波段-袁煜明

On Monday, the global market emerged from the atmosphere of 'something big is coming': the dollar rose, gold and U.S. bonds peaked and then retreated, and U.S. stocks stagnated near historical highs. On the surface, the market's fluctuations are not large, but structurally it has revealed a kind of 'leak': the overall pattern is 'dollar rises, everything else falls'. This resembles a situation where everyone has 'received the news' in advance, adjusting their positions before Jackson Hole. The most anticipated event this week will be Fed Chairman Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole annual meeting on Friday; Wall Street seems to have received the news. First, the market's probability of a rate cut in September by the Fed has dropped to 80%, having reached 100% last week. Second, in the research reports we see, analysts almost all expect Powell to send out 'hawkish signals': · HSBC's view: Powell may find it difficult to say 'very dovish' things again, as there is now both inflationary pressure and a slowdown in employment, creating a sense of 'stagflation'. If he relaxes too much at this time, the risk is greater. · Bank of America's view: Powell has every reason to 'hold his ground', maintaining caution at Jackson Hole, not wanting to be held hostage by the market. · Citigroup stated that its dollar positioning indicator has shifted from slightly short to neutral, suggesting that current investors have no significant net long or short bias. The shift in Wall Street's view presents a good opportunity for Powell - even if he sends out hawkish signals, the market will not overreact - the market is beginning to accept a more 'hawkish' Fed. A more likely scenario is that the market will feedback in advance before his speech. The market is not waiting for surprises but is digesting the risk of 'possible disappointment'. From Powell’s own perspective, after such a long period of caution, it is unlikely he will make a clear statement, but the data from the labor market will indeed touch him. He is more likely to use some vague but profound expressions, allowing the market to guess for itself. For more in-depth insights on the global market, you can subscribe to (Global Market Strategy: Accurate Predictions (Sequel)), will the Chinese stock market be great again? Can gold make a comeback? Is a storm coming for the yuan? The U.S. stock market's net closing action... We write isolated news into a coherent story. It’s not a prediction, it’s a guide to action.