张竞霄

Xiao Ge's bearish outlook has once again materialized as expected. The big pie currently has over a thousand points of space, and the aunt has a space of forty points. Friends who are following can manage their exit space accordingly.

After experiencing a pullback at midnight, today's morning session welcomes a counterattack. Bitcoin peaked at around 105631, while Ethereum closely followed its leader, achieving a rebound, rising to around 2539.

From the 4-hour K-line chart perspective, although Bitcoin has shown a slight rebound, it has not effectively broken through the key resistance level of the Bollinger Bands' middle track. Technical indicators show that the Bollinger Bands are forming a clear convergence pattern, indicating that market volatility is decreasing; in the MACD indicator, the DIF line has crossed above the DEA line forming a golden cross, and green energy bars are beginning to appear, suggesting that bearish momentum is weakening. However, investors still need to closely monitor whether the MACD can form an effective golden cross below the zero axis, which would provide a more reliable confirmation signal for the rebound. Due to the weekend, current trading volume is average; if the price is to effectively break through the middle track resistance, it must be accompanied by a significant increase in trading volume, making such a breakout more credible, treating it with a buy low and sell high approach.

Bitcoin: Short near 105600-105900, short-term target 103800

Ethereum: Short near 2550, short-term target 2480

Since the morning period, Bitcoin has started to fluctuate and seek a bottom around the 106173 line. During the trading session, shorts have continued to exert pressure, and the price has shown a stepwise decline, reaching a daily low of 104290. The Ethereum market has also exhibited a weak pattern, retreating from 2582 and dropping to a low of 2486. This trend perfectly validates our high short strategy expectation proposed in the morning.

Technical analysis on the 4-hour level shows that the current market is in a weak pattern dominated by bears. From the Bollinger Bands indicator, the upper and lower bands show a clear downward divergence, with the opening range continuing to expand. The price has not only effectively broken below the critical midpoint of the Bollinger Band but also tested the lower band support, reflecting the continuous strengthening of bearish momentum. The RSI has not yet shown any significant divergence signal, and the downward trend has not fully played out.

Bitcoin: Short around 104900-105400. Short-term target 103000.

Ethereum: Short around 2550. Short-term target 2470.

The market continues to revolve around a narrow range of fluctuations, with Ethereum rising from 2508 to 2582 before facing resistance and pulling back. The overall market trend shows a pattern of first dipping and then rising.

From the current price movement, the price remains under pressure below the middle line of the Bollinger Bands and maintains a significant distance from it, indicating that the rebound momentum is clearly insufficient, and the key resistance level has not been broken. The overall pattern shows a downward fluctuation. Currently, the price is maintaining a narrow consolidation within the range of 104000-106000, with the Bollinger Bands continuing to narrow, and the price is running close to the lower band, with both the upper and lower bands moving downwards, intensifying short-term downward pressure; in the MACD indicator, the DIF and DEA lines continue to operate below the zero axis, and the negative histogram is constantly expanding, indicating that bearish momentum is still accumulating; although the KDJ indicator shows that the J line has slightly crossed above the 50 midline, the K and D lines remain in a weak zone with limited rebound strength; the RSI indicator shows that all three lines are below 50 in a weak zone, with buying power continuously weakening, and the short-term trend still leaning towards bearish. The current market lacks effective buying momentum, and considering the light trading over the weekend, the price fluctuations are limited. It is recommended to adopt a strategy of selling high and buying low within the range.

Bitcoin: Short near 105500-106000, short-term target 104000

Ethereum: Short near 2580, short-term target 2500

Today's classic V-shaped reversal pattern is presented. Bitcoin first dipped to the 102614 line during the Asian session and formed a technical rebound after falling due to news, reaching a high point of 105459. Subsequently, influenced by profit-taking, it found support at 104069 and rebounded again. When Ethereum dipped to the 2433 line in the early session, the rebound ultimately faced resistance at the 2585 line.

First order layout: After observing the 108200 level, a short position was decisively established, and it was eventually closed at 105900, capturing a 2300-point swing profit. Reverse long position: When Bitcoin retraced to 103200, a golden cross appeared on the 1-hour MACD and KDJ entered the oversold area, we established a long position. It was eventually closed at 104400, gaining a 1200-point space.

