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Recent Bitcoin Trend Analysis: Long and Short Game Amidst Severe Volatility

1. Short-term Price Trend

Since March, Bitcoin has experienced three rounds of severe fluctuations:

- March 3: Plummeted from $108,000 to $81,000 (daily -25%), over 170,000 people liquidated

- March 6: Briefly rebounded to $91,000 before continuing to fall

- March 10-11: Broke below the $80,000 mark, reaching a low of $76,500 (cumulative drop of 11% over the past 5 days)

2. Future Market Trend Direction

Short-term
Range oscillation between $77,000 - $82,000, focus on Federal Reserve interest rate cut signals and geopolitical easing

Long-term
Institutional divergence intensifies (MicroStrategy increases holdings vs ETF redemptions), clarity of regulatory framework determines direction

4. Operational Suggestions

🔴 Short-term: Strict stop-loss, pay attention to CPI/inflation data
🔵 Long-term: Gradual positioning, beware of contract risks
⚠️ Beware of policy failures and the recurrence of liquidity crises

The Situation in Ukraine and Russia Takes a Turn: Trump Furious, U.S. Troops May Leave Germany; U.S. Cuts Intelligence, Over Ten Thousand Ukrainian Soldiers in Danger!

Recently, the situation between Russia and Ukraine has escalated, drawing international attention from multiple fronts.

1. Trump Angered, U.S. Troops May Withdraw from Germany

According to a report from Germany's news television channel on March 7, Trump is considering relocating the 35,000 U.S. troops stationed in Germany to Hungary. Trump has repeatedly warned Europe to increase defense investments and is furious about Europe's push for war. A spokesperson for the U.S. National Security Council stated that U.S. troops may be repositioned globally in response to threats to interests, and Trump wants U.S. troops to focus on NATO countries that meet a defense spending target of 5% of GDP. Although Hungary has not met this standard, Trump's fondness for Orban may lead to it becoming a new U.S. military base. Earlier this year, Trump proposed a 20% reduction of U.S. troops in Europe and suggested that Europe should bear the costs of stationing troops.

2. U.S. Cuts Satellite Services, Ukrainian Army's Predicament Intensifies

On the 7th, The Washington Post reported that the U.S. has suspended commercial satellite imagery services to Ukraine, which the Ukrainian army heavily relies on for planning operations. A Ukrainian soldier stated that satellite services in Pokrovsk, Donetsk region, have “disappeared,” although Ukraine can still access images through its own accounts. Previously, the U.S. also cut intelligence support to Ukraine and suspended military aid; some analysts believe that the halt in intelligence sharing has a more negative impact on the Ukrainian military than the suspension of military aid, as European intelligence cannot replace that of the U.S.

3. 10,000 Ukrainian Soldiers Face Encirclement

According to a report by the UK’s Daily Telegraph on the 7th, Russian forces have broken through the front line and are approaching key supply lines from two directions, putting 10,000 Ukrainian soldiers at risk of encirclement. Russian troops entered Suja on the 7th, and Ukraine may withdraw troops from Kursk to avoid losses. Currently, fighting continues in Kursk Oblast, and the Ukrainian army may abandon operations in Kursk within two weeks due to restricted access; the Ukrainian side has not yet responded.

4. EU and Poland Strengthen Defense

At the EU summit on the 6th, a plan to “rearm Europe” was agreed upon, proposing to mobilize 800 billion euros to enhance security and reduce dependence on the U.S. On the 7th, Polish President Duda submitted a draft constitutional amendment stipulating that defense spending should account for no less than 4% of GDP. Polish Prime Minister Tusk stated that all adult males will be required to undergo military training and also suggested withdrawing from relevant treaties. In 2024, Poland's defense spending is projected to be 4.1%, with an expected increase to 4.7% this year, the highest among NATO countries.

Today's main event, everyone pay attention ⚠️ to your positions.

《Ukraine: How to Navigate as Cannon Fodder in Great Power Rivalry?》

The war in Ukraine has been truly devastating, with three years of bloodshed and countless lives lost. Yet, after just a few hours of negotiations between the U.S. and Russia, the situation was settled, leaving Ukraine with no opportunity to speak up, as if it were merely a pawn for the great powers.

