ＱＵＡＮＴ助手

I rarely post updates because I only do long-term (recently it has reached the harvest season), many old followers have also used my model to look at signals and trade by themselves, so I don't need to guide too much.

The orders before the election have recently been taking profits one after another, and for ETH, both contract and spot were completely liquidated yesterday; whether it goes up or down from here has nothing to do with me, the performance was indeed disappointing.

Additionally, this is the benefit of long-term investing; you only need to trade once a month without worrying about any fluctuations in between.

$ETH

This Monday, Deepseek firmly occupied the market's C position, leading to a significant decline in technology stocks. Subsequently, some stocks rebounded after the earnings reports were released; however, the true drivers of the stock price recovery were not the earnings reports, but rather statements from CEOs like Musk and Zuckerberg, who are essentially promoting future prospects. Personally, I do not agree with this, as I believe Trump’s new administration has only been in office for two weeks, and both of these individuals are deeply connected to Trump, making it unlikely for them to express any negative opinions at this time. Some Wall Street analysts claim that the company's AI capital expenditures have not decreased due to Deepseek, but I believe they will not acknowledge this in the short term and further observation is required to see how things develop. The earnings reports released this week did not perform well overall; for example, Tesla adjusted its accounting practices, leading to inflated profits through its Bitcoin investments. Therefore, I remain cautious about these technology stocks, and some Wall Street analysts are also beginning to turn pessimistic. I believe the impact of Deepseek on AI is far from over, and the sluggish performance of some technology stocks has not ended.

I also want to discuss other potential impacts of Deepseek, particularly its influence on energy stocks. AI computing and data centers have a significant demand for energy; thus, while Deepseek's news hit technology stocks, energy stocks, especially uranium stocks, also suffered severe setbacks. In recent years, the U.S. has restarted some old nuclear reactors and discussed increasing nuclear energy and uranium supply to meet the energy consumption of the AI industry. If Deepseek discovers low-energy consumption methods, the demand for energy, particularly for uranium, will decrease, which will put new pressure on the energy sector.

In summary, the market changes this week are thought-provoking, and the impact of Deepseek is clearly not yet over.

Let's interpret the latest statements from the Federal Reserve. Overall, Powell's speech and management were quite good. The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged, which was in line with expectations. The change that caught the market's attention was that Powell indicated there is no rush to cut interest rates, while removing the description of a worsening labor market and emphasizing that the U.S. economy is in good shape. One could say this was his best performance in a long time, and the effect of this statement is that it provided some support for long-term bonds. Since the first rate cut last September, long-term yields have actually risen significantly as the market perceived the Fed's stance as too dovish. Now that the Federal Reserve has become more balanced, this is also good news for U.S. mortgage rates. It is worth mentioning that based on yesterday's price action, despite the Fed being slightly more hawkish than before, the dollar did not strengthen. Moreover, tariffs on Canada and Mexico are about to take effect, which should have been an opportunity for the dollar to strengthen, yet it did not, and the dollar fell against the yen. I find this price action very interesting, as it reaffirms the market's sentiment: Trump is not as hawkish on tariffs as he was before the election. This reflects the current market pricing; of course, if Trump adjusts his stance in the future, the market pricing will change accordingly. In summary, Powell performed better than I expected last night, and the market's reaction confirmed this.

The big and the second cakes can neither go up nor down, which makes the copycats reach a new low
$TRUMP
#

Bitcoin

USDT is up, more and more people are cashing out, I guess today will be a bloody day. If you want to scold, scold Chuanzi.
$TRUMP

What else is there to analyze about candlestick charts? Following trends is more profitable.

If $trump reaches a market value of $DOGE , it will be $300 each.

The script for $TRUMP is ready, and it will surpass $DOGE to become the king of memes, the luxury within memes.

Currently, the most lucrative Black hole, draining the entire cryptocurrency market. To the moon

Originally, $XRP was the big brother of this round of shanzhai, and it has already driven the market up a lot this week. With the shanzhai season approaching, Trump’s coin release has directly absorbed funds into the primary market, causing a reversal of the gains from the past two days. I just want to ask, when will my zero-value BMIA come back to life?

Similar to $JUP, there are also $RAY and ORCA.

usdt.d has fallen below, congratulations to everyone for making a fortune

My three holdings include

$BTC , no more explanation

CZ's education sector $EDU
and Musk Trump's $DOGE

Three black swans are about to strike this week, and the global capital markets are likely to face another blow.

Currently, the biggest concern in the global capital markets is that the US dollar index is above 110. If the dollar index exceeds 110, major global assets will undoubtedly experience significant declines, and this week could see three consecutive black swans prompting the dollar index to continue rising.

