MNR25

#USCryptoWeek
🏛️ What is "Crypto Week"?
The House of Representatives has branded July 14–18, 2025 as “Crypto Week”, during which lawmakers plan to debate and vote on three major cryptocurrency-related bills
These $bills aim to establish clear rules for stablecoins, market structure, and block any U.S. central bank digital currency (CBDC)
📜 Bills on the Agenda
GENIUS Act (Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for U.S. Stablecoins Act)
#Passed the Senate 68–30.
⚡️Would require stablecoins to be fully backed by liquid reserves, audited, and properly disclosed
🎬If the House votes to adopt the Senate version, it goes directly to the President—potentially making it law as soon as next week
🤝Clarity Act (Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025)
🔦Seeks to resolve jurisdictional overlap between the SEC and CFTC, defining clear regulatory authority
#Passed out of relevant committees with strong bipartisan support and is expected to move to a full House vote
⚠️Anti‑CBDC Surveillance State Act
👉Intends to prohibit the Federal Reserve from issuing a U.S. CBDC, citing concerns over privacy and government control
📌Additionally, on July 16, the House Ways & Means Committee will hold hearings focused on crypto taxation, aiming to build a tax framework tailored for digital assets
🏦 Market & Industry Impact
#BTC
🏆Bitcoin recently hit new all-time highs (~$118,000+), driven largely by optimism surrounding Crypto Week
💄Broader crypto equities—Ethereum, Solana, XRP—and listed crypto companies like MicroStrategy, Riot, Hut 8, Mara—also saw sharp gains
🛢Institutional capital inflows
#Bitcoin #ETFs have surged (over $1.18 billion recently), helping fuel the rally
🌏The industry has rallied collectively through lobbying efforts, including open letters and advocacy campaigns, to press lawmakers to act swiftly
⚖️ Political Context
🏗The initiative enjoys bipartisan support, although some consumer advocates caution that the legislation may tilt in favor of industry over consumers
The Trump administration has signaled strong approval, with support for stables, executive orders banning CBDC, and a pro-crypto regulatory approach
🔍 Why It Matters?
⚡️These bills, if passed and signed, would mark the first comprehensive U.S. crypto regulatory framework—creating clarity and security for market participants
📌The GENIUS Act, in particular, could be the first standalone stablecoin law governing full-reserve requirements
📌Clear jurisdiction lines (SEC vs. CFTC) and CBDC prohibitions could reshape how crypto is regulated and adopted in national finance
📌Regulatory momentum could unlock further institutional investment and business adoption in the sector

Analysis
dormant Bitcoin whale woke up and chose violence—by spooking skittish BTC traders with an $8 billion move. The charts though? They tell a different story.
In brief
Bitcoin traders today were spooked by the mother of all mysterious Bitcoin whales.
The price of Bitcoin fell from above $109K to near $107K.
But the macro picture and technical indicators suggest the Bitcoin bull run is far from over, despite short-term price action.
War, geopolitical uncertainty, President Donald Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill"—with so much going on, what could possibly be shaking the Bitcoin market today? How about one of the biggest Bitcoin holders in history suddenly moving $8 billion from their wallet? Yikes.
The crypto community was shaken today by the movement of 80,000 BTC—worth approximately $8.6 billion at today’s prices—from wallets that had remained dormant for over 14 years. This "OG" holder, who controls the funds across eight wallets, received their coins in April and May 2011—way back when Bitcoin traded between $0.78 and $3.37. Talk about diamond hands.
The entity—whoever it, he, she, they are—had accumulated up to 200,000 BTC at one point in 2011, representing what would be $22 billion today. That puts this whale in the top five Bitcoin holders of all time, according to Coinbase Director Conor Grogan. The Coinbase exec initially speculated that the wallets could belong to an unmarked crypto exchange, then said it was more likely a very early Bitcoin miner, before landing on it possibly being the result of a hack. Oh boy.
The timing of the move, on a U.S. holiday weekend when "everyone is at the beach," has also raised eyebrows and stirred speculation across Crypto Twitter about potential market manipulation.
Needless to say, skittish Bitcoin traders didn’t like this one bit, as the price of Bitcoin fell from above $109,000 to around $107,500 following news of the OG whale’s moves. This won’t be welcomed news to the 40% of users over on Myriad, a prediction market developed by Decrypt’s parent company Dastan, who predicted the price of Bitcoin would stay above $108,000 by the end of the week. But to the 59% of bears who said Bitcoin would dip, congrats.
So where could Bitcoin go from here in the long term?
Noticed!!
Short-term traders appear to be taking profits after Bitcoin's 15% rally over the past 60 days, creating a "sell the news" dynamic. The cryptocurrency faces immediate technical resistance at the $110,561 swing high from June 27, unable to break past the resistance of a short bearish channel that has been in play for seven weeks already.
The Average Directional Index, or ADX, which measures how strong or weak a price trend is, reads 25—sitting exactly at the threshold that typically separates choppy, directionless markets from trending ones. Think of ADX as a trend strength meter: below 25 means weak or no trend, above 25 indicates a trend is developing, and above 40 signals a very strong trend.
The Exponential Moving Averages, or EMAs, also tell a bullish story despite recent weakness. EMAs usually behave like dynamic support and resistance levels that give more weight to recent prices. The 50-period EMA (the faster-moving average, measuring the average price of the last 50 weeks) sits at $87,394, while the 200-period EMA (the slower, more significant one) is way down at $56,114. When price trades above both EMAs and they're rising, it confirms an uptrend. Bitcoin remains well above both, maintaining its long-term bullish structure.
The Relative Strength Index, or RSI, currently reads 62. RSI measures momentum by comparing recent gains to recent losses on a scale of 0-100. Readings above 70 suggest the asset might be moving up too fast (overbought), while below 30 indicates it might be oversold. At 62, Bitcoin shows moderate upward momentum with room to run higher before becoming overheated.
The Squeeze Momentum Indicator shows there is still a solid bullish trend in play. This indicator identifies when volatility is expanding after being compressed—like a spring being released. When the squeeze is "off," it means volatility is increasing, and the green signal suggests the likely direction is upward.
In other words, indicators show that, for now, position traders and hodlers are still bullish, despite the current bearish mood among short-term traders.
Key Bitcoin Levels to Watch:
Resistance: $110,000 (recent rejection point), $115,000 (psychological level)
Support: $105,000 (immediate), $100,000 (major psychological), $87,394 (50-week EMA)

