小蔡交易日记

Good morning! Market observation and strategy suggestions

The current small V-shaped reverse trend makes me feel that the market is dominated by contracts. The so-called "contract-dominated" means that the market is mainly driven by contract transactions, and both long and short sides are under pressure. Liquidity becomes the key. The market may tilt to which side has liquidity.

In this situation, it is necessary to be cautious when participating in the market, and it is not advisable to be too obsessed with a certain pattern. Sometimes, choosing not to participate is also a wise choice.

For experts, they may choose a strategy of long and short double eating, while novices are more likely to fall into the dilemma of long and short double cutting.

It should be pointed out that the above analysis is mainly for short-term trends. From a general perspective, the upward trend since 53486 points has been destroyed.

As for bottom-fishing, I don’t know how to do it yet, and I mainly focus on contract trading. For the spot market, I choose to let the bullet fly for a while and keep a wait-and-see attitude.
#美联储何时降息？ #超级央行周 #美国政府转移BTC $BTC $AMB $AAVE

Analysis of potential 10X coins in the next year and a half

In the cryptocurrency market, there are always some projects that attract attention because of their unique advantages or market behavior. Here is a brief analysis of several cryptocurrencies that may have the potential to grow tenfold over the next year and a half:
XRP: This project has a strong bookmaker background, obvious market operations, and has performed well in every bull market. Especially in the late stage of the main rise, its ability to pull the market is particularly outstanding.

ETC: ETC’s chips are relatively concentrated, and the banker’s influence is significant. In the cryptocurrency market, projects with bookmakers tend to attract more attention, and this is exactly the case with ETC.

OP: As a leader in second-story projects, OP has a high reputation in the market. Whenever Ethereum gains momentum, second-tier projects tend to become the focus of market speculation, and OP is no exception.

DYDX: Listed at the end of the last bull market, DYDX has not yet experienced speculation and is currently in a long-term bottom sideways state. This is similar to the market performance of People, NES and other projects, and has high potential.

FIL: FIL experienced a thousand-fold plunge in the last bull market, but it showed strong strength as the main force in every rebound. Therefore, in the next round of bull market, FIL is more likely to achieve a tenfold rebound.

DOGE: As a representative of Musk's concept, DOGE has shown strong ability to protect the market in a bear market, while it silently pulls the market in a bull market. Due to its broad mass base, it will not be difficult for DOGE to achieve tenfold growth in the next year and a half.

#美联储何时降息？ #潜力币 #热门文章
$ETC $XRP $DOGE

Altcoins worth paying attention to in August 💹💹💹

1.BONK
Bonk, as a high-profile dog-themed memecoin on the Solana blockchain, has demonstrated its extraordinary influence since 2024. After a large-scale airdrop in December 2022, Bonk quickly became popular. Its token economics are uniquely designed and include extensive burning mechanisms, thus ensuring its scarcity. Although Bonk is primarily seen as a memecoin, its community is actively working to create real utility for it through various side projects to enhance its long-term survival and development potential.

2. FLOKI
Floki, named after Elon Musk’s Shiba Inu, is active on the Ethereum and Binance Smart Chain networks. This memecoin is committed to providing real application value and stands out through projects such as Valhalla, FlokiFi, FlokiPlaces and Floki University. Floki’s community, known as Floki Vikings, is extremely active, earning the coin a prominent place in the crypto space. Cooperation with major projects such as Chainlink further enhances Floki’s credibility.

3. NOT
Notcoin originated from a popular Telegram game where users can earn rewards simply by clicking on images of golden chips. At first, Notcoin adopted the "click to make money" model, and later successfully transformed into the "explore and make money" model to encourage users to participate in diverse activities. In November 2023, Notcoin was officially launched, and the airdrop of its NOT token marked the end of the testing phase and heralded its move into exploring the wider cryptocurrency field. Currently, the token has settled on the TON blockchain and has a growing user base and active community support.
#山寨币热点 #美国政府转移BTC #超级央行周
$BONK $FLOKI $NOT

In the investment field, every market crash often breeds a good opportunity to deploy spot goods. Although the "real bottom" is elusive, it is a wise strategy to buy the bottom in batches.
So, which spot goods are worth our attention and layout? Looking back at the past, several sectors have been mentioned frequently, namely: meme sector, AI sector, chain game sector and l2 sector.

meme sector: There is no need to say too much. The market has repeatedly sent out signals of "meme bull market", and its popularity and potential are self-evident.

