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How to Overcome Emotions in Trading (Greed & Fear)

I wonder if anyone has experienced continuously placing orders, only to be stopped out repeatedly, but when your emotions collapse and you hesitate to place another order, the market moves in the direction you initially anticipated. Then you regret it, resolve to be brave and take larger positions next time, or widen your stop loss to hold on, only to find that things have gotten worse.

Erroneous behavior is influenced by emotions and market conditions.
Trading at similar price points in the market, constantly thinking about placing orders, and then stopping out (Have you thought about the reasons? Review your trades and try to articulate the reasons.)

1. Try to step out of your current trading cycle and look for a larger trading cycle.

2. In your order placement indicators (learn to use double confirmation to reduce reliance on gut feeling when reading charts).

3. Allow yourself to make mistakes, reflect, and review; do not be too harsh on yourself to the point of mental breakdown.

Bitcoin did not break below the previous retracement low of 103300 last night. Drawing a trend line from the low retracement on the 4-hour level, since the high of 112000 fell back to around 100300, each time the price surged and then retraced, the lows have not been broken, so do not overly bearish. First, the retracement is at 100300, then a rebound at 110600 followed by a retracement at 102600, then a rebound at 108900, retracement at 103300, last night the lowest retracement was 103400 which stopped the decline and started a rebound. Although everyone hopes for a crash to buy back at lower levels, the market did not crash.

Today, key attention needs to be on the resistance at 107500. If it breaks here, it means the correction is over, and the market will continue to test the 110000 level, even sprinting for new highs. If it breaks down below 103000, then the rebound ends, and it is likely to test the previous low of 100300, or even drop below 100000. Currently, it is forming a triangular convergence pattern, with the highs moving lower and the lows moving higher, so we need to see which side the market will break!

The current price is around 105000. Today, one can try to set up short positions around 106000 and 107500, with retracement targets looking at 105000-104000-103000. Breaking below 103000 would signify a major drop, looking towards 100500, and if it breaks further, it can continue to look down to 95000.

For long positions, one can consider setting up around 103300 and 102500, with targets looking up at 104500-105500-107500.

Ethereum is still in a box range fluctuation, with upper pressure at 2680 and 2730, and lower support at 2450 and 2400. It has been fluctuating within this range for a long time. For short-term operations today, pay attention to the upper pressure at 2550 and 2590, where short positions can be entered, with targets looking down at 2500-2450-2400.

For long positions, one should set up around 2450 and 2400, with targets looking up at 2500-2550-2600.

This is a personal opinion and for reference only! #鲍威尔发言

Sure enough, they are robbers, probably faster than a money printing machine! The U.S. Secret Service plans to confiscate $225.3 million in cryptocurrency assets from a certain crypto scam money laundering network, setting a record for the highest amount reclaimed in a single case.

After falling significantly, it broke through, and the big V Long arrived... On June 18, U.S. President Trump stated that action might be taken against Iran, or it might not. Iran has contacted the U.S. and hopes to negotiate. But now it’s too late; the current situation is different from a week ago. Iran has no defense capability at all and no air defense capability. It is suggested that Iran should visit the White House for detailed discussions. (I suggested) that Iran's unconditional surrender means they have had enough.

When the news was released, Bitcoin rose about 1% in the past 30 minutes, currently quoted at $104,830.

On June 18, Greeks.Live posted on social media stating that the current crypto community shows a generally bearish sentiment, with traders maintaining short positions and focusing on key support levels of $104,000 and $100,000. If the $104,000 support level is lost, altcoins could plummet, raising significant concerns, and the geopolitical tensions surrounding Iran are also increasing market uncertainty.

In the current environment, long gamma positions are struggling, despite expectations of 1-2 standard deviation moves, but the volatility curve has not shifted. Currently, only directional trading is profitable, while volatility strategies are yielding minimal results as prices are barely moving. During this "period of extreme fluctuations," traders are forced to quickly switch trading directions as traditional gamma strategies perform poorly.

This old man is very bad, look at what Trump has been busy with in the past 24 hours!

1. Complete control of Iran's airspace-Trump said on the social media platform that we now have complete control of Iran's airspace. Iran has good air trackers and other defense equipment, and there are a lot of them, but it can't compare with the "stuff" made in the United States.

2. Promise not to get rid of Iran's top leader-Trump posted that we know exactly where Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei is hiding. He is an easy target, but we will not take action against him for the time being, and our patience is running out. Call on Iran to surrender unconditionally.

3. Meeting with the security team-Trump and his national security team held an important meeting on Iran in the war room, which lasted more than an hour. Some US officials said that the meeting did not make a final decision on the Israel-Iran issue. But sources said that Trump is increasingly inclined to strike Iran's nuclear facilities rather than support the idea of ​​a diplomatic solution.

