Foco no fundamento, sem se levar pelo sentimento, fundamentos sólidos sempre! Não faço propagandas ou indico, eu apenas te ajudo com conhecimento e você decide!
The interesting dynamics of the market that I will explore in this post, everything favors you to incur losses and not profits.
When bad news happens, for example an imminent war, the market collapses strongly, terrible declines, enormous losses; theoretically, when this news "is resolved", the market should return to its starting point before the decline, which would already be bad because you would not recover your loss, since a 10% recovery does not recover a 10% decline, but this rarely happens.
We had a strong decline with the outbreak of the war between Russia and Ukraine, but now everyone is seeing that the end of the war is near, there may still be developments but it will end in the short term, yet this does not make the market react anywhere near what it fell when the war broke out. And so we can list several things: a hacker attack causes the market to crash, but if the hacker is soon captured, everything is discovered, security is enhanced, this does not make the market return. If a broker goes bankrupt, the market crashes; if it recovers, pays those who had lost, or a new broker emerges, the market does not recover in the same way. If bad inflation data comes out as occurred in recent months, the market plummets; however, days ago excellent data came out indicating inflation control, the market expected it to come in line and it came out better than expected, better than the forecast, yet the recovery did not happen, which no longer surprises me.
I don't know if the people who leave the game when bad news comes to light never return, I don't know if this is how the logic of the crypto market works, like gossip: good things don't make news, bad things spread quickly among people, but I know that in this equation, we enter a game where we are always at a disadvantage, the score always starts adverse, our team always has fewer players, a lot of strategy and study is necessary; otherwise, everyone would come to the market and leave as millionaires.
Every sharp movement up or down is followed by a crowd shouting "look at that market manipulation," people who live in a parallel world, thinking that the crypto world is isolated from the rest of the world.
Expand your minds, open them, and understand that cryptocurrencies are part of the global economy.
When unfavorable data comes out for the risk market, such as an indicator signaling a rise in inflation, all risk markets fall, stocks, equities, logically the cryptos, and there are thousands thinking it’s market manipulation, wake up my friend! Obviously, there are strategies that manipulate the market, but evaluate whether you are not trapped by that phrase, because not everything is market manipulation. I have heard that this entire decline over months is market manipulation, but wait, why didn’t they manipulate it upwards then to make profits? Because macroeconomics does not allow it, indices worsen with each announcement, and there is no manipulation that can do the opposite. If any index corroborates with the cut in interest rates in the US, there is no manipulator that can make the market fall, as it will rise immediately, and vice versa. So expand your knowledge and pay attention to macroeconomics and external factors that influence the market in an irreversible way.
We are having many problems with TRUMP's rates and policies, this is pushing the market down, inflation is showing signs of increase, the FED is backtracking on what it had predicted regarding cutting interest rates in 2025, this is what is pushing the market down, the rest are small consequences, but the root is this: macroeconomics is not favorable, and does not show signs of a reversal of this scenario.
Surely you have seen hundreds, thousands of people shouting from the rooftops, DON'T SELL, HOLD ON!
Most Altcoins have already depreciated by over 100%, how are those who are holding up? For those who bought 1 year ago, they are just risking their profit, but how about you who entered in November, December, how comfortable are you with losing 80/90% of your capital?
Friends, don't let anyone tell you what to do with your capital, they don't care about you, they want to lead you to do what is best for them, not for you. I'm not saying you should sell or not, I'm saying you should evaluate your strategy, which is unique and individual; someone else's strategy does not apply to you. I have succeeded by holding, and I have also succeeded by selling quickly AT A LOSS, then seeing the market drop even further, I bought back lower and was still able to make a profit when the market reacted, the right strategy is yours, listen to advice, analyze, but don't be blind, make your decision, make your choice, regardless of what others are shouting and telling you to do.
Do we really need to buy at the bottom? If we reach 120K soon, it may not make much difference if we buy at 85k or 80k. The bigger problem is constantly looking every day and wanting the investment to start yielding right away; we need to think long-term, the crypto world is not a place for immediate gains.
I have mentioned all week that for the market to recover, we need a positive catalyst, and that today at 10:30 AM we had important data from the US economy being released. The data came out neutral, inflation that had been rising has plateaued, neither increasing nor decreasing, but it has already been seen as positive for the market; nothing surprising but the response is there, observe the volume of the currency you have at 10:30 AM today and see that it had a jump in buying volume, and from there it has probably already experienced an increase of 2 to 4% at this moment.
Still nothing very significant, not the size we need to say we've returned, but it's a step we've climbed, and I think we can already celebrate a step taken, but be careful, it's still not a reversal or a sign that from now on it’s smooth sailing.
