币研老夫子

Contract Position Management Guide

When we trade contracts, if we plan to take out 30,000 USDT to play, it is best to divide this 30,000 USDT into 3 parts, with each part being 10,000 USDT. Each time we open a position, we use one of the 10,000 USDT to operate. When trading Bitcoin (BTC), do not exceed 10x leverage; when trading other altcoins, do not exceed 5x leverage.

If this 10,000 USDT incurs a loss of 1,000 USDT, then make up for the 1,000 USDT from elsewhere to ensure that the next position is still 10,000 USDT; if you make a profit of 1,000 USDT, withdraw this 1,000 USDT. Continue operating like this, and when the 30,000 USDT turns into 60,000 USDT, then increase each position to 20,000 USDT.

What are the benefits of doing this?

First, splitting positions and using low leverage can prevent exchanges from manipulating the market and losing all your money at once.

Second, it can prevent you from getting overly emotional. Even if you act impulsively, you will at most lose one-third of your position, allowing you to keep playing with the remaining funds.

Third, having fixed positions can help stabilize your mindset, whether you make a profit or incur a loss, you won’t panic too much. My own habit is to use all 10,000 USDT at once, trading one coin in a single market wave, which means fully using one-third of the funds from a position, with 5x leverage on altcoins and 10x leverage on Bitcoin.

Of course, this is because I have a good grasp of the entry points for opening positions. If everyone trades, remember to set stop losses and use low leverage to avoid liquidation. If you're tight on funds, or if you have already lost a lot or are even in debt, don’t deposit too much money at once; just deposit 1,000 - 2,000 USDT and split it into 3 parts to do it slowly.

Tips to Reduce Losses: First, never use high leverage; for altcoins, don’t exceed 5x leverage, and for Bitcoin, don’t exceed 10x leverage, as that carries significant risk. Secondly, don’t go against the trend. When the market is rising, don’t think about shorting. It’s better to miss out on profit opportunities than to guess the top or try to bottom out against the trend.

Finally, when trading, you need to have your own logic; don’t just place orders based on charts. If you feel uneasy after opening a position, it indicates that the trade was not right. Every time you make a profit, you should set aside some funds; you never know, that money might be what helps you turn things around in the end.

The rapid decline of the meme coin craze on BSC is fundamentally due to the fact that people have become disillusioned with memes. The market has formed some consensus: for example, many believe that when projects claim they want to 'build', they actually just want to pump the price to harvest profits. Those who insist on holding coins for the long term are seen as bag holders. Many in the community initially buy coins themselves and try to persuade newcomers to take over their bags. Those who call out trades often sell and run off to start the next project.

The game of passing the parcel can only continue as long as everyone is attracted by certain expectations, entering the market together to push prices higher, but now memes can no longer drive the market trends.

In contrast to Solana, where the market makers often combine price increases with narratives and invest real money, some even continue to pump prices to expand the market cap, the cost of controlling meme coins on BSC is extremely low, relying entirely on community speculation for quick cashing out, with a harvest cycle that's absurdly short. Retail investors are often trapped by continuous price declines in the secondary market, while on-chain projects frequently run off with funds, making it impossible to continue playing.

When there is a group of people in the market who can make risk-free arbitrage profits at the expense of others, this game cannot continue. Previously, VC coins were damaged by institutional overvaluation arbitrage; now memes, in an attempt to resist VC coins, have instead entered the same dead end, with many people calling out trades to pump prices before immediately selling off.

In fact, the essence of past memes was also to call out trades and harvest profits; however, during the cycle of funds flowing from VC coins to memes, new funds continually came in to mask the problems. Now, there are more arbitrageurs than new investors, and the model can naturally no longer be sustained. According to financial cycle theory, the market might turn back to VC coins, as the number of VC coins has decreased over the past two years, and the number of arbitrageurs may be even fewer than those playing with memes.

Someone asked me how to determine whether the market maker in the Solana primary market is accumulating or distributing.

In meme coin investment, determining whether the market maker is distributing or accumulating after a rise and fall is crucial. On the Solana chain, meme coins experience rapid declines in market attention; if the project team takes no action, funds will often naturally flow out.

Therefore, when a meme coin is consistently stagnant but not dropping, it does not mean that retail investors are collectively not selling; in fact, it is the market maker supporting the price.