AI sector: In this sector, NEAR, WLD, ARKM and other currencies are worth paying attention to. Their exploration and application in the field of artificial intelligence show broad prospects.

Chain game sector: YGG, NOT and other leaders in the chain game sector have attracted the attention of many investors with their innovation and influence in the field of blockchain games.

l2 sector: LDO, ETHFI, OP and other currencies represent the power of the l2 sector. Their efforts in improving transaction efficiency and scalability have opened up new paths for the development of blockchain technology.

How would you choose among these potential sectors? Are you optimistic about the continued popularity of the meme sector, or are you more inclined to the future growth of AI, blockchain games or l2 sectors? Welcome to share your insights in the comments section and discuss new investment opportunities together!
#潜力币 #meme板块关注热点 #AI板块强势进击
$WIF $BOME $NOT

行情走势分析策略概述

当前市场态势显示，比特币与以太坊均维持于箱体区间内波动，未见显著动态，其涨跌幅大致控制在10%左右，整体市场氛围相对沉稳。值得注意的是，今日作为月底最后一天，可能会观察到收盘时的些许变动。

市场热点聚焦
核心焦点：当前市场的热点主要集中于Solana链上的meme币，而其他领域则保持相对稳定的态势。
比特币生态动态：初步由比特币生态体系内的项目引领，如ORDI与SATS，它们有望成为市场关注的焦点。
Meme板块活跃：随后，meme板块展现出活跃态势，由PEPE引领潮流，但预期涨幅最为迅猛的将是BOME与BONK等币种。

潜力与展望
比特币生态潜力：ORDI与SATS等项目有望率先吸引市场目光，为比特币生态注入新的活力，推动其活跃度上升。
Meme板块热度：meme币因其较大的波动性和独特的吸引力，历来备受关注。在市场情绪高涨之际，PEPE、BOME、BONK等币种有望实现显著涨幅。
#meme板块关注热点 #大盘走势 #美国政府转移BTC

Ambush strategies and quilted currency responses under the current market

There is a view in the market that this round of bull market only belongs to meme coins and has nothing to do with ordinary investors. However, in fact, the performance of multiple tracks such as RWA, DePIN, AI, BTCFI, ETFi, etc. is also impressive, and the increase is not inferior to meme coins. If you feel that you have missed the opportunity, perhaps you just lack the determination to cut your losses for good coins. Once you take this step, your bull market journey will truly begin. At present, the market has stabilized, providing a good opportunity for layout. All sectors have experienced a round of gains. The opportunities in the second half of the year cannot be missed. It is key to seize the layout.

For friends who have suffered losses in the currency circle, from today on, you should put past losses behind you and restart your investment journey with a new mentality. If your assets shrink from 100,000 yuan to 10,000 yuan, do not blindly pursue the return of your capital. This mentality may distort your investment decision. Instead, you should regard yourself as a new starting point with 10,000 yuan, start from scratch, and plan your investment path steadily.

Remember that successful investment depends not only on strategy and patience, but also on the right mentality and awe of risk. In particular, the meme and AI tracks, as well as the storage sector, which has performed well recently, have shown strong growth momentum. Animal-related currencies have risen rapidly and attracted attention.

From historical data, mid-term investments can basically make steady profits in quarters, while long-term investments of more than half a year are more secure. Under the general trend, as long as short-term operations are not frequent, profits can basically be achieved. At present, the market generally does not believe that it has entered a bear market, because Bitcoin and Ethereum have not yet formed a bear market pattern.