Take small profits if you are trading, I myself have already entered leveraged and am taking small profits because it’s Friday, the market should be more lateral over the weekend, and for now, that’s all there is.
We continue to monitor the macroeconomy to make the next decisions, we are still losing the war, but today’s battle we are coming out victorious so far.
The Fear and Greed Index for cryptocurrencies has dropped to 20, signaling a market dominated by extreme fear sentiment.
This is the lowest level recorded since September 2024 and reflects fear after all the movement in Bitcoin's price.
Factors driving the fear: Correction of Bitcoin and altcoins, with memecoins recording considerable losses; Regulatory uncertainty in the US, with new developments regarding ETFs and potential tax restrictions; Massive liquidations of leveraged positions, generating short-term selling pressure. But is it an opportunity or extreme risk? Historically, moments of extreme fear often precede recoveries in the market, as they represent strategic entry points for long-term investors. As Buffett says:
$JUP e $BIO are performing surprisingly well, showing a lot of strength; the market is falling, and they follow suit, but any minimal reaction prompts a strong response from them. They didn't even form a double bottom this week, while many did and fell even further, including $BTC .
I am keeping an eye on the data to be released today at 10:30 AM; if it comes out positive, I will buy these two altcoins, never invest everything, and I will take any opportunity for profit as the market is very unpredictable.
Friends, no one knows how far this decline will go, whether we will reverse quickly or not. If someone had certainty, they would dominate the financial world!
There are plenty of speculations; it was common to hear that BTC would reach 200K this year, and now some say it's over and will hit 50K.
But what to do in this scenario? If I don't buy, I might miss a big wave if it reverses; if I buy and it continues to fall, the losses keep piling up.
No one has the magic formula for success, but I want to mention two strategies, and you can evaluate and apply them if you think they will help you:
1- I identified catalysts that could sustainably reverse the price. Today at 10:30 AM, we have the release of economic data from the USA. Positive data could lift us up, neutral data may not influence and keep the market trend, and bad data could drop us significantly. So focus on such things before deciding to position yourself again;
2- When deciding to buy, never invest all your capital at once; buy gradually because if the market continues to fall, you will have more capital to do DCA, and in the end, the declines, if they continue, will be mitigated;
3- Observe where to enter; look for good, solid projects that may be falling but are falling less than others, and never speculate; bet on projects that have utility;
Let us pray for a grand recovery that may begin today with a big leap!!! Amen?
It's painful to see our $BTC at 83k, and without any strength or sign of reaction, in a way that betting on Short operations is safer than Long... What a start to the year, my friends:
1 - Memecoins taking advantage of many traders, sucking liquidity from good projects and destroying a lot of people's capital, who become insecure and leave with losses, never to return;
2 - TRUMP being a completely different reality than we thought, his taxes are threatening inflation and the markets are falling;
3 - Hack attacking systems that we considered very safe;
4 - Macroeconomic factors completely opposite to what we imagined, we thought about cutting interest rates, the FED is talking about maintaining them, and if it gets worse, it could even go up;
I am not writing to panic you, I am writing to encourage your reflection. The market is volatile, it goes up and down. Our role in strategy is to bleed as little as possible during the falls, take advantage of them, and earn as much as possible during the rises.
$BTC has not yet shown any signs of reaction, it has not even tested its resistance to a possible reaction, and when it tested support it sank a little further. Now it is going down again towards support, let's hope we can hold on there and maybe come back up with force, but everything indicates that people are waiting for signs to enter firmly again, and consequently we will have this sideways market today. Tomorrow everything depends on the US data that will be released, if it is positive the reaction will be instantaneous, but save cash because if it is negative we will have more drops, and new buying opportunities further down!
Altcoins, on the other hand, are performing well in this possible recovery, but since they all follow BTC, if it falls, our reaction so far will also plummet.
Friends, I don't have a magic recipe that will help you get out of a loss, but I have some guidelines for you to reflect on, and if you think it's relevant, apply them:
1 - Forget about the money you lost, start over! If you act on impulse, trying to recover at any cost, the market will not take pity on you, and your loss will be even greater. Your only ally is reason, think calmly, and don't do crazy things on impulse!
2 - Evaluate what went wrong in your last strategy. We are tired of knowing that focusing everything on a single TOKEN is risky. We must avoid the fear of missing out, which usually makes us buy at peaks, adjust our Stop Limit in appropriate positions, avoid speculative tokens. But if you've already done all of this and it still went wrong, what happened?
