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ETH Market Interpretation: Rebound Fails, Downward Trend Continues
Yesterday's rebound in ETH brought a glimmer of hope to the market, but ultimately the price did not break through the key resistance range of 4560-4600. From the perspective of the Chande theory, this indicates that the current reversal attempt has failed, and the market continues to operate within a larger downward center, without forming an effective upward trend. In other words, yesterday's surge resembled a corrective rebound during a downward process, rather than a true turning point in the trend.
Structurally, since mid-August, the downward rhythm of ETH has been relatively clear: the previous divergence has released energy once near 4300, but the subsequent rebound was insufficient, and the price failed to effectively escape the constraints of the center, instead encountering resistance at the pressure level again, which reinforced the continuity of the downward trend. From the market performance, the bears still hold the initiative, while the bulls' counterattack has not broken the overall pattern.
From an operational perspective, the current market signals are quite clear: the 4520-4550 range is a relatively ideal point for short positions. If the market encounters resistance in this area and moves downward, the mid-term target is expected to continue to probe below 4300. Of course, trend trading always requires strict risk control, so it is recommended to set a stop-loss around 4570 to avoid excessive losses due to sudden market reversals.
It is important to note that ETH's recent volatility has relatively increased, and market sentiment is also quite sensitive, short-term trends may be accompanied by repeated fluctuations. However, overall, as long as the price does not truly break through 4600 and stabilize above, the main tone of decline is difficult to change. For medium to long-term investors, patiently waiting for a deeper correction range may be more cost-effective than blindly chasing up.
In summary, the failure of the rebound and the continuation of the trend are the current core logic for ETH. In the short term, focus on short opportunities in the 4520-4550 range, with a mid-term target looking towards below 4300, and strict stop-loss set at 4570. Once the market shows new structural signals, we will adjust our strategy accordingly.
Yesterday's rebound in ETH brought a glimmer of hope to the market, but ultimately the price did not break through the key resistance range of 4560-4600. From the perspective of the Chande theory, this indicates that the current reversal attempt has failed, and the market continues to operate within a larger downward center, without forming an effective upward trend. In other words, yesterday's surge resembled a corrective rebound during a downward process, rather than a true turning point in the trend.
Structurally, since mid-August, the downward rhythm of ETH has been relatively clear: the previous divergence has released energy once near 4300, but the subsequent rebound was insufficient, and the price failed to effectively escape the constraints of the center, instead encountering resistance at the pressure level again, which reinforced the continuity of the downward trend. From the market performance, the bears still hold the initiative, while the bulls' counterattack has not broken the overall pattern.
From an operational perspective, the current market signals are quite clear: the 4520-4550 range is a relatively ideal point for short positions. If the market encounters resistance in this area and moves downward, the mid-term target is expected to continue to probe below 4300. Of course, trend trading always requires strict risk control, so it is recommended to set a stop-loss around 4570 to avoid excessive losses due to sudden market reversals.
It is important to note that ETH's recent volatility has relatively increased, and market sentiment is also quite sensitive, short-term trends may be accompanied by repeated fluctuations. However, overall, as long as the price does not truly break through 4600 and stabilize above, the main tone of decline is difficult to change. For medium to long-term investors, patiently waiting for a deeper correction range may be more cost-effective than blindly chasing up.
In summary, the failure of the rebound and the continuation of the trend are the current core logic for ETH. In the short term, focus on short opportunities in the 4520-4550 range, with a mid-term target looking towards below 4300, and strict stop-loss set at 4570. Once the market shows new structural signals, we will adjust our strategy accordingly.
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这也有人信么
31 days, 3700U turned 6 times: My "Ant Relocation" Position Script
First, the result: At the end of last month, a loyal fan's small account grew from 3700U to 20400U in exactly 31 days.
He didn't look at the K-line Holy Grail, but just printed and pasted the "Three Ant Rules" I wrote for him on the side of his screen.
Today, I have rewritten these three rules in a new way while keeping the essence unchanged.
1. Initial Position: Only allow to be an "Ant"
I divide the principal into 100 parts, each part being 37U. The first order always only eats "one ant" — 37U.
At the same time as placing the order, two steps to lock in the exit:
① Stop-loss price = opening price × 0.992, write it as code and throw it into the exchange, manually change orders directly kick to the group;
② Pre-bury three "ant holes" for additional positions, distance = average daily volatility over the past 14 days × 0.5, calculate and fill out the form, do not act on impulse.