From the 4-hour candlestick analysis, the current market is overall showing a weak pattern dominated by bears. The price continues to be pressured below the middle track of the Bollinger Bands, which shows a clear downward trend, and the candlestick combination is mainly composed of bearish candles, indicating heavy selling pressure in the market. In terms of technical indicators: the Bollinger Bands are expanding, indicating that market volatility is increasing, and the current price is running close to the lower track. Only an effective breakthrough of the middle track can reverse the weak pattern; in the MACD indicator, both the DIF and DEA lines continue to run below the zero axis, with the red momentum bars continuing to grow, highlighting strong bearish momentum; although the KDJ indicator shows that K and D values have left the oversold area and J value has risen, the three lines have not stabilized above the 50 mid-axis, making the sustainability of the rebound questionable; RSI6 has entered the oversold area indicating a potential short-term rebound demand, but RSI24 has not yet confirmed a bottom formation, caution is needed for possible downward continuation. Overall, the bears dominate with multiple advantages such as price breakdown, enhanced MACD momentum, and downward opening of the Bollinger Bands, while the bulls only rely on the embryonic golden cross of KDJ and the RSI6 oversold signal to seek short-term rebound opportunities, clearly at a disadvantage in strength comparison.

Bitcoin: Short near 105500-106000, short-term target 103500

Ethereum: Short near 2560-2580, short-term target 2480

In the afternoon, Bitcoin surged from the support level of 103770, reaching a peak of 105459 before stopping. Ethereum's performance remained relatively stable, fluctuating within the range of 2490-2541, with both bulls and bears engaging in fierce competition. Looking back at the afternoon's trading strategy, we must admit that the short position layout was somewhat aggressive. The market did not experience the significant correction we anticipated, resulting in relatively limited profit potential.

Analyzing the current 4-hour candlestick trend, multiple key indicators are resonating, with the price effectively breaking below the lower Bollinger Band. Meanwhile, the Bollinger Bands are showing a funnel-shaped expansion, with the gap between the upper and lower bands continuing to widen. This technical pattern often indicates that the downward momentum is strengthening, suggesting a higher probability of trend continuation in the short term. This evening, the focus will be on short positions, while bulls should wait for the MACD histogram to narrow, the KDJ to form a golden cross, and for the price to stabilize at the lower band before participating in a rebound with light positions, setting a stop loss at 103500.

Bitcoin: Short near 105000-105500, short-term target 102500

Ethereum: Short near 2550, short-term target 2460

This morning, Bitcoin once dipped to the 102614 line before stopping, where bears encountered strong resistance and began to rebound. During the session, it reached a high of 104578. Ethereum's trend resonated with Bitcoin, finding support at the 2433 low and rebounding to the 2524 line. In the morning, Xiaoge initially suggested a bearish outlook; accompanied by news, there was a direct waterfall drop. Xiaoge timely adjusted the outlook and provided a bullish trend for a rebound correction, which was also successfully timed. Meanwhile, a long position was established at 103200, and profits were taken at 104400, securing a 1200-point gain.

The 4-hour technical analysis for Bitcoin shows that the current market is in an extremely oversold situation dominated by strong bearish forces. The market is completely controlled by bearish forces, with continuous release of downward momentum, displaying a clear one-sided downward trend. Although technical indicators have entered a severely oversold area, the expectation and appeal for a short-term rebound have significantly increased, but the current MACD indicator remains in a deep death cross state. The price has not effectively broken through resistance, and core oscillation indicators such as KDJ and RSI have not shown golden cross signals. In the afternoon, we continue to watch for bearish downward movement.

Bitcoin: Short near 104000-104500, short-term target 102000.

Ethereum: Short near 2510, short-term target 2420.

Affected by morning market news, the market has experienced a sharp decline. The price of Bitcoin hit a low of around 103150, while Ethereum also dipped to a low of around 2492. Although there were minor losses in short-term rebound operations, Xiao Ge's bearish strategy this morning has been validated, and the bearish sentiment in the market has been fully released. However, from a technical perspective, after the impact of the news is digested, the market will ultimately return to a rational trend. After the current round of deep correction is fully released, it is recommended to appropriately position for a rebound market and seize the opportunities brought by price recovery.

Bitcoin: Buy around 103500-103000 with a short-term target of 106000

Ethereum: Buy around 2500-2515 with a short-term target of 2650

From the daily technical analysis perspective, the current market trend is showing a correction. If the price effectively breaks below the key support level of 2590, it may further explore downward to seek support at the lower band. The MACD indicator shows that the DIF and DEA lines are tending to converge, with bullish momentum clearly weakening; if a death cross pattern forms, it will intensify the pullback pressure. In the KDJ indicator, the J value has entered the overbought zone, while the K value shows signs of turning downward, indicating a strong demand for technical correction. Although the RSI indicator remains above 50 in the neutral to bullish range, there is a lack of significant upward momentum to support it.