Bitcoin's daily chart shows that the market situation is not bad. However, for altcoins, this round of bull market will no longer show a comprehensive upward trend. The new bull market will be more structured, the strong will always be strong, and the weak will find it difficult to turn over. Therefore, for junk coins that have lost their value in your hands, do not hold them stubbornly. This type of currency is always in a passive state in market fluctuations, falling more and rising less. Every extreme market is a good opportunity for you to switch positions to leading assets in the value track.
#美联储何时降息？ #美国政府转移BTC #超级央行周 $BNX $TRB $ACE

August starts, July ends

However, the current trend of the crypto market has not brought optimism to people. In the early morning, the Fed's interest rate announcement remained unchanged, but the speech of the Fed Chairman was meaningful. He said: "The rate cut is getting closer, but it has not yet reached that node. The Fed will get a lot of data before the FOMC monetary policy meeting in September." However, according to CME's "Fed Watch", the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September is 90.5%, and the probability of a 50 basis point rate cut is 9.5%. By November, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut is 21.7%, the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate cut is 71.1%, and the probability of a cumulative 75 basis point rate cut is 7.2%.

Affected by this news and expectations, the three major U.S. stock indexes opened high and closed high, but the trend of the crypto market was disappointing. Bitcoin lost the support of 65,000 points, and Ethereum fell below 3,300 points. However, if you pay attention to the changes in the news, you will find that whenever Bitcoin tries to break upward, the news of Mt.Gox Bitcoin compensation will appear. In particular, the news that Biden will sell all the Bitcoin owned by the US government during his term has exacerbated market volatility. The US government's transfer of $2 billion in BTC on Monday added to market speculation.

In addition, the US election situation has changed, and Harris's polls and approval ratings are higher than Trump's. These factors have jointly led to a pullback in the crypto market. However, institutional analysts believe that such news crashes are commonplace, and the upward pattern of the crypto market in August remains unchanged.
#美联储何时降息？ #美国大选如何影响加密产业？ #超级央行周
$BTC $DOGE $SHIB

It's really sad to say! The current altcoin market is so miserable that it can't even compare to the big bear market in 2022. Do you know? In 2022, the lowest score of altcoins was only 14 points, but on July 30, the lowest score actually dropped to 12 points! This is what some people say, that the losses in the big bull market are worse than those in the big bear market!

In the future, there may be no obvious distinction between bull and bear markets. There are only one or two market conditions in a year. If it explodes for 3-4 months, you have to sell it quickly, otherwise if you forget to sell it, you will lose a lot of money again.

This market is like shuffling cards, shuffling for half a year, then rising for a few months, and then falling for a few months, and a year just passed by. This is the jungle law of the currency circle, which is so cruel that it makes people terrified!

To be honest, in the current currency circle, if you are a rookie, or if you don't like to learn and don't want to understand it in depth, it is basically impossible to make money. Unless you only play spot Bitcoin, you can barely keep a little capital.
#山寨现货布局如何布局 #超级央行周 #美联储何时降息？
$XRP $BNB $DOGE
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For the outlook of the bull market, we can refer to the trend from October last year to March this year for analysis.

Generally speaking, the start of a bull market is often marked by the strong rise of Bitcoin, and its rise is as unstoppable as a bulldozer, leaving few opportunities for investors to get on board. Even if there is a pullback, if there is no major external event interference, it is mostly a short-term pin-type decline, quickly recovering lost ground and setting a new high. At this stage, the increase in Bitcoin usually exceeds most altcoins, forming a "blood-sucking" effect, but there are still a few popular altcoins that can follow closely, such as Bitcoin ecosystem-related currencies.

Entering the second stage, after accumulating too much growth, Bitcoin will enter a sideways consolidation period to digest the profit-taking. At this time, the stage will be handed over to Ethereum, but in this round of bull market, Sola SOL has also become a role that cannot be ignored.

If Bitcoin enters a sideways trend, then ETH and SOL are expected to take turns to lead the rise and jointly drive the outbreak of altcoins. During this period, some popular altcoins are expected to complete a 5-10 times main upward wave within a month. Funds in the market sectors will rotate, and each sector is expected to usher in a considerable increase.

