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March Major Cryptocurrency Events
March 13 — Hemi Mainnet Launch — U.S. PPI Data
March 14 — Expiration of U.S. Government Spending Bill
March 13 to March 16 — Siargao Island — PayFi Offline Event
March 17 — CME Launches SOL Futures Contract, First SOL Institutional Derivative Goes Live
March 18 — Bank of Japan Interest Rate Decision — $MELANIA Unlocks $23 Million
March 19 — Federal Reserve FOMC Meeting — Trump's Second Term First Congressional Speech
March 22 — Final Approval of Litecoin Spot ETF, Fate of the First LTC ETF Revealed
March 23 — Grayscale SOL Spot ETF Second Review, Also a Key Battle for SOL Planning — ENA Q3 Ends
March 28 — U.S. Core PCE Price Index for February
March 31 — USDR to Be Delisted from Kraken Europe.

In the cryptocurrency market, the altcoin season index has fully entered a phase dominated by Bitcoin. In the future, will there still be an altcoin season? Currently, the Bitcoin price is hovering around 80K, while altcoins have significantly dropped 📉. If Bitcoin were to fall to around 65K, which is the cost of MicroStrategy, wouldn't altcoins have to drop another 90% on top of the already 90% decline? #跟单交易

3.14 PM, Bitcoin faces heavy pressure above, primarily shorting
Today, the overall cryptocurrency market is showing a slow oscillation and recovery. After Bitcoin's price touched a low of 79903, it gradually oscillated upward, peaking at 82249. Ethereum's trend is similar to that of Bitcoin; although the bulls have seen some rebounds, each rebound has encountered strong counterattacks from the bears, failing to break through the bearish resistance. If you feel overwhelmed in trading, it might be a good idea to adjust your strategy in a timely manner. Remember, it is only when you take the first step that we can move forward together. It is never too late to change; let's become giants in action.
Currently, Bitcoin's price has fallen below the middle track. What was originally a key support level has now turned into upward resistance, revealing the market's weakness. From the 4-hour chart, Bitcoin has seen five consecutive days of decline. Although there were minor rebounds during this period, the strength was weak, and the upward momentum was clearly insufficient, failing to pose an effective challenge to the bearish trend. Bitcoin has broken below the middle track, with support turning into resistance, and the market's weakness is evident. #你看好哪一个山寨币ETF将通过？

Recent news indicates that Trump will implement trade protection policies during his second term, imposing tariffs on goods from multiple countries and disrupting the steady rhythm of the global economy.

Canada has taken the lead in adjusting its asset allocation, selling off $400 billion in U.S. Treasury bonds, which has drawn attention from international financial markets, and the average debt per capita for the American public has increased.

Subsequently, the U.S. has faced various negative impacts: global economic turbulence, a decline in the purchasing power of the dollar, fluctuations in the Dow Jones index, and a reduction in the public's retirement accounts; rising living costs, uncertain energy supply, a hit to the automotive industry, and increased loan interest rates; hindered government and corporate development, slow progress on infrastructure projects, difficulties in corporate financing, and rising prices.

The current situation may just be the beginning, with Japan and the EU possibly adjusting their holdings of U.S. debt, and countries like Russia increasing their allocations in RMB assets, leading investors to diversify their investments. Trump's 'America First' policy may not meet expectations, and the future direction of trade policy remains to be observed, while the global economy continues to adapt to changes. #美国加征关税 #MGX投资币安 #CPI数据来袭

Stunning Turnaround! The Probability of the Federal Reserve Cutting Rates in June Soars to 59.8%: Will the Market Explode or Plunge Simultaneously?
The Fed's rate cut rumors are resurfacing! The probability of a rate cut in June has climbed to 59.8%, and if it breaks 72% within two months, the overall situation will be basically locked in. From May to July, opportunities and crises coexist, with a dual score that quickens the heartbeat:
Outlook A: Rate Cut Pause in June
On May 1st, a possible rate hike may lead to a sharp drop in the Japanese market; after the Federal Reserve meeting on May 8th, the market is likely to recover. However, from March to early May, the risk of continuous declines or even one-sided crashes looms large!
Outlook B: Rate Cut Rescue in July
After the Japanese monetary policy meeting on June 17 and the Federal Reserve meeting on June 18, the market may experience a stepwise decline. However, before this, if Japan raises rates once between May and June, the impact of a significant drop could be enough to shock the entire scene!
Interest rate cut expectations, market undercurrents surge—are you betting on a warming rebound or predicting a plunge into the abyss? The suspense is explosive, and the gamble has begun! #跟单交易 #美国2月PPI数据低于预期

TRUMP coin has dropped from a high of 77 to a low of 9.54U, and recently started a small-scale rebound, which is based on the fact that Bitcoin can still consolidate at this position.