For example, in the past few days, the most classic $Gork, Musk changed his name, but the price of $Gork did not change. Based on past experiences, when the old man changes his name, all coins related to him will rapidly plummet to zero, but $Gork is an exception. This is because the market maker has been supporting the price; in fact, there are not many retail investors holding at this price level, and the chips are basically in the hands of the market maker, who has plans for long-term operation.

However, just because the market maker accumulates at a certain price level does not mean they can maintain the price. Sometimes, after attempting to support the price, the market maker finds it difficult to sustain, allowing retail investors to sell off, and then waits for the price to drop to a lower level before re-entering to accumulate, thereby lowering costs.

As for how much the price will drop, the market maker will observe the selling behavior of retail investors during the consolidation phase. Once they find that retail investors are no longer easily selling, they will coordinate with favorable news to drive up the coin price, attracting new funds to enter and promoting a new round of market movement.

Similarly, when the market experiences a significant drop, meme coins that decline less or resist falling are worth focusing on. These coins often indicate that the market maker is still actively supporting the price. Investors can further track the market maker's address and analyze their holding costs as an important reference for whether to enter an investment.

The cryptocurrency world is like a mirror, starkly reflecting the real struggles for interests in the world. Various interest groups unabashedly form alliances, solely to compete for limited resources and funds.

The assets here may seem prosperous, but they are filled with Ponzi schemes and bubbles. The decades-long volatility cycles of financial markets can be experienced in just a few days in the cryptocurrency space. Some people talk grandly about letting retail investors become project builders, leveraging their assets for appreciation, but in the end, these retail investors and their assets are merely fuel to sustain the bubble.

Ultimately, those who get scammed in the cryptocurrency world would find it hard to escape a similar fate elsewhere. In the past, the conspiratorial tactics of cryptocurrency groups led many to misunderstand "consensus." For the cryptocurrency world to develop sustainably, it must rely on genuine consensus, creating investment assets with long-term value, which will enable it to endure round after round of market fluctuations. What constitutes true consensus?

Just look at the two communities related to #MOODENG to understand. The Ether Hippo community has maintained a market value between 20 million and 50 million USD, which is not high, but the community members are still earnestly working on construction, actively sharing and promoting, and enthusiastically engaging in charity, treating every participant equally, and collectively seeking quality projects, hoping to turn things around together.

Now look at the Hippo project on the Solana side, where the interest groups inflated the market value to an unrealistic height, attracting "strong followers" among retail investors. But once the market value dips below 100 million USD, retail investors immediately lose interest.

These operators do not consider retail investors at all; they only think about exploiting the herd mentality of retail investors to harvest profits. Thus, many scammers take advantage of the weak's desire to "follow the strong" and succeed time after time. In the cryptocurrency world, don't always expect free handouts; no one will help you unconditionally.

To gain respect and success, you must believe in your efforts because there is no free lunch here; every gain comes at a cost.

Talking to friends in traditional secondary markets about two interesting phenomena:

1. Why do U.S. stocks react quickly when taxes or interest rates are raised, while crypto assets lag behind? Because stocks have universally recognized valuation models (like discounted cash flow), when factors like tax rates and interest rates change, fund managers can instantly calculate how much stock prices should drop, and a consensus for selling forms quickly. However, crypto assets lack this unified valuation logic; for example, how a 50% increase in tariffs affects Bitcoin's price is unclear to everyone, so they can only follow the U.S. stock market, resulting in a slower reaction.

2. Why do crypto assets decline first when liquidity worsens and investors want to exit? Because fund managers believe that cryptocurrency carries much more risk than U.S. stocks, so once they sense the market is about to crash, they will definitely sell off the riskier assets first, leading to a quicker decline in crypto assets.

(In simple terms: Stocks react quickly due to a unified valuation logic, while crypto lacks logic and can only follow trends; but during a market exit, the riskier crypto assets are sold off first.)

Yesterday, BTC effectively reacted to the red line support level in the short term, attempting to break through the 105 resistance level, but the market did not sustain this momentum. Instead, there was a situation of up and down wicks at the resistance level. Currently, it has continued to retrace to the red line support level, and we are waiting for confirmation on its validity. In terms of trend, it remains bullish; whether it's a retracement to the red line support or the purple line 982 support, both are good buying points.