It's not always our fault. This market is not an exact science where doing everything right guarantees profit. Sometimes the entire market has fallen, all strategies have failed, and everyone is at a loss. This is the moment when you can consider leaving, understand the reason for the fall, and wait for signs that it will reverse itself. Then, you can enter again, with a 0x0 mentality, and begin your recovery with patience!
As I expected, BTC fell a little lower and reacted a little so far, nothing impressive, I believe that without an important catalyst there will be no recovery, but the good ALTS have not even retested the bottom and are already targeting the resistances! I am optimistic
Joao Paulo Hornes
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BTC at this moment is only 2% away from returning to its minimum from this last terrible drop we had. It's curious that some alts have recovered quite strongly, some like A $JUP are still 7% away from reaching the minimum price of their last drop. However, without BTC's reaction, they do not react, but I am curious to see the potential of the Altcoins as soon as BTC reacts.
I am looking at the data that will be released next Friday, it will be our chance for recovery, or we may find out that the bottom of the pit is even further down!
BTC at this moment is only 2% away from returning to its minimum from this last terrible drop we had. It's curious that some alts have recovered quite strongly, some like A $JUP are still 7% away from reaching the minimum price of their last drop. However, without BTC's reaction, they do not react, but I am curious to see the potential of the Altcoins as soon as BTC reacts.
I am looking at the data that will be released next Friday, it will be our chance for recovery, or we may find out that the bottom of the pit is even further down!
I lament the losses, friends; it is hard to find someone who hasn't been affected by these terrible last months we are experiencing. Keep an eye on the American macroeconomy; any data that contributes to the decrease in inflation makes the market rise, and that could be the moment for you to recover a bit.
Torrie Rabbitt Ph4s
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From 4,880 dollars to 3,500, I lost more than 80% on Trump, BTC 21% in 40 days, never again this market, Trump I lost everything this chaos doesn't go up anymore, but BTC goes up; I'm selling I'm not getting into this anymore, I don't know how to win in trades, in the lows and highs so it's not for me, I never know when to enter at the right time
In 2021 I put in 30 thousand reais, today it was supposed to be 390 thousand, but I withdrew and invested in my business, this business for small ones doesn't work, it's a game just to lose
The whales suck everything, I didn't sell I'm holding, but it's too much, too bad every day losses, and when it goes up the same percentage, it's less than what I put in
The market has been experiencing a strong decline in recent days, Ethereum hack, Libra scandal involving the president of Argentina, and we have been facing bad factors in the American macroeconomy since December. For those who follow risk investment catalysts, know that none of this is surprising; everything is within the predictable, which does not lessen our sadness and losses, but it does not put us in despair. You know those highs of 2 to 3 days like the TRUMP coin, Libra, and several others? You know it will drop because it is not something solid, it is something momentary, the same happens with certain drops; soon this suspicion of the HACK will fade, soon the president of Argentina will be out of focus, these are momentary things, the bigger problem is the macroeconomy as a whole, which is struggling due to many of TRUMP's tax policies that are increasingly threatening American inflation, which is our greatest nightmare.
Eyes turned to the inflation announcement next Friday; if bad data comes in, we will sink even further. If good or at least neutral data comes in, we will have a start of recovery, where small obstacles in our path like the ones mentioned above will already be forgotten!
Formulate your strategy! Focus on fundamentals! Patience!
start operating with Short then, it's guaranteed profit hahaha... The entire market is falling my friend, everyone who bought something that currency fell, whatever it was.
fernandolove
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Have faith that soon you will be at the little tiger lol
We've all come across this message during downturns. I remember a friend who bought SOL at R$240.00 and sold it at R$220.00, being heavily criticized and even offended by members of a community. But did he do wrong?
In the crypto world, there is no recipe for success. Selling at a loss can be a mistake for one person and a success for another. Don't rely on other people's strategies or on posts that tell you what to do. Knowledge is your only weapon. Those who are "giving advice" don't know your reality. The decision to buy/sell should be based solely on your strategy. You should take into account how long you can hold the investments, what percentage of your risk you are comfortable with, and which currency you are holding.
It's easy to say don't sell at a downturn when we're talking about BTC, but what if the person reading the message and being advised bought a token that is being delisted or a shitcoin that will never recover?
I know we are exhausted, almost everyone is at a loss, but the problem is not the diversity of currencies, this even strengthens the system, the problem is the macroeconomy that is bad, high inflation is not generating the interest rate cut that the market expected, TRUMP is only complicating things with these rates
Adriano 0liveira
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#altsesaon ?? No, we will never have an altseason again, today there are a thousand times more coins than we had in the last cycle, a lot of coins for little money, #Binance launches a new coin every day, the market is saturated with coins so there will never be an altseason again.