In the future, Trump coin may benefit from favorable news.

1. The Trump team is negotiating with Binance's US branch, possibly for investment or collaboration on developing a stablecoin, but it is not yet finalized and there is uncertainty.
2. Empowering the $TRUMP ecosystem, after all, there is a major consortium behind it.
3. Another unexpected detail is that perhaps Binance founder Zhao Changpeng (CZ) is seeking a pardon from the Trump administration, which may be related to investment negotiations.
4. The Trump team is investing in Binance.
All of these possibilities exist, so when it's low, it’s reasonable to gradually buy some around 10U #乌俄停火 #你看好哪一个山寨币ETF将通过？ .

When is the real bottom-fishing opportunity?

There is a relatively reliable situation: when the price of a cryptocurrency drops sharply, a huge trading volume suddenly appears at the bottom, and the price quickly rebounds within 15 to 30 minutes, forming a 'pin bar' line. This situation usually indicates that the market makers are buying heavily at the bottom. Because during a rapid decline, retail investors are too afraid to buy, only market makers would buy a large amount at this position.

Bottom-fishing is not about rushing in just because the price is low; it’s about understanding the true market situation. Market makers have many tricks; a large bullish candle could be a trap, while a rapid rebound after a sharp decline is the real opportunity. I hope this experience helps you take fewer detours and not get caught halfway up the mountain again! #CPI数据来袭 #掌握市场

Market Analysis on March 13th at Noon: Observing BTC's 4-hour chart, the price is operating above the middle band of the Bollinger Bands, and the middle band shows a slight upward trend, which may indicate that the market has some rebound potential. However, it is worth noting that the upper and lower bands of the Bollinger Bands are gradually converging, indicating that the price's volatility range is shrinking, and the forces of both bulls and bears are currently in a relatively balanced state. Based on this, we plan to conduct a short-term operation in the afternoon. Short-term operation suggestions are as follows: BTC: Buy on dips in the range of 82300-82800, setting a target price at 84000-84500, while setting 82000 as the stop-loss point. ETH: Similarly, in the range of 1850-1870, it is recommended to buy on dips, targeting 1950-2000, with 1830 as the defensive point.

From the one-hour perspective, the price of the pancake is operating below the middle line of the Bollinger Bands, overall in a stepwise downward trend, with a significantly strong short-term bearish sentiment. The blogger believes that there is a high probability of back-and-forth tug-of-war between bulls and bears in the future market trends! Currently, short-term operations are still recommended to focus on short positions!
Around 82000-82600
The market is changing rapidly, this suggestion is for reference only #掌握市场 #SEC推迟多个现货ETF审批 #加密市场反弹

ETH is currently fluctuating around the 2000 point mark, indicating a potential for further adjustments. In terms of short-term liquidity, ETH is performing better than BTC. We previously discussed that when the MVRV ratio is below 1, it may indicate a potential buying opportunity. In earlier analysis, we anticipated that ETH might reverse around the 1780 area and rise to the 1950 area.
However, currently, ETH's price is not only below the 1950 point but also below the 100-hour moving average. Meanwhile, the RSI indicator on the hourly chart is also below the 50 area, forming a short-term downward trend. We expect that a bullish reversal may only occur if ETH stabilizes in the 1890 to 1950 area.
If ETH cannot rise to the 1890 to 1950 area, it may continue to decline, with the next resistance area still being 1950. However, if ETH can clearly break through the current downward trend, it may rise to the critical resistance level below the 2014 area. In the short term, ETH's support area is between 1800 and 1780.

#ETH

Emergency Reminder! At 8:30 PM tonight, the market will encounter a significant event—the release of the latest inflation data! At this moment, the success or failure of the Swan Unwinding Method may hinge on this one action. It is widely anticipated that tonight's CPI data may remain stable, while core CPI is expected to decrease by 3.1%. Whether you are a long who is trapped due to high buying or a short who is trapped after selling at a low, tonight's data may provide you with a valuable opportunity for unwinding. At 8:30 PM, let us focus on the CPI data together, wishing every investor the chance to seize this opportunity and good luck to all!

