Crypto钟良

Purely for communication purposes, please do not take it too seriously! When it comes to Ethereum, we are not talking about bottom fishing. Looking at the weekly K-line level, we cannot rule out the possibility of forming an M shape like this. The upper level is a double top at 4100, and the lower level is a double bottom at 1500! What does everyone think, is it possible for it to move like this?

币安王牌KOL专属（Crypto钟良）聊天室 Click the link to enter, everyone can give it a try! No need for a VPN, you can click the link directly to enter; you need to turn off the VPN to click the link directly!

Can traders really predict the future market trends?

My answer is very simple — no.

We don't have a time machine, and we can't travel to the future. The so-called "predicting future trends" is essentially an illusion. The market is too complex, and no one can predict with 100% certainty what will happen next.

However, while we can't foresee, we can do one very important thing: assess "which trends are more likely to occur" and determine "which positions hold more advantages."

For example, when the Chinese stock market falls below 3000 points, around 2800 points, there is often state intervention, capital entry, and a strong willingness to buy the dip; whereas chasing after more at 3400 points clearly increases the risk. Comparing the two, it is possible to analyze which has a higher probability of rising and which has a more favorable risk-reward ratio. Trading is not about prediction but about assessing "where to act for a better chance of winning."

This is what we really need to do in trading: identify positions with "probability advantages," enter the market in the direction of the trend, exit when the advantage is gone, and wait for the next opportunity.

The essence of trading is not to guess the future but to stand in positions with a higher chance of success and repeatedly execute a logical operating system. Not being able to predict the future is okay; being able to recognize advantages is enough for you to go far.

6.13BTC/ETH Market Views:

Woke up this morning to see the price plummet, with a screen full of liquidation information for long positions and the bulls in despair... Bitcoin's daily K-line surged up with a big bullish candle, rising continuously since last Friday, but started facing resistance at 110300 here for three days of pullback, then three large bearish candles hit down, forming a big inverted V. At the beginning of the week, there was a surge of short positions, and by the end of the week, there was a surge of long positions. Is all this emotional investment happening in the cryptocurrency world?

Bitcoin hit a low of 102600 this morning to stop the decline and is currently in a rebound repair process. It's already Friday, and with such a long upper shadow on the weekly K-line, it is highly likely that it will close bearish. Looking at the daily K-line, the price is operating between the upper and lower bands, pulling back from the high of 112000 to find support at 100300, forming a deep V up, then facing resistance again at 110300 and pulling back to form an inverted V. For this pullback, pay attention to the support around the last low at 100300, and for long positions, wait to test this area before considering entry.

Continue to short during the intraday rebound, with upper resistance at 104500, 105500, and 106300. Short positions should be deployed around these levels, targeting downward at 103500, 102500, and 100500.

Ethereum surged to 2880 and then pulled back to form an inverted V. The current price is around 2505, undergoing a repair process. The intraday strategy is to look for short positions, with support below at the daily K-line lower band at 2410 and 2380. For long positions, wait to test these levels before considering entry.

For short-term operations today, focus on shorting at high levels. After such a significant drop this morning, indicators need to be repaired. Participate in short positions at rebounds to 2530, 2580, and 2620, targeting downward at 2480, 2430, and 2380.

The market is quite volatile; be sure to manage your positions well, strictly set stop losses, and do not get carried away! #加密市场回调

The perspective at midnight has been expressed particularly clearly! Yesterday provided a low long strategy, and midnight also reminded again in a lengthy message to pay attention to the stabilization situation at 108000. If it doesn't go up, then it will start to decline. It was also mentioned to remember to reduce positions in batches for long positions, then switch to breakeven loss! It was reminded that if it goes down again, then long positions should not be taken! So if you truly understood at midnight and looked carefully, if long positions were exited at breakeven or with small profits, then there really wouldn't be much of a problem! The high short strategy didn't provide an opportunity, it just went down directly...

Zhongliang never avoids anything. Stop-losses are a common occurrence, but sometimes when the reminder is in place, it is indeed in place. If you didn't look seriously, then Zhongliang won't take the blame for some things! Waking up, the long positions are in turmoil, with a lot of liquidations, stop-losses, and the reasons for the battle triggering a sharp drop. This is part of the reason, as the market has been repeatedly pressured at the 110,000 level, making it easy to pull back.

Zhongliang has never shouted slogans at every turn, charging forward or claiming that liquidation means stop-loss, that the market will definitely go to certain places. More often, it is about cooling down promptly, continuously reminding about risks and position control. It was also mentioned that these are personal opinions, for reference only, and not to follow blindly; one should maintain their own judgment, be rational, and objective!