Comprehensive technical indicator analysis suggests that the short-term trend will depend on the gain or loss of the 2590 middle band support level: if the price can stabilize and rebound here, it needs to be accompanied by increased trading volume and indicator recovery in order to challenge the resistance level of 2780. In terms of operational strategy, conservative investors may wait for a clear breakout above 2700 or a drop below 2590 before taking action; aggressive traders may consider attempting short positions around 2670, with a target level below around 2550. It is essential to strictly set stop-loss orders to control risk.

The market is like a battlefield, where rises and falls are the norm. Temporary setbacks are merely new opportunities to wash away the superficial and solidify the foundation. Last night's decline has proven the strength of the bearish momentum; do not let short-term ripples shake the foundation. In the next battle, victory is ours for the taking! Forward! Last night, Bitcoin experienced a strong rebound reaching the 108398 high point but faced a strong counterattack from bears, dipping to a low of 105700. Ethereum's movement was synchronized, briefly peaking at 2769 but failing to hold, quickly dropping to a bottom of 2614, perfectly confirming Xiaoge's forward-looking bearish analysis before midnight. At the same time, a short position was set up at 108200 as a sniper point; as market sentiment shifted, it was ultimately closed at 105900, capturing a profit of 2300 points, showcasing Xiaoge's precise grasp of the market pulse.

From the 4-hour technical analysis perspective, the current price is showing a震荡下行态势, operating near the lower track of the Bollinger Bands. The Bollinger Bands show signs of narrowing, indicating that the market is about to make a directional choice. The short-term resistance level above to focus on is the middle track of the Bollinger Bands, which poses significant pressure on rebounds. In terms of technical indicators, the Bollinger Bands show that prices are continuously running close to the lower track, with the middle track showing a clear downward trend, reflecting the dominant advantage of bears. In the MACD indicator, the DIF line continues to stay below the DEA line, maintaining a death cross state, and the negative value histogram shows an expanding trend, indicating that the bearish momentum is gradually strengthening. The KDJ indicator's three lines have all entered the oversold area; although this suggests there may be a short-term technical rebound demand, considering the risk of indicator dullness, the possibility of further price declines cannot be ruled out. The overall market on the 4-hour level is under bearish control, and the current downward momentum has yet to be fully released. To achieve an effective rebound, increased trading volume is needed. In terms of operational strategy, it is recommended to mainly establish short positions on rallies, while also taking advantage of oversold rebound opportunities.

Bitcoin: Short near 106400, short-term target 104000

Ethereum: Short near 2660, short-term target 2560

The most perfect state is not to never make mistakes, but to never give up on growth. There are landscapes both before and after the mountain, and one can be free whether there is wind or not. Today's market shows a fluctuating downward pattern, with Bitcoin under pressure in the morning session, touching the support level around 106,539 before receiving buying support. During the European session, a technical rebound occurred, currently around 108,088. Ethereum's performance is weaker, testing the support area around 2,710 during the day. Although it briefly rebounded to a high point of 2,772, it failed to form an effective breakthrough and is currently maintaining a weak consolidation state. In the morning, Xiaoge provided a bearish outlook and in the evening a rebound short strategy, both accurately reaching target points. There were good short-term opportunities during the day, but we decisively entered a short position at 108,600 for Bitcoin. As the market dipped as expected, we chose to take profits around 107,200, capturing a space of 1,400 points.

From the current 4-hour level, the price has broken below the middle Bollinger Band, with the short-term trend shifting from strong to weak, showing significant pullback pressure. The narrowing of the Bollinger Band indicates a decrease in market volatility. If the price continues to be suppressed by the middle band, it will further test the lower band support. The volume-price relationship shows that during declines, trading volume increases and selling pressure strengthens, while reduced volume during rebounds reflects insufficient bullish confidence. The short-term outlook is slightly bearish, and one can consider light short positions when the price rebounds and is pressured at the middle band; if it touches the lower band and KDJ forms a golden cross, a low buy can be attempted. Pay attention to the situation of breaking key levels; if it breaks below the lower band with increased volume, one can pursue shorts, and if it strongly stands above the middle band, the outlook needs to be adjusted to bullish.

Bitcoin: Short near 108,400-108,900 with a short-term target of 107,200.

Ethereum: Short near 2,780-2,800 with a short-term target of 2,700.

