BTC日记
热点分析丨潜在机会丨风险提醒丨技术干货丨大家早晚暴富丨推特@BTCRIJI 丨 🛰BTCRIJI
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Is ETH really going to fail? Will it be crushed by SOL?
The performance of the Ethereum system in this round of market is not good, or not good enough, although there are many big narratives this year:
For example, the Cancun upgrade in March, the end of the Ethereum 2.0 investigation in June, and the approval of the ETF in July. It is said that each of them is strong enough to pull up a wave, but everyone has seen the price performance. From the beginning of the year to now, the increase is only 15%+, far less than BTC and SOL.
So is ETH really going to fail?
The main reason for ETH's weak performance is that the demand for ETH has decreased, and too much liquidity has been diverted by L2, which also gives Solana network hype opportunities.
In the long run, the future network will probably be a pattern of one super and many strong. Who can survive depends on user choices.
For example, the mobile phone systems IOS and Android occupy most of the market. We don’t need so many systems at all. Too many systems will only affect the user experience.
The biggest advantage of ETH ecosystem is that it is more stable than other ecosystems, so it has a greater chance of survival.
If you don’t consider short-term fluctuations, you will prefer ETH. If you are really struggling to decide whether to buy ETH or SOL, then buy both.
As the saying goes, “The two coin killers are always changing”, which one do you prefer?
$BTC $ETH $SOL #BTC日记
The performance of the Ethereum system in this round of market is not good, or not good enough, although there are many big narratives this year:
For example, the Cancun upgrade in March, the end of the Ethereum 2.0 investigation in June, and the approval of the ETF in July. It is said that each of them is strong enough to pull up a wave, but everyone has seen the price performance. From the beginning of the year to now, the increase is only 15%+, far less than BTC and SOL.
So is ETH really going to fail?
The main reason for ETH's weak performance is that the demand for ETH has decreased, and too much liquidity has been diverted by L2, which also gives Solana network hype opportunities.
In the long run, the future network will probably be a pattern of one super and many strong. Who can survive depends on user choices.
For example, the mobile phone systems IOS and Android occupy most of the market. We don’t need so many systems at all. Too many systems will only affect the user experience.
The biggest advantage of ETH ecosystem is that it is more stable than other ecosystems, so it has a greater chance of survival.
If you don’t consider short-term fluctuations, you will prefer ETH. If you are really struggling to decide whether to buy ETH or SOL, then buy both.
As the saying goes, “The two coin killers are always changing”, which one do you prefer?
$BTC $ETH $SOL #BTC日记
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BTC is going crazy with 7,000 points. Is there still a chance to get on board?
Don’t rush to chase it. The signal of stabilizing the market is that the four-hour level will not break the previous low. There are two entry opportunities according to different trends.
1. If the market falls, long orders will be entered at the first round of 15-minute level rebound. The resistance 53,200/support 49,600 range will be used in batches. The stop loss will be set at the previous low of 48,888.
2. If the market falls sharply, take the needle at 48,888. Use the needle method mentioned yesterday. How to judge it yourself?
This is the only range worth gambling from the current perspective. If the bottom is confirmed, 58,000 can be seen first. If the previous low is broken, it means that the 2 steps are invalid and you have to find a new opportunity.
$BTC $ETH $BNB #BTC日记
Don’t rush to chase it. The signal of stabilizing the market is that the four-hour level will not break the previous low. There are two entry opportunities according to different trends.
1. If the market falls, long orders will be entered at the first round of 15-minute level rebound. The resistance 53,200/support 49,600 range will be used in batches. The stop loss will be set at the previous low of 48,888.
2. If the market falls sharply, take the needle at 48,888. Use the needle method mentioned yesterday. How to judge it yourself?
This is the only range worth gambling from the current perspective. If the bottom is confirmed, 58,000 can be seen first. If the previous low is broken, it means that the 2 steps are invalid and you have to find a new opportunity.
$BTC $ETH $BNB #BTC日记
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When will you reduce your BTC position?
Today a friend asked me when I would start to short BTC. If we completely ignore all the news and look at the technical aspect, when one day you hear your second aunt who buys groceries and cooks every day, your fourth uncle who dances and walks his bird, your cousin who hangs out in bars and flirts with girls, and anyone who never pays attention to the investment field say, "I'm going to buy cryptocurrency. I heard that it's making money recently." Don't hesitate, just run. When the good news reaches everyone's ears, it means that the industry is going to collapse.
