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Citi forecasts Bitcoin to hit $135K by year-end in its base case, with a bullish target of $199K fueled by ETF demand, user adoption, and macro drivers.Key TakeawaysBase-case forecast: Bitcoin to reach $135,000 by year-end.Bullish scenario: BTC could surge to $199,000 if ETF demand accelerates.Bearish scenario: Weak equities could drag BTC to $64,000.ETF inflows now account for 40% of BTC price moves, per Citi.Citi Refines Bitcoin Price Model for 2025Wall Street giant Citi (C) has updated its Bitcoin price forecast, projecting BTC at $135,000 by year-end under its base case, and as high as $199,000 in its most bullish scenario.A more bearish setup — driven by soft equities and weaker macro conditions — pegs Bitcoin at just $64,000, according to the bank’s new report.What’s Driving Citi’s Bitcoin Forecast?Citi analysts identified three key drivers shaping Bitcoin’s trajectory:1- User Adoption: A projected 20% increase in user growth supports BTC around $75,000.2- Macroeconomic Conditions: Weak equity and gold performance subtract about $3,200 from BTC’s valuation.3- ETF Demand: Assumed $15 billion in additional ETF flows adds roughly $63,000 to Bitcoin’s price model.This combination produces the $135K base-case target.ETF Inflows Now Dominate BTC Price ActionSince U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs launched in January 2024, ETF flows have become a primary market driver.Citi estimates ETF flows now explain over 40% of BTC price variation.Institutional participation through ETFs, index inclusion, and regulatory clarity are increasingly important to Bitcoin’s valuation.Citi’s analysts added:“Bitcoin’s trajectory now depends as much on capital allocation strategies and investor flows as it does on technological adoption.”Upside Risk: ETF Demand Surging Faster Than ExpectedCiti notes that ETF inflows and user growth are running ahead of projections — a bullish tilt for BTC.ETF demand accelerating could push BTC past the $135K base case.Network effects are decaying slower than models predicted, strengthening long-term adoption.Bitcoin’s Price Scenarios by Year-EndBase case: $135,000Bullish case: $199,000Bearish case: $64,000With ETF demand driving over 40% of recent BTC moves, Citi’s bullish case assumes continued institutional accumulation — while the bearish case reflects macro weakness spilling into crypto markets, according to CoinDesk.

According to Foresight News, Onchain Lens monitoring has revealed that a new wallet has received 13,696.8 ETH from Galaxy, valued at approximately $49.97 million. Currently, this wallet holds a total of 100,972 ETH, with an estimated value of around $376 million.

According to PANews, official data reveals that Circle issued approximately 4.8 billion USDC and redeemed around 4.3 billion USDC in the week ending July 24, resulting in a net increase of 500 million USDC in circulation. The total circulation of USDC now stands at 65 billion, with reserves amounting to approximately $65.2 billion. This reserve includes about $8.9 billion in cash and $56.3 billion held in the Circle Reserve Fund.