6.12 Thursday Evening Bitcoin and Ethereum Market Analysis and Trading Suggestions
Bitcoin has fallen back from the high of 108,782, forming a standard downward oscillation channel. After a brief stabilization at the support level of 106,913, Ethereum weakened simultaneously, starting a pullback from the high of 2,783, with the lowest point touching the key support level of 2,718. The bearish outlook expected by Xiaoge has materialized. Based on precise technical analysis, we decisively entered a short position at 108,600. As the market fell as anticipated, we chose to take profits near 107,200, capturing a space of 1,400 points. From the 4-hour level, the market shows a short-term downward trend, forming a long body with no lower shadow, indicating that bears dominate in the short term, with obvious selling pressure. The Bollinger Bands are opening downward, indicating increased market volatility, and the downward momentum has not yet exhausted, with bearish strength still strong in the short term. The KDJ indicator has entered the oversold zone, but the D value of 30 has not synchronously reached the bottom, suggesting that there may be a certain rebound and repair demand in the short term. However, a trend reversal requires confirmation of the KDJ three-line golden cross signal. If the price rebounds to the range of 108,000 - 108,700, a light position can be attempted for short selling, with a stop-loss set above 109,000 to control risk. For aggressive investors, entering long positions requires waiting for stabilization at the support level of 106,400 and the appearance of the KDJ golden cross signal. Quick in and out, we can first look for a rebound in the evening, and then wait for an opportunity to enter short.

Bitcoin: Can short near 108,000 Short-term target 106,400

Ethereum: Can short near 2,780-2,820 Short-term target 2,680

The bearish outlook in the morning has played out as expected. Those holding short positions continue to take profits. Friends who are following should manage their exit space themselves; if you can't grasp it, feel free to message Brother Xiao privately.

The market is like a weary boxer, seemingly still fighting hard, but in reality, it has long since lost its strength. Those so-called support levels are merely the psychological barriers that investors wishfully think will hold, appearing so fragile under the heavy blows of the bears. Every slight rebound after the price touches support is like the final flicker of light from a dying patient, not only growing weaker but also shorter in duration. The step-like decline clearly depicts the process of market confidence being gradually eroded. Trading volume continues to shrink during this period, like a gradually drying river, signaling that liquidity is quietly withdrawing. Smart traders have long seen through this act. They regard every rebound as an excellent shorting opportunity. Meanwhile, those bulls hoping for a reversal are like trying to catch a falling dagger, ultimately left with nothing but scars. The cruelty of the market lies in the fact that it will not change its trajectory because of the expectations of the majority; when a trend is established, any action against it is akin to a mantis trying to stop a car. Those seemingly enticing long lower shadows on the chart are, in fact, traps carefully laid out by the major players. They create false support illusions to lure in bottom-fishing capital, then ruthlessly break through these key levels. This classic method of 'nurturing, trapping, and killing' is repeatedly staged in the capital market, yet it always manages to let greedy investors fall into the trap one after another.

Ethereum's price continues to oscillate around the 2780 level, failing to form effective support. From a technical perspective, bearish forces are tightening their grip, with prices repeatedly testing around 2850 at midnight but unable to establish a foothold. The upper pressure level of 2880 acts like a barrier, and without sufficient volume support, the probability of a breakthrough is low. From a market correlation perspective, Ethereum's movement is highly correlated with Bitcoin, which is also currently in a phase of consolidation, further limiting Ethereum's upside potential. The intraday strategy focuses on shorting on rebounds, with the opportunity to position short orders in the 2880-2840 range, targeting the lower level of 2740. If it stabilizes above 2880, a short-term long position can be captured.

6.12 Thursday Morning Bitcoin and Ethereum Market Analysis and Trading Suggestions
In the early morning, the market exhibited a typical pattern of consolidation followed by a downward trend. After completing three rounds of consolidation, Bitcoin chose to break downward in the early hours, initiating a stepwise oscillation downward, ultimately reaching a low of 108001 during the morning session. Ethereum's movement remained highly correlated with Bitcoin, but with more pronounced volatility. Under the pressure of the 2880 level, it began a downward phase, reaching a low of 2742. The bearish outlook from Xiao Ge has been validated by the market, while also aligning with trend setups. For Bitcoin: Entry Point: 109800 Take Profit Point: 108200 Profit Space: 1600 points For Ethereum: Entry Point: 2861 Take Profit Point: 2760 Profit Space: 101 points From the analysis of the 4-hour K-line chart, the current price trend shows a clear downward oscillation trend. The Bollinger Bands indicator shows that the price is testing the middle track support level. Although the K-line's body has not effectively broken below the middle track, the lower shadow line has briefly penetrated this critical position, indicating that bearish strength is gradually increasing. From a technical perspective, the Bollinger Bands are showing a contracting pattern. A careful observation of volume changes reveals that during the price test of the middle track, there has been a moderate increase in volume, indicating that there is still some downward space for the price, and a rebound is expected in the morning for a high short position.