Blind guess, before the second quarter of 2025? Let's see as we go.
$BTC $ETH $BNB
Today a friend asked me when I would start to short BTC. If we completely ignore all the news and look at the technical aspect, when one day you hear your second aunt who buys groceries and cooks every day, your fourth uncle who dances and walks his bird, your cousin who hangs out in bars and flirts with girls, and anyone who never pays attention to the investment field say, "I'm going to buy cryptocurrency. I heard that it's making money recently." Don't hesitate, just run. When the good news reaches everyone's ears, it means that the industry is going to collapse.
Blind guess, before the second quarter of 2025? Let's see as we go.
$BTC $ETH $BNB
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Scam? BTC is going to return to zero? Has the market bottomed out?
First of all, I want to say that the Air Force has worked hard. They were not idle during the weekend and were crazy about output on Monday.
The main reason for this round of decline is the rush of funds before the interest rate cut. The top article on the homepage the day before yesterday has been analyzed, so I won’t repeat it here. If you read it carefully, you will not lose money at least in the next two days. It is recommended to read it carefully twice to roughly understand what is going on in this round of market.
Has the market bottomed out?
The existing indicators cannot determine whether it has bottomed out. Judging from the trading volume, the accelerated decline in the morning did not kill too many panic orders.
Can it rise back?
Maintain the view of the top article on the homepage the day before yesterday. It is just a technical correction, not a full reversal.
How to deal with it?
Keep cash, dare to buy spot in batches, and take the initiative to buy a set. Think about it, it is impossible to copy at the lowest point. Falling means that you can buy at a lower cost. Isn’t it a good thing?
My thoughts
If you don’t have a position in BTC spot, you can definitely build a base position at the current price of 5.4. Use 30% of the total BTC position you plan to buy. 4.5 will be enough to add 30% to the position, leaving 40% of the funds for response.
Don’t touch the contract if the market is not good. Learn to short. Diligence can’t make you rich. Do you see that I rarely open positions these days?
The necessity of position management
Some people will say, you said to add positions at 4.5, then why don’t you wait for 4.5 to be full, why don’t you go all-in to short?
I advise you to be sober. Here, adding positions at 4.5 does not mean that it will definitely reach 4.5, but that you will not stare blankly even if it reaches 4.5. You are trading, not a gambler. Trade by plan, not by feeling. It is more important to keep your funds relatively safe than anything else.
I believe that even if I emphasize it again, 90% of people still don’t have the patience to wait. When you are no longer trading with the dream of getting rich overnight, you should stay away from losses.
$BTC $ETH $DOGE #BTC☀ #BTC日记
First of all, I want to say that the Air Force has worked hard. They were not idle during the weekend and were crazy about output on Monday.
The main reason for this round of decline is the rush of funds before the interest rate cut. The top article on the homepage the day before yesterday has been analyzed, so I won’t repeat it here. If you read it carefully, you will not lose money at least in the next two days. It is recommended to read it carefully twice to roughly understand what is going on in this round of market.
Has the market bottomed out?
The existing indicators cannot determine whether it has bottomed out. Judging from the trading volume, the accelerated decline in the morning did not kill too many panic orders.
Can it rise back?
Maintain the view of the top article on the homepage the day before yesterday. It is just a technical correction, not a full reversal.
How to deal with it?
Keep cash, dare to buy spot in batches, and take the initiative to buy a set. Think about it, it is impossible to copy at the lowest point. Falling means that you can buy at a lower cost. Isn’t it a good thing?
My thoughts
If you don’t have a position in BTC spot, you can definitely build a base position at the current price of 5.4. Use 30% of the total BTC position you plan to buy. 4.5 will be enough to add 30% to the position, leaving 40% of the funds for response.
Don’t touch the contract if the market is not good. Learn to short. Diligence can’t make you rich. Do you see that I rarely open positions these days?
The necessity of position management
Some people will say, you said to add positions at 4.5, then why don’t you wait for 4.5 to be full, why don’t you go all-in to short?
I advise you to be sober. Here, adding positions at 4.5 does not mean that it will definitely reach 4.5, but that you will not stare blankly even if it reaches 4.5. You are trading, not a gambler. Trade by plan, not by feeling. It is more important to keep your funds relatively safe than anything else.
I believe that even if I emphasize it again, 90% of people still don’t have the patience to wait. When you are no longer trading with the dream of getting rich overnight, you should stay away from losses.
