方寒的币圈日记

The analysis is correct. The prediction of $1000PEPE is successful again! On 21/8/2024, $PEPE ​​was analyzed through small details


The subsequent two measures were successfully implemented. Continue to look at the details

Musk's call and currency destruction have been realized.

The subsequent trend is likely to be #PEPE创新创历史新高
The first point is that the shouting order and currency destruction have been realized
The second point is the continued increase in the position of the big whale
Detailed analysis
The third point is suppression. Please see the third neiro rising trend chart. We noticed that when the market fell on the 9th, it pulled up 20 points, and then fell strongly on the second day. It can be said that it cut a wave of leeks. Then we look at today. Many coins have only risen to half of the price of the decline, and have not risen. I personally feel that they are suppressing (such as strong currencies Pepe, shib, doge, bonk, flokj, meme, etc.), and do not want to rise so fast (some have risen back and are still breaking new highs). Then it is currently turbulent up and down, attracting funds (the longer the time, the greater the profit), and then wait for the next one to break the new high or cut down again. So at this time, novices are only suitable for spot trading. The contract looks at the entry and then takes the stop profit as the stop loss (must be set, the plunge the day before is a lesson), no loss is profit, the bull market time is long enough
Fourth, Floki’s bank card payment, related strong currencies may also be launched in the future, and the hen will earn long-term benefits from laying golden eggs. (Entity income? Mobile payment?)
So the bull market is coming, and the long-term benefits are indeed true. Have you followed me? A blogger with a high accuracy rate of analysis
Newcomers do not recommend contracts (read the tutorial first, play with the simulation warehouse, and test the water with a small amount of funds), and recommend spot and contracts to find opportunities to enter the market, and remember to stop profit and stop loss!

Speculation has succeeded again, just look at the date of the picture
Next, let's speculate about the impact of Musk changing his avatar (The Simpsons' prophecy, virtual currency replacing currency circulation)
First point: is the well-known Simpsons, which has been airing for decades and has predicted many events, such as the death of a certain sports star, etc., as well as a previous prediction that virtual currency will replace currency (perhaps a revelation)
Second point: #马斯克概念 changed to a frog avatar, everyone knows the last avatar change was $DOGE (see the second picture, Dogecoin USD? Replacing or still the same usage) then from 2017 to now it has risen to 0.45, according to this year's bull market laws, it may rise above 1 dollar is just a matter of time, so what does it have to do with the frog?
Personally, I feel it is replicating the path of Dogecoin, then the two contend, or say the frog also has the potential of Dogecoin, but whether it is $PEPE is not clearly stated in the article, but what we can buy in the secondary market is it, so we can appropriately layout some (I mentioned before that Musk would promote it, and it has been realized), plus every time the bull market approaches its increase is quite astonishing, we can only wait, perhaps we can see a second existence like #DOGE .
A long time ago, the article suggested buying Pepe when it drops below 5 zeros, so continue to wait for a wave.
Follow me to learn more small details about the coin circle, and one day I will post a potential chart of a coin, continue with the article to finally recommend two spot layouts, dogs (previously famous for welfare, good reputation, will there be a wave of pull?) major (games, potential exists, buying at 0.5 can enter the market, several declines have not broken, pressure point has been released, pull probability is high)

$BTC
From the trend, it may drop for one more day, but it won't drop too much. After a brief pullback for a period of time, market sentiment will rise, and then no negative news will be released. At that point, it may ultimately approach the resistance point of 98000. Be careful at this time, there is a high probability of a significant drop at this point. The closer it gets to 100,000, the more cautious you should be. Pay attention to profit-taking and stop-loss. #BTC

CZ: Satoshi Nakamoto is an artificial intelligence from the future
Binance founder CZ stated on social media, "Satoshi Nakamoto is an artificial intelligence from the future. I was just asked in a live interview in Turkey (which is still ongoing) 'who do I think Satoshi Nakamoto might be.' I always tweet while in meetings." $BTC

On April 9th, I saw someone in the group preparing to sell #BTC . I expressed my opinion not to sell, and now it has turned out to be $BTC . I also published an analysis article afterward. Someone even criticized me. Now I've been proven wrong again.