Bitcoin: Can short near 108900-109400 Short-term target 106800

Ethereum: Can short near 2800-2830 Short-term target 2700

Loss is not the end, but the starting point of transformation. In the words of Kostolany, 'A speculator can lose 49 times in 100 trades, but as long as they are correct 51 times, they can succeed.' May you turn this moment of low into a stepping stone to reach the peak, returning to the battlefield with a stronger posture. Bitcoin started a technical correction from a high of 110256 in the morning session, stopping at the 108950 level. In the evening, influenced by the CPI data exceeding expectations, market risk preference quickly switched, pushing the price to strongly rebound to around 110350. Currently, both bulls and bears are consolidating around 109500. Ethereum oscillated down from 2834 in the morning, forming a daily low at 2753. After a rebound driven by news, it surged to a high of 2879. The bearish outlook of the day has space for profits, with the first short position set at 110100, which was closed at 109250, capturing a space of 850 points, strictly following the trading discipline of shorting at resistance levels and perfectly executing the pre-set trading plan. For short-term operations in Ethereum: The morning short at 2823 was closed for profit when the price touched the support line at 2778, gaining 45 points. In the afternoon, a second short position was entered at 2798 and closed at 2761, gaining another 37 points. During the US trading session, a short at 2775 surged unexpectedly. Although tactical replenishment was made at 2790, it ultimately exited due to the price breaking through 2860, regrettably stopping loss at 85 points.

From a technical perspective, the current market is facing multiple pressures, and the risk of short-term adjustments is accumulating. In the 4-hour trend, the momentum indicator MACD histogram continues to shrink, with the fast and slow lines about to form a death cross. The KDJ indicator shows a three-line death cross at a high position, diverging downwards, and these oscillation indicators are all sending clear signals for a correction. Observing the daily level is even more severe, as technical indicators show serious overbought signs, indicating that the market's overheating status urgently needs correction. From the Bollinger Bands indicator, the price has been running close to the upper track and has begun to fall back. The upper track pressure continues to suppress the price's upward space, and the trading volume has noticeably shrunk, showing that bullish momentum is weakening, maintaining a bearish outlook in the early morning.

Bitcoin: Short near 109600-110100, short-term target 108000

Ethereum: Short near 2870, short-term target 2760

The market shows a weak state, with the bulls' upward momentum clearly insufficient. In the evening, there were multiple attempts to break through key resistance levels, but none were able to form an effective offensive. The price repeatedly surged and then fell back, indicating a lack of market confidence. The current price can be directly shorted once, with Bitcoin looking down to 800-1500 points and Ethereum looking down to 40-80 points.

6.11 Wednesday Night Bitcoin and Ethereum Market Analysis and Trading Suggestions
In the afternoon, the weak trend from the morning continued, showing a clear downward fluctuation. Bitcoin dipped to a low around 109133, receiving brief support. Ethereum experienced a quick rebound to around 2801 before swiftly retreating, hitting a low of around 2753. Xiaoge accurately predicted the market trend again, successfully capturing good short-term space. The Bitcoin short position strategy established at the high of 110100 in the morning was closed at 109250, successfully gaining 850 points of space. For Ethereum, a decisive short position was established near 2798, ultimately closing for profit at 2761, achieving a steady gain of 37 points of space.

From the 4-hour perspective, although the current price remains above the middle band of the Bollinger Bands, the overall trend still shows signs of weakness. The Bollinger Bands channel is visibly narrowing, with the distance between the upper and lower bands continuously contracting, suggesting that the short-term market may continue to display a weak oscillating pattern. Recently, trading volume has gradually shrunk, in conjunction with the narrowing of the Bollinger Bands, indicating that the market is in a consolidation phase. Given the significant volatility expected from the CPI data to be released tonight, aggressive investors may consider placing short positions after a slight price rebound; while conservative investors are advised to wait for the data to be released, looking for high shorts in the evening.

Bitcoin: Short near 109500-109900, short-term target 107500

Ethereum: Short near 2780-2800, short-term target 2680