$BTC $ETH $DOGE #BTC☀ #BTC日记
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Understand in one article丨Why is the market falling instead of rising as the interest rate hike is getting closer?
The United States released non-farm data last night. The expectation was 175,000, but the actual number was 114,000. This is definitely good news for the cryptocurrency world. A rate cut in September is almost certain. So why did the market take a sharp turn for the worse? Let me share my humble opinion.
This is mainly because this round of US dollar interest rate cuts has been delayed for too long. The market actually expected the first interest rate cut to be in 2023. Later in June, it was postponed to September. Expectations have been used time and time again to provoke the nerves of the global market. To put it in an analogy, it is like hanging a carrot in front of a donkey, which you can see but cannot reach.
The expectation of interest rate cut has already entered the market, and everyone has been chasing this elusive carrot. Now the carrot is right in front of us and can be eaten soon. The good news is about to be realized, and the capital market has begun to rush forward, including the U.S. stock market, which has seen a gradually obvious correction in the long bull market. U.S. stock holdings have also shrunk significantly in recent days.
This is mainly because this round of US dollar interest rate cuts has been delayed for too long. The market actually expected the first interest rate cut to be in 2023. Later in June, it was postponed to September. Expectations have been used time and time again to provoke the nerves of the global market. To put it in an analogy, it is like hanging a carrot in front of a donkey, which you can see but cannot reach.
The expectation of interest rate cut has already entered the market, and everyone has been chasing this elusive carrot. Now the carrot is right in front of us and can be eaten soon. The good news is about to be realized, and the capital market has begun to rush forward, including the U.S. stock market, which has seen a gradually obvious correction in the long bull market. U.S. stock holdings have also shrunk significantly in recent days.
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How to deal with the global negative news‼ ️
The Federal Reserve will announce the interest rate tonight, and the rate cut is very likely to be postponed. This is also the cause of the market trend in the past two days, but there is no need to panic. The negative news has been partially vented in advance (BTC actually did not fall at all)
Conclusion: Regardless of whether the news is negative or positive, there is a high probability that there will be downward pins after the interest rate is announced.
Operation: Place an order before going to bed to receive the pin, and the pin point is determined in combination with the intraday trend.
I basically didn’t open a position last week. If there is no good opportunity, take a break. Don’t force it. 80% of the year is garbage time.
The general direction is still bullish. What you have to do is wait for the opportunity to enter the market, or even take the initiative to buy a set.
$BTC #美联储利率决策即将公布 $ETH
The Federal Reserve will announce the interest rate tonight, and the rate cut is very likely to be postponed. This is also the cause of the market trend in the past two days, but there is no need to panic. The negative news has been partially vented in advance (BTC actually did not fall at all)
Conclusion: Regardless of whether the news is negative or positive, there is a high probability that there will be downward pins after the interest rate is announced.
Operation: Place an order before going to bed to receive the pin, and the pin point is determined in combination with the intraday trend.
I basically didn’t open a position last week. If there is no good opportunity, take a break. Don’t force it. 80% of the year is garbage time.
The general direction is still bullish. What you have to do is wait for the opportunity to enter the market, or even take the initiative to buy a set.
$BTC #美联储利率决策即将公布 $ETH
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$CHZ still not running? What are you expecting?
CHZ is a clear market, the European Cup is getting closer and closer. No matter what the future trend is, the current risk-to-value ratio is too low. No matter whether you are making a profit or a loss now, leave the market immediately. If you run too slowly, be careful of being hung on the flagpole.
CHZ is a clear market, the European Cup is getting closer and closer. No matter what the future trend is, the current risk-to-value ratio is too low. No matter whether you are making a profit or a loss now, leave the market immediately. If you run too slowly, be careful of being hung on the flagpole.
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Practical Tips | Don’t be in a hurry to make money
Many people trade with a very frivolous attitude,
thinking that they only invested a few dozen dollars anyway, and if they blow up, they will stop playing, then the result will definitely be a blow up.
If you keep this mentality, no matter how much money you invest, it will eventually return to zero.
1. Take every transaction seriously. Don’t ignore the risk just because you invest little. Even a small investment can be quickly magnified, regardless of profit or loss;
2. Do a good job of research before investing. Understand market dynamics, learn basic technical analysis and fundamental analysis, rather than relying on intuition or blindly following the trend;
3. Set up a clear plan. Determine the maximum loss you are willing to bear and strictly abide by the stop loss point;
4. Be patient and take the time to learn. Don’t expect to get rich overnight. Steady accumulation and continuous learning can allow you to survive in this market.
