币粉研究院

Bitcoin hits a new high again. In fact, yesterday’s market was not significantly related to retail investors. At 3 AM, there was almost no trading volume in the market before this one-sided move, especially from 11 AM to 2 PM when liquidity was weakest. This one-sided move was entirely driven up by large institutional funds, and small investors who went long just followed along and enjoyed the gains; luck is also a part of strength.

Which had a greater impact on sentiment: the U.S. imposing tariffs or the unclear expectations for interest rate cuts? For us retail investors, it is obviously the tariffs, but for the major institutions, it is the expectations for interest rate cuts.

So why isn’t the market dropping? Because the longer the high-level consolidation lasts, the more retail investors will short the market. It certainly does not serve the interests of the major players to let retail investors easily profit. The major players first need to blow up a wave of highly leveraged gamblers, then knock out the stop losses of those with lower leverage, and finally create a new high. The liquidation map shows that there are now very few shorts left.

After a strong one-sided move, the market will inevitably take time to correct. The heatmap has already provided answers in the range of 111,800 to 115,000, and the retail investors who were knocked out will obediently recharge and use high leverage to buy low and sell high to recover some losses. $BTC

Bitcoin was influenced by the Federal Reserve's news last night, with the expectation of interest rate cuts in July rekindled. The emotions that had been stagnant for over a month were directly ignited, leading to a large bullish candle that pushed it up, reaching a new historical high of 112,000.

In contrast, the tariff stick from last night seems insignificant; the market has become numb to tariffs, and negative factors had no impact on the candlestick chart. Further announcements of tariffs will not adversely affect the market, but successful negotiations would be a positive factor.

The probability of a rate cut in July is virtually zero; the market has basically determined that it will have to wait until September. However, the Federal Reserve unexpectedly suggested that some officials are considering a rate cut in July.

Currently, bullish sentiment and positive news in the market are quite strong. It is important to pay attention to subsequent news. For today, wait for a dip to position for long trades, and follow the trend if a reversal occurs.

Similar to Bitcoin, the focus is still on the high altitude. The convergence triangle in structure is moving a bit slower than Ethereum. The market for Bitcoin has been quite dull these past couple of days, with fluctuations of only around 1%, even less than Ethereum. If it can't break through the upper boundary and the lower boundary doesn't fall, then the coin price will continue to oscillate within the pattern until it reaches the endpoint before making a direction.

There is strong selling pressure at 110,000 in the spot market, and the entity is closing above the MA30, but the MA30 has already become weak and is starting to turn downwards. This is not a very good signal; the MACD is gradually converging, and the trading volume is still insufficient. Currently, the price is high and the volume is low, with the coin price being dominated by institutions.

In the evening, pay attention to the Federal Reserve's monetary meeting in the early morning. Bears should focus on the rebound above the 110,200-110,500 range, defending 110,200, with a target of 2,000-4,000 $BTC

News aspect: Last night’s data showed that the New York Fed's 1-year inflation expectation for June was below expectations, but the difference was not significant. Nevertheless, inflation is easing, which is slightly positive. Last night, Dong Wang announced a proposed 50% tariff on imported copper, with the possibility of drug tariffs reaching up to 200%.

However, this was just mentioned in a reporter's interview and has not been fully implemented or officially announced, which can be considered slightly negative. Combined, these two pieces of news led to a volatile market throughout the night.

Note ⚠️ The second piece of news presents potential risks for the future market.

Today we change our mindset. The selling volume on the heat map between 2670-2680 is very dense, especially at the 2680 line. The structure of the ascending triangle is also about to be broken. Apart from the short-term influence of news, regardless of whether it goes up or down, it's a 50-50 chance. So let's open our minds from the existing data. The liquidation map also shows that there are over 70 million dollars in shorts waiting to be liquidated in this area.

We can consider this area as a strong resistance zone, which is also the previous high point after the formation of the triangular structure. In the past week, the pressure at the top of the triangle has basically been tested every day. The more times it is tested, the less effective the pressure becomes. When everyone reaches this consensus, do you think Ethereum will break upwards? Definitely, but it will be a false breakout.

After the false breakout to the 2670 line that evening, the large sell orders from whales were activated, the shorts at the bottom were liquidated, and there was no upward momentum left in the market. Subsequently, there will be a sharp drop that takes out the retail investors who are bullish after the breakout. Ethereum is focusing on 2670-2690, with a defense at 2730, and a target looking at 50-100$ETH

Ethereum evening 2600 precise entry👌 Short-term take profit first target, today's strategy will be sent later

The pancake isn't worth discussing, it will definitely fall after a long time 📉 Continue to focus on shorting. The selling pressure is strong above 110,000 in the spot market, and the weekly K has already shown a correction trend. A random correction could lead to a few thousand points drop $BTC

Today we continue to discuss Ethereum. Yesterday, Ethereum reached the trend line at 2510-2500, where we perfectly took profits on our low long position.