4. Disagreement with intelligence chiefs - Trump on Tuesday refuted Gabbard's assessment that Iran is not building nuclear weapons, the first time he has publicly refuted his intelligence chief since his second term. He refuted the judgment of his senior spies and seemed to accept Netanyahu's reasons for launching air strikes on Iranian nuclear and military targets last week. He said he believed Tehran was about to have nuclear warheads.

5. Third extension of TikTok ban - White House press secretary Levitt announced in a statement that Trump will sign another executive order this week to keep TikTok operating. The extension will last for 90 days. The government will use this time to ensure that the transaction is completed, allowing American people to continue to use TikTok and ensure the security of their data.

On June 18, Haze, the founder of GMGN, stated in a post that the issue of the GMGN official account and his personal account being banned by X has come to an end, and there is no need to lock the tweets or remove the GMGN links.

Previously reported, the X platform suddenly launched a large-scale ban against Crypto users, resulting in the bans of Eliza, the GMGN official Twitter account, and several MEME KOL accounts. The X accounts of GMGN and some crypto KOLs were unbanned this morning, and the official X account of Pump.fun and its founder Alon has also been unbanned. #我的交易风格

The daily K-line of Bitcoin has a large bearish candle with equal length shadows, dropping over 4000 points last night. Currently, the hourly chart is in a rebound phase, with the upper band moving downward. Today, it is crucial to focus on the mid-band resistance of the daily K-line, followed by the mid-band resistance of the 4-hour chart, and the upper band resistance of the hourly chart. The bulls need to reclaim territory, and these levels must be broken to the upside. With the ongoing volatility and frequent news, the strategy should primarily focus on short positions. The resistance near the previous high of around 110,000 has been tested multiple times. If this price does not drop, there will be no way to enter the spot market!

For Bitcoin, the upper pressure to watch is around 105,800 and 106,800. Enter short positions on a rebound here, targeting down to 104,500, 103,500, and 102,500.

For Ethereum, the upper pressure to watch is around 2,550 and 2,600. Enter short positions relying on this level, targeting down to 2,500, 2,450, and 2,400.

Personal opinion, for reference only! #GENIUS稳定币法案

Key economic data and events to focus on today: June 18, 2025, Wednesday
① To be determined: The 2025 Lujiazui Forum will be held in Shanghai
② 14:00 UK May CPI MoM
③ 14:00 UK May Retail Price Index MoM
④ 16:00 Eurozone April Adjusted Current Account
⑤ 17:00 Eurozone May CPI YoY Final
⑥ 17:00 Eurozone May CPI MoM Final
⑦ 20:30 US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending June 14
⑧ 20:30 US May Housing Starts Annualized
⑨ 20:30 US May Building Permits Total
⑩ 22:30 US EIA Crude Oil Inventory for the week ending June 13
⑪ 22:30 US EIA Cushing Crude Oil Inventory for the week ending June 13
⑫ 22:30 US EIA Strategic Petroleum Reserve Inventory for the week ending June 13
⑬ 23:15 Speech by Bank of Canada Governor Macklem
⑭ Next day 00:00 US EIA Natural Gas Inventory for the week ending June 13
⑮ Next day 02:00 Federal Reserve FOMC announces interest rate decision and economic outlook summary
⑯ Next day 02:30 Federal Reserve Chair Powell holds a monetary policy press conference

Short Bitcoin at midnight 108500, short Ethereum at 2650, reminded to reduce positions in batches in the morning, then changed to breakeven loss, continue holding what you have. For those without short positions, wait for opportunities to continue shorting high today.

Bitcoin is currently fluctuating at a price of 107500, with the 4-hour Bollinger upper band pressure at 108000 nearby. Focus on low long positions under this pressure for short-term trading. If it fails to break above, then consider shorting high; if it breaks above, the midnight short position can still be adjusted to breakeven loss, and a short-term long can be considered. Alternatively, see if the daytime gives a retracement opportunity, with support at 106500 and 106000 below. If the daytime retracement does not break these levels, then consider entering long positions.

To put it plainly, if you want to chase long, you need to wait for the market to break above 108000 before considering entry points. If you want to go low long, wait for a retracement to test the 106000 level without breaking it, and then enter long positions at lower levels. For high shorts, set up at 109000, with a small double top on the 4-hour level, and additionally participate at 110500, where there are multiple tops facing pressure.

For Ethereum, pay attention to resistance at 2680 and 2750 above, and wait for high shorts at these levels. For support below, watch 2560 and 2500, looking for opportunities to enter low long positions. Given the big ups and downs, it's best to avoid participating in the middle range!

Intraday rebound upwards, short positions have been damaged, and it is no longer possible to chase after this point, as the rebound has reached the resistance level for testing. In the past 24 hours, over 75,238 people have been liquidated, with short positions worth $150 million being liquidated and long positions worth $66.89 million being liquidated.

Bitcoin rebounded at 108,500 during midnight, shorted once, added to the position at 109,500, with a defense at 110,500, and a target looking down at 107,500, followed by 106,500 and 105,500.