$BTC $ETH
Many people trade with a very frivolous attitude,
thinking that they only invested a few dozen dollars anyway, and if they blow up, they will stop playing, then the result will definitely be a blow up.
If you keep this mentality, no matter how much money you invest, it will eventually return to zero.
1. Take every transaction seriously. Don’t ignore the risk just because you invest little. Even a small investment can be quickly magnified, regardless of profit or loss;
2. Do a good job of research before investing. Understand market dynamics, learn basic technical analysis and fundamental analysis, rather than relying on intuition or blindly following the trend;
3. Set up a clear plan. Determine the maximum loss you are willing to bear and strictly abide by the stop loss point;
4. Be patient and take the time to learn. Don’t expect to get rich overnight. Steady accumulation and continuous learning can allow you to survive in this market.
$BTC $ETH
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How to determine whether a support level is effective
We can generally evaluate the effectiveness of the support level through the following methods:
1. Price Action
Watch how the price behaves when it approaches the support level. A valid support level usually results in a significant bounce in price. If the price approaches this area and then slowly drops or stays there for a long time and then starts to bounce, this may indicate that the support level is valid.
Pay attention to how many times price touches a support level. The more times a support level is tested, the stronger its validity. However, be careful, as each time a support level is touched it may weaken its strength.
2. Volume
Trading volume is an important indicator for confirming the effectiveness of support levels. When the price falls near the support level, if the trading volume increases significantly and the price rebounds, it is generally regarded as a sign that the support level is effective. Increased trading volume indicates that there are buyers willing to take orders at this price level, supporting the price.
1. Price Action
Watch how the price behaves when it approaches the support level. A valid support level usually results in a significant bounce in price. If the price approaches this area and then slowly drops or stays there for a long time and then starts to bounce, this may indicate that the support level is valid.
Pay attention to how many times price touches a support level. The more times a support level is tested, the stronger its validity. However, be careful, as each time a support level is touched it may weaken its strength.
2. Volume
Trading volume is an important indicator for confirming the effectiveness of support levels. When the price falls near the support level, if the trading volume increases significantly and the price rebounds, it is generally regarded as a sign that the support level is effective. Increased trading volume indicates that there are buyers willing to take orders at this price level, supporting the price.
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Teach you a trick丨Learn to judge and use pressure points/support points
A support level is a level on the way down where it is expected that there will be enough buying to hold the price back from falling further. A resistance level is the opposite, it is a level on the way up where sellers are expected to prevent the price from rising further.
Support levels usually form when:
Over a period of time, the price has fallen to a certain level many times and then rebounded. This level may form a support level. In addition, moving averages can also serve as support levels.
A simple support level calculation formula:
First, find the low point A of a range, and then find the high point B. Next, use the formula:
Support levels usually form when:
Over a period of time, the price has fallen to a certain level many times and then rebounded. This level may form a support level. In addition, moving averages can also serve as support levels.
A simple support level calculation formula:
First, find the low point A of a range, and then find the high point B. Next, use the formula:
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Teach you a trick | How to make small losses and big profits
There are only two core points of trading. One is to trade with the trend; the other is to stop loss if you are wrong and take the order to magnify the profit if you are right. You can take profit when the profit retracement reaches the percentage you set.
1. Core Concept
1. Accuracy: It is the winning rate of placing orders.
2. Profit and loss ratio: the ratio of profit to loss
3. Position profit and loss ratio: When making money, always hold a heavy position, and when losing money, always hold a light position. (This is the most important point. How to achieve this is to never increase your position when you are losing money, and only increase your position when you are making a profit.)
4. Stop loss and exit: Stop loss is to control risk and prevent it from expanding again. There is a principle in Gann theory: cut losses and let profits run. Many investors like to hold orders when they lose money, but find it difficult to hold on when they make money. The result is often less profit and more loss.
1. Core Concept
1. Accuracy: It is the winning rate of placing orders.
2. Profit and loss ratio: the ratio of profit to loss
3. Position profit and loss ratio: When making money, always hold a heavy position, and when losing money, always hold a light position. (This is the most important point. How to achieve this is to never increase your position when you are losing money, and only increase your position when you are making a profit.)
4. Stop loss and exit: Stop loss is to control risk and prevent it from expanding again. There is a principle in Gann theory: cut losses and let profits run. Many investors like to hold orders when they lose money, but find it difficult to hold on when they make money. The result is often less profit and more loss.
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