JeRry的加密日記
Open Trade
Frequent Trader
1.4 Months
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99% of the market is made up of mobs - avoid emotional trading
$BTC
1. Core Principles of Novice Trading
1. Position Management Pyramid
- Entry stage: 10% trial position → 30% increase position → 50% full position (need to cooperate with trend confirmation)
- Fund allocation: single currency position ≤ 30%, cross-currency diversification ≥ 5 targets
2. Market State Identification Matrix
Market Type Sideways at high level Sideways at low level Rapidly rising Slowly falling
Operation strategy: Take profit 50% + increase position 30% + reduce position 20% Open positions in batches
Risk factor ★★★★★ ★★☆☆☆ ★★★★☆ ★★☆☆☆
2. Advanced Trading Strategy System
1. Time dimension operation method
- Day trading: 15-minute K-line + Bollinger band channel operation (volatility <3%)
1. Core Principles of Novice Trading
1. Position Management Pyramid
- Entry stage: 10% trial position → 30% increase position → 50% full position (need to cooperate with trend confirmation)
- Fund allocation: single currency position ≤ 30%, cross-currency diversification ≥ 5 targets
2. Market State Identification Matrix
Market Type Sideways at high level Sideways at low level Rapidly rising Slowly falling
Operation strategy: Take profit 50% + increase position 30% + reduce position 20% Open positions in batches
Risk factor ★★★★★ ★★☆☆☆ ★★★★☆ ★★☆☆☆
2. Advanced Trading Strategy System
1. Time dimension operation method
- Day trading: 15-minute K-line + Bollinger band channel operation (volatility <3%)
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What kind of trading strategy has a high survival rate?
Quick response to market fluctuations—seize price volatility opportunities
The market is highly volatile, and prices may experience significant fluctuations in a short period. Short-term trading allows investors to quickly respond to these frequent price changes and capture fleeting profit opportunities. For example, when the market experiences drastic price fluctuations due to unexpected news or events, short-term traders can immediately buy or sell based on market changes, taking advantage of short-term price movements for profit. The price of Bitcoin may rise or fall by several percentage points within minutes due to trades by large institutions, and short-term traders can seize this opportunity to trade and make a profit.
The market is highly volatile, and prices may experience significant fluctuations in a short period. Short-term trading allows investors to quickly respond to these frequent price changes and capture fleeting profit opportunities. For example, when the market experiences drastic price fluctuations due to unexpected news or events, short-term traders can immediately buy or sell based on market changes, taking advantage of short-term price movements for profit. The price of Bitcoin may rise or fall by several percentage points within minutes due to trades by large institutions, and short-term traders can seize this opportunity to trade and make a profit.
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How to Excel in Short-term Trading
The seven qualities of a short-term trader
Trading strategies and rational thinking
- Choose suitable strategies: There are various strategies in trading, such as value, growth, momentum, and short-selling. Traders need to find strategies that suit their personality and work hard to master them. For instance, a calm trader may be more suited to value investing strategies, while a more aggressive trader may be more interested in momentum strategies. Learning strategies can be achieved by consulting those who have successfully applied them, then combining that knowledge with personal characteristics.
- Cultivate rational thinking: Investing involves dealing with numbers, which requires rational thinking to explore the essence behind phenomena, rather than being confused by the phenomena. In trading, one should think more about the reasons behind the market trends and measure the extent of market and capital changes with relative values. For example, when market trends and fundamentals do not align, one should not stubbornly stick to wrong judgments but understand the situation.
Trading strategies and rational thinking
- Choose suitable strategies: There are various strategies in trading, such as value, growth, momentum, and short-selling. Traders need to find strategies that suit their personality and work hard to master them. For instance, a calm trader may be more suited to value investing strategies, while a more aggressive trader may be more interested in momentum strategies. Learning strategies can be achieved by consulting those who have successfully applied them, then combining that knowledge with personal characteristics.
- Cultivate rational thinking: Investing involves dealing with numbers, which requires rational thinking to explore the essence behind phenomena, rather than being confused by the phenomena. In trading, one should think more about the reasons behind the market trends and measure the extent of market and capital changes with relative values. For example, when market trends and fundamentals do not align, one should not stubbornly stick to wrong judgments but understand the situation.
