北辰BTC

Trading is a challenging activity that requires a combination of knowledge, discipline, and mental fortitude. Here are some common trading insights applicable to markets such as stocks, forex, and cryptocurrencies for your reference:

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### **1. Risk Management is Core**
- **Never bet all your funds**: Control the risk of a single trade within 1% to 5% of total capital to avoid significant losses from a single mistake.
- **Set stop-loss and take-profit**: Plan your exit strategy in advance; stop-loss protects your principal, and take-profit locks in profits.
- **Risk-to-reward ratio**: Aim for at least a 1:2 risk-to-reward ratio (for example, risking 1 unit for a potential return of 2 units).

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### **2. Emotions are the Biggest Enemy**
- **Avoid greed and fear**: Greed can lead you to over-leverage, while fear can make you miss opportunities or exit positions too early.
- **Stay calm**: Market fluctuations are normal; don’t let short-term ups and downs affect your judgment.
- **Accept losses**: Losses are part of trading; the key is to reduce mistakes through discipline.

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### **3. Plan Your Trades, Trade Your Plan**
- **Develop a trading strategy**: Clearly define entry and exit conditions, and avoid trading based on gut feelings.
- **Keep a trading journal**: Review the decision-making process for each trade and analyze the reasons for successes and failures.
- **Stick to your discipline**: Even when the market is volatile, strictly follow your plan and avoid changing your mind on a whim.

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### **4. Continuous Learning and Adaptation**
- **Understand the essence of the market**: Technical analysis, fundamental analysis, and market sentiment need to be considered comprehensively.
- **Adapt to market changes**: There are no forever effective strategies; methods need to be adjusted when market styles shift.
- **Simplify tools**: Avoid over-relying on complex indicators; focus on core signals (such as trends, support and resistance, and trading volume).

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### **5. Capital and Time Management**
- **Light position trial and error**: Use small positions to verify new strategies or uncertain market conditions.
- **Diversify risks**: Avoid over-concentration in a single asset or direction.
- **Avoid frequent trading**: Overtrading increases costs and the probability of mistakes; patiently wait for high-probability opportunities.

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### **6. Common Misconceptions and Lessons**
- **Counter-trend trading**: Do not attempt to “catch a falling knife”; do not blindly bottom-fish or top-tick before a trend has clearly reversed.
- **Revenge trading**

On the daily chart, the KDJ and MACD indicators are weakening, but the bearish volume is decreasing. The lower Bollinger Band has not yet opened, which means that the short-term downside space is still limited. Currently, on the 4-hour chart, the indicators have crossed into a downtrend, but the KDJ's decline is showing signs of weakening. Although the Bollinger Bands are experiencing a resonant decline, the current lower band is closely aligned with the coin price, and the opening degree is not very pronounced. Overall, the bottom support seems to have held up against the decline, so in the short term, we should first look for a technical rebound and adjustment during the day, and operationally, we can buy on dips.

On the daily chart, the bearish momentum of KDJ and MACD is showing signs of weakening, and a green TD1 upward signal has appeared, so the short-term market is expected to climb upwards. The main operation should focus on pullbacks.
Bitcoin: Around 96300-95800, target near 98000
Ether: Around 2700-2670, target near 2800

In the short-term hourly chart of Bitcoin, the Bollinger Bands are in an opening posture, and the market is operating above the upper Bollinger Band. All moving averages are showing an upward trend, but price is facing resistance as it moves higher. The short-term trend is beginning to experience obstacles and corrections, with the current price around 97800. The short-term trend has entered a correction phase; as long as the price does not break down, the market will enter a consolidation at high levels. The strategy remains to hold short positions at high prices and long positions at low prices.
For short positions on Bitcoin, lightly short in the 98500-98000 range, target 700-1000 points, with a stop loss at 98800 and a risk of 500 points.
For the Ethereum short position: short in the 3700-2760 range, stop loss at 30 points, target 50-100 points.

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The pancake is currently following the established trend, but it is crucial to be vigilant about the following points: It is essential to ensure that it does not fall below the blue parallel channel, which is a critical support line. Once it is breached, the next key defense line will be the key ice point of 91,000 and the round figure of 90,000. If these two defense lines are also broken, the market may face the risk of a sharp decline! Stay alert.