#BTC走势分析 Follow the drawing I made in March, $BTC What are you doing, even following the arrow

paws

#BTC Detaching from the U.S. stock market trends was actually anticipated?
The first point is actually about the trends. I drew this chart and left it there for half a month; friends who are familiar with me should have seen its shadow several times in previous articles.
The second point is market panic. Tariffs caused a sharp decline in U.S. stocks, affecting prices and leading to a U.S. debt crisis. In the article on April 14, I mentioned that as long as the price held above 75500 before the 15th, there wouldn't be significant issues. When it dropped to this price, BTC actually panicked, and as the saying goes, extremes will reverse. Under such a panic state, the probability of a rebound is quite high. But more importantly, it’s about U.S. debt. The global financial market is based on U.S. debt. Therefore, tariff shocks led to a U.S. debt crisis (deterioration of the financial market, concerns about a U.S. economic recession), and the news of various companies gradually purchasing BTC itself indicates a problem: the impact of tariffs is long-term. Consequently, tariffs have led to a credit crisis in U.S. debt, making BTC the best safe-haven asset. The market is excellent, the capacity is large. It has strong encryption. Therefore, safe-haven assets like $BTC
$BNB
will flow in large amounts, and it’s just a matter of time before it stimulates the price of coins to rise (this was speculated in the April 14 article; you can refer to my previous articles).

At 8 AM, I choose to be bullish on $BTC

, first we need to note that BTC has been consolidating between 84 and 86 for a few days (as speculated in the April 14 article).
From the resistance level, it seems there is a high degree of uncertainty, like a balance scale, constantly tilting but remaining balanced. However, one side has gained an extra point. That is the message on the 18th at 9 PM, where US President Trump stated on the 17th local time that he is confident about reaching an agreement with China (mentioning 3 to 4 weeks, roughly within a month). The balance has been disrupted.
Therefore, I choose to be bullish, but still, that’s the thing, in a bear market, it can only be short-term, so pay attention to setting stop-loss and take-profit orders, and take profits when it’s good. Because we also have to consider a variable close to midnight on the 18th, Federal Reserve's Daly: If inflation is more persistent, there may be fewer than two rate cuts this year (a bearish news point), the balance has shifted back a little. However, I am more inclined to believe that BTC will rise tomorrow. So everyone must set their take-profit and stop-loss orders. $BTC $SOL
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Summary of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's Speech: $BTC

$SOL


Don't expect the Federal Reserve to step in to save the market; Trump is changing every day (due to tariff impacts, market uncertainty is very high, which also means increased volatility. Since Trump took office, he hasn't followed my advice. We may only see intervention when the market has digested things sufficiently because the future is uncertain for everyone)
Cryptocurrency is gradually becoming mainstream (establishing a legal framework for stablecoins is a good idea. Because of better market capacity, excellent safe-haven assets, and the key is its cryptographic nature)
Regulatory easing for cryptocurrency-related banks is expected to occur (for example, a certain entity recently abandoned regulation, etc.)
The Federal Reserve is always ready to provide dollar liquidity
(possibly increasing issuance, but more importantly, the Federal Reserve is prepared to provide dollar liquidity through its swap lines with other central banks when necessary)
Artificial intelligence is still in its early stages. (A transformative point of the new era, the future is unknown, and economic impact is inevitable; AI is more like a better version of humanity, but its impacts remain difficult to predict.)
Currently well-prepared to wait for a clearer situation (just two words: wait, waiting for subsequent policies, whether a situation similar to the last tariff machine breaking down will occur)
Economic growth in the U.S. in the first quarter of 2025 may slow compared to last year (PCE inflation is expected to be 2.3% in March, with core PCE growth of 2.6%.)
The impact of tariffs on U.S. inflation may be more persistent (because the crisis has already formed, the subsequent situation will only worsen)
Rising structural risks will reduce the attractiveness of the U.S. (the impacts of tariffs still exist, leading to reduced credit and concerns about U.S. Treasury bonds)
Discussing the impact of tariffs again, emphasizing that the labor market relies on price stability (still due to tariffs, the impact of tariffs has led to rising market prices, which in turn has indirectly reduced the economy. According to him, without price stability, we cannot create long-term strong labor market conditions that benefit all Americans.)
The Federal Reserve will not be influenced by political pressure (the independence of the Federal Reserve is granted by law.)