When I first graduated and entered the industry, the words of a big player in the A-share market completely changed my trading mindset: When stocks and the crypto market are rising sharply, it is often when everyone is arguing the most fiercely. If everyone thinks it's a 'sure win,' it actually becomes dangerous. The strategies in these two markets are quite similar; they both make money by speculating on hot topics and emotions. The A-share market has new themes, while the crypto market spins new narratives, essentially painting illusions for everyone. However, these 'illusions' come in three types:

New bottle, new wine: The best! For example, suddenly a concept emerges that no one has ever heard of; some think it’s a scam, while others see it as a golden opportunity, and no one can convince the other. Because there is no precedent, it's completely uncertain how high the price can go, and the speculation can last a long time.

New bottle, old wine: Can work, but you need to know when to take profits. Old concepts are packaged with new terminology, and at first, it can rise due to novelty, but it will soon reveal its true nature.

Old bottle, old wine: Pure deception! Taking outdated things and rebranding them to continue the scam; avoid it at all costs.

So when you encounter new hot topics, don't rush to shout 'intelligence tax.' The more controversial it is, the more likely it hides opportunities. But remember, if you want to participate, you have to be a step ahead — by the time everyone reacts, it will be time to stand guard and take over.

In the next two weeks, there will be two important conferences: one is Trump's dinner, and the other is the Bitcoin conference. Even Brother Sun has shown up in the U.S. and said, 'Something big is coming' (it feels like something significant or a big market movement is on the way). Additionally, there are several projects that are quite noteworthy, and they are expected to gradually announce their coin issuance. In the past two weeks, there was even a surge of people from the Web2 field entering the crypto space to launch meme coins, and many altcoins have been rising for 5 to 6 weeks in a row. I'm a bit scared now, so I think I'll let go of some (which means to sell off and cash out).

Recently, there haven't been many good opportunities on-chain, and many people have gone to play in the secondary market and contracts. But I need to remind everyone: if you don't have your own trading method, only know to follow others' trades, or impulsively place orders, the probability of losing money in the secondary market is even higher than on-chain! I've explored for a long time and found three super treasure foreign trading bloggers. Their YouTube videos are very practical, not just throwing out a code for you to copy, but breaking down the logic behind it and teaching you step by step how to analyze the market. I spend half an hour to an hour every day 'charging up' and truly benefit a lot! The first is
@KrownCryptoCave
, who used to be a futures trading boss. The methods he talks about for opening positions, taking profits, and setting stop-losses are all solid professional experiences. Learning from him can help you understand the strategies that short-term experts use to make decisions; his sensitivity to market changes is incredible!
@intocryptoverse
is a veteran in the crypto circle. When Bitcoin dropped to $16,000, while others were shouting to buy the dip on altcoins, he insisted on being bearish and was criticized by many. In the end, he was proven right! His market analysis is not limited to the crypto space; he also combines it with U.S. stocks and the global economy, making his judgment on market cycles extremely accurate.
@realMeetKevin
I highly recommend friends who focus on macro data to follow! Every time CPI data is released, or the Federal Reserve holds meetings (FOMC), he goes live to break it down with everyone. His main business is real estate and U.S. stocks; he studies economic reports as meticulously as examining his own accounts, which surpasses many crypto bloggers in professionalism. In short, the secondary market is even deeper; never follow trends blindly! First, find a trading method that suits you, and then lock in reliable learning channels—this is the correct way to make money!

How to determine if there are manipulators behind small-cap cryptocurrencies?

Many friends ask me, how to know if small-cap cryptocurrencies have manipulators behind them 'pumping' or 'dumping'? To understand this question, one must first clarify why manipulators like to use contracts to make money.

First, manipulators want to make money, and they need someone to oppose them. Currently, very few people are willing to directly buy those unpopular small coins. However, those who trade contracts tend to be bolder, and many like to short. Manipulators specifically target these short sellers, forcing them to buy back coins at high prices to cover their positions. As a result, the originally bearish shorts become manipulators' 'exit buyers'.

Second, trading in the contract market is more active than direct buying and selling; both buying and selling are easier.

Third, contracts can use leverage, allowing manipulators to control large trading volumes with very little money, making their profit efficiency particularly high.

Fourth, as long as manipulators control the circulating coins in the market, they can manipulate prices freely in the contract market.

For example, the sudden surge of OM coin was due to manipulators first hoarding all the coins in the market and then going long in the contract market. They then raised the coin price, completely crushing the short sellers, and used the profits to buy coins, creating a cycle that resulted in an increasing market capitalization for the coin.

Knowing this, to determine if a coin has manipulators at work, the key is to look at the open interest (OI) in the contract market. There are two specific methods:

First, look at the size of open interest. If the open interest of a small-cap coin is higher than its own market capitalization, there is definitely a manipulator or funds involved behind the scenes.