Tonight's major non-farm payroll report is coming, and it is expected that BTC will end its downward trend and rise by 5000 points. This week, BTC has dropped over 10,000 points in a continuous 5-day decline. If such a magnitude of correction is still not enough to stabilize the bubble, then a trust crisis for BTC will arise. The long-term technical support is around 85127, so the market will gradually enter the buying pre-heating stage. In the short term, multiple indicators on the 4-hour chart are entering a bottom divergence, and bullish buying will dominate. The target for BTC is around 91900, and it can definitely go long, with a target of 97200.

On the short-term hourly chart of Bitcoin, the Bollinger Bands are in an opening position, with the market operating above the upper band. All moving averages show an upward momentum, but the price is facing upward pressure, and the short-term trend has begun to encounter resistance and pullback. Currently, the price is running around the 102000 position. The short-term trend has entered a pullback rhythm, and the focus will be on the support level around the 100000 mark. If the pullback does not break below this level, the market will enter a high-level consolidation phase. The strategy remains to maintain high shorts and low longs.
Short position on Bitcoin: Lightly short in the 103000-103500 range, targeting 500-1000 points, with a stop loss at 104700.
Short position on Ethereum: Short in the 3730-3780 range, with a stop loss of 30 points and a target of 50-100 points.

Today's analysis has been fully completed, precisely grasped

From the daily line, today KDJ and MACD golden cross resonate and rise, BOLL currency price rises to the upper track area, and then falls back, which shows that the short-term rising space is relatively closed when the upper track is not opened, so the short-term intraday estimate is still to make shock adjustments near the pressure level
Big cake: 98500-98000, target 100000 　　 　　
Auntie: 3620-3600 near the dot, target 3700 　　 　　

If the 99.4K test fails, a short-term pullback may occur. In this case, the 20-day and 60-day moving averages and 97.5K can be considered as key support targets in phases, looking for short-term entry opportunities during the pullback.
The current psychological resistance level of 100k is just ahead, and it is recommended to observe whether the lows continue to rise within a sufficient pullback area, maintaining rebound expectations. If the lows are broken, the test time for 100,000 dollars may be delayed. If the big pie stabilizes above yesterday's high of 98.5K, the bullish expectation can continue throughout the day.
​The big pie is in the range of 99700-100000, target 98200.
​The aunt is in the range of 3680-3700, target 3600.

Today, Tencent News has pushed the trend of Dabing for 25 years, indicating that Dabing will get better and better #2025有哪些关键叙事？

Although the trend has broken on the short-term chart, it is still holding the previous high. The second support of 96k is also the previous high area, and it is also an opportunity to buy at a very short-term low.

Pie is lightly positioned in the 96500-96000 range, target: 97300-97800
​Yi Tai is lightly positioned in the 3440-3420 range, target 3500-3520

From the daily chart perspective, the appearance of consecutive bullish candles signifies that the recovery action of the market has achieved a phased result, and the upward trend is still continuing to ferment, with the bullish atmosphere in the market gradually intensifying. Considering the current technical patterns and market sentiment, in terms of early positioning, we can focus on low-level opportunities for recovery.

Bitcoin retraces to around 96500-96000, target 98000-99000.
Ethereum retraces to around 3420-3390, target near 3550.

Tonight at 21:30, the initial jobless claims will be announced. Pay close attention to this data, prepare early to induce a rally, clear positions, and then come in for a sell-off.

2025 Non-Farm Payroll Schedule

From the daily chart of Bitcoin, it is currently experiencing three consecutive red candlesticks, with the price consistently above the MA60 daily moving average as previously analyzed. The short-term resistance level is seen at the MA30 daily moving average at the 9.83 line.
From the daily chart of Yitai, the price has recently stopped falling and rebounded around the 3300 line. The price is currently at the daily MA60 moving average at 3430, and we should pay attention to whether the price can break through and stabilize above the 3430 resistance level.

Morning thoughts accurately grasp 800 points

The market is under pressure and has retreated. The current price is fluctuating back and forth within a range, entering a period of consolidation. The current price is around 94500, and it is expected to further test downward in the short term. The current trend is approaching the middle track support. If the price breaks down below this, there is a risk that the market may further test the 93000 level. The overall trend of Bitcoin still maintains a wide range of fluctuations, and since there has been no breakthrough of the support and resistance levels, the operation should maintain a strategy of selling high and buying low.
For Bitcoin, try light positions in the 94800-95300 range with a target of 500-1000 points, defend at 96000, and set a stop loss of 500 points.
For Ether, try in the 3380-3410 range with a stop loss of 30 points and a target of 50-100 points.

The BTC MA60 daily moving average of 93300 serves as a key support level at present. As long as it is not completely lost, entry remains possible.
BTC around 93300, target 94200
ETH around 3320, target 3400