This is the explosive long position, fortunately, midnight reminded everyone that if the market cannot rebound, we cannot take on more longs.

According to BlockBeats news on June 13, data from Coinglass shows that 1 hour after the Israeli attack on Iran, the entire network liquidated 382 million dollars in the past hour, of which long positions liquidated 369 million dollars and short positions liquidated 12.66 million dollars. #币安HODLer空投HOME

In your trading experience, has there been a 'turning point' that suddenly shifted you from loss to profit?

Yes, and I believe that for many traders, the real turning point is not about learning a 'magical skill,' but rather realizing the fundamental issues in their trading mindset.

For me, that turning point was not an explosive profit, but rather a period of 'consistently losing.' At that time, I had consecutive losses, and looking back on each trade, I felt I shouldn't have done it, yet at the moment I thought, 'I can give it a try.' There were no signals when entering, no plans when exiting, and my summary after losing was simply: 'I was a bit emotional at that time.'

At that moment, I suddenly realized that I wasn't losing due to technical issues; I was losing to my own decision-making in the moment. It wasn't that the market was too difficult, but rather that I was too free, wanting to try everything and sticking to nothing.

From that point on, I began to seriously build my own trading system for the first time. Even if it was just the most basic trend + retracement entry logic, I wrote it down as rules, set conditions, specified position sizes, and established stop-losses. The key was that I forced myself to execute 'without emotion.' When the signal arrived, I acted; when it didn't, I didn’t look; after making a trade, I walked away without reviewing past trades. During that time, I no longer pursued profits on every single trade, but instead aimed to stick to my plan on every trade.

It's not that magical; gradually, my profits and losses began to stabilize, stop-losses no longer triggered emotional explosions, and profits began to run more smoothly. The account started to profit, not because of any single trade, but because I finally 'calmed down.'

So if you ask me what the turning point is? It's not a certain technique, but that moment when I finally understood: what truly changes trading results is not what you know, but that you no longer act recklessly. #美国加征关税

How can you hold onto profits in trading?

Most people can't hold onto profits, not because they don't understand the market, but because they are too anxious, have too heavy positions, and lack clear rules.

As soon as they have a floating profit, they start worrying about a profit pullback; at the first sign of a retracement, they close their positions prematurely. As a result, the market continues to move, and they watch anxiously, unable to capture a complete wave of profit.

To hold onto profits, the first step is to have clear take-profit rules, not just rely on intuition. You can use a fixed risk-reward ratio, structural breakdown, or moving averages to exit, but the key is to set it in advance and stick to it.

Second, don't have too heavy a position. The larger your position, the more you fear a pullback, and a single dip makes you want to run. A lighter position keeps your mindset stable, making you more willing to hold.

Third, accept that volatility is part of the process. The market can't move in one go; it's normal for it to shake a bit in between. As long as the rules are not broken, you should hold on and not move.

6.12 BTC/ETH Market Viewpoint:

Although Bitcoin has been strongly rallying, the upward pressure is also very evident, with 110300 being under pressure for three consecutive days, and the previous high of 112000 is a significant resistance. After a bottom rebound at 100300, there have been four consecutive large bullish candles. The day before yesterday closed with a long lower shadow bullish doji, and yesterday closed with a large bearish candle. It cannot be denied that the bullish momentum is weakening, and the upward pressure is quite clear. This is not to sound bearish, but rather to continuously remind everyone that being bullish and going long is fine, but definitely do not be too reckless or blind. Do not chase high prices around 110000, as we are still under pressure! Last night there wasn't much of a pullback, but in the past 24 hours, the liquidation amount for long positions reached as high as 220 million USD, and in the past 12 hours, long positions were liquidated for 180 million USD, indicating that too many retail investors are blindly chasing prices...

Now, back to the market, the strategy for Bitcoin today is to look for long positions at lower levels. The upward pressure remains focused on 110300 and 1108000, while the downward support is focused on 107800, 107500, and 106500. Long positions can be established around these levels, aiming for targets at 108500, 109500, and 110500.

For Ethereum, the downward support is focused on 2750, 2720, and 2680, where long positions can be set up and awaited. The targets above are 2800, 2850, and 2900. The upward pressure for Ethereum is focused on 2880 and 2920. #看懂K线

What is the root cause of trading losses?
Why does your trading always result in losses?
Why do you work so hard to adjust your trading system yet still not profit?
Why does your strategy sometimes work and sometimes fail?
What is the crux of the matter?

