牧哥趋势

Choppy day, after a midday surge and rebound, there has been no significant change for the day. Bitcoin has been hovering around 113,000, with no breakouts or pullbacks, until the U.S. stock market opened in the evening, which brought a slight pullback, with a minimum around 124,400. This move has allowed us to take small profits from our short positions. The current market rhythm is a wave-like pullback; the rebound has just exceeded expectations, but it has not surpassed the previous round's turning points, so the weak structure remains unchanged, and we continue to be bearish.

From the overall structural rhythm, the market is oscillating within a limited range today. The four-hour chart has consecutive bullish candles exceeding the mid-range resistance, but there is upward pressure present. The market has provided a small bearish pullback, and there has been no immediate increase in volume, so we are waiting for a time to correct. Sudden rises and falls occur due to news events; during these calm days, we have to wait for a time cycle. We continue to be bearish through midnight.

Bitcoin is bearish around 112,800-113,000 at midnight, targeting 110,000.

Ethereum is bearish around 4,540-4,560 at midnight, targeting 4,350.

$BTC

Bitcoin's intraday price fluctuation is not large, overall oscillating around the 113,000 mark for correction. With U.S. stocks opening high at 9:30, this means a bearish sentiment in the crypto market. Wait for a price pullback to take profits; don't let slow market movements frustrate you. Patience is key to smiling until the end. Friends holding short positions should hold on patiently. Maintain defense at 113,600 and $BTC

Bitcoin is facing pressure at the hourly level, and there is a demand for a short-term pullback. Short at 113000, watch 110000, and defend at 113800 only $BTC

Bitcoin and Ethereum's pace has begun to slow down after today's rebound, and the daytime volatility is not large, without providing a breakthrough point. The short positions we provided during the day are still being held after adding to the position, waiting for the evening US stock market to open and increase in volume. There's no rush to make trades; once the direction is correct, profit is just a matter of time. Good things take time, testing our inner strength! $BTC

Exaggeration, Bitcoin's volume exceeded expectations, breaking the middle track and reaching 113,000. The altcoins are relatively stable, hovering around our entry position for adjustment. For Bitcoin, which has kept up with the current rhythm, supplementary buying can be done with a defensive stance. After all, the hourly level has already hit the upper track without a breakout signal; those who have not entered can directly short and capture the strength of the pullback! $BTC

A beautiful day starts from waking up. Bitcoin and Ethereum both delivered a downward pullback as expected. Bitcoin dropped from 112600 to the current 111000, while Ethereum retreated from 4662 to 4465. After a night, the pullback intensity is quite considerable. The short positions we arranged at midnight have all realized profits in this wave, with Bitcoin at 1500 points and Ethereum at 170 points. This is the charm of understanding the structure. Why not chase long positions during the rise? Why choose to short? This was clearly written in the midnight arrangements, and you can verify it. Today, just continue to short.

From an overall structure perspective, the four-hour wave-like pullback has just begun. Currently, the three lines are opening downwards, and there is momentum showing two consecutive bearish candles. The low point has not yet been broken, so we are far from the bottom. Additionally, the middle track resistance has been fully maintained, with no signs of a breakthrough, indicating that the market's pullback rhythm will continue. Once the trend is established, it cannot be easily changed by one or two rounds of rebounds; just go with the trend.

Bitcoin is shorting around 111600-112000 today, targeting 110000.

Ethereum is shorting around 4520-4540 today, targeting 4300$BTC .

A day quietly passes, and at midnight, looking at the overall situation, Bitcoin and Ethereum have adjusted to be predominantly bearish during the day, with no clear direction for bulls or bears. There was a pullback during the day and a rise in the evening, but none of it has continuity. We see a rebound from the bottom and a retreat from the top; this is the real volatility. The short positions we arranged in the morning have yielded over a thousand points in Bitcoin and nearly a hundred points in Ethereum. Due to the small volatility, there was no further expansion of the space; the current rhythm is to take profits and secure gains. The midnight market continues to short around the middle track!

From the overall structure, the market has been rising consistently from the lower track to the middle track, but has started to adjust due to resistance at the middle track, with no momentum for a breakthrough. The current rhythm is clearly a wave-type pullback, using the middle track as resistance. This has been clearly explained before, and it remains the same at midnight: if it does not break, it will drop. This is the current main tone, and the upper track is clearly narrowing downwards, with high points moving lower, indicating the end of bullish momentum. So, the primary focus at midnight is on short positions.

Bitcoin is short around 112600-112900, targeting 110000.

