江皓文论趋势

Bitcoin is currently continuing a震荡 pattern, with prices fluctuating in the 106,000 range. The market is displaying a standoff between bulls and bears, with upward momentum being hindered and downward space also limited. Ethereum is similarly maintaining a narrow range, with volatility significantly reduced.

From a 4-hour technical structure observation: Although both the MACD indicator and moving average system are releasing bullish signals, as the price approaches the previous high of $110,655, a key resistance level, if it fails to create an effective breakout, there is a risk of a technical pullback. Special attention should be paid to the volume situation—current trading volume data is lacking, leading to doubts about upward momentum. Additionally, if the price falls below the EMA30 support line, it may trigger a phase of deep pullback.

In the morning, it is recommended to short Bitcoin near 106500-106800 if it does not break, with a short-term target of 103500.

Ethereum: can short around 2480, with a short-term target of 2350.

In the afternoon, Haowen clearly suggested a firm bearish outlook. The afternoon rebound was obviously a temptation for high behavior, and those who followed along with this wave of short positions at 3000 points reaped substantial profits.

Observing the hourly chart level, the Bollinger Bands are showing a weak rebound pattern after converging. Although the price briefly tested upward, it continued to be restricted by the pressure of the middle band. Meanwhile, the upper band is flattening while the lower band has slightly risen, collectively limiting the effective upward space for bulls. In terms of the MACD indicator, the green momentum bars show signs of decay; however, the DIF and DEA lines have not formed a strong bullish crossover pattern. Coupled with the gradually weakening momentum from the low rebound, the sustainability of the bullish market faces challenges. On the K-line combination, after the rebound, there has been a series of star line oscillations and consolidations that failed to provide a clear breakout signal for upward attack, instead suggesting the potential for a technical pullback or a weakening trend.

In the early morning, Bitcoin is first looking for a rebound around 101000-101500 to short, aiming for 95000.

Bitcoin closed lower overnight, showing a significant rebound this morning. However, this round of rebound lacks sustainable momentum, and the market displays false upward signals, suggesting that the current bullish trend is difficult to maintain, and the high-level area may be a trap to lure buyers. Therefore, if the price faces resistance during the intraday rebound, a bearish outlook should still be maintained.

In the short term, all cycles of moving averages remain in a bearish arrangement with no signs of reversal, reflecting the weakness of the bulls and failing to provide effective support. The current recovery is merely a technical pullback within the downtrend, not a sign of trend reversal. Historical patterns show that such corrections often continue the downward trend, so the subsequent strategy should remain bearish.

In the afternoon, it is recommended to enter short positions when Bitcoin rebounds in the range of 101800-102300, with a target price set to look down to 99000. For Ethereum, when the price rebounds to the range of 2200-2250, one can set up short positions with a target price of 2150.

The early morning market revisited previous lows as expected, stabilizing and rebounding around 98000. Prices quickly surged, currently touching the 10988 line, showing a significant short-term recovery and reclaiming most of the lost ground. Our bearish rhythm judgment has been accurate, with the current price of 99489 successfully hitting the short position.

Currently, the pattern shows that Bitcoin's 4-hour chart has formed a long lower shadow bullish candle with increased volume, indicating effective support below. After a strong bullish candle in the early hours, the hourly chart has encountered resistance at the middle track and is slightly retreating, reflecting that there is still pressure above. The overall structure has not effectively broken through the middle track resistance; this round of upward movement is a technical repair, and the trend has not substantially strengthened. If it cannot stabilize within the 101300-102000 range in the future, it is expected to return to the downward channel. Ethereum's pattern is similar, with the rebound constrained by the middle track, and short-term leaning towards the upper range of the consolidation.



In the morning, after Bitcoin's rebound to 101000-101500, continue to short, looking at around 99700.

Ethereum 2200-2210 short, looking at around 2270.

The early morning was not as calm as previous weekends, but instead took a sharp turn downwards, experiencing a significant drop. Bitcoin fell sharply after reaching a rebound peak of about 103,940 on Saturday night, breaking through support and hitting a low of around 101,020 before stopping the decline. Ethereum also came under pressure, starting to decline synchronously from an intraday rebound peak of about 2,447, with the current low reaching about 2,230.

