分析师兰迪

8.1 Morning Cryptocurrency Market Update | Bearish Plunge + Technical Rebound, Is Bitcoin and Ethereum About to Bounce Back?

Brothers, Trump stirred up trouble again last night—imposing tariffs of 15% to 41% on 67 countries, originally set to take effect on August 1, now delayed to August 7. This leaves a window for negotiations, but market sentiment has already collapsed.

Bitcoin has followed the trend down to our expected level, touching a low of 115,000, with the monthly line just closing red. The technical factors combined with the bearish news have substantial impact. Fortunately, the bottom support on the four-hour chart remains, the TD13 has shown a reversal signal, and both RSI and KDJ are oversold, indicating conditions for a rebound.

The short-term strategy is clear: you can lightly go long near 115K, looking at the 117K resistance level. If it doesn't hold, consider reversing to short.

Ethereum is moving in tandem with Bitcoin, with six consecutive red candles on the four-hour chart. The last candlestick has a long lower shadow, accompanied by indicators showing signs of a bottom. In the short term, it is expected to follow a rebound. However, be cautious as Ethereum's volatility is greater than Bitcoin's, and risk management is crucial. 3704 is not an absolute bottom; if it breaks 3660, you must stop loss.

Overall, this wave of decline is mainly influenced by macro news, rather than on-chain funds or institutional actions. The medium to long term outlook remains bullish, while the short-term focus should be on whether Bitcoin can stabilize at the key level of 115K.

The market changes rapidly, keep pace with the operations, and don't let emotions dictate your actions. The next opportunity is hidden in this wave of adjustment.

$BTC $ETH
#加密市场回调 #美国初请失业金人数

Tonight's market for $ETH can be described as a 'life-and-death battle' between bulls and bears. The 3820 position has become the most critical battleground at the moment.

From the market perspective, ETH is currently approaching the 3820 resistance level, seemingly just a step away, but the underlying capital movements are filled with intrigue: a certain whale is using 20x leverage to short 20,000 ETH, currently realizing a floating profit of 1.12 million, and the bearish sentiment is strong; on the other hand, Grayscale saw a significant outflow of 11,000 ETH yesterday, while BlackRock has turned to increase its BTC holdings—this 'rise and fall' of capital flow is releasing a clear signal of diversion, casting a shadow over ETH's breakthrough path.

Further breaking down the technical details:
- If it can strongly hold above 3820, it means the bulls have successfully broken through the resistance, and the subsequent rebound space is expected to open up, with the first target looking at 3930, and even the possibility of hitting the 4000 USD integer level;
- However, the support level at 3736 must be closely monitored, as this is the 'lifeline' for the bulls. If it is lost, the pressure for a pullback will instantly amplify, and if it can retrace to the 3500-3600 range, it may instead present an opportunity worth seizing—this range is not only a strong support area validated multiple times previously but also a key area for the reshuffling of bullish and bearish forces, providing better value for money.

In fact, the game in the cryptocurrency circle has always been a 'big fish eating small fish' scenario. Many people want to catch the bottom when they see a price pullback, without realizing they might be stepping into a trap set by the whales—what you think is the 'floor price' may just be the 'cutting position' for them to offload. To avoid the sickle, one must understand the actions of the main players: the leverage movements of the whales, the capital flows of institutions, and the bullish-bearish struggles at key points—these are the core elements for judging the market.

Tonight's battle will directly influence the short-term trend for ETH, whether holding positions or observing, one must closely monitor the offensive and defensive dynamics in the 3820-3736 range, and not let emotions skew judgment.

$ETH #上市公司加密储备战略 #BNB创新高

$BTC Is it about to explode? The key level has been broken, 120,000 is just within reach!

Still worried about the fluctuations? Bitcoin has just strongly broken through the key level of 118,515 USD, stabilizing here means 120,000 is just around the corner.

The trading signals are clear:
- If it breaks 119,561 with volume and confirms the close, short with the trend, stop loss if it breaks;
- If it breaks down through 118,982 with volume, and fails to stabilize on the rebound, directly short on the right side, exit if it recovers;
- If 118,515 shows a false breakdown, decisively try long, stop loss below the false break low or 117,763, don't hold if it fails to stabilize.

In the short term, the bulls are dominant: if it stabilizes above 119,513 on the hourly chart, look directly at 120,576-121,191. The conservative traders can wait to buy at 116,578, exit if it breaks 115,786.

The mid-term is even more critical: the 2-hour box's midline has been broken, if it doesn't break on the pullback, it will directly rush to the upper bound of the box; if it loses the midline, a range-bound fluctuation is very likely, but as long as it doesn't break 117,271, the bullish momentum remains.

The key level has been broken, momentum is full, keep an eye on the support and don't get distracted—120,000 may come faster than you think!