Ethereum is short around 4650-4670, targeting 4450$BTC .

$BTC
Most people facing a loss will just endure it, not knowing there are more scientific ways to resolve it. You stay up late watching the market for precise bottom fishing, yet the market continues to plummet. Once your positions are trapped, should you cut your losses, add to your positions, or let it be? 90% of people make the wrong choice and end up with a total loss. Today, I will share the common techniques professional traders use to resolve losses. Once mastered, these techniques can not only turn danger into safety but might even allow for a turnaround.

First Move: Determine 'True Loss' vs. 'False Loss'
True Loss: When the trend completely reverses, such as breaking below a key support level on the weekly chart, you must stop loss immediately.
False Loss: Just a short-term shakeout, like a quick needle spike followed by a rapid recovery, can wait for a rebound.
Technique: Use 'Multi-Timeframe Resonance' to judge; look at the overall direction on the 1-hour chart, find entry opportunities on the 15-minute chart, and closely monitor reversal signals on the 5-minute chart.
Second Move: Dynamic Averaging Down Technique (Many people average down incorrectly)
Incorrect Approach: Averaging down after a 10% drop, resulting in greater losses and ultimately leading to a total loss due to heavy positions.
Correct Approach:
1. Only average down at key support levels.
2. Each averaging down amount should not exceed 50% of the original position.
3. After averaging down, bring the average price closer; when it rebounds near the cost price, first reduce half of the position.
Example: A certain coin drops from 1U to 0.7U; average down at the 0.65U support level and reduce the position when it rebounds to 0.8U, not only successfully resolving the loss but also making a 15% profit.
Third Move: Hedging Magic (90% of people don’t know this)
When you find that the trend may continue to decline and you don’t want to stop loss:
1. Open an equal volume opposite contract; for example, if long positions are trapped, open short positions to hedge.
2. Set the short position take profit equal to the long position cost price, so regardless of whether the market rises or falls, you can break even.
Advanced Play: Use options to hedge, which is cheaper and more efficient.
The core of resolving losses is to protect the principal. If the position exceeds 50%, it is advisable to first cut losses by 50%, and then use the aforementioned methods for the remaining portion.

Ethereum's overall intraday trend is also undergoing a pullback, with Bitcoin and Ethereum moving in tandem. The short momentum has released a wave during the day, and our Ethereum short position at 4640 has captured nearly a hundred points in space, seizing the rebound high point to enter directly. This demonstrates control over the market. The short volume is not limited to this; we will wait for the U.S. stock market to open and then see another round of short volume increase. $BTC

Slow decline retracement is ongoing, short positions continue to take profits! There is already a thousand-point space available, Bitcoin's weakness continues, and the midnight rebound is just a buildup for a breakout. The lower level of 108600 is not the bottom, there is still some space available, feel free to look lower. Those who followed up this morning can reduce their positions and continue to hold downwards. Waiting for the breakout at the 110000 level! $BTC

Bitcoin's intraday market first rose and then fell, which allowed our morning arranged short position to enter perfectly. There has been over 300 points gained here, and the market is still in further retracement. Here, you can continue to hold without change. Those who haven't entered can wait for another opportunity to enter. In a weak trend, just follow the trend accordingly. $BTC

Fluctuating without much momentum from either bulls or bears, Bitcoin's midnight market touched bottom and rebounded, rising 2000 points to a peak around 112300, later hovering under pressure around 111800 with no breakthrough sentiment. The market was relatively stable at midnight, indicating that the bulls may have fully released their energy last night, as it has been adjusting around 4580. The overall pace of the market has slowed down, and there has been no continuation of a one-sided trend. This is actually quite good; sharp declines are not beneficial, and slow declines can wear down the bulls' momentum. Today, we continue to look bearish.

From the four-hour level, Bitcoin is still in a downtrend, and the upper middle band is still opening downwards. Although two large bullish candles have pushed the market close to the middle band, there is no clear continuation, followed by the formation of upper shadows. The hourly level is even more pressured at the upper band of 111800, and the continuous bullish volume has exhausted the bulls' momentum, leading to an overall bearish stance for the day.

Bitcoin is trading around 112000-112500 for shorts, targeting 110000.

Ethereum is trading around 4620-4640 for shorts, targeting 4400$BTC .

