The so-called bull market should not be taken too seriously; everything relies on position management and trading according to the trend. Blindly being bullish or bearish makes it very hard to survive in this market.
BTC Intraday upper pressure 85500-86000 Support below 83000-82500 Yesterday’s thinking was in line with expectations, and those who followed suit have made good profits. From the four-hour level, there is an obvious sideways trend at a high level, and the Bollinger Bands extend horizontally. In addition, the US market is closed today, and the market is likely to be dominated by shocks. It is recommended to arrange high-altitude and low-multiple positions within the range.
Powell's speech in the early morning caused market fluctuations and declines, but it remains in a consolidation range. The current market is clearly in a consolidation phase. The 4-hour Bollinger Bands are narrowing, and prices are fluctuating around the middle band, indicating a possible direction choice soon. The MACD is still in a bearish structure, but the red bars continue to shorten, suggesting that bearish momentum is weakening, with a possibility of a rebound. The RSI across multiple time frames is around 50, indicating a critical market sentiment with balanced buying and selling forces. Trading volume remains low, with a strong wait-and-see sentiment, and the main players have yet to show their intentions. Overall, this is a typical signal before a trend change, and it is recommended to patiently wait for a breakout with increased volume to seize the next wave of market movement.
The daily chart of Bitcoin has formed an extremely dangerous upper pin bar, which is a precursor signal for a significant crash about to occur. Coupled with the very weak performance of U.S. stocks, a breakdown of support may happen at any moment. Friends holding long positions need to urgently exit to avoid risk; we will re-enter for long positions when the market reaches the lower support level.
Remember: In high-risk trading, it is better to miss out! Trading plan: Enter long when a rebound occurs at the lower support level.
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April 14 Review Yesterday, Bitcoin started a slight pullback after the 1-hour MACD death cross, reaching a low near 83,000, just touching the 20-day moving average, then slightly rebounding. Since the daily chart continues to operate above the 20-day line, we expect a rebound here, with the short-term resistance level still at 87,000. If 87,000 can be broken, we will look towards the area around 90,000, with a stop-loss point at 82,000.
This week's 20-week line is around 92,700. Considering that Bitcoin's weekly MACD indicator has not yet reached a favorable position, a subsequent MACD golden cross is needed to initiate a new round of weekly upward trend. Therefore, this week we expect Bitcoin to encounter significant resistance between 90,000 and 92,700, and anticipate a continued pullback next week, at least around 80,000. Thus, when Bitcoin approaches 90,000 later this week, remember not to chase high prices. As for 90,000, we will only look to see it after breaking above 87,000.
On the 4-hour chart, Bitcoin needs to continue to push higher in the short term; otherwise, the 4-hour MACD will continue to death cross. If there is no further upward movement today, Bitcoin is likely to pull back to the range of 81,000 to 82,000, and then wait for the 4-hour MACD to golden cross again before challenging the range of 87,000 to 90,000. Therefore, during the day, observe whether the 4-hour continues to rise or chooses to fall. For aggressive short-term traders, they can go long, with a stop-loss at 83,000 and take partial profits above 87,000.
Summary: 1. Expect Bitcoin to continue rebounding this week, targeting 87,000 to 90,000. 2. If Bitcoin encounters resistance above 90,000 this week, plan for a high short.
Note: The above views are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice.
The MACD histogram red bars are getting shorter: This indicates that bullish momentum is weakening. The opening between the DIF line and the DEA line is tending to narrow, which may form a death cross (DIF crossing downwards through DEA). Although there was previously a wave of upward momentum (red bars increasing), now there are signs of a high-level divergence in momentum. MACD is currently showing a top divergence. RSI is currently hovering around 65. If the price rises further, but RSI does not exceed 70, and MACD continues to shorten red bars, then there will be short-term opportunities for bears. Appropriately take a bearish correction to go long.
After a complex pullback, the daily line begins to rally, reaching the 10999 mark, then starts to decline, testing the Fibonacci 38.2% level, coinciding with the previous key resistance level and support, and is about to reach the bull-bear boundary. If it breaks through the resistance purple line in the direction of the trend, it is currently testing the mid-band pressure of the Bollinger Bands. If it breaks through, along with the MACD turning and the RSI breaking above 50, then the market may be dominated by bulls. If it fails, the market will enter a new breakdown.
Two days, two trades, both successfully triggered take profit. From a technical perspective, the market watching is becoming more mature. Did everyone make a profit?
Yesterday, the empty structure did not hold up, and a short position taken in the trend multiplied four times. This morning's four-hour spike pullback again formed a short-to-long trend, and a long position was taken in the trend, which may temporarily form a sideways market.
One hour structural reversal, a long position has already appeared, but a structural long position has not yet emerged on the four-hour chart. The effective price gap on the four-hour chart is around 82580 and 85260, while the one-hour chart made a long position reversal at 10 o'clock. Therefore, there will be a small-level pullback action, but during the one-hour long position reversal process, there was no price gap created. The market can only pull back to the 15-minute price gap near 79898, and then we will look for support to go long.
Did you catch yesterday's emptiness? After two consecutive days of decline, the market is slightly adjusting overall, and we do not recommend placing orders.