$BTC
#美国与欧盟达成关税协议 #巨鲸动向

$ETH Spiked to 3900! This is the first time since February to reach this price level, just a step away from the 4000 mark!

The technical aspect has directly formed an upward channel, the trend is as stable as if nailed to the board. Want to wait for a pullback to enter? There may not be that much time for you to hesitate.

Even more explosive is the news aspect—Cathie Wood from Ark Invest confirmed her deep involvement in the ETH Foundation's operations, and this institutional endorsement has directly pushed the positive sentiment to the max.

In terms of operations, don't make it a multiple-choice question:
- If it pulls back to 3890, go long directly, set the stop loss at 3841, and initially aim for 3946;
- If it breaks through the upper boundary of the channel, decisively chase the long position, set the stop loss at 3890, and target the 4000 mark.

With the project team taking action + technical breakouts, the probability of success for going long is visibly high, don't miss the main upward wave rhythm!

#ETH重返3800 #美国与欧盟达成关税协议 #山寨季來了？

The market for $ETH has become quite interesting recently—positive news is piling up like a snowball, while on the technical side, frequent 'retreat signals' are being released, creating a dizzying tug-of-war.

The core contradiction is clear: on one side is the continuous fermentation of positive expectations, and on the other side is the adjustment pressure from the short-term technicals. The current key battleground is stuck at the $3700 mark. This position is not just an ordinary support level, but a 'minefield' where long positions are clustered—once it breaks, a chain reaction of liquidations could directly smash the price down to $3600; conversely, $3800 is like a wall built by short positions, making it quite difficult to break through.

Want to break the deadlock? You need to watch two hard indicators: first, trading volume must break through the 5 billion level, and second, the RSI indicator must steadily return above 50. Only when these two signals appear simultaneously can it be considered a pass for the bulls to charge. By then, the liquidation price of the short positions piled up above $4000 is likely to become the main target for the bulls, as turning the stop-loss points of opponents into profit points for oneself has always been a common practice in the market.

The current market is essentially a struggle between 'upgraded positives' and 'technical adjustments'. Regarding the upcoming trend, my judgment is: if $3700 can hold this week, coupled with the catalyst of the Pectra upgrade, the probability of hitting $4000 in August will significantly increase; conversely, if it cannot hold, a second dip to $3600 may be difficult to avoid.

In terms of operations, spot trading can consider gradually positioning around $3700, while contracts are recommended to try small long positions below $3750, while closely monitoring the key nodes before the Pectra upgrade, with targets like Lido and Rocket Pool deserving special attention. Additionally, several risk points need to be wary during the day: changes in the SEC's attitude towards ETFs, whether the upgrade will be delayed, and whether geopolitical conflicts will escalate, as these could trigger short-term volatility.

Overall, now is not a time for panic, but a key stage to see clearly the battlefield situation and find the right entry timing. The positives are still there, but it requires a bit of patience to wait for the technicals to catch up.

$ETH
#以太坊交易量反超比特币 #RWA热潮 #巨鲸动向

Brothers, is everyone panicking about this big drop in the market: Is a black swan event coming to the crypto world?

I believe everyone has sensed it; the market just warmed up a few days ago, and now it's pulling back sharply again. The Bitcoin ETF has seen a net outflow for three days, so altcoins are suffering even more.

But from a long-term perspective, expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates are rising, with predictions of at least a 76 basis point aggressive cut next year.

Powell's successor will definitely listen to Trump; current inflation data doesn't really matter, if the king wants to cut rates, then it has to happen.

Yesterday's pullback was not a peak at all; it was just a market reaction to Trump's news that caused the decline.

In fact, the more we see this kind of dip, the better opportunity we have to position ourselves in strong coins.

If it doesn’t drop, we wouldn’t dare to enter the market. Here are some recommendations: mainstream looking at $SOL [at least seeing 230-250], altcoins choosing UNI, $ONDO $DOGE .

I am already looking for suitable positions and notifying fans to enter the market one after another. This is an excellent bottom-fishing opportunity; interested parties, call me.

#以太坊交易量反超比特币 #山寨季來了？ #稳定币监管风暴

#SOL生态 hides a tough character——$FARTCOIN , with AI+MEME double buffs fully stacked, worth keeping a close eye on!

Institutions and capital have quietly laid out their plans: AI16z entered early with holdings, Sigil Fund has also heavily invested, even the market maker giant Wintermute has listed it as a core allocation, isn't that impressive?

With the strong control of the stock by the major players, we are just waiting for SOL to stabilize above 200 dollars—once that happens, it is very likely to lead the charge and set the pace for the rally.

Looking at the K-line, it has already entered an upward trend. In the short term, we are watching if it can hold at 1.7 dollars; if it breaks through, there will be new space. The technical aspect is also interesting: the hourly MACD has crossed bearish for a pullback, but the daily bars are still expanding, and the medium-term trend is not bad.