#CynthiaLummis重提比特币法案 #币安Alpha上新

Let's analyze the short-term trend of BTC. Today's strategy is still to take a short position first, and then switch to a long position. The plan is to start shorting in the price range of $83,000 to $84,000, but it is important not to be greedy in the market; once a reasonable profit is obtained, one should immediately close the position to lock in gains. From the current small-level charts, it seems that the market has a demand for a pullback, so we can wait for the price to drop before looking for an appropriate time to go long.
#美国加征关税 #加密市场反弹

Brothers, please be patient

The daytime market may show signs of a rebound, but at night, the U.S. stock market should be vigilant against another crash. If the U.S. stock market is volatile tonight, the Asian market may welcome a good opportunity to buy the dip. If the U.S. stock market faces a circuit breaker again tonight, we may see the scenario of 312 (possibly referring to an important market low or event) again. Bitcoin may form a bottom around $74,000, which is about a 36% correction from its historical high of $110,000, something not uncommon during a bull market adjustment.

Immediately after, the U.S. stock market may face a sharp decline, with traditional financial giants facing bankruptcy risk. Subsequently, to stabilize the market, measures to inject liquidity may be taken, which would be an excellent time to invest fully. It is reported that as much as $21 billion in buy-the-dip funds is on the way.

MicroStrategy is also anxious, and for risk-averse investors, it may be wise to wait for the central bank to inject liquidity before increasing positions. Although it may not capture the lowest point, it can effectively avoid the floating loss risks brought by long-term consolidation.
#Strategy申请发行优先股 #加密市场回调

3.11 Morning News

Last night, after the US stock market opened, it plummeted sharply, and I sensed that Ethereum might break below the 20,000 mark today, and Bitcoin could also fall below the 80,000 mark. As for those altcoins, although their declines are not as severe as mainstream coins, the long whales of Bitcoin and Ethereum have suffered heavy losses in this wave of crash. The downward trend is fierce, but as long as we don’t exit the market, there will always be opportunities for a comeback.

Currently, the market is undergoing a massive purge, with no one spared from retail investors to whales and institutions. After they have all been purged from the market, perhaps a new turning point can be expected. Currently, the shutdown price for mainstream Bitcoin mining machines is roughly between 45,000 to 72,000 USD, and the current price is approaching the shutdown price of old machines. Altcoins have been on a downward trajectory since last April and have not stopped falling to this day. But extremes will reverse, and this is especially true in financial markets. It is expected that the largest bottom may form within this month. Let us patiently wait for the right moment to arrive.

#美股大跌 #MtGox钱包动态 #ETH巨鲸清算

For market makers of altcoins, as the sole 'big player' holding a large number of chips at the opening, adopting a strategy of crashing the market and going short, then buying back after the price drops by 90% to switch to going long, may be considered the optimal strategy in certain situations. However, the only risk of this strategy is that retail buying pressure is too strong, making it difficult to effectively lower the price.

But in the current environment of the cryptocurrency market, market makers seem to have little to worry about this issue, as most altcoins have already struggled to attract retail buying interest.

The price of ARB has dropped to 0.35U, causing 99% of holders to face losses. This news is quite heart-wrenching. I recall building my spot position at a cost of 1.21U, only to exit two years later at a price of 1.17U. When the price soared to 2.4U, I should have doubled my profits, but I missed the opportunity due to not taking profits in time.

The path of investment is indeed ruthless. Many people still harbor hopeful expectations for the seasonal rise of altcoins, only to find that their account balances continue to shrink. Even if the altcoin season truly arrives and prices multiply by three or five times, it seems difficult to make up for the previous losses.

#鲸鱼囤币 #稳定币淘金热 #加密市场回调

This week's Bitcoin weekly chart looks starkly clear, presenting a long bearish candle. Its sharp decline makes one hesitant about the market, raising doubts. On the weekly chart, the bearish forces hold absolute dominance, firmly suppressing the price at low levels, with around 87 becoming a ceiling that is difficult to surpass for a rebound.