Today's article should be a summary of all the previous articles, and I believe it is the key point. Interested friends can read it in depth. The above questions are ones that almost all traders have encountered, and I have experienced them too, so I understand the pain.

I have a few points to share:

1. All technical analyses on the market are effective; for the same market condition, different technical analyses can yield similar results. I believe that there is no good or bad technique; what suits you is the right one;

2. Everyone has a different trading style, and suitable timeframes are also different; whether multi-timeframe or single-timeframe, as long as it suits you;

3. Everyone's analytical and processing abilities vary; choosing a simple trading logic is the optimal choice;

4. Integration of knowledge and action is very difficult, almost impossible; choosing easy knowledge and action is the solution to this problem;

The solution to trading losses is to place trading in simple and smooth market conditions, avoiding participation in complex and volatile markets.

Human cognitive and behavioral abilities are limited; complex and volatile markets render trading logic meaningless. Even if you are very skilled and achieve integration of knowledge and action, you cannot profit;

Conversely, in smooth and simple market conditions, you will find that all technical analyses start to become effective, and the profit potential is significant, with knowledge and action aligned.

Traders should not put themselves in complex market conditions; do not burden yourself. Human abilities are limited; profits come from the market, while losses are under your control.

Above all, let us encourage each other! #看懂K线

Why do you always lose money in trading? 90% of people get stuck at this step!

Many traders keep spinning in the market, and the core reason is simple: they haven't understood the essence of trading patterns. To put it bluntly, trading patterns are not a 'crystal ball' for predicting market trends, but rather a 'filter' to help you sift through opportunities. You must first admit that you will never catch every market movement; understanding opportunities within a single pattern is enough.

Building a pattern is not difficult, but the challenge lies in 'sticking to the rules.' Human nature loves to fidget; when we see other markets rising, we get an itch, especially since trading outside the rules sometimes makes money, while trading by the rules leads to losses. After a few times, trust in the trading rules diminishes, and one focuses only on single profits, forgetting that the premise of probability is multiple trades. This is why you clearly have a strategy but still end up losing money. What to do? Some people need to lose a few more times, face a few more liquidations, and experience despair a few times before they will trade honestly based on trading signals! A good method is to meditate and use self-suggestion to turn rationality into instinct. This way, you can easily trade according to the rules.

In the end, trading is not about skill but about 'perseverance.' Every pattern has its losing moments; the key is whether you can remain unshaken and not give up during consecutive drawdowns. Remember: when you can resist temptation, strictly adhere to the standards, and treat each trade as a 'standard action,' the market will eventually give you the money you deserve—provided that you don't change direction just before dawn. #看懂K线

What is the key factor in whether trading can ultimately make money? 90% of traders have not understood this question!

The key factor in whether trading can ultimately make money is "strictly executing one's own trading system."

In the trading market, many people clearly have a stable and profitable trading system, but why are they still unable to make consistent profits? The main reason is "not strictly executing their own trading system."

How can one strictly execute their own trading system?
1. Trust your trading system 100%
1) The trading system must have undergone hundreds or thousands of backtests to verify and ultimately determine its ability to generate positive and stable profits.
2) Believe that as long as you strictly follow your trading system, you will make money.
2. After gaining trust in your trading system, execute it 100% according to the system.
1) When a profitable opportunity that meets the trading system criteria arises in the market, open a position without hesitation, never hesitate.
2) Set stop-losses with a clear conscience.
3) After opening a position and setting the stop-loss and exit time, it’s best not to monitor the market (even if monitoring, there should be no emotional fluctuations in response to "price volatility").
4) Only check the market at the predetermined exit time; by then, profit will be harvested. Whether riding a roller coaster or being stopped out, or even after being stopped out, if the price moves significantly in the direction of the opened position, there should be no emotional fluctuations. Accept all possible trading outcomes calmly, let everything happen naturally, regardless of profit or loss, keep your mind as calm as still water!

Why is it essential to stick to reviewing trades?

Reviewing trades is the fastest way for a trader to grow. Only by continuously reviewing can one discover the strengths and weaknesses in their trading, achieving daily improvement and enhancement. Only by knowing where one has fallen can one understand which pitfalls to avoid.

For a novice trader without a fixed trading style, their primary task is to establish a set of trading rules. The establishment of trading rules comes from a significant amount of real trading and review summaries.

One must approach reviews with a purpose; there are mainly two tasks in reviewing. One is to find the patterns in market movements. Which chart patterns are more likely to lead to a decline, which structures are more likely to lead to an increase, and so on.