Second, keep a close eye on the changes in open interest. If there is a sudden significant increase in open interest, it is likely that manipulators are going long or short; if the open interest suddenly decreases, it may be that manipulators are closing positions. Once such situations are discovered, one might just be able to profit alongside the manipulators. Just like before with the two coins Turbo and BroccoliF3B, whenever manipulators were going long or closing positions, there would be particularly noticeable changes in open interest.

The Significant Impact of Coinbase Joining the S&P 500

On May 19, 2025, the cryptocurrency exchange platform Coinbase will join the S&P 500 index, which is a major event for the cryptocurrency industry! The S&P 500 is not an ordinary list; it selects the 500 largest publicly traded companies in the United States, representing over 80% of the total value of the U.S. stock market, and serves as an important reference for measuring stock market performance and stability.

Coinbase joining the S&P 500 will have the most direct impact of attracting a large amount of institutional funds indirectly linked to cryptocurrencies. Many funds tracking the S&P 500, such as pension funds, ETFs, and mutual funds, will have to buy Coinbase stocks. As a result, even if these funds do not directly invest in Bitcoin or Ethereum, their investment portfolios will include cryptocurrency-related assets. This may soften the traditional financial sector's stance on cryptocurrencies, leading to more research and investment, and regulators may also treat cryptocurrencies as an emerging asset class.

From the perspective of stock prices and market reactions, once the news of Coinbase joining the S&P 500 broke, its stock price surged nearly 10%. Although it stabilized somewhat afterward, it indicates that people consider this event quite significant. Bitcoin prices also rebounded, and other cryptocurrencies followed suit. Wall Street analysts are optimistic, with Oppenheimer raising the target price for Coinbase stocks, and some believe that more cryptocurrency companies will enter the S&P 500 in the future.

On the regulatory front, Coinbase has been entangled in lawsuits with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Joining the S&P 500 will enhance Coinbase's influence in policy matters, which may mean clearer regulatory rules and faster regulatory progress for the entire cryptocurrency industry in the future.

In terms of popularization, when your retirement fund, bank wealth management, and university endowments all hold Coinbase stocks, cryptocurrencies will become a common aspect of your life. People will become curious about what Coinbase is and how it operates; the more people ask, the more cryptocurrencies will be accepted by the public, which is much more effective than advertising.

Overall, Coinbase joining the S&P 500 is a turning point in the development of the cryptocurrency industry, signifying that cryptocurrencies are moving from the periphery to the mainstream, slowly integrating into the existing financial system. Although the industry still has a long way to go, this is definitely a positive signal.

Bybit exchange has a huge loophole, everyone with money in this exchange should quickly withdraw all their funds. The previous theft incident at Bybit has not been resolved, and now this has happened.

Is the French crypto circle really involved in a kidnapping den? It's only halfway through the year, and there have already been at least three kidnapping cases targeting crypto moguls and their families! At the beginning of the year, the co-founder of Ledger was kidnapped and tortured, and on May 13th, in the streets of Paris, the daughter and granddaughter of the founder of Paymium were attacked by four masked assailants. If they hadn't run fast, they would have become 'hostage plus version'. This isn't finance; it's like playing a real-life version of 'Battle Royale'!

Seeing that the situation has escalated too much to contain, the French Ministry of the Interior finally took action. Once again, they opened a VIP reporting channel for crypto moguls, and the police even had to come to their homes as 'security consultants', even teaching the police about anti-crypto money laundering knowledge on the spot—where were they before? Now, after the fact, the Minister of the Interior solemnly says they will 'strike hard', but the problem is, the grudges from those previous kidnapping cases haven't been settled yet. Can this last-minute effort really stop the next wave of kidnappers? French crypto entrepreneurs are probably scared to go out 😂: It seems the money made from crypto isn't enough to hire bodyguards!

50% of the pre-sold $mirai coins are in the hands of retail investors, and the chips are highly dispersed. The price pump will also take a few months. When Hippo issued the coins, they opened dozens of tables, and the operators could only open the suitable tables. They must first crash the price to a market value of several million, and then pump it up. Refer to $AVA, which once crashed to zero, and then in a few days, it surged directly to a market value of 400 million. The operators must hold enough chips to control the market and reduce the cost of the pump. This is what can be called a strong coin. Whether it's $PNUT or Hippo, they first crash the price to wash out retail investors before pumping it up.