The current market shows that Bitcoin's daily chart has recorded three consecutive bearish candles, entering a phase of continuous adjustment in the short term. After breaking below last week’s low of 102,600, the downtrend has continued and deepened the downward space, while also causing the MACD indicator to form a death cross at a high position, indicating that there is still a need for adjustment in the short term. From the 4-hour chart, the middle line of the Bollinger Bands, as a key strong-weak dividing line, has been broken, and the market has entered a correction trend channel. Compared to the previous rebound's second high point of 103,900, the current level has significantly widened the distance, and the short-term is in a state of continuing weakness.
Subsequent operational suggestions should use the round number 103,000 as a defensive line. The previously broken low point area of 102,800-102,500 is expected to become a resistance zone for future rebounds. A rebound approaching this area can serve as a shorting point, aiming for further declines, and pay attention to the breakthrough situation at the lower level of 100,300.

On Sunday morning, Bitcoin can first short around 103,000-103,500, with the initial target focusing on 100,500.
Ethereum can short at 2,350, with the initial target focusing on 2,230-2,180.

After a brief consolidation, Bitcoin experienced an upward trend in the afternoon. The buying pressure was strong, and the price broke through previous resistance, reaching around 106,300. Our long position target of 105,500 at noon successfully gained over a thousand points.

From the 4-hour chart, a large bullish candle significantly broke through the upper limit of the consolidation range, breaking the recent stagnation and indicating a strong short-term buying momentum. If the price can hold above the high of this bullish candle or continue to close positively, the upward trend is likely to continue, with targets looking towards key resistance levels above. Conversely, if it falls back to the middle or lower part of the bullish candle, it indicates weakness in the upward movement and may return to consolidation or even test support.

This breakout bullish candle is the result of several days of consolidation, showing accumulated momentum. The market may experience a slight pullback before continuing the upward trend. In terms of strategy, it is recommended to look for support to go long during the pullback.

In the afternoon, Bitcoin may pull back to the range of 105,000-104,500 before continuing upward, with a target near 107,000.

In the early hours of today, the Bitcoin price dipped to around 103,800, which aligns closely with the 104,000 pullback target indicated in our previous technical analysis. Over the past 48 hours, Bitcoin has been in a range-bound consolidation pattern, and the overall market performance matches our earlier expectations.

Observing the 4-hour candlestick chart, the candlesticks show a bullish line accompanied by a significant long upper shadow. This pattern typically indicates a bullish push but with insufficient momentum, facing strong resistance. The bears have demonstrated clear suppression in the critical price area, with 103,400 being the core technical level for the current tug-of-war between bulls and bears. If the price effectively breaks below this level and closes beneath it, it could disrupt the current consolidation structure, and a valid breakdown would open up further downside potential, warranting caution for potential accelerated downside risks. Based on the current consolidation pattern and key technical levels, intraday trading suggests adopting a range trading strategy. If resistance is encountered at high levels, consider short positions when the price approaches the upper resistance level, looking for shorting opportunities in conjunction with candlestick signals.

For the afternoon, the recommendation for Bitcoin is to short on a rebound at 105000-105500, targeting around 103200!
For Ethereum: short at 2560-2580, targeting around 2420!

The price of Bitcoin fluctuated relatively limited in the early morning. The Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged, in line with market expectations, thus the impact of this decision on the market was relatively mild. The short strategy mentioned last night successfully reached the preset profit target.

On the daily chart, the K-line structure continues to reflect a range-bound characteristic, with prices consistently operating below the middle band of the Bollinger Bands. The current closing pattern of a doji candlestick suggests that the forces of bulls and bears are temporarily in a state of balance.

From the four-hour chart, after a brief upward attack in the early morning yesterday, the price entered a corrective adjustment pattern in the afternoon, with significant volatility during this period. In terms of indicators, the KDJ has returned above the oversold area after a rebound, indicating that short-term bullish momentum is accumulating; however, the MACD indicator still maintains a downward divergence, and the signs of a contraction in bearish volume are not yet obvious. In summary, the market may have slight room for a rebound in the short term.

In the morning, Bitcoin retested near 104000-104500, targeting 105800.
Ethereum can sync.

Last night's analysis suggested going short on rallies, and this morning's market plummeted to 103,337, validating the strategy.

The daily chart shows a high followed by a pullback, forming an upper shadow, indicating that the bears have interrupted the uptrend. The current market is in a wide range of fluctuations, with significant volatility; both bulls and bears have opportunities, but timing is crucial. The 4-hour chart's bearish candle has completely engulfed the previous gains, and the price has returned to the vicinity of the previous drop's starting point, likely continuing to oscillate. After a rebound and correction, Bitcoin is expected to remain under pressure, with a risk of breaking to new lows. The morning's trading advice suggests focusing on the rally and pullback trend, with rebounds presenting short opportunities.