The first black swan is that the Bank of Japan is set to raise interest rates again. At the end of January, the Bank of Japan will hold a monetary policy meeting, but last week, the Bank of Japan did not provide any guidance to the market. Therefore, on Tuesday, during the last window period, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda is likely to communicate with the market. If the Bank of Japan releases hawkish news during this communication meeting, it may lead to an interest rate hike, which could cause the market to react sharply.

The second black swan is that even if the US debt ceiling is resolved as scheduled, it will not be good news for the market but rather bad news. Because once the debt ceiling is resolved, the US government will have to issue bonds in a rush, which will absorb liquidity from the market, draining excess cash from the market and causing assets like Bitcoin to experience a liquidity-induced spiral downward. US bank deposit reserves have already fallen to the 8% lower limit, and if the debt ceiling releases a liquidity bomb, the Federal Reserve may ultimately have to pause or end its balance sheet reduction.

The third black swan is the US inflation CPI, which the market is most concerned about. The CPI in December is expected to rebound again, given that last December's CPI base was relatively low. The market is now on edge, and those feeling drowned are looking to the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut as their only lifeboat. However, this lifeboat has begun to leak (last week's non-farm payrolls exceeded expectations), and everyone believes the Federal Reserve may only cut rates once this year or possibly not at all.

Which of these three black swans will ultimately breach the market? Let’s wait and see.
$BTC $BIO
#晒交易赢奖励 #比特币价格走势分析 #还有山寨季？ #非农数据大幅超出预期 #加密市场回调

ChatGPT can be used to trade cryptocurrencies and watch movies at the same time

$CGPT $AIXBT #sophie_xdt #AIXBT、CGPT、COOKIE将上线币安

If you adjust too much, it will bounce; if it bounces too much, you adjust. It's this kind of logic.

The data that came out yesterday was relatively good, leading to a reduction in interest rate cut expectations, which will push back the timing of rate cuts, directly causing the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury to rise. This is very unfriendly to the market.

Another point is that the positive outcomes from CES were released yesterday, along with the previous surge being too strong.

You will definitely ask what will happen next. Today, focus on the ADP employment data at 9:15 PM, as this will directly affect tonight's market trend.
$BTC $SOL #加密市场回调 #比特币走势观察 #特朗普上台概念币有哪些？

Recently, in the fluctuating market, both long and short positions can make money, but it's also easy to go in the wrong direction. If you're unsure, it's better to stay in cash and wait for the market. Next, I will discuss the key points to focus on this week.

The first thing is the Global Consumer Technology Electronics Show, where Nvidia and AMD are set to release new products, especially keep an eye on Nvidia.

The second thing is the non-farm payrolls in December and the minutes of the Federal Reserve's meeting, paying attention to whether the Fed will cut interest rates in the first quarter and by how much.

The third thing is to observe the capital flow after Wall Street returns from the holidays, and which direction they want to take.
$SOL $AR $BTC #比特币诞生16周年 #BIO开盘 #SUI创新高 #AIAgent热潮 #比特币走势观察

This new mode is really addictive

Recruiting disciples $BTC

As 2025 approaches, rather than predicting market trends, let's propose a black swan event prediction: What kind of black swan events might occur next year?

Currently, I believe the most likely black swan event is a currency crisis in developing countries or Asia. We have already seen the US dollar continue to strengthen, and Trump's administration will also support a strong dollar; if US Treasury yields continue to rise, then the dollar will also keep increasing. Here, I will explain the macro logic behind this:

As US Treasury yields rise, global investors will be more willing to purchase these bonds because they offer higher returns, which will siphon off funds from developing countries back to the US. To buy these US Treasuries, investors need to buy dollars, hence the dollar will continue to rise with the increase in yields, and this trend is particularly unfavorable for developing countries. Currently, some developing and even developed countries have seen their currencies significantly depreciate, with currencies like the Indian Rupee, Brazilian Real, and Korean Won all falling to multi-year lows. Throughout history, several crises involving developing countries, especially those in the late 90s, often began with currency depreciation that then quickly worsened. Sometimes, large multinational companies in these countries issued dollar-denominated bonds, so as the local currency depreciates against the dollar, the debt servicing costs for these companies rise significantly. Therefore, this is undoubtedly a risk that requires attention. I would list this as the top potential black swan for 2025.

The AI sector will also undergo significant changes next year; the growth rate of AI hardware will slow down, but at the same time, AI software is experiencing an explosion. So, for this round of bottom-fishing, you should know what to fish for, right? The investment made last Friday at $LPT is now nearly doubled.

No one should love $FXS more than I do

I casually copied some reef and am waiting to take off

Earn money from $OMNI to open GPT O1 Pro
200 USD a month is not expensive at all

The whole internet exploded with 15e, once again leading everyone to avoid the waterfall, really feels great
$SOL $NOT $BTC

Is this it? 10% off? $BTC
The benefit of quantification is that you don't need to watch the market and can automatically buy the dip.