Remember: Once the initial position exceeds two ants, everything will be chaotic.
2. Volatility Strike: Only amplify during "Thunderstorm"
Use 4-hour ATR as radar, when the ATR suddenly expands to twice the peak value of the past 60 days, I call it a "thunderstorm".
Only when the thunderstorm arrives is the "ant" allowed to turn into a "mantis".
Upgrade path:
① Initial position 37U (1 ant)
② Floating profit +50%, add 74U (total 3 ants)
③ Price breaks previous high again, add 240U (total 10 ants, position ≈26%)
The third jump must satisfy that the holdings of the top 10 addresses on-chain < 45%, and the funding rate changes from positive to negative within 24 hours — both signal lights must be green before taking action, missing one means no action.
3. Take Profit: The "Alarm Clock" at Midnight
Once the paper profit reaches ≥300%, immediately withdraw the principal + half of the profit, and the remaining half activates the "alarm clock mode":
• For every additional 10% rise, the stop-loss line moves up 7%, always able to catch up in the dream;
• 1:00 AM — 3:00 AM is the high-risk period for "alarm ringing", during this interval, set the stop-loss order as market price to take profit, leaving no gaps for manual intervention. In the past two years, on-chain data backtesting shows that the probability of a flash crash of -8% or more during this period is 4.7 times that of usual.
Three rules, recite them every day when starting up:
1. Always think of ants first, then think of mantises;
2. If the thunderstorm doesn't come, never transform;
3. Once the alarm rings, profits are secured.
Post these three sentences on the side of the screen; it doesn't matter if the handwriting is ugly, it can save lives. @小花生说币
First, the result: At the end of last month, a loyal fan's small account grew from 3700U to 20400U in exactly 31 days.
He didn't look at the K-line Holy Grail, but just printed and pasted the "Three Ant Rules" I wrote for him on the side of his screen.
Today, I have rewritten these three rules in a new way while keeping the essence unchanged.
1. Initial Position: Only allow to be an "Ant"
I divide the principal into 100 parts, each part being 37U. The first order always only eats "one ant" — 37U.
At the same time as placing the order, two steps to lock in the exit:
① Stop-loss price = opening price × 0.992, write it as code and throw it into the exchange, manually change orders directly kick to the group;
② Pre-bury three "ant holes" for additional positions, distance = average daily volatility over the past 14 days × 0.5, calculate and fill out the form, do not act on impulse.
Remember: Once the initial position exceeds two ants, everything will be chaotic.
2. Volatility Strike: Only amplify during "Thunderstorm"
Use 4-hour ATR as radar, when the ATR suddenly expands to twice the peak value of the past 60 days, I call it a "thunderstorm".
Only when the thunderstorm arrives is the "ant" allowed to turn into a "mantis".
Upgrade path:
① Initial position 37U (1 ant)
② Floating profit +50%, add 74U (total 3 ants)
③ Price breaks previous high again, add 240U (total 10 ants, position ≈26%)
The third jump must satisfy that the holdings of the top 10 addresses on-chain < 45%, and the funding rate changes from positive to negative within 24 hours — both signal lights must be green before taking action, missing one means no action.
3. Take Profit: The "Alarm Clock" at Midnight
Once the paper profit reaches ≥300%, immediately withdraw the principal + half of the profit, and the remaining half activates the "alarm clock mode":
• For every additional 10% rise, the stop-loss line moves up 7%, always able to catch up in the dream;
• 1:00 AM — 3:00 AM is the high-risk period for "alarm ringing", during this interval, set the stop-loss order as market price to take profit, leaving no gaps for manual intervention. In the past two years, on-chain data backtesting shows that the probability of a flash crash of -8% or more during this period is 4.7 times that of usual.
Three rules, recite them every day when starting up:
1. Always think of ants first, then think of mantises;
2. If the thunderstorm doesn't come, never transform;
3. Once the alarm rings, profits are secured.
Post these three sentences on the side of the screen; it doesn't matter if the handwriting is ugly, it can save lives. @小花生说币
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Relying on it again, the guaranteed loss seems to have no reversal. This is still a downward center. The medium-term outlook is still bearish. Wait for the rise to short; there is a big market trend.
Continue to hold long positions
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Picked up again, weekend liquidity is low, let's play some short-term trading.
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ETHUSDT
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PNL
+7.45USDT
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There will definitely be another drop, but it shouldn't be today. Look for another opportunity.