At 8 AM, I will choose to short $BTC #BTC

, from the trend, nothing can be seen, pure roller coaster, the information indicates a decline, betting on a wave.
From the news perspective, the bearish factors include:
State Council Tariff Commission: Imposing a 125% tariff on all imported goods from the US (starting April 12).
US SEC issues new guidance requiring crypto projects to enhance token information disclosure (it was originally focused on encryption, now they want to disclose? Definitely bearish)

Fed's Goolsbee: The threshold for changing Fed policy is currently quite high
Fed's Collins: Tariffs push up US commodity prices, which may cause the Fed to delay interest rate cuts
(Two points from the Fed merged into one, still the continuous impact caused by tariffs)

Good News: Analysis
US President Trump: Now is a great time to buy (Released at 9:38 AM)
Executive Director of Trump's Digital Asset Advisory Committee: Digital assets will usher in a golden era (At 12:15 PM, Bo Hines, Executive Director of Trump's Digital Asset Advisory Committee, stated on the X platform that under Biden's regulatory regime, digital asset companies have become victims of a weaponized judicial system. President Trump is the true 'Crypto President,' and under his leadership, we will enter a golden era for digital assets and emerging financial technologies)
Because of this news $BTC

$ETH

Sol finally welcomed good news, broke upward, personally feel BTC is still the same as yesterday's article, as long as it remains above 75500 before the 15th (Tariff Day), it will be stable. However, it can only be said that in the long run, Bitcoin is unlikely to fall much more, but altcoins are likely to drop further, so we will decide whether to bottom fish based on subsequent developments. Contracts are still recommended for short-term operations, then use profit-taking as a stop-loss. To avoid being caught in price fluctuations, not losing is gaining, remember that. #BTC

Important Tariff Information: $BTC #美国加征关税


Trump may impose another 50% tariff on China tonight
The EU will start imposing tariffs on American imports on April 15
U.S. officials: Reciprocal tariffs will take effect on time; 'Penguin Island' is no exception (Penguin Island refers to uninhabited islands that people use to register companies for tax evasion purposes)

Director of the U.S. National Economic Council: More than 50 countries are negotiating tariffs (discussing the distribution of benefits, forming alliances, etc.)

Trump: Setting rigorous but reasonable standards (prioritizing U.S. interests, with other countries' interests as secondary; if necessary, sacrificing one's own interests in exchange for something of greater value)

According to CNBC: The White House is unaware of the news regarding the 90-day tariff suspension. Previously, reports indicated that Hassett, the director of the U.S. National Economic Council, stated that Trump is considering suspending tariffs for some countries for 90 days. (Two pieces of news merged into one; internal contradictions? Or is the communication inadequate? Similar to Musk's clarification regarding his resignation from the Doge position)

U.S. Trade Representative: Many countries have indicated they will not take retaliatory measures (perhaps the negotiations on tariffs with 50 countries have yielded results, and some countries have already lowered tariffs. The U.S. Trade Representative's Office: Higher reciprocal tariffs will take effect tomorrow.)

U.S. Department of Justice memorandum: Will basically stop regulating cryptocurrency exchanges and offline wallets (The U.S. Department of Justice memorandum instructs prosecutors to focus on cryptocurrency cases related to Cartel coins and terrorism.)

Currently, the important information regarding tariffs in the market these past two days is summarized above; it may not be time to buy the dip yet. On April 7, I said it would drop in the afternoon, wait for the lowest point in the evening to buy a portion (can hold for now), and on the 8th, there was a rebound (once again a fluctuation, similar to the trends on the 4th and 5th). Thus, I am more inclined to wait and see; we can wait until the 15th (U.S. Tax Day). From now until U.S. Tax Day #BTC , if it can hold above 75500, then we are halfway safe $ETH

March 14, 2025 Diary
Reasons for Market Surge–
1: BlackRock increased its holdings of 47.51 million USD in $BTC