For spot trading, I suggest lightly entering at the current price to set up a position, and I will keep a close eye on the replenishment points to notify you. The target is not high, looking at 2-3 dollars first, which offers good value.

For those who want to catch the specific rhythm, comment 1 in the comment section, and I will remind you at the right time~

$SOL $FARTCOIN
#BNB创新高 #NFT板块领涨 #山寨季來了？

$FORM This thing, old players might know — it’s just BNX changing its disguise.

Recently, #BNB made a move, and the entire ecosystem has been uplifted, with day traders focusing on THE BAKE LISTA within the BNB ecosystem.

This coin has been on Binance since it switched identities in March, and its trend has been like climbing stairs, moving up step by step.

The project team is quite the troublemaker, particularly fond of creating hype, so the price fluctuations are huge, with sharp spikes up and down — absolutely avoid the contract, it’s purely a trap.

But there’s a signal to pay attention to: for the past 4 months, on-chain funds have been quietly drilling in, and it’s not yet time for an explosion.

For spot trading, wait for a pullback to build positions in batches, and I will share specific points in real-time in the fan group.
If you want to play, don’t chase highs; it's safer to wait for a pullback before taking action.

$FORM $BNB
#BNB创新高 #NFT板块领涨 #山寨季來了？

7.21 Accurate Market Analysis 🔥🔥🔥

In the analysis over the past few days, I have divided into 4 phases
Currently, we are in the 2nd phase of a small bull market:
Continuation phase, small bull market progress is about 60%

Why has this small bull market risen? When will it end? What are the risks?

First, let's talk about the reasons for the rise—
This small bull market is not due to the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, nor is it driven by the BTC halving, but rather a policy-driven bull market in the United States!
After Trump took office, he supported cryptocurrencies through stablecoin legislation, and institutions have been continuously increasing their positions around 100,000, directly propelling this market trend.
Additionally, Trump's "Great Beautiful Plan" has damaged America's credibility, which is favorable for non-dollar assets like BTC.

Potential great opportunity:
If Trump really dismisses Powell, the global market could experience significant turbulence, and the dollar and U.S. bonds may collapse, with BTC expected to soar to $150,000!

Next, pay attention to 3 points:
(1) Patiently hold $BTC , $BNB , $SOL , etc.
(2) Don't chase after the surging altcoins; you can take profits on some waves.
(3) Don't short; be careful of market manipulation that could lead to liquidation.

During the day, Dige will continue to study the market. If there are suitable entry points, I will notify my followers immediately. If you want to keep up with A Yi's operations, feel free to contact me.

#以太坊突破3700 #稳定币监管风暴 #GENIUS稳定币法案

$ETH $3900 as a life-and-death line? Liquidation alarm sounded!

A reminder must be given to everyone: once #ETH touches $3900, the liquidation intensity of short positions on mainstream exchanges will soar to $1.562 billion—this is not an ordinary liquidation, but a warning of collective collapse of leveraged funds!

Don't get it wrong, liquidation intensity ≠ simple amount, it is more like a fuse: the higher the value, the more densely leveraged funds are piled up at this price level. Once it breaks $3900, the short stop-loss orders will be instantly triggered, and the automatic liquidation programs will frantically buy and push up the price, directly triggering a "short squeeze" death spiral!

Adding to this are positive factors like network upgrades and expectations of ETF approvals; if the resistance zone of $3900 is eaten away by trading volume, the space above $4000 will be instantly torn open.

The operational strategy is very clear:
- If $3900 is broken with volume, you can lightly follow the trend
- If the $3700 support is lost, immediately tighten stop-loss to save yourself

This wave of ETH volatility may shake the market three times! Hurry up and follow Di Ge's operational thinking!!!

$ETH
#以太坊突破3700 #NFT市场回暖 #山寨币突破

$SOL continues to be bullish, continue to layout, continue to profit

Continue to make arrangements and enter during the day, those who want to profit hurry to contact!!!

$ETH $SOL
#以太坊突破3700 #NFT市场回暖 #加密立法新纪元

Every day I open my eyes: The K-line is so green it's scary, my face is burning hot 🌚

🎧 Daily BGM of an old cryptocurrency holder:
🔊 The sound of repeatedly pressing exchange hotkeys (more intense than gaming)
🔊 The sound of a Red Bull can slamming on the table (coffee has been replaced with this)
🔊 The heartbeat of staring at contract margins (louder than liquidation warnings)

💎 Survival rules of an old holder in pixel style:
✅ Early morning strategy → Drawing on the K-line until dawn, thinking about opening up with a huge gain
✅ Stop-loss level → Set clearly, curse the market maker when the pin breaks
✅ Take-profit point → "Just wait for the new high" → Waterfall down → "Slapping my thigh until my hand hurts"

🔥 Classic sound bites:
"It's not the contract that's the problem, it's my leverage that’s set wrong!"
"I absolutely won't touch altcoins today... (scrolling to see a low-quality coin pump) Wait, this narrative seems like it can pump?"