For Bitcoin, consider shorting in the 105000-105500 range after a rebound, targeting around 103000.
For Ethereum, short in the 2520-2550 range, targeting around 2440.

Morning live trading entry near 106900 for long positions, exit at 107600, with a profit retracement of over a hundred points. Although we didn't capture a lot, our principle is to focus on stability.

Technical analysis based on the intraday trend shows that despite Bitcoin's technical recovery after a dip in the early hours, various indicators suggest that this round of increase is more likely a brief consolidation pattern within a downward process. Market characteristics indicate that while the bulls intend to push higher, their momentum has clearly weakened, and the price increase is becoming increasingly sluggish, with a significant slowdown in pace. This phenomenon of weakening momentum and price stagnation subtly reveals that selling pressure is quietly accumulating, building strength for subsequent downward movement.

On the hourly chart level, the upper Bollinger Band has formed a solid resistance area, with prices repeatedly testing this position and quickly retreating, creating a dense top resistance zone. Three consecutive attempts to break through the key resistance have all failed.

On the four-hour chart, prices are continuously operating above the lower Bollinger Band and are currently testing the mid-band's resistance effect. The moving average system shows a typical bearish arrangement, with the 5-day moving average crossing below the 10-day moving average, continuously exerting downward pressure and forming multiple resistance barriers. This indicates that the short-term rebound momentum may have been exhausted, and future trends are likely to revert to the main downward trend.

The current apparent oscillation and consolidation pattern is, in essence, a critical window period for bears to gather strength. As the balance of power gradually tilts, the market structure is accelerating towards a seller-dominated direction.

In the evening, if Bitcoin rebounds, we can short it.

After the Bitcoin market failed to break through the 109,000 line in the early morning, it was supported and pulled back to the current level. Is it exactly the same as our strategy? Seeing 108,500 can trigger buying, but there will definitely be a risk of a pullback, so don't be greedy.

In the hourly technical analysis, the price is running in the upper band area of the Bollinger Bands. After touching the middle band, which is a key support level, it has shown a strong rebound, forming an engulfing pattern. The significant increase in trading volume at the bottom further confirms the strengthening signal of the bullish trend.

Looking at the four-hour chart, the three bands of the Bollinger Bands show a continuous expansion trend, and market volatility has obviously increased. In terms of technical indicators, the MACD has formed a golden cross above the zero axis, and the RSI indicator is maintaining strong performance in the overbought area. These signals together indicate that the current market is in the main upward wave phase, with ample bullish momentum. It is recommended to focus on potential entry opportunities when the price pulls back to the middle band of the Bollinger Bands.

In the morning, Bitcoin pulled back near 107,000, and the target is 109,500.

After a significant stretch of the afternoon pancake without a clear pullback, we directly entered a long position at 106400, continuing to look for extension, and once again rose at midnight to capture over a thousand points of space.

From a technical indicator perspective, Bitcoin's moving average system shows a bullish pattern: MA7 and MA30 are in a bullish arrangement, with the current price stabilizing above, indicating a positive short-term trend. The EMA indicator also confirms this trend, with EMA7 significantly above EMA30 and at a moderate distance from the current price, showing clear support effects. Overall, the market's short-term trend leans strong, but caution is needed for potential pullback risks.

At midnight, it is recommended to continue long positions near the 106500 pullback for a target of 108500.

Morning thoughts suggest that everyone pay attention to the breakthrough of 106000. If it stabilizes, we directly look at the vicinity of 107000. In the afternoon, as expected, we welcomed the breakthrough, reaching a maximum near 106800. We took profit directly at 106700, focusing on stability.

The four-hour chart analysis shows that Bitcoin's current short-term trend is still bullish, with good support from moving averages, and a MACD golden cross imminent, with funds flowing in. However, the KDJ overbought signal indicates a potential short-term pullback risk. As long as the pullback does not break 105500, the bulls are likely to maintain a fluctuating upward trend.

In the afternoon, Bitcoin is suggested to pull back near 106000 and continue to look upward, with a target of 108500.

Recently, Bitcoin has shown a slight rebound, but overall it remains in a volatile pattern, with both bulls and bears competing. We have also taken advantage of multiple entry opportunities to achieve considerable gains.