It is worth noting that in the local hot season, the core hype point of altcoins must be closely linked to the important narrative of the bull market, such as the SOL ecosystem, MEME and AI sectors, and the Bitcoin ecosystem.

As long as we confirm that we are currently in the process of rising in the big bull market, then the pullback is an opportunity for bulls. The most difficult period has passed, there is no need to hesitate, and we should actively seize market opportunities.
#牛市进展 #超级央行周 #美联储何时降息？
$SOL $TRB $XRP
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Recently, the surge in SOL and its wealth-creating effect in the ecosystem have attracted widespread attention, and many novice investors have asked how to participate. In this regard, I have briefly summarized a few suggestions:

First, you need to have the ability to stay up late to observe the market and be able to wait for various on-chain monitoring applications until 5 to 8 in the morning. This time period is often the key moment for the emergence of the so-called "Golden Dog" project.

Second, if your on-chain nose is keen, you can successfully capture the "Golden Dog" and get on board as soon as possible, you need to be mentally prepared to withstand the initial ups and downs of up to 50% or even more. At the same time, you also need to ensure that the selected project can stand out from the fierce competition of many tokens with the same name.

Finally, it is crucial to grasp the timing of shipment. Since the "Golden Dog" project on the SOL chain lacks a consensus basis and is mainly driven by short-term hot money, the price may rise 10 times in an instant, or it may fall 10 times quickly. Please be sure to act with caution to ensure that you make wise decisions at the right time.

#solana生态 #超级央行周 #金狗
$SOL
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BTC接下来可能的走势剧本

1.触摸高位后的调整：BTC触及7万美元后，由于市场情绪支撑不足，难以持续拉升。若强行拉升，庄家成本将过高。

2.策略性回调：预计BTC将先回调约10%，迫使部分投资者离场。随后，等待9月降息预期的“甜蜜点”。

3.时机成熟后的拉升：一旦时机成熟，BTC将迎来显著拉升，突破新高，一路攀升至8万-9万美元。年底山寨币季节可能迎来暴涨情绪。

4.8月的回调与拉升：8月BTC必将回调至某一位置后再拉升。回调过深则难以继续，但从6万拉升至8-9万也有30%以上的涨幅。

5.10月的深度回撤：10月BTC大概率会经历深度回撤。

6.11月和12月的继续拉升：11月和12月BTC将继续拉升，维持牛市态势。大选结果越焦灼，这两个月的涨幅信号可能越强。
#BTC走势预测 #美联储何时降息？ #美国大选如何影响加密产业？
$BTC $BOME $XRP
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Ten tips for the cryptocurrency circle to help you move forward steadily in the field of cryptocurrency:

1. Protect the principal and avoid blindly following: Before investing, be sure to think carefully and never blindly follow the trend. Protect the principal and always regard it as the first principle.

2. Clarify the motivation and self-examination: Before entering the cryptocurrency circle, ask yourself in depth: Why am I here? What changes can participating in the cryptocurrency circle bring to me? Only by clarifying the motivation can you go forward steadily.

3. Prepare for a rainy day and leave a way out: Whether you enter the cryptocurrency circle for employment or investment, you must prepare for the worst. Remember to find a way out before you come, in case of emergency.

4. Long-term preparation, it is more difficult to keep a business: It is easy to start a business, but it is difficult to keep a business, and it is even more difficult to develop. In the cryptocurrency circle, please be prepared for long-term struggle, and only perseverance can achieve success.

5. Look at wealth rationally: Speculating in cryptocurrencies is not a shortcut for everyone to become a billionaire. Stay rational, down-to-earth, and don't be dazzled by the fantasy of wealth.

6. Firm belief, don't change easily: If you have already entered the cryptocurrency circle, please stick to your own views and strategies, don't change easily. Only by believing in your own judgment can you go further.

7. Pay equal attention to appearance and inner qualities: The quality of a project is only an appearance, and success or failure depends more on its intrinsic value and future development. When investing, please consider the potential and prospects of the project comprehensively.

8. In-depth research and rational analysis: Before buying a project, please collect and analyze project information as much as possible. Through in-depth research and rational analysis, form your own independent judgment.

