long positions showing a floating profit of over $7 million, holding positions for several months; while the third focuses mainly on short-term high-frequency short positions, with holding times of less than 2 hours, currently entering a light position wait-and-see state.

Overall, whales remain optimistic about core assets like BTC and ETH in the long term, but are cautious about high-volatility assets and are even actively shorting them, with short-term sentiment being relatively cold.

For ordinary investors, it is more important to focus on these traders' position combinations and risk management methods rather than simply following the crowd.

The following is an analysis of the data for the upcoming US June Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report:

Based on the conversion of CPI and PPI data, economists expect June core PCE to rise by +0.29% month-on-month, the highest growth rate since February. At the same time, the year-on-year growth rate is expected to reach 2.8%, indicating an increase in core inflationary pressure.

Overall PCE is expected to rise by +0.32% month-on-month, with the year-on-year growth rate rising to 2.5%, showing a certain rebound in inflation in the mid-year stage.

Data Details

Item Estimated Value Previous Value Notes
Core PCE (Month-on-Month) +0.29% +0.08% (May) Significant increase, indicating enhanced inflation momentum
Core PCE (Year-on-Year) 2.8% 2.6% Close to the Federal Reserve's 2% target upper limit
Overall PCE (Month-on-Month) +0.32% +0.0% Mainly driven by energy and service prices
Overall PCE (Year-on-Year) 2.5% 2.4% Still in a moderate upward channel

1. CPI and PPI rebound drives synchronized PCE rebound: Core service prices in the June CPI (especially housing and transportation services) rose rapidly, and price increases were also seen in the service and goods segments of the PPI, creating price pressure after transmission to PCE.
2. Service sector inflation is sticky: Core PCE focuses more on service prices; unlike CPI, PCE weights housing lower, but medical, financial, and other service items have higher weights. Prices in these categories still show an upward trend.
3. Consumer spending has not noticeably slowed: Despite high interest rates, the resilience of the job market and consumer savings support spending, maintaining certain tension on the demand side.

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🏦 Policy Implications
• Impact on the Federal Reserve: If the data meets or exceeds expectations, it will support the Federal Reserve in maintaining current interest rates and delay the timing of the first rate cut this year.
• Core PCE is the inflation indicator most closely monitored by the Federal Reserve; the 2.8% year-on-year growth rate is still significantly above the 2% target, which will reinforce its "data-dependent" stance.

⸻

📈 Market Reaction Prediction

Market Sector Expected Reaction
US Treasury Yields May rise, as the market adjusts expectations for rate cuts
Dollar Index May strengthen, as rate cut expectations cool
US Stocks High valuation sectors (e.g., technology) may face certain pressure
Cryptocurrency Bearish

Hong Kong Stablecoin Regulation Implemented, First Batch of Licenses to be Issued Early Next Year

On July 29, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority released guidelines for stablecoin regulation, clarifying the license application process, KYC requirements, reserve asset standards, and anti-money laundering compliance mechanisms, laying the foundation for the implementation of the 'Stablecoin Ordinance', which will take effect on August 1, 2025. Hong Kong is responding to the global regulatory vacuum for stablecoins with institutional design.

Licensed issuers must establish a physical presence in Hong Kong, with a paid-up capital of no less than HKD 25 million, and meet strict requirements such as full reserve backing, independent asset custody, and information disclosure. The first batch of licenses is expected to be announced in early 2026, with a maximum of 10 licenses, focusing initially on cross-border settlements and Web3 scenarios.

The regulatory framework places particular emphasis on identity verification mechanisms: stablecoin holders must undergo KYC, complete customer due diligence, and retain data for at least 5 years. Non-customer users involved in suspicious funding chains must also undergo additional identity verification. While this move strengthens risk prevention, it has raised concerns in the industry about restricted user growth.

The guidelines also establish specifics on multi-currency issuance, tokenized asset custody, and flexible market-making mechanisms, while allowing licensees to distribute through overseas channels. The Monetary Authority insists on technological neutrality and a 'risk-based' approach, not outright prohibiting access methods like VPNs.

Currently, companies that have clearly applied for licenses include JD.com, Ant International, and Standard Chartered Bank's Hong Kong subsidiary. Industry insiders estimate that around 50-60 potential applicants exist, mostly from Chinese payment and internet companies.

In the context of a still-unified global regulatory framework, Hong Kong may be seizing the initiative in stablecoin regulation. This institutional design could become the first replicable template for fiat-backed stablecoin regulation in the Asia-Pacific region.