Finally, someone can come out and manage this beast Milei. You really put me in a terrible situation, Milei, you truly are something! When you launched the coin, how many people believed in your nonsense, thinking it was reliable with a presidential endorsement. I acted impulsively and threw in 3 million, and what happened? After you launched the coin, you directly deleted your Twitter and ran away! And you're talking about celebrity effect? This is a joke! Celebrities leading the way to cut the leeks, who would still dare to believe? Now people on the chain are anxious, at least sixty to seventy people have directly withdrawn from the circle, everyone is scared of being deceived by you. You just slapped your butt and left, but our ordinary investors' money has all gone down the drain. I am truly disappointed with the crypto circle.

Ten Years in the Crypto World: A Transformational Turning Point
Now my daughter is learning the piano, and as I watch her play, I suddenly think back to the hard days. Ten years ago, I lived in a run-down, tiny rental room in a village in the city. The place was damp and moldy, and when I couldn't sleep at night, I would scroll through crypto forums on my phone. At that time, I never imagined that getting into crypto could completely change my life.
After graduating from university, I worked as a sales assistant in a clothing store in the county town, earning a monthly salary of 3,500 yuan. After paying rent and utilities, I still had to send 1,500 yuan home. My family's house had been leaking for many years, and my mom would call me every time urging me to save money to repair it, but with this little salary, how could I manage? Until one day, a friend from my dormitory told me her cousin bought a car by trading cryptocurrencies, and when I heard this, I felt a strong urge, thinking maybe I could give it a try too.
I gritted my teeth and invested all the money I had saved for three months into a popular altcoin at the time. Every night, after my roommate fell asleep, I would hide under the covers to check the market, my eyes turning red from lack of sleep. When I made money for the first time, my account doubled, and I quickly transferred 5,000 yuan home. When my dad received the money, he asked me over the phone if I was doing anything illegal out there. At that moment, I was uncertain too and could only stubbornly say it was nothing.
However, the good times didn't last long; the crypto market crashed, and I followed the trend and leveraged my investments. As a result, overnight, all the money in my account disappeared. Creditors came to the clothing store to collect debts, and I hid in the warehouse, afraid to go out. When I returned to my rental room, I had only a few coins left in my pocket, barely enough to eat.
In 2018, I became a moderator on a crypto forum and gradually learned about blockchain technology. At that time, everyone was selling off, and I made a decisive move to mortgage my family’s land and invested everything into a DeFi project that no one believed in. I stood at the counter in the clothing store all day and stayed up late learning to code. One day my mom called and said my brother dropped out of school to work on a construction site. I squatted at the back door of the clothing store, crying uncontrollably, my tears soaking into my dirty work clothes.
By 2021, during the bull market, my account suddenly had a lot more zeros. I immediately moved my parents into an elevator apartment in the city and paid my brother's college tuition. Now, watching my daughter play the piano in our spacious home, reflecting on the past, it feels like a dream. These ten years of struggling in the crypto world have truly transformed my life for the better.

The Solana market has been doused with a bucket of ice water by two presale projects, directly freezing it to a headache😅​
First, let's talk about $MIRAI, ridiculously opening the door for its mother:​
Presale refunds half the money, the remaining tokens are used for 15% to do LP on-chain, the team is straightforwardly hoarding for profit;​
Opening at midnight + airdrop, purely ambushing retail investors at their most vulnerable time;​
Directly cutting a 10% tax on buying and selling, harvesting retail investors even harsher than a sickle;​
The presale took away over 70,000 SOL (about 760,000 dollars), now boasting a market cap of over 10 million dollars, but in reality, it's all just hot air!​
Now looking at $WATCHCOIN, it's even more ridiculous:​
The official Twitter and big influencers hyped it up, but it opened at zero, having dropped 81% from its high, burying a bunch of late buyers;​
The presale crazily gathered over 8 million dollars, and now the market cap is over 16 million dollars, all built on the blood and sweat of retail investors?!​
The most disgusting part is the collective opportunism of Chinese KOLs! What a bunch of phonies, collecting advertising fees from the project parties and shouting randomly, using airdrops and 50% presale privileges, have their consciences been fed to dogs?! The sickles from the old web2 have all run to web3, right? The market is so lifeless today, it's all the sins of you people!🤬 (Friendly reminder: Stay away from presale projects, stay away from signal callers, retail investors' lives are worth more than SOL!)