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Trump's Policy Crisis: A Triple Storm of Economy, Diplomacy, and Constitutionalism

1. Tariff Policy Triggers Economic Tsunami

The Trump administration's tariff escalation against multiple countries has triggered a chain reaction: Goldman Sachs has lowered its GDP forecast for 2025 from 2.4% to 1.7%, and inflation warnings have risen to 3%. Tariffs impact the economy through three pathways: rising prices, increasing corporate costs, and market uncertainty, with Wall Street assessing the probability of a recession at 25%-30%. Despite the White House's insistence on 'America First,' former PIMCO executive El-Erian bluntly stated: 'Recession may become the cost of controlling inflation.'

2. Diplomatic Stalemate

Middle Eastern policies continue to exacerbate contradictions: Trump issued an ultimatum to Iran's supreme leader while threatening Hamas with 'hellish consequences.' Hardliners in Iran refuse to make concessions on the nuclear program, and although the U.S. has resumed intelligence support on the Ukraine issue, allies' doubts about the policy's inconsistency have intensified. Secretary of State Rubio's public dispute with the Polish foreign minister exposed deep fractures in transatlantic relations.

3. Military Strategic Shift Triggers Ally Panic

The U.S. announced the withdrawal of 35,000 troops from Germany and stopped participating in European military exercises, a move described by German media as 'the largest defense rift since the Cold War.' Although the Pentagon emphasizes 'global military realignment,' data from Swedish think tanks shows that Europe remains deeply dependent on the U.S. defense system, and the actual effects of the strategic shift are full of unknowns.

4. Domestic Political Purge and Economic Policy Struggle

The federal agency purge continues to escalate: the education and foreign affairs departments have cut 30% of their workforce, affecting over 30,000 people. The 'Department of Government Efficiency' led by Musk exposed billions of dollars in fraudulent contracts, raising concerns within the Republican Party about 'overly aggressive layoffs.' In economic policy, Trump insists on implementing a synchronized tax rate policy on April 2, criticized as 'a dangerous experiment in cost-shifting.'

5. Governance Crisis Looms

A combination of policies has triggered multiple backlashes: the NASDAQ index plunged 4% in a single day, both Iran and Ukraine questioned the sincerity of negotiations, and former Lehman trader McDonald warned, 'the government needs a recession to reduce inflation.' Faced with a chorus of criticism, Trump's social media proclaimed, 'America is reclaiming its wealth,' but whether his policies will be effective may determine the critical direction of the U.S. in 2025.

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