The upward momentum of Bitcoin is far from sufficient.
This mental preparation is necessary,
without liquidity support, there will be no continuous rise to new highs. Adding to this is the fact that today is the weekend, so Dogecoin, PEPE, SOL, BNB, Ethereum... altcoins are even worse.
In the long run, we still have to look at institutional purchases and interest rate cuts.
Everyone still has to endure for a while. Altcoins will hold on until the end of the year, if the situation is still the same by the end of the year, then it can be given up.
However, I can be sure of one thing, Bitcoin has definitely not reached its peak. Next, it depends on whether Dogecoin, Ethereum, SOL... and similar ones will still move. In any case, altcoins are quite difficult, no one can help, if there is an altcoin season, it's considered a blessing for everyone. If there really isn't, then you can only accept it.
In this wave, my desire level has dropped very low: As long as altcoins can outperform Bitcoin's growth rate, I consider it the start of altcoin season.
The current situation has hardly changed. The main players are desperately squeezing the last remaining retail investors. Bitcoin is fluctuating and continuously exploding, so short-term trading is the only option. Altcoins (Ethereum, Dogecoin, SOL, TRX, XRP…) have endless bottoms to buy, so we can only wait.
Therefore, today we will still try short positions from 100,200 to 103,500. Altcoin spot prices may struggle until the end of the year, Bitcoin is just for short-term trading, and there’s nothing else to add.
Bitcoin isn't actually that strong; it's just stronger than altcoins. Once it truly gains momentum, it will definitely drive the altcoins. The current situation is, altcoins have already been harvested down to the soles of their feet, if it goes any lower, the retail investors won't have any money left.
So, for now, it's at a standstill, the main players can't make big profits, the old retail investors can't make big profits either. The new retail investors have all run out, everyone is not making money.
Now this market situation, we have to endure again. Anyway, at most we can endure until 2025, if there is still no frenzy period throughout 2025, then holders of copycat assets can give up.
If Bitcoin shows that kind of madness, constantly surging, quickly washing out, reaching or exceeding everyone's psychological price, then this couple should have a chance for the copycat assets.
Based on the current situation, interest rate cuts should happen after September, this year there might be 1-2 rate cuts, anyway there are many uncertainties. At the end of the year, what the situation will be, no one knows, perhaps most people are also in a gambling mindset.
Let me explain, there are mainly two things in the past few days: 1. The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision for June 2025 will be announced at 3:00 AM Beijing time on June 19. 2. The conflict with Iran, preventing escalation and the next steps from the United States.
Both of these matters have a significant impact on recent price changes.
Today's Bitcoin is in a slightly weak fluctuating state. I expect the price to fluctuate between 1040 and 1070. Upper resistance at 1090 and 1100; Lower support at 1035, 1024, and 1004.
At 2 AM, it is highly likely that Powell will not cut interest rates.
Not cutting rates is the high probability, while a rate cut would be a significant surprise. Focus on Powell's live speech after 2:30.
Today, the Bank of Japan has already cut the reserve requirement and interest rates, now we are watching the U.S. Currently, the probability of the U.S. cutting rates in May and June is low, but it is higher in July. As long as Powell does not speak against expectations tonight and somewhat releases the expectation of a rate cut, the market performance should not be poor. The trend should still be a volatile upward trend. Bitcoin will face pressure when it reaches 100,000, with small support levels at 96,000, 94,000, and 93,000.