In terms of indicators, the short-term moving averages MA7 and EMA7 are providing support around 105400, with some buying pressure still present in the short term. The medium to long-term moving averages MA30 and EMA30 are above 106000, creating resistance. If it cannot break through, it may continue to fluctuate or pull back.

In the morning, Bitcoin is also focusing on the short-term resistance levels of 106000-106200. If it stabilizes, it can continue to hold out for 107000; if pressured, consider reversing.

Evening Bitcoin suggests we first look at the upper resistance level of 106000. If it does not break, it will still experience fluctuations and retracement.

After the evening market rose to around 105400, it faced pressure and fell back, touching a low of 104000 before stopping. We immediately followed up with long positions in the live market, and by midnight, it rebounded as expected, gaining over a thousand points of space.

Moving forward, still pay attention to the one-hour resistance level of 106000. If it does not stabilize, it will continue to retrace; if it stabilizes, it will push towards 108000.

After the early morning pancake callback to around 106800, it immediately rebounded and surged to 108300. At this time, the market was filled with voices chasing high prices, but our opinion remains firmly in favor of seeing a pullback. Sure enough, the pullback provided over 6000 points of space to follow up and directly profit.

Technical analysis shows that Bitcoin has been continuously weakening over multiple periods. The daily chart has consecutively broken below the support of the 5-day and 10-day moving averages, and the MACD dual lines continue to operate below the zero axis, clearly indicating a market pattern dominated by bears. The 4-hour level is likewise under pressure, with prices constrained by the short-term moving average system, and the MACD remains in the negative zone. Although the RSI indicates that the market has entered an oversold area, suggesting a potential rebound, the overall technical formation still leans bearish. Overall, Bitcoin is expected to maintain a corrective stance in the short term, but under the pressure of being oversold, the risk of a technical rebound cannot be ignored.

Key resistance levels to watch above are 106000 and support below is at 102000.
In the afternoon, a rebound near 10400_104500 can be used to plan the strategy.

During the early hours, influenced by Trump's remarks, Bitcoin experienced significant volatility. The market initially rose sharply, reaching a high of 88,500 before quickly retreating, with a low of 82,300.

From a technical perspective, the 4-hour candlestick chart shows that it has fallen below the middle band of the Bollinger Bands and is trending towards the lower band. Meanwhile, the KDJ indicator shows a clear downward divergence among its three lines, and the momentum is continuously shrinking, indicating that the current bearish strength still dominates. Based on the above analysis, it is recommended to short on rallies.

In the afternoon, Bitcoin rebounded around 84,000, targeting 82,000.
Ether short around 1,860, targeting the 1,750 level.

Technical analysis shows that Bitcoin's 4-hour K-line continues strongly, with consecutive bullish candles breaking through the upper Bollinger Band, highlighting strong bullish momentum and still considerable upward space. However, the rapid expansion of the Bollinger Band opening suggests increased volatility in the short term, necessitating caution against risks.

85500 has become a key watershed. If it cannot stabilize, it may retrace to the support range of 83500-84000, and may build a short-term consolidation here. It is recommended to pay close attention to the breakthrough situation of the 85500 resistance.

In terms of operations, if the price fails to stabilize at 85500, consider shorting on rallies, targeting around 84000.

The hourly trend of Bitcoin is stable. If a downward turning point appears, bullish momentum may weaken. The current price initially shows a head and shoulders top pattern, providing important guidance for the short-term trend.

It is recommended to pay attention to the key resistance level of 83500. If it cannot break through, consider shorting; conversely, if it breaks strongly, consider going long after confirming support on a pullback. The overall strategy should reference the formation of the head and shoulders top pattern.

In the afternoon, Bitcoin rebounded near 83200-84000 for shorting, with an initial target of 82000-81500.

Monday Afternoon Personal Sharing

From a technical analysis perspective, there is currently solid support in the 80000-82000 range, while the RSI indicator has entered the oversold zone, providing a technical basis for a short-term rebound. However, if the price falls below the key psychological support level of 80000 during intraday trading, it could trigger significant selling pressure, making this price range quite important.

From the candlestick pattern observation, a clear lower shadow has appeared, indicating potential rebound momentum in the market. If the rebound unfolds as expected, the price is likely to rise to the 83000-84000 range. However, as the price difference between the previous high and the moving average gradually narrows, there will be significant resistance above, and friends should be wary of potential pullback risks.

In the afternoon, it is recommended to first look for a rebound near 82600-83000 and then look down to 81000.