Continue holding the short position today, still looking at 4290 unchanged
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【Chande Theory Analysis | ETH's Recovery Observation After a Decline Divergence】
ETH's recent decline has actually formed a pen-level divergence structurally. The strength of this decline is gradually weakening, and the price shows a significant reduction in the volume-price coordination during the downward process, indicating signs of stabilization after the release of momentum. From the perspective of Chande Theory, this means that the downward pen has entered its final stages.
In terms of position, there was a significant divergence signal generated during the period from 12 to 14 on the left side. The subsequent trends have basically completed repairs in both spatial and temporal dimensions. The current decline has not reached a larger new low but is oscillating at a low level, further validating the effectiveness of the divergence.
Next, it is crucial to see if the rebound in the next two days can be sustained and attack the key range. If the price can smoothly rebound to 4550, or even further challenge 4600, it will likely confirm that the decline has come to a close, and the market may enter a new phase of oscillation or even return to an upward channel. Conversely, if the rebound faces significant resistance and cannot break through 4550 for a long time, the trend may still fluctuate and enter a longer period of consolidation.
A core view of Chande Theory is: divergence means that the trend may end or reverse. The current ETH has already exhibited a downward divergence and completed its repair action, so the focus of subsequent observation is no longer on monitoring the downward target but on whether the rebound has strength and whether it can form a new upward center.
In summary:
Current status: Downward pen divergence has appeared, position repairs are in place
Key points: 4550 → 4600, if broken, it means the decline has ended
Subsequent expectations: If broken, it enters oscillation or a new round of upward momentum; if blocked, it may continue to oscillate and consolidate
Operational thoughts: Pay attention to the confirmation of the rebound in the short term, avoid blindly bearish positions, and patiently wait for clear trend signals
The core of this market movement lies in verifying the effectiveness of the divergence. If the price can firmly hold above 4550–4600, then ETH may re-enter a relatively optimistic phase.
ETH's recent decline has actually formed a pen-level divergence structurally. The strength of this decline is gradually weakening, and the price shows a significant reduction in the volume-price coordination during the downward process, indicating signs of stabilization after the release of momentum. From the perspective of Chande Theory, this means that the downward pen has entered its final stages.
In terms of position, there was a significant divergence signal generated during the period from 12 to 14 on the left side. The subsequent trends have basically completed repairs in both spatial and temporal dimensions. The current decline has not reached a larger new low but is oscillating at a low level, further validating the effectiveness of the divergence.
Next, it is crucial to see if the rebound in the next two days can be sustained and attack the key range. If the price can smoothly rebound to 4550, or even further challenge 4600, it will likely confirm that the decline has come to a close, and the market may enter a new phase of oscillation or even return to an upward channel. Conversely, if the rebound faces significant resistance and cannot break through 4550 for a long time, the trend may still fluctuate and enter a longer period of consolidation.
A core view of Chande Theory is: divergence means that the trend may end or reverse. The current ETH has already exhibited a downward divergence and completed its repair action, so the focus of subsequent observation is no longer on monitoring the downward target but on whether the rebound has strength and whether it can form a new upward center.
In summary:
Current status: Downward pen divergence has appeared, position repairs are in place
Key points: 4550 → 4600, if broken, it means the decline has ended
Subsequent expectations: If broken, it enters oscillation or a new round of upward momentum; if blocked, it may continue to oscillate and consolidate
Operational thoughts: Pay attention to the confirmation of the rebound in the short term, avoid blindly bearish positions, and patiently wait for clear trend signals
The core of this market movement lies in verifying the effectiveness of the divergence. If the price can firmly hold above 4550–4600, then ETH may re-enter a relatively optimistic phase.
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Capital preservation loss has run away, today it won't drop any further.
Continue holding the short position today, still looking at 4290 unchanged
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The image is the shared image of the order that has been saved
There must be one more drop, otherwise the structure is incomplete
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There must be one more drop, otherwise the structure is incomplete
Continue holding the short position today, still looking at 4290 unchanged
See original
Continue holding the short position today, still looking at 4290 unchanged
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ETHUSDT
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Closed
PNL
-2.99USDT
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There is no short position here; you can add a short position. Stop loss 4430, take profit 4280.
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ETHUSDT
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Closed
PNL
-32.46USDT
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This level of rebound strength, short positions can hold with peace of mind
The market is moving down as expected. Hold the short positions unchanged. Looking below 4300.