#PancakeSwap, Pump.fun help push DeFi fees to 2025 highs as onchain activity regains momentum
Quick Take
Major protocols like PancakeSwap have emerged as fee-generating leaders, accumulating $275 million in fees through their automated market-making services and yield farming mechanisms.
The following is excerpted from The Block’s Data and Insights newsletter.
Monthly DeFi fees have demonstrated resilience, climbing to approximately $577 million in recent months, representing a notable recovery from the April low of $366 million.
This 58% increase signals renewed activity across decentralized finance protocols as market participants gravitate toward onchain financial services. The fee surge coincides with increased transaction volumes and the maturation of DeFi protocols that have proven their sustainability through various market cycles
Major protocols like PancakeSwap have emerged as fee-generating leaders, accumulating $275 million in fees through their automated market-making services and yield farming mechanisms. DeFi platforms offer competitive advantages through peer-to-peer transactions that eliminate traditional intermediaries, often resulting in lower costs compared to conventional banking fees.
Protocol business models have evolved to capture value through diverse fee structures across lending, trading, and staking services. PancakeSwap generates revenue through trading fees (typically 0.17% to 0.25% per swap), farm and pool fees, and lottery mechanisms, while Uniswap operates on a 0.3% standard trading fee that gets distributed to liquidity providers. Lending protocols like Aave and MakerDAO collect fees through interest rate spreads and liquidation penalties, creating sustainable revenue streams that have supported billions in total value locked.
The competitive landscape has intensified as protocols optimize for fee generation while maintaining user adoption. Pump.fun's prominence in the fee charts reflects the memecoin trading boom, where transaction frequency drives revenue despite lower individual transaction values. This shift toward decentralized fee collection models suggests protocols are finding sustainable paths to monetization without relying on traditional banking intermediaries.

Here’s a comprehensive report on the June 2025 Nonfarm Payrolls (#NFP watch) and its immediate market and policy implications.
🧮 Headline Figures – June 2025
>>Nonfarm Payrolls: +147,000 jobs (consensus was ~110,000)
>>Unemployment Rate, Fell to 4.1%, down from 4.2%, helped by a 130,000 drop in labor force participation
>>Average Hourly Earnings: +0.2% month‑on‑month (missed 0.3% forecast); +3.7% year‑on‑year (below 3.9%)
>>Labor market remains resilient, though tapering wage growth eases heat on Fed.