🎯 Cryptocurrency persona test:
A. Discipline warrior → Swears to execute strategy in front of the whitepaper (immediately betrays when the market goes crazy)
B. Feeling flow player → "The MACD golden cross is winking at me"
C. Data fanatic → Checking 20 on-chain indicators, ultimately placing orders based on community sentiment
D. Zen mode → "If it goes to zero, so be it, I still have ten faith coins"

$BTC $ETH
#山寨币突破 #币安HODLer空投C #特朗普施压鲍威尔

🔥 July 18th · Crypto Circle Early Insights

Today's main stage is still $ETH , while the altcoins play a supporting role, testing the market's rhythm. Friends who missed the ETH bus should not hesitate any longer on this wealth express!

🥇 ETH: Leading the way, staking becomes more compliant

Nasdaq Proposal: iShares Ethereum Trust plans to open ETH staking, adding legal compliance, and institutions are eager to participate.

The surge is too strong: a strong break through key levels, with volume continuously expanding. Those who missed the first wave should hurry and catch up!

🥈 BTC: ETF support, 120K high volatility

Despite multiple bearish factors, ETF funds are still bottom-fishing, stabilizing at 120,000 points.

Whales are frequently “moving bricks,” short-term heart rates are accelerating, but the big coin is still “waiting for the wind to come.”

🥉 XRP: Potential stock outbreak, breaking new highs imminent

Strongly breaking through recent highs, both retail and institutional investors are focused on it.

Key point: If it stabilizes above $0.70, the next target is directly aimed at $0.80+.

🌟 SOL: Following the trend, can it stand alone?

Still following the rhythm of ETH/BTC, showing mediocre performance.

If it is to explode, it must showcase its own ace.

🚀 Additional Highlights: SharpLink Gaming's big move

Plans to issue 5 billion 🔪: pouring into ETH, continuing to ride the bullish trend.

It seems the heat in the circle is still being attracted by ETH's “money-absorbing” ability.

🧠 Summary:

ETH: Undoubtedly the main character; missing it = regret;

BTC: ETF support, stable yet variable;

XRP: New darling on the rise, worth watching;

SOL: Following and observing;

Special attention: SharpLink's significant ETH move may reignite market sentiment.

🎯 Operation Suggestions:

For those who haven't entered ETH: buy on slight pullbacks with light positions;

BTC holders: maintain at 120K, waiting for a breakout signal;

XRP enthusiasts: add positions once it stabilizes at key points;

SOL patient holders: wait for independent trends to decide;

—— Crypto Circle Early Insights, hurry and get on board, wealth waits for no one!

$BTC $ETH $XRP
#美国众议院通过三项加密货币法案 #上市公司加密储备战略 #以太坊连续两日领涨

$XRP Is this wave going to soar to new heights, or will it peak and pull back?

In the past three days, both the news and technical aspects have seen explosive growth—South Koreans have directly bought XRP, making it the 'new darling of Asia,' and institutions are flocking in!

The trading volume of XRP on Upbit exchange exceeded $650 million in 24 hours, which is 2.3 times that of Bitcoin, and the enthusiasm of Korean retail investors far surpasses that of other mainstream coins; Nasdaq has applied to include XRP in the digital asset index, and ProShares plans to launch the world's first XRP ETF on July 18.

CoinShares' XRP fund size has doubled, and traditional capital is going crazy with investments; Grayscale has also launched the first XRP trust fund in the U.S., creating a strong positive resonance from these institutional moves!

Technically, XRP has broken through the key psychological level of $3. The trading volume on the 4-hour chart is rising with the price, the MACD has shown a bullish crossover, and the RSI has broken through the overbought zone and is showing a neutral to strong bias. After the Bollinger Bands have narrowed, the price is pushing against the upper band, indicating a clear bullish trend in the short term.

Looking ahead, if the ProShares ETF is successfully launched and the Nasdaq index is approved, XRP may attract more institutional funds, pushing towards $3.6-$3.8 or even $4; however, caution is needed regarding whether Grayscale’s trust has already priced in the positive news with a scale of $250,000. If the price cannot hold above $3.2 this week, it may pull back to $2.8 for support.

Di Ge believes that XRP's short-term surge benefits from the Korean craze and institutional investments, while its long-term value depends on the ETF's implementation and continued inflow of traditional capital. It is recommended to closely monitor the market reaction after the ProShares ETF launch on July 18; if it breaks through, it could reach as high as $4, otherwise, be wary of pullback risks.

$XRP
#美国众议院通过三项加密货币法案 #山寨币突破 #上市公司加密储备战略