Ethereum has resistance at 2,650 and 2,700, short here, with a defense at 2,730, and a target looking down at 2,620, followed by 2,580 and 2,550 here. #币安HODLer空投SPK

BlockBeats news, on June 17, according to Coinglass data, the total liquidation across the network in the past 24 hours was $214 million, of which long positions liquidated amounted to $68.3179 million, and short positions liquidated amounted to $146 million.

Is it really that exciting? 24-hour increase of 54%! The Meme coin LABUBU, based on the Pop Mart trendy toy IP, has a market capitalization exceeding 55 million USD, currently reported at 55.03 million USD, with a 24-hour increase of over 54%.

How do traders lose all their capital?

Traders losing all their capital is never an overnight event, but rather a series of accumulated mistakes, each of which seems quite 'normal' until the moment of liquidation.

The most typical 'paths to losing everything' are as follows:

First, going in heavy right away. Many people want to make quick money as soon as they enter the market, and they find a 10% fluctuation too slow, so they go directly for high leverage and large positions. After making one good trade, they think they are geniuses; after one bad trade, they start holding on, hoping to 'wait for it to come back.' As a result, the market doesn’t turn around, and their account is directly halved.

Second, not setting stop-losses + adding to losing positions. A stop-loss is set, but when it reaches the stop-loss price, there’s hesitation, and the thought of 'let’s wait a bit longer' becomes the deadliest idea. When they see larger losses, they simply refuse to cut losses; when they lose more, they add to their positions to average down. As a result, the market trends against them, and their small account is beyond saving.

Third, frequent trading and losing emotional control. After losing, they rush to make it back; after winning, they are not satisfied, repeatedly placing orders and facing losses, their account keeps shrinking, their mindset becomes increasingly volatile, and they end up in a state of 'just wanting to gamble everything back,' leading to total loss.

Fourth, having no system and purely relying on feelings. Today they chase trends and kill dips; tomorrow they guess tops and bottoms, without any logical support, relying on emotions and blindly guessing the market trends. Over time, it all comes down to luck, and sooner or later, they will go to zero.

In the end, many people are not technically poor but are unwilling to admit mistakes, refuse to cut losses, and reject facing reality. Losing all their capital is not due to a difficult market but rather because of their stubbornness.

In summary: Capital is not lost due to a single mistake but is slowly consumed by a series of 'reluctance' thoughts.

Insights into the Cognitive System of Trading!

Do not always think about taking action; you must learn to wait.

Repeated failures, as long as they do not defeat you, are the foundation of success; conversely, if you treat a series of victories with complacent emotions, it is the beginning of failure.

You need to recognize your emotions, rather than trying to overcome them. Understand the sources of your emotions and manage them well.

The process of trading itself is very effective in honing a person's skills. If you do well, you are rewarded immediately. If you do poorly, you are given "a stick" right away.

Never make sudden decisions on days of high stress; if you cannot keep a clear mind, it is better to continue executing your original plan.

The key to winning lies in the profits from successful trades exceeding the losses from all failed trades. As long as the number of trades is sufficient, the so-called law of large numbers in statistics will definitely take effect. #以色列伊朗冲突

Weekly K closed with a bearish doji star, Bitcoin should be cautious of pullback risks!

Last week's K closed with a bearish doji star, the rebound is pressured by the upper track and the previous high of 110,000, while the KDJ three lines are converging forming a dead cross, and the RSI is turning downwards. Therefore, this week do not be too aggressive in chasing the rise, it is necessary to guard against the risk of pullbacks. The daily K Bollinger Bands are narrowing, with both the upper and middle tracks closing downwards, and the price has been under pressure from the Bollinger middle track for three consecutive days on Friday, Saturday, and the weekend. The MACD bears continue to expand, the KDJ dead cross is running downwards, the RSI is turning downwards, indicating a need for a second bottom test, with a focus on short positions in operations.

On the short-term 4-hour level, the Bollinger Bands are severely narrowing, with the upper track continuously pressing downwards, but the lower track is rising. The price needs to drop below 104,500 to open up downward space. For intraday operations, focus on short positions, with resistance at 105,500 and 106,500. Enter short positions on rebounds here, targeting down to 104,500, 103,500, and 102,500.

For Ethereum, watch the resistance above at the 2,550 and 2,600 areas, short positions can be entered here, targeting down to 2,500, 2,450, and 2,400.

Personal opinion, for reference only! #以色列伊朗冲突

Key economic data and events to focus on today: June 16, 2025, Monday
① Pending OPEC releases monthly oil market report
② 09:30 China residential price monthly report for 70 large and medium-sized cities
③ 10:00 China May year-on-year total retail sales of consumer goods
④ 10:00 China May year-on-year industrial value added above designated size
⑤ 20:30 U.S. June New York Fed manufacturing index