🔍 What This Means
>>Fed policy: Slower wage growth gives Fed room for potential easing without stoking overheating
>>FX & markets: USD saw modest gains; strong labor data typically supports dollar and bond yields, while gold and risk assets may see pressure

💡 Market Implications
>>Stronger than expected: >160k jobs + steady wages → USD rally, yields higher, equity volatility, gold bears retreat.
>>Weaker than forecast: <100k jobs or slower wages → dovish Fed bets rise, USD weakens, gold & bonds gain

💵 Market Reactions:
>>Interest Rates: The strong headline job number has effectively ruled out a July Fed rate cut. CME FedWatch pegged probability of a July cut at just ~5% after the release, down sharply from ~25%
>>Treasury Yields: The two-year yield rose to ~3.90% amid diminishing hopes of imminent rate cuts
>>Stock Market: U.S. equities climbed—with S&P 500 hitting record highs—as markets absorbed mixed signals (strong headline vs private‑sector softness)
>>Dollar & Gold: The U.S. dollar strengthened; gold and other yield‑sensitive assets saw pressure as rate-hike speculation rose

⏭️ What to Watch in July
>>Consensus for July NFP: ~110,000 jobs (range: 50k–160k); unemployment expected to tick up to ~4.3 %
>>Wage growth: Forecast ~+0.3 % MoM; tracking whether cooling continues
>>Leading indicators: Watch ADP private-sector reports (June saw a drop of ~33k, season’s low), ISM surveys, and jobless claims

📊 Deeper Insights:
>>Private Sector Slump: Only ~74,000 of the 147,000 jobs were in the private sector—the lowest private gain since October 2024. Manufacturing, wholesale, and professional services saw declines
>>Government-Education Surge: Roughly 73,000 of the jobs came from public education—40,000 in state and 23,000 in local education—likely due to seasonal hires
>>Hours Worked Down: The average workweek decreased slightly to 34.2 hours, signaling softening demand for labor

🏦 Fed Outlook & Economic Narrative:
>>Federal Reserve remains cautious. The lackluster wage growth eases immediate inflation fears, but labor strength and persistent private‑sector weaknesses complicate their decision-making
>>Underlying Weakness: Analysts note that without public‑sector boosts, private hiring is subdued—highlighting ongoing economic headwinds including tariffs and business uncertainty

🔍 Trader Insights:
>>Breakeven Growth Rate St. Louis Fed estimates about 153k jobs/month are needed to maintain stable unemployment. With 147k below that threshold, markets interpret this as a sign of softening demand
>>Key Variables to Watch >>> Participation rate, wage growth, and private‑sector job momentum. These have more policy relevance than the headline number alone
>>Volatility Risk >>> FX, treasury markets, and equity indices often experience sharp swings around NFP release. Traders are advised to employ risk management such as tight stops and controlled position sizes

📌 Bottom Line..
Objective is heading To effectively prepare for, analyze, and react to the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) release, with the goal of identifying market-moving insights and trading/investment opportunities

🗓️ 1. Pre-NFP Prep (2–5 Days Before Release)
A. Understand the expectations!! Review economists’ forecasts (e.g., Bloomberg, Reuters, Investing.com)
🔦Track:
>> NFP consensus estimate
>>Unemployment rate
>>Average hourly earnings

B. Review Leading Indicators
⚠️Check these reports for hints on the NFP outcome:
>>ADP Employment Report
>>Initial jobless claims
>>ISM Manufacturing & Services Employment indices
>>JOLTS Job Openings
>>Challenger Job Cuts report

C. Market Sentiment Analysis:
>>Track bond yields, USD index (DXY), and equity futures
>>Review positioning in futures/options (e.g., CFTC data)
>>Read sentiment from macro analysts or news feeds (e.g., Twitter, FinTwit, Substack)

⏰ 2. NFP Day – Live Watch Plan:
>> Release Timing 8:30 AM ET (1st Friday of every month)
>>Real-Time Reaction Checklist
>>Headline NFP number vs. forecast
>>Unemployment rate
>>Average hourly earnings (MoM & YoY)
>>Revisions to prior months

🧠 Trading Strategy
>>Prepare scenarios: map out market moves for beats, misses, and inline outcomes.
>>Focus beyond headline: unemployment rate, wage gains, underemployment (U‑6), participation rate offer better Fed insight
>>Risk control: volatility is high—use tight stops and proper sizing
>>Cross-asset plays: strong NFP often boosts crude oil, equities, and beats gold; weak data favours safe havens

💄Immediate Market Reaction Watch:
>>USD pairs (especially EUR/USD, USD/JPY)
>>Gold (XAU/USD)
>>S&P 500, Nasdaq
>>Bond yields (especially 2Y and 10Y Treasuries)

🎬Use fast data sources:
>>Bloomberg Terminal, TradingView, ZeroHedge, ForexLive, Twitter/X (tag: #NFP)

🔚 Summary
June’s NFP showed steady job growth but cooling wage gains—an encouraging mix for the Fed to consider easing. July’s report (due Fri, Aug 1 ET) will be key for wage dynamics and employment trends that could shape Fed timing and market volatility