Binance indicates a value of 68 as of today, so, analyzing the past, how much longer could this phase last?
Main phase of greed: on average 11–12 days
Having already spent a few days in this state, there remains a margin of about 5–10 additional days
If it rises to “extreme greed” (>75), that phase, once reached, would last about 7–8 days on average
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🎯 What does this mean operationally?
Currently, the market is in a moderate greed phase. Using the historical average duration, you would expect this sentiment to last about another week before the level drops to neutral (<56) and subsequently potentially moves to the fear phase (<45), accompanied by downward pressure on prices.
Here’s the possible evolution in the coming days:
Days 1–7: we remain in the greed area (56–75)
Towards day ~8‑12: possible descent into neutral (<56)
After ~10‑15 total days: risk of entering the “fear” phase
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✅ In conclusion
Your estimate that the period of greed could last a few more days is in line with the historical average (~11 days).
If the value remains above 75, it could enter the extreme phase, with an extension of another ~7 days.
Overall, it is reasonable to expect a reversal towards neutral or fear sentiments within 1–2 weeks, with a potential downward impact on prices.
#fearandgreedindex How long, on average, does a state of "fear" or "greed" last?
There is no public study that precisely measures the average duration of a single cycle of fear or greed in CNN's Fear & Greed Index. However, useful evidence emerges from historical statistics and empirical observations:
1️⃣. Daily sentiment distribution:
Over ~3,654 days (from launch in 2011 to today):
Extreme fear (0–24): 15% of days
Fear (25–44): 26%
Neutral (45–55): 17%
Greed (56–75): 32%
Extreme greed (76–100): 10% → Fear dominates almost 41% of the time, and greed dominates about 42% of the time.
2️⃣. Typical duration of movements:
Many analysts suggest that sentiment cycles on the index last on average 2–10 days when used with a swing trading perspective on daily timeframes.
Some experts do intraday trading based on even 4 or 8-hour cycles.
3️⃣. Behavior during extreme episodes:
In March 2020, the index remained below 10 (extreme fear) from March 5 to March 23 (about 18 days).
Similarly, long periods of "extreme greed" sentiment tend to end after a few days or a couple of weeks, but more often hover around a week.
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🔍 Comparative summary
Sentiment state Frequency over time Typical duration of a cycle
Fear (0–44) ~41% of days 5–10 days (often less) Greed (56–100) ~42% of days similar, 5–10 days Extremes (0–24 / 76–100) ~25% combined 1–3 weeks in the most marked cases
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🎯 Conclusion
In percentage terms, fears and greed alternate almost equally, with each present about 40% of the time.
In terms of duration, most cycles last from a few days up to 1–2 weeks.
Extreme events (e.g., crashes or speculative booms) can last even 2–3 weeks.
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