Time quietly passes by, and in the blink of an eye, it is midnight. Bitcoin and Ethereum's trends diverge again today. Bitcoin is weak, retracing by structure, while Ethereum's retracement is limited, but its rebound is strong, sharply piercing to 4576, which is indeed exaggerated. Currently, Bitcoin is hovering around 109700, with some room for downward movement. The rebound short we arranged during the day has nearly captured a thousand points of space for Bitcoin, but Ethereum's movements are quite erratic, unfortunately triggering a stop loss. In the current market trend, maintaining good defense is key. Ethereum's fluctuations can easily exceed a hundred points, making it difficult to bear. Although the trend is clear, one should not gamble on its amplitude; it is essential to seek victory steadily!

From an overall structural perspective, Bitcoin is still undergoing retracement adjustments around a downward channel, with the midpoint serving as a pressure point. The high points are gradually moving down, indicating a change in trend. The era of looking bullish day and night has passed; conforming to the current market is crucial. There is no clear resistance below in the short term, and the only reference point is the previous adjustment position around 105000. If bearish, aim for this position first, as there are no significant news events to cause changes.

Bitcoin is short around 110000-110300 at midnight, looking at 107000.

Ethereum is short around 4540-4560 at midnight, looking at 4350$BTC .

Ethereum's momentum is still strong, providing a slight rebound. Friends who have followed the short positions here can add to their positions again and continue to look down. The bears are still in a strong phase. Bitcoin is linked to Ethereum, and the rebound is just a buildup. A pullback to 4350 is not a big issue; just maintain good defense, and 4530 is fine. Wait for the drop $ETH

Bitcoin and Ethereum's intraday market volatility is minimal, and the overall market remains stable. The short positions I arranged this morning have already been entered. We can simply wait for a pullback. The market is weak, and the hourly chart is aligning with the middle line. The unilateral signal is clear, so we can simply follow the trend and go short. For those who haven't made any arrangements, short Bitcoin above 110,300 and short Ethereum around 4440. $BTC

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The pancake is gradually pulling back, and the bears have not yet increased their volume, waiting for the opening of the US stock market in the evening.

Seven years of trading cryptocurrencies, profits depend on awareness and discipline
After seven years of trading cryptocurrencies, I lost more than 100 in the first three years and made back several hundred in the following years. Every penny comes with blood and tears lessons!
This market always repeats the same secret: 90% of retail investors focus on news to trade cryptocurrencies, 9% of smart people watch the movements of market makers, while 1% of aggressive players are dissecting market trends using moving averages.
Step 1: Verify the moving averages Treat the daily moving average as three distinct old traditional Chinese medicine doctors — the 5-day line is the emergency department director, the 30-day line is the internal medicine expert, and the 60-day line is sitting in a grandmaster's chair in the specialist clinic. When the emergency department director suddenly perks up and rushes to the two senior doctors to check their pulses (the 5-day line crossing above the 30/60-day lines), this is a signal that the market is preparing to enter the ICU for rescue. Conversely, if you notice the emergency department director slipping and rolling off the grandmaster's chair in the specialist clinic (the 5-day line crossing below the 30/60-day lines), do not hesitate, immediately adjust your positions.
Step 2: Establish a trading system to prevent emotional trading
Now please stick a note on your trading screen and write in bold marker: When moving averages fight, ordinary people retreat. When the 5-day line and the 30-day line are tangled like twisted dough, rushing into the market is akin to rolling dice to guess odd or even. A true hunter only pulls the trigger when all three lines are marching in the same direction.
Here’s a counterintuitive piece of information: In the cryptocurrency market, where wild fluctuations are common, the strategy of using daily moving averages is often more straightforward and deadly. Just like a true martial arts master never needs to display fifty starting moves, a breakthrough of the 5-day line is the signal to draw the sword, and a turn of the 60-day line is the moment to sheathe it.
Step 3: Weld discipline onto the trading platform
I’ve seen too many people write their trading plans on napkins, only to be scared into tearing them up in the middle of the night by a sudden spike in prices. The most cruel yet merciful aspect of the daily moving average strategy is that it forces you to become an emotionless signal-executing machine.
Here’s a dark humor story: A trader who had steadily profited using the daily moving average strategy for three years received a breaking alert on the 5-day line at a wedding last year, and he literally snuck into the bathroom to close his position before coming out to exchange rings. Afterward, the bride pulled his ear and scolded him, but seeing the account balance, she silently got him a top-tier monitor.
If you want to make money, don't be a lone warrior. Follow me.

Bitcoin and Ethereum have rebounded to the expected range, and this bottoming recovery pace will certainly retract again; the rebound is merely a buildup, so short it. Just wait for the market to pull back!! $BTC

The pancake rebounds to expectations, short-selling momentum will increase, waiting for a drop