孤寒老德

#比特币反弹

# Bitcoin Rebound: Market Confidence Recovery and Structural Opportunities

Due to the rising expectations of the Federal Reserve pausing interest rate hikes and continuous inflows of institutional funds into spot ETFs, Bitcoin has recently rebounded strongly from a low of $61,000, breaking through the key resistance level of $67,000. This recovery not only reflects expectations of improved macro liquidity but also highlights structural changes in the cryptocurrency market:

**Halving Cycle Effect**: After the block reward halving in April, the selling pressure from miners has weakened, coupled with a slowdown in supply growth, reinforcing the long-term bullish logic.
**Acceleration of Institutionalization**: Asset management giants like BlackRock have surpassed 300,000 holdings, and the first batch of Bitcoin spot ETFs in Hong Kong has been approved, driving compliant funds into the market.
**Technical Breakthrough Signals**: The weekly level has stabilized above the EMA30 moving average, and on-chain data shows that long-term holders account for 76%, with accumulated chips supporting the price center's upward movement.

Although geopolitical risks and regulatory uncertainties still exist, market consensus points to the possibility of a "historic upcycle in the 6-12 months post-halving." Investors need to pay attention to the 10-day moving average support and the pace of CME futures gap filling, seizing structural opportunities amid short-term volatility.

How to go up

#CynthiaLummis重提比特币法案

**Cynthia Lummis Reintroduces Bitcoin Bill: The Deep Logic Behind Policy Breakthroughs and Market Impacts**

U.S. Senator Cynthia Lummis has recently reintroduced the "Bitcoin Regulatory Framework Bill." This move is not only an upgrade from the 2023 draft but also implies a key shift in the current U.S. cryptocurrency policy game. The core of the bill revolves around **the classification of Bitcoin as an asset, tax optimization, and institutional access**, attempting to establish a unified regulatory standard at the federal level, the strategic intention behind it is worth exploring.

From a policy perspective, the bill clearly classifies Bitcoin as a "non-security commodity," which is essentially a **critical move in the battle for the definition of crypto assets**. The current jurisdictional disputes between the SEC and CFTC have led to regulatory ambiguity. If Lummis's bill passes, it will directly weaken the SEC's intervention space regarding BTC, clearing compliance hurdles for institutions like Grayscale and BlackRock. More importantly, the bill proposes a **capital gains tax exemption threshold (tax-free for transactions under $600)**, essentially attempting to anchor Bitcoin as a "daily payment tool," countering the digital dollar strategy.

At the market level, if the bill is enacted, it could trigger a triple effect: first, **reduced compliance costs for mining companies** (clarifying energy consumption disclosure standards), second, **accelerated expansion of ETFs and other derivatives** (eliminating legal risks for custodians), and third, **opening up channels for sovereign funds to enter** (such as the Norwegian Oil Fund, which requires fiat-backed assets). However, the bill still faces opposition from the Democratic Party's radical faction, especially the “anti-money laundering clause” that demands KYC for on-chain transactions to match that of the banking system, which fundamentally conflicts with Bitcoin's underlying logic.

In the long run, the Lummis bill highlights the U.S. attempt to reconstruct "regulatory discourse" in the cryptocurrency field, but whether it can balance innovation and risk control, as well as coordinate differences among states, will still test legislative wisdom. If the final compromise version is passed, it could become the world's first top-level design framework specifically for Bitcoin, injecting strong policy expectations into the crypto market in 2025.

#交易分析101
IP Coin current price **$5.12** (+6.11%), 24-hour trading volume reached **$175 million**, market enthusiasm continues to rise. Technical indicators show that the 4-hour candlestick has formed an **ascending triangle pattern**, with short-term resistance at **$7.5** (December 2024 high), but the RSI indicator is overbought (76.3), caution is needed for a pullback risk. Key support is in the **$4.8-5** range (50-day EMA coinciding with the Fibonacci 50% retracement level), if breached or if it tests **$4.2** strong support. On-chain data shows that there is a large accumulation of orders in the **$6.8-7.1** area, which may become the focal point of the bulls and bears. Current market correlation is increasing; if Bitcoin breaks through the **$90,000** psychological barrier, it may drive IP Coin to challenge new highs for the year; conversely, if the overall crypto market pulls back, IP Coin may face a **15%-20%** short-term decline. The circulating supply accounts for 25%, and future unlocking pressure may suppress the sustainability of the rise.

The price of Bitcoin ($BTC ) has shown significant fluctuations, **CME futures price** reported at $79,943.50 (+1.16%), with an intraday high of $82,495 and a low of $76,735, resulting in an amplitude of 7.29%. In the **spot market**, the BTC/UST trading pair is quoted at approximately 580,225 Chinese Yuan (-0.33%), with a 24-hour trading volume of 429.17 billion Yuan. Recently, Bitcoin experienced a **V-shaped rebound**, rising from a low of $81,500 to a high of $88,000, but failed to hold above the $90,000 mark. The current market is seesawing between bulls and bears, with analysts indicating that **$85,000-$90,000** is a key contested range; if it falls below $85,000, it may trigger greater selling pressure, while holding above could continue the bullish trend. Despite significant short-term volatility, on-chain data and mining investment indicate that the long-term fundamentals remain robust, but caution is advised due to uncertainties in macroeconomic policies and market sentiment.

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