In 2014, Ukraine and Russia completely fell out, and the U.S. seized the opportunity to pull Ukraine towards the West, providing weapons but not troops, clearly setting it up as a target. Ukraine was too trusting, believing it would gain support, only to become cannon fodder instead. In pursuit of security, Russia brought the flames of war to Ukraine's doorstep.

Initially, European countries actively sanctioned Russia and supported Ukraine, but when the natural gas supply was cut off, electricity prices and living costs skyrocketed, leaving the populace in distress. The essence of this war is the struggle between the U.S. and Russia: the U.S. aims to suppress Russia, Russia seeks to assert its power, Europe wants to reap benefits, while Ukraine confusingly became a pawn. The U.S. provided weapons but left at a critical moment; Russia bombed Ukraine into ruins for self-preservation. During ceasefire negotiations, once the U.S. and Russia finished their discussions, the decisions were made, leaving Ukraine with no say.

Now, Ukraine has been devastated and is burdened with debt. Some online suggest siding with Russia and electing a new president to cancel the debt and preserve land and people, but this is easier said than done. Russia's stance is uncertain, the international community may not recognize it, and the people of Ukraine find it difficult to swallow this bitter pill.

Continuing to fight is not feasible for Ukraine, relying on the West is unrealistic, and depending on Russia is unreliable, while being able to navigate between powers is also challenging. It must calm down, stop being led by others, and find a path that truly suits itself. In the eyes of great powers, small countries are often pawns; Ukraine is not the first victim and will not be the last; it must pave its own way.

Some of Trump's latest news:

- Tariff-related: According to a report from Caixin on March 5, U.S. President Trump stated on social media that Canada’s imposition of retaliatory tariffs on the U.S. would immediately trigger the U.S. to "increase equivalent retaliatory tariffs."

- Congressional speech: According to China News Service, Trump is set to give his first speech of his second term to a joint session of Congress on the morning of March 5, Beijing time, with the theme "Reviving the American Dream." Trump is expected to outline his achievements since returning to the White House on January 20, focusing on four main themes: his administration's policy achievements, economic policy, pushing Congress to pass additional border security funding, and a global peace plan.

- Economic and trade related: On March 4 local time, the U.S. Treasury Department released the latest general license information, requiring the gradual termination of transactions related to the joint venture between Venezuela and Chevron, with a deadline of April 3, 2025, at 00:01 local time. On February 26, Trump announced the revocation of the concessions previously granted to Venezuela in oil trading agreements by the former government, terminating oil transactions with Venezuela.

- Political related: According to CNN, on March 3 local time, Trump stated that over the past weekend, he had spoken with four European Prime Ministers and five Presidents to discuss ending the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

Yesterday you didn't dare to bottom fish, today you dare the most, or do you still dare to short?

In 2025, Trump is determined to become Emperor C, and the absurd drama in American politics is in full swing.

This February, Republican lawmakers across the United States have been offering 'auspicious signs' to Trump. Florida Republican Representative Anna Paulina Luna proposed adding Trump’s likeness to the Mount Rushmore statues, claiming his 'extraordinary achievements' deserve the 'highest recognition.' Trump has long coveted Mount Rushmore; in 2019, he sent a White House aide to inquire about the process of adding a statue there and has repeatedly expressed his desire to take its place.

In addition to Mount Rushmore, there are many other outrageous proposals. Some want to establish Trump’s birthday as a federal holiday, while others suggest naming the West Palm Beach International Airport in Florida after Trump, simply because Air Force One frequently took off and landed there during his presidency. There are even attempts to modify the constitutional amendment limiting presidents to three consecutive terms. Trump seems to be straying further down the path to emperorship, with his political influence continuing to ferment.

Latest News on Trump:

Response to Gaza Vision Video: According to a report by AFP on February 27, Trump recently shared an AI-generated video on social media showcasing his vision for the Gaza Strip - turning it into a 'Mediterranean seaside resort.' Hamas official Bassem Naim responded that Trump's idea does not take into account the culture and interests of the local residents.