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The Essence of Trading
The essence of trading is largely related to market behavior and trading psychology. The market consists of the behaviors of numerous participants, which reflect the psychological state and decision-making processes of market participants. For example, George Soros once said, 'The market is like a battlefield; mindset determines victory or defeat.' This statement emphasizes the importance of a trader's mindset for trading outcomes. Additionally, Benjamin Graham pointed out, 'The market is always right; the only thing wrong is your viewpoint.' This indicates that traders need to respect the market rather than try to fight against it.
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Discussing Short-term Trading and Long-term Trading
I. Core Differences
Short-term Trading
Long-term Trading
Time Frame Minutes to weeks (usually in hours/days) Months to years (focusing on long-term value)
Core Objective Capture short-term price fluctuations, pursue quick profits Achieve long-term value through fundamental analysis
Analysis Method Technical analysis (price charts, indicators, market sentiment) Fundamental analysis (technical strength, team background, industry trends)
Market Focus High-frequency volatility, immediate news events
Project development potential, ecological construction, policy environment
Trading Costs Higher (frequent trading fees, slippage) Lower (low-frequency operations)
II. Pros and Cons Comparison
Short-term Trading
Advantages
1. Many quick profit opportunities
2. Flexible response to market fluctuations
3. Leverage effect amplifies returns
Disadvantages
1. High risk (market unpredictability)
2. Requires constant monitoring, high psychological pressure
3. Accumulated trading costs are high
Long-term Trading
Advantages
1. Reduces interference from short-term fluctuations
2. Higher stability of returns
3. Reduces emotional trading
Disadvantages
1. Long capital occupation cycle
2. Requires in-depth fundamental research
3. May miss short-term arbitrage opportunities
III. Recommended Target Audience
Short-term Trading - Ample time, able to monitor the market in real-time - Familiar with technical analysis tools - Strong risk tolerance, pursuing short-term high returns
Long-term Trading - Focused on long-term value investment - Possesses fundamental research capabilities - Low liquidity requirements, strong patience
IV. Comprehensive Recommendations
1. Mixed Strategy: Funds can be divided into two parts, with part used for short-term opportunities and part for long-term potential projects.
2. Risk Management: Short-term trading requires strict stop-loss and take-profit settings, long-term trading requires regular assessment of project progress against expectations.
3. Market Adaptability: In a high-volatility cryptocurrency environment, short-term trading needs to be cautious of extreme market conditions, while long-term trading should focus on compliance risks.
I. Core Differences
Short-term Trading
Long-term Trading
Time Frame Minutes to weeks (usually in hours/days) Months to years (focusing on long-term value)
Core Objective Capture short-term price fluctuations, pursue quick profits Achieve long-term value through fundamental analysis
Analysis Method Technical analysis (price charts, indicators, market sentiment) Fundamental analysis (technical strength, team background, industry trends)
Market Focus High-frequency volatility, immediate news events
Project development potential, ecological construction, policy environment
Trading Costs Higher (frequent trading fees, slippage) Lower (low-frequency operations)
II. Pros and Cons Comparison
Short-term Trading
Advantages
1. Many quick profit opportunities
2. Flexible response to market fluctuations
3. Leverage effect amplifies returns
Disadvantages
1. High risk (market unpredictability)
2. Requires constant monitoring, high psychological pressure
3. Accumulated trading costs are high
Long-term Trading
Advantages
1. Reduces interference from short-term fluctuations
2. Higher stability of returns
3. Reduces emotional trading
Disadvantages
1. Long capital occupation cycle
2. Requires in-depth fundamental research
3. May miss short-term arbitrage opportunities
III. Recommended Target Audience
Short-term Trading - Ample time, able to monitor the market in real-time - Familiar with technical analysis tools - Strong risk tolerance, pursuing short-term high returns
Long-term Trading - Focused on long-term value investment - Possesses fundamental research capabilities - Low liquidity requirements, strong patience
IV. Comprehensive Recommendations
1. Mixed Strategy: Funds can be divided into two parts, with part used for short-term opportunities and part for long-term potential projects.