Our main strategy today is to focus on short positions. Overall, this ascending triangle is about to be broken. If it reaches the end on the hourly chart, it will still take two days. The price fluctuation range is gradually decreasing from left to right, and both bulls and bears are getting closer to their defenses until they collide and break through. Generally, a breakout from an ascending triangle is bullish. However, it is currently noticeable that the volume below is clearly insufficient, and due to the impact of tariffs, if other countries retaliate, the negative factors far outweigh the positive ones.

From the heat map, there are strong sell orders near the upper triangle resistance line at 2600. When the price reaches the upper level tonight, there will definitely be a retracement. Here, the risk-to-reward ratio for a short position is as high as 9.00. The reference range is 2590-2610, and the stop-loss can be tightened to the previous high point 2635$ETH .

Keep adding and adding until tired 🤣#美国加征关税

Ethereum's public thinking is perfectly realized👌 Retracement to the daily MA30 and upward trend line layout for bulls gained over 50 points. Recently affected by tariff issues, the first support level can't hold for much longer. Today's strategy focuses on shorting at high points to see a drop to the second support level $ETH

The pancake has been discussed, just find the point you think has an ideal risk-reward ratio to go short.

Let's take a look at Ethereum. Ethereum has been moving quite steadily in the last two months, mainly focusing on going long on dips in the short term, and the MA30 on the daily chart has been flattening out. There is still considerable support below, with the first short-term support level being around 2500 near the MA30 (which is also on the upward trend line in Chart 2).

The second support level is 2370, which was affected by geopolitical factors half a month ago; it bounced back within two days and completed a support-resistance conversion, also bouncing back multiple times after reaching it. The third support is the previous low at the very bottom, which is hard to reach without significant bearish news.

Tonight, for Ethereum, it is suggested to pay attention to the first support level around 2500. If it reaches that point, you can try to position for long positions, as the buying orders below are very strong, and the risk-reward ratio is very high $ETH

Under the pressure of 110,000 from above, the weekly closing situation of Bitcoin last week was not ideal, and the trading volume has significantly weakened. In fact, the trading volume in recent weeks is far less than that of the same period last year. From Figure 1, it can be seen that the 7-day average trading volume of Bitcoin in June last year compared to June this year has decreased by 350,000 transactions, reaching the lowest point in 19 months, weakening by about 60%. The market seems to have entered a state of 'deathly silence'.

The stablecoin reserves reaching a historical high is also something we should pay close attention to.
The holdings of USDT have exceeded 45 billion USD. These funds are like 'mercenaries' gathered at the border. This capital can be converted into ammunition for bottom buying or become fuel for shorting. This situation reflects the inconsistency and wait-and-see sentiment in the market.

From this, it can be concluded that the supply and demand for Bitcoin has now reversed, new funds have not yet entered, and the price remains trapped in a stalemate of high prices and bottom demand. $BTC

With the arrival of the 'tariff pause' in the last three weeks starting July 9, the market's reaction to volatility is no longer as intense as it was back in April. The worst-case scenario is no longer a consideration. Overall, the deadline for considering tariff buffers has arrived, and short-term uncertainty is once again rising, with prudent investors primarily in a wait-and-see mode.

“Any country that allies with the anti-American policies of the BRICS nations will be subject to an additional 10% tariff. There are no exceptions to this policy. Thank you for your attention to this matter!” 😂 Note: This is additional

The tariff agreement begins to be issued at 2 AM Beijing time. This month, focus on the actions of the understanding king; reaching an agreement is bullish, while the opposite is bearish. $BTC

Has this round of one-sided rise from 74,000 to 112,000 been completed? It can be seen that after the downward trend resistance line was broken by yesterday's solid bullish candle, there was no sign of a further upward breakthrough, but rather it was intercepted and suppressed by the 112,000 mark, subsequently closing in the red and returning below the trend line, with each subsequent low getting lower.

In fact, we can observe that in previous instances, as long as the coin price reached the 112,000 mark and did not continue to close bullish the next day, there would be a significant 10% pullback. In contrast, this time, after reaching 112,000, even with the positive situation of breaking the resistance trend line, it did not continue to stretch, and the market may face a larger pullback?

Looking at on-chain data, on-chain data shows that in the past 24 hours, 5,965 BTC have flowed into exchanges, along with an additional 1,550 BTC influenced by a certain whale's panic sentiment. Coupled with the issue of water cuts and the decision not to cut interest rates, Bitcoin is in a precarious situation. $BTC