Comments on Tariffs: On February 26, local time, during a cabinet meeting at the White House, Trump stated that he would impose a 25% tariff on EU cars and other goods. The U.S. will also impose a 25% tariff on Mexico and Canada starting April 2, but was interrupted by Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo, who claimed that no decision had been made yet.

U.S.-Ukraine Related Matters: On February 26, local time, Trump stated that Ukrainian President Zelensky would visit Washington, D.C. on the 28th, and the U.S. and Ukraine would sign agreements regarding rare earths and other areas. Trump said, 'We will get our money back,' and also stated that the U.S. would not provide security guarantees for Ukraine in an agreement to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict, adding that Ukraine 'can forget' about joining NATO.

Measures Related to the 'Department of Government Efficiency': On February 26, local time, Trump signed an executive order to initiate the 'Department of Government Efficiency' cost-efficiency program. The order requires all agencies to immediately review contracts and grants, explain and publicly disclose employee expenses, and appoint a 'Department of Government Efficiency' liaison to work with agency heads. Additionally, all agency employees' credit cards will be 'frozen' for the next 30 days.

Immigrant 'Golden Card' Program: On February 25, local time, Trump stated at the White House that he plans to start selling U.S. 'Golden Cards' priced at $5 million each in two weeks. On the 26th, he mentioned in the cabinet meeting that if 10 million U.S. immigrant 'Golden Cards' could be sold, the national debt could be paid off, and an additional $15 trillion could even be earned.

Elon Musk, a titan in the tech industry, is known as the 'Iron Man of Silicon Valley.' He sternly warned the United States that if a major power war breaks out in the future, the U.S. may face defeat due to its excessive reliance on high-cost traditional equipment and its failure to adapt to modern warfare. When questioned by a U.S. general about whether the U.S. could defeat China, he bluntly stated that America can never defeat China.

Musk has praised China's development, highlighting its years of rapid economic growth and significant achievements in infrastructure construction, noting that it is the largest and most dynamic market for new energy vehicles in the world. He pointed out that the U.S. has become complacent and stagnant in certain areas, warning that if it ignores China's progress, it may be surpassed in the future, and he cautioned that the U.S. should avoid conflict with China.

Musk's upbringing is extraordinary; he self-taught programming at the age of 10, made his first bucket of money at 12, entered Stanford for a PhD at 24 but dropped out to start a business, and became a millionaire before the age of 30, eventually becoming the richest person in the world by 50. His success is closely tied to his mother, Maye Musk. Maye was born in Canada, became a model at 15, once ran for 'Miss South Africa,' married at 22 but fell into an unhappy marriage. As a single mother, she moved between countries and cities, working five jobs to support her children. Yet, she never gave up. After her children achieved outstanding accomplishments in their respective fields, she moved to New York at 50, revived her supermodel dreams at 62, signed contracts at 68, became a brand ambassador at 69, and published her autobiography 'A Life of My Own,' inspiring countless people.

Boldly predicting the outcome of the Russia-Ukraine conflict: the United States gains minerals and businesses, Russia acquires land, Europe bears debt, and while Ukraine gains the name of peace, it has no chance to join NATO. This indicates that post-war interests are distributed according to strength, Ukraine suffers heavy losses, and Europe invests money and effort but does not receive actual benefits.

Initially, the peace proposal put forward by China was the optimal solution for Ukraine, but Ukraine did not listen, eagerly hoping for $300 billion in support, and in the end, it might not even receive $100 billion, while its own resources have been depleted.

Last night's UN General Assembly vote on Ukraine: the Ukraine-Europe "Promoting Peace in Ukraine" resolution draft passed with 93 votes in favor, 18 against, and 65 abstentions. The United States, Russia, and others opposed it, while countries like China and India abstained; the U.S. proposal initially did not pass due to a Russian amendment but was passed after amendments by the EU and the UK, with 93 in favor, 8 against, and 73 abstentions. China voted in favor of the resolution related to Ukraine in the Security Council, hoping for negotiations among all parties to seek a lasting peace solution.

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