9. Calmly deal with hot spots: Short-term hot spots are often accompanied by high risks. Please keep a cool head and don't blindly chase ups and downs. Only by rational investment can you make steady profits.

10. Independent analysis, don't believe in rumors: In the face of market rumors and inflammatory remarks, please keep a clear head and make independent analysis and judgment. Don't blindly follow or believe, and stick to your investment principles.
#新手必看 #币圈生存法则 #热门话题
$BNB $XRP $FOR
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Review and analysis of the market on July 31

BTC market review:
Yesterday, BTC broke through 66,000 points on the daily line, and rebounded after hitting a low of around 65,300 in the early morning.
The current volatility is relatively small, and the market is paying attention to the support of 66,000 points and expecting higher points.
Objectively speaking, this is an obvious way of shipping. It is necessary to pay attention to whether BTC can break through 66,000 points strongly and reach the range of 64,000-64,600. The market is bearish and the trend is inevitable.

ETH market review:
ETH performed slightly stronger in the past two days, but fell directly to around 3230 in the early morning.
ETH's weakness this year is obvious, and its trend is not optimistic at present.

Today's highlights:
BTC has not completely broken through 66,000 points at the daily level, and it is expected to fall below tomorrow.
The four-hour level focuses on the support of 64,000-64,600. After breaking, pay attention to the range of 62,000-63,000.
The intraday resistance position is at 67,000 points, and the bearish correction continues.

ETH has reached its second high point on the daily level, and the market is falling, showing weakness.
The intraday resistance point is near the 3320 line, and the first support position below is near 3160.
The key daily points to watch are at 2960-3000, and the current weak performance continues.

#超级央行周 #美国政府转移BTC #BTC走势预测
$BTC $ETH $BNB
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The cognitive reconstruction of altcoin trading is as follows:

The key to altcoin trading is to understand the dynamics of Bitcoin. The price lows of BTC often foreshadow the lows of altcoins.
Therefore, bottom-fishing altcoins requires not only a basic understanding of the project, but also a close attention to the trend of BTC.

This involves two core elements: timing and coin selection.
Timing: Whether it is short-term swing operation or long-term ambush, the timing of bottom-fishing should be chosen when BTC is at a low point. Therefore, a deep understanding of BTC is indispensable.

Coin selection: When choosing altcoins, priority should be given to popular track projects with good liquidity and listed on large exchanges. These projects are preferably leaders in the altcoin track, with popular IPs and attractive hype narratives. In addition, there should also be some research on the role and influence of market makers.

#山寨现货布局如何布局 #美国政府转移BTC #超级央行周
$BOME $XRP $BTC
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就 meme 而言

猫猫狗狗动物系列还是强大

想来想去最大的本质原因是什么

猫猫狗狗动物系列 出过太多神盘了

如 MEW Mog BOME pepe 等等

动物系列神盘底蕴在这摆着

极其容易带动市场情绪 散户情绪

拿命换来的 FIGHT 干不过一只狗

不知道这只 NEIRO 能走多远
#meme板块关注热点 #美联储何时降息？ #Neiro
$BOME $PEPE $DOGE

Last night, the market hit 70,000 points and then quickly fell back. It was rumored that the US government transferred BTC worth 2 billion US dollars to a new address, which caused panic in the market. However, the US government has no intention to sell. This behavior is more regarded as a high-level turnover, aimed at accumulating momentum for subsequent increases.

The current price has a high cost of directly pulling up, so it is expected that the market will experience a small shock to eliminate some investors and create favorable conditions for subsequent pull-ups.

But there is no need to worry that the market will fall sharply to attract investors to buy. This view has been mentioned before. Therefore, there is no need to panic, and all news serves the fluctuations in the market. The bad news at the bottom is intended to scare investors because the main funds are absorbing funds; while the good news at the high point is intended to induce investors because the main funds are ready to ship.

Investors holding spot are advised to remain calm and not act rashly. The market in August is expected to perform well.

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#美国政府转移BTC #美国PCE通胀放缓 #美联储何时降息？
$BTC $BOME $ETH