Faced with such a clear bearish trend, we should remain calm and follow the key support levels of 74, 68, and 55 on the weekly chart for our operations. When the price reaches these positions, it will be the time for us to look for rebound opportunities, needing to maintain our pace and advance gradually. Just like the previous strategy from 79 to 86 and then to 94, we rely on cost advantages, steadily moving forward wave after wave, allowing the 'retail investors' in the market to take turns, yet they find it hard to escape the fate of being harvested.

In the short term, 79 has become the current support level, while 825 constitutes the pressure level above. If the price hovers uncertainly around 825 and cannot stabilize, then the support at 79 is likely to be unsustainable, and the price will continue to test lower levels. As for 867, being a key strength point since 91, if it can effectively stabilize above this level, it could lead to a decent rebound. Otherwise, the pressure from the trend line will persist, and the market is like playing a dangerous 'seesaw' game; once support is lost, it will drop even more severely.

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Analyzing from the current form and technological structure, the market remains deeply trapped in a bearish trend, which has not undergone significant changes from the beginning. The main issue is that the sharp decline during the night to early morning period has prevented technical indicators and moving average systems from adjusting properly. Therefore, a correction in the short term is inevitable, and this correction usually manifests as sideways fluctuations in price within a certain range, accompanied by a rebound of certain magnitude. During this process, investors should avoid the urge to chase the rise; a more reasonable strategy is to wait for the rebound to reach an appropriate level before considering shorting.

Operational Strategy Suggestions:
Bitcoin: On Monday, if the price approaches the range of 83000 to 82500, consider shorting, with an initial target towards 80000. If this price level is effectively broken down, further bearish outlook can be considered.
Ethereum: If the current price is around 2060, consider shorting directly, with target price focusing on the range of 2000 to 1950.

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Guaranteed Cryptocurrency Trading Methods: Remember the Three 'Nos'.
1. Do not chase prices; make it a habit to buy when prices drop;
2. Do not hold onto orders;
3. Do not fully invest; otherwise, you will be passive and the opportunity cost will be high.
Six Short-term Trading Rules:
1. After consolidation at high and low points, prices often make new highs or new lows; wait for a clear trend change before acting;
2. Do not trade during sideways movement;
3. Buy on bearish days and sell on bullish days;
4. If a decline is slow, the rebound will be slow; if the decline is fast, the rebound will be strong;
5. Use the pyramid method to build positions;
6. After a cryptocurrency rises or falls, if it consolidates, do not sell high and buy low; wait for trend changes; if it trends down, liquidate; if it trends up, follow the trend. #白宫首届加密货币峰会 #德克萨斯州比特币战略储备法案

Those who fail to plan for the long term will also struggle to cope with the present; those lacking a global perspective will find it difficult to manage the local; and those without the ability to oversee the whole will be unable to grasp the overall situation. Lacking foresight in market predictions and clear strategies, relying solely on going with the flow, occasional successes are merely luck. We, however, proceed step by step, with clear thinking and decisive action, allowing us to continue to win. Today, the price reached a peak of 91257 and a low of 84600, with the overall trend aligning with our expectations. We adhere to a short strategy, successfully capturing over 6000 points of movement and nearly 200 points in Ethereum. In this one-sided market, as mentioned yesterday, the price after peaking will undergo consolidation, and consolidation is the best time to short.

Bitcoin's daily chart earlier formed a Doji candlestick; yesterday's high could not be sustained and instead showed a pattern of rising and then falling. Similarly, the midnight low could not continue, and a rebound occurred again in the early morning, consistent with the recent market style of back-and-forth tug-of-war between bulls and bears. From the 4-hour chart, both Bitcoin and Ethereum show a pattern of rising and then falling, with a medium-sized bearish candle along with a downward pin bar indicating a forming downtrend. On the path of the trend, we follow it in a timely manner, not limited to the local; as long as the rebound space is not greater than the downward space, we continue to hold a bearish view and pay attention to the price correction. In our operations, we focus on shorting during rebounds as the main strategy, but currently, it tests our ability to adapt and accurately control entry points. At present, the downward trend has not been broken, and the intraday upward movement has not been sustained, hence the bearish view remains unchanged. In the afternoon, Bitcoin operations continue to revolve around the rebound short strategy.

Specific suggestions are as follows: Bitcoin can be shorted in the range of 89000-89500 in the morning, targeting around 87000; Ethereum can be shorted in the range of 2200-2240, targeting around 2100. #特朗普签署行政命令 #加密市场回调