The second is to establish trading rules. After reviewing a substantial amount of historical market data, you should gradually establish your trading rules. How to enter the market, how to set stop-losses, how to take profits, how to manage funds, etc.

Once you have established fixed trading rules, is there still a need to review? Yes, continue to review. Validate your trading rules through reviews and further optimize and adjust them.

Reviewing trades is a mandatory course for traders; it should be done regularly, consistently, and persistently. Learn to review, making every review an accelerator on the path to trading growth. #看懂K线

6.11 BTC/ETH Market Outlook:

Good morning, the approach given at midnight was somewhat conservative, and the long position could not be entered, which is a bit regrettable. Bitcoin allowed for a pullback to 108,000 to enter long, and the lowest pullback was to 108,300, which then oscillated upward; the long position was not entered. Ethereum allowed for a long entry at 2,680, with the lowest pullback stopping at around 2,689, and this morning it surged to around 2,834; the long position was also not entered in time. Bitcoin's daily candle yesterday closed with a hammer candlestick with upper and lower shadows, the upper band opened lower, and there is horizontal resistance above at 110,300 and 1,108,000. In the second half of the week, we must be mindful of the risk of a high pullback; after all, the previous high of 112,000 is there, and if it cannot break through, a pullback is likely. This is not just a one-sided bearish outlook; it is a reminder not to be too aggressive in looking bullish and chasing prices, otherwise, a pullback could easily trap long positions or lead to losses!

Bitcoin rebounded after stopping the pullback near 108,300 yesterday, and on the hourly chart, it formed a small V pattern; the current price is around 109,800. The focus is on short-term low long positions today, and the opportunity for a high short was missed in the early morning. There is short-term resistance above at 110,300 and 1,108,000, making short positions here more cost-effective, but that would have been during sleep! Missing the high short means choosing to wait for low long positions.

Support below focuses on 109,000, 108,500, and 107,500; low long positions should be watched and waited for around here, with targets looking up to 110,000 and 1,110,000.

For Ethereum, support below focuses on 2,750, 2,700, and 2,670; low long positions can be waited for around here to participate, with targets looking up to 2,790, 2,830, and 2,880.

Not every moment is suitable for participation; trading is often about waiting. In some positions where a reversal may happen, it is better to observe. Sometimes missing out on a market is better than making a wrong move in the market. #看懂K线

Trading is the ultimate psychological game of strategy. Many people think that skills are very important, but technical ability is just a surface phenomenon. Essentially, what is being contested are human nature and psychology. Therefore, every trader must explore and understand their own weaknesses; your weaknesses and strengths are very important. We can observe the market every day, but we must not trade every day.

When a significant market movement occurs, positions can be appropriately enlarged. When a minor market movement appears, remain calm and keep your positions light. When there is no market movement, firmly observe the situation; it is better to give up opportunities and trade less, while keeping risks minimized.

In the competitive market, another very important point is that the transaction fees we pay may exceed your profits, so do not consider efficiency when trading. It is important to understand that this market is a test of human nature and discipline, not a contest of education. Many people often feel very smart during analysis, but become foolish during execution. They analyze correctly but act incorrectly because many would rather trust their brain than their eyes. #看懂K线

Midnight BTC/ETH Market Thoughts:

Ethereum took the lead in the evening, directly pulling up from 2690 to 2798, a direct increase of 100 points. The hourly chart formed a rounded bottom, and at 2798, it started to draw down again. For those who chased the highs here, it’s indeed tough, with the price jumping up and down. The lowest retracement during the day was around 2655, then it rebounded to pull up to 2798. Currently, the price is oscillating around 2730 for repair. The midnight strategy is mainly low buys. This kind of upward pull is indeed hard to guess the top for shorting. The upper resistance is at 2820, 2850, and 2900. Below, we will attempt to ambush low buys at the support level and see if we can get an opportunity to enter!

For Ethereum, the lower support to watch is at 2680, 2630, and 2590. Low buys should be ambushed around here, with targets looking at 2720, 2760, and 2800.

Bitcoin surged to a high of 110,600 in the early morning and then retraced. During the day, it oscillated and rebounded at 109,000, with the highest rebound at 109,900 before continuing to retrace. Currently, the price is around 108,500 for repair, with the midnight low buy strategy in place.

The lower support to watch is at 108,000, 107,500, and 106,800. The targets above are at 109,000, 110,000, and 110,100.

The market is experiencing large fluctuations. Everyone must manage their positions, participate lightly in batches, and avoid chasing highs and cutting losses! #看懂K线