2. Risk Management: Short-term trading requires strict stop-loss and take-profit settings, long-term trading requires regular assessment of project progress against expectations.
3. Market Adaptability: In a high-volatility cryptocurrency environment, short-term trading needs to be cautious of extreme market conditions, while long-term trading should focus on compliance risks.
See original
Today I want to discuss a topic: The Essence of Trading Systems
1. The Underlying Logic of Triangle Patterns
In quantitative trading models, the "triangle pattern" is essentially a three-dimensional deconstruction of traders' perceptions of market volatility characteristics:
1. Frequency Dimension: Decision density within a unit of time (high frequency/low frequency)
2. Risk Dimension: Profit and loss ratio threshold per trade (conservative/aggressive)
3. Time Dimension: Volatility exposure of the holding period (short-term/long-term)
In the three-dimensional coordinate system formed by these three variables, any trading system must encounter the "impossible triangle": as trading frequency increases, the profit and loss ratio per trade must decrease; if a high win rate is pursued, the holding period must be extended. This nonlinear relationship determines that the choice of trading model is essentially a matching issue between cognitive frameworks and personality traits.
Taking my own practice as an example, the construction of a short-term trading system follows three underlying principles:
1. Volatility Capture Mechanism: Trigger trading signals through a 0.5% volatility sensitivity threshold.
2. Leverage Constraint Model: Maintain a dynamic balance with a 10x leverage ratio and 5% position.
3. Trading Psychological Anchoring: The cognitive loop of "holding is risk," avoiding the psychological loss of long-term holdings.
In response to the criticism that "short-term trading cannot capture large market movements," a new cognitive framework needs to be established:
1. Volatility Arbitrage Theory: A one-sided market is essentially a phase imbalance of volatility, which can capture trend initiation points through multi-cycle resonance.
2. Risk Budget Model: Control single trade losses within 0.5% of total capital, allowing 100 trades to accumulate a potential profit space of 50%.
The essence of a trading system is the quantum entanglement between the trader and market volatility. When the cognitive framework and personality traits resonate, any model can potentially yield unique excess returns. As revealed by the turtle trading rules: a successful trading system is not designed but chosen.
1. The Underlying Logic of Triangle Patterns
In quantitative trading models, the "triangle pattern" is essentially a three-dimensional deconstruction of traders' perceptions of market volatility characteristics:
1. Frequency Dimension: Decision density within a unit of time (high frequency/low frequency)
2. Risk Dimension: Profit and loss ratio threshold per trade (conservative/aggressive)
3. Time Dimension: Volatility exposure of the holding period (short-term/long-term)
In the three-dimensional coordinate system formed by these three variables, any trading system must encounter the "impossible triangle": as trading frequency increases, the profit and loss ratio per trade must decrease; if a high win rate is pursued, the holding period must be extended. This nonlinear relationship determines that the choice of trading model is essentially a matching issue between cognitive frameworks and personality traits.
Taking my own practice as an example, the construction of a short-term trading system follows three underlying principles:
1. Volatility Capture Mechanism: Trigger trading signals through a 0.5% volatility sensitivity threshold.
2. Leverage Constraint Model: Maintain a dynamic balance with a 10x leverage ratio and 5% position.
3. Trading Psychological Anchoring: The cognitive loop of "holding is risk," avoiding the psychological loss of long-term holdings.
In response to the criticism that "short-term trading cannot capture large market movements," a new cognitive framework needs to be established:
1. Volatility Arbitrage Theory: A one-sided market is essentially a phase imbalance of volatility, which can capture trend initiation points through multi-cycle resonance.
2. Risk Budget Model: Control single trade losses within 0.5% of total capital, allowing 100 trades to accumulate a potential profit space of 50%.
The essence of a trading system is the quantum entanglement between the trader and market volatility. When the cognitive framework and personality traits resonate, any model can potentially yield unique excess returns. As revealed by the turtle trading rules: a successful trading system is not designed but chosen.
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