mazam9894

#TrumpTariffs

April 9 saw a 90‑day delay on many planned reciprocal tariff hikes across 56 nations .

With that pause expiring on July 9, Trump announced the reimposition or deals—though Commerce Secretary Lutnick clarified new rates truly take effect on August 1 .

The staggered notifications have kept markets on edge.

---

📌 Economic impacts & model forecasts

Domestic economic pain:

A Yale‑Budget Lab study estimates households lose ~$1,700–2,000/year, with low‑income families hit hardest—average hit ~$4,700/year .

Penn Wharton projects a 6% long‑run GDP drop, 5% lower wages, $22,000 lost per middle‑income household lifetime .

The CBO finds tariffs could eliminate $2.8 trillion federal deficit over 10 years but raise annual inflation by 0.4pp and trim GDP growth by 0.06pp .

Business strain:

A JPMorganChase Institute analysis says U.S. employers will bear $82 billion in costs, not foreign exporters .

Goldman Sachs expects companies to pass ~70% of tariff costs through to consumers, squeezing margins .

CFO surveys (see Barron’s): ~40% of firms already passing on costs; expansion plans delayed, growth outlook cut to ~1.4% .

---

🌍 Global ripple effects

OECD has downgraded U.S. growth forecasts from 2.8% (2024) to around 1.5–1.6% in 2025–26, citing tariff-driven supply chain disruption and higher costs .

Europe stands to gain, as businesses pivot away from disrupted China supply chains, benefiting nations like Poland and Turkey .

A $1.4 trillion potential global hit looms if tariff escalation triggers retaliation—echoing 1930s Smoot‑Hawley effects .

---

⚖️ Political and legal flashpoints

A Court of International Trade blocked the sweeping “Liberation Day” tariffs (April 2), ruling IEEPA was exceeded .

Congress introduced the Trade Review Act of 2025 (Cantwell, Grassley), mandating legislative review for any tariffs beyond 60 days — though Trump has threatened a veto .

---

📈 Market and sector responses

U.S. manufacturing (ISM index) has contracted for four straight months; new orders and hiring have weakened .

Auto sales peaked pre‑tariff panic, then plunged: June slowed significantly, with vehicle prices jumping—tariffs up to 25% on imports .

S&P 500 plunged over 10% in early April post‑tariff spike—though equities later rebounded .

---

🧭 Summary & what’s next

Issue Key Point

Tariff reset Baseline 10%, reciprocal up to 50%, escalated steel/auto levies
Household impact $1.7–4.7k/year; lower‑income hurt most
Economic drag GDP −6%, wages −5%, inflation +0.4pp annually
Global realignments Supply chains shift; EU gets a boost
Policy showdown Court blocks IEEPA misuse, Congress demands oversight
Key dates ahead July 9 pause ends; Aug 1 new tariffs live; Q3 earnings to reveal corporate pain

---

🔚 Final take

Trump’s 2025 tariff program is the most aggressive protectionist push in a century. While it boosts revenue and appears aimed at reducing trade deficits, the economic fallout—including weaker growth, squeezed households, and disrupted industries—raises deep questions about its net benefits. Legal pushback and congressional oversight efforts highlight growing concern, and markets are closely watching how the policy unfolds post‑August 1.

Let me know if you'd like a deeper dive into a specific sector—like autos, semiconductors, or how these tariffs affect Pakistan