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The market is moving down as expected. Hold the short positions unchanged. Looking below 4300.
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ETHUSDT
Perp
Closed
PNL
-32.46USDT
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【Chande Theory Analysis | ETH Downward Center Confirmation, Weak Rebound】
As mentioned yesterday, ETH is still in the process of constructing a downward center. As of today, the center is basically complete, but the trend is weaker than expected: the last drop has not finished yet, and the rebound strength is obviously insufficient, maintaining an overall bearish rhythm.
From the market structure perspective, the rebound highs in the 4480 and 4540 range are relatively clear short positions. According to the rhythm of Chande Theory, these are sell points in the center's oscillation; the price struggle is weak, making it easy for the bears to continue to explore downwards.
On the downside targets, my observation focuses on the 4300 and 4200–4250 range. This is not only a key support zone on the daily chart from the previous period but also a relatively reasonable area for a pullback completion in the downward rhythm. If it can effectively reach and stabilize here, a larger level rebound may occur; if this level is lost, deeper downward space may open up.
Combining with the current market situation, the center has completed three segments, and what is currently lacking is the "last drop." Once this is filled, the structure will be complete. In this case, the short-term strategy remains to short on rebounds, and blindly bottom-fishing is not recommended. It is essential to maintain position discipline and strictly set stop-losses.
Summary:
Rebound range: 4480 / 4540 can consider shorting in batches
Downside target: 4300, 4200–4250 support zone
Market status: Weak rebound, bearish rhythm unchanged
As mentioned yesterday, ETH is still in the process of constructing a downward center. As of today, the center is basically complete, but the trend is weaker than expected: the last drop has not finished yet, and the rebound strength is obviously insufficient, maintaining an overall bearish rhythm.
From the market structure perspective, the rebound highs in the 4480 and 4540 range are relatively clear short positions. According to the rhythm of Chande Theory, these are sell points in the center's oscillation; the price struggle is weak, making it easy for the bears to continue to explore downwards.
On the downside targets, my observation focuses on the 4300 and 4200–4250 range. This is not only a key support zone on the daily chart from the previous period but also a relatively reasonable area for a pullback completion in the downward rhythm. If it can effectively reach and stabilize here, a larger level rebound may occur; if this level is lost, deeper downward space may open up.
Combining with the current market situation, the center has completed three segments, and what is currently lacking is the "last drop." Once this is filled, the structure will be complete. In this case, the short-term strategy remains to short on rebounds, and blindly bottom-fishing is not recommended. It is essential to maintain position discipline and strictly set stop-losses.
Summary:
Rebound range: 4480 / 4540 can consider shorting in batches
Downside target: 4300, 4200–4250 support zone
Market status: Weak rebound, bearish rhythm unchanged
S
ETHUSDT
Perp
Closed
PNL
+83.05USDT
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The downward center built by ETH is weaker than expected. After a rise, it will continue to fall. Keep looking for opportunities to short.
S
ETHUSDT
Perp
Closed
PNL
+287.41USDT
See original
The market is moving as expected
ETH's trend is in the construction phase of a downward center, and the rhythm remains bearish.
📌 Action Plan:
Short in batches at 4650, 4680
Stop Loss: 3720
Target: First target 4530, second target 4470
Logic: Gradually build short positions in the selling zone during the central oscillation, combined with the confirmation signals of center extension and downward trend in Chande theory, strictly controlling risk with stop loss.
📌 Action Plan:
Short in batches at 4650, 4680
Stop Loss: 3720
Target: First target 4530, second target 4470
Logic: Gradually build short positions in the selling zone during the central oscillation, combined with the confirmation signals of center extension and downward trend in Chande theory, strictly controlling risk with stop loss.
See original
ETH's trend is in the construction phase of a downward center, and the rhythm remains bearish.
📌 Action Plan:
Short in batches at 4650, 4680
Stop Loss: 3720
Target: First target 4530, second target 4470
Logic: Gradually build short positions in the selling zone during the central oscillation, combined with the confirmation signals of center extension and downward trend in Chande theory, strictly controlling risk with stop loss.
📌 Action Plan:
Short in batches at 4650, 4680
Stop Loss: 3720
Target: First target 4530, second target 4470
Logic: Gradually build short positions in the selling zone during the central oscillation, combined with the confirmation signals of center extension and downward trend in Chande theory, strictly controlling risk with stop loss.
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