2: Wall Street expects Bitcoin to rebound strongly in Q2 after weakening in March.
3: US stocks rebound (US stock gains continue, Nasdaq gains expanded to 2.13%. In terms of cryptocurrency concept stocks, Strategy gains expanded to 9.90%, Riot Platforms gains expanded to 7.25%, Coinbase up 4.25%)
4: March 20 Federal Reserve interest rate meeting (Market rescue? The future interest rate dot plot that was not previously released will likely be announced) is expected to bring favorable news. Therefore, combined with the above three points, market sentiment is high.
10 PM March 14 Michigan University data:
Inflation expectations are bearish, confidence index is bearish (Figure 2)
Tonight's previous article has already reminded to be bullish at low levels waiting for a rebound, and not to enter the market without positions, mentioning short-term and setting take-profit and stop-loss twice! (Figure 1) #加密市场反弹

Speculation successful again, CPI lower than expected is a positive sign, see the figure below (the end of Figure 2 is an article released in advance speculating a positive outcome, Figure 1 shows the result). #CPI数据来袭 $BTC $ETH

Around 20 points, the market may welcome a big trend (CPI release event). #CPI数据来袭
Today $BTC
Up and down fluctuations, with no technical points to speak of, $ETH
There are even rumors that an insider whale opened a 50x ETH position worth 150 million (specifically targeting quick trades, making nearly 10 million USD), and later someone attempted to counter him, hitting a hundred million but failed. Then the guy added another 80 million long positions, and he has already closed those.
However, the market hasn't seen any significant increase; this trend clearly indicates serious market tug-of-war, and it is highly likely that everyone is waiting for tonight's news to determine the market direction, whether it will rise or fall, depending on whether tonight's CPI release will improve people's speculation (whether prices will continue to rise or inflation?).
Personally, I feel it's favorable; after all, the whale has taken on so many long positions. Although he has closed them now, it is clear that he is waiting for the results of the press conference! The market trend is obviously not over. Remember to set stop-loss and take-profit! Remember!

Latest News: Trump proposed making Canada the 51st state and increasing tariffs
$BTC , after seeing too much, the market becomes immune, so let's consider it good news
$ETH

Tomorrow at 8 AM, I will continue to enter the market to look for opportunities to open positions.
Do not enter the market with a general mindset. After such a significant drop, many people are trying to catch the bottom; the more it is at this time, the less one should enter to catch the bottom or go long, otherwise, it will be like being halfway up the mountain. At least after a drop of 4000 to 5000 points, the market panic will allow attempts to go long (after market panic, it is highly likely that large players will enter to catch the bottom and continue to drop for several days to resistance or panic levels, with a high probability of a rebound). At that time, it is very likely to have a V-shaped reversal. What we are betting on is probability. Facts have confirmed my speculation.
Today's market is the same as what I mentioned in my article at 8 AM, yesterday $BTC

The closing was 80000, and it continued to drop in the latter half of the night, so we first open a short and drop around 4000 to 5000 (based on personal judgment) if it can't go lower, then close the position and look for a long. (The reason is above)
$ETH

The second pancake and the large pancake are not much different, the same rebound point.

An article published at 8 PM came true at 9 PM, I really am not a prophet $BTC $ETH

Full warehouse pressure #BTC走势分析 three-point profit looked at my article yesterday and today must eat a lot. (Figure 2) #加密市场回调
According to my analysis yesterday, market sentiment is too high and one can try to enter the market in reverse. For example, today $BTC
The second bottom has broken through many people's psychological defenses, and the bearish articles are piling up. (As the saying goes, when others are greedy, I am fearful; when others are fearful, I am greedy). (Figure 1)
Currently, the prices of various cryptocurrencies in the market, isn't it a good buying opportunity? According to on-chain observations, many whales are trying to buy potential cryptocurrencies. There are even rumors of whales going long today, which directly boosted market sentiment (Figure 3)
Note: It is currently obvious that the price has not dropped to a level worthy of taking off (there are no particularly good news), and on the contrary, there is a constant stream of bad news. There will be a rebound, but there may still be a decline in the near term. So set your take profit and stop loss properly. Don't think about long-term investments, short-term is more appropriate.
I set my take profit and stop loss too high today, the pullback triggered, it hurts, I missed a lot, but being stable is also good, putting it in the pocket is reassuring. $ETH

$DOGS
It hasn't dropped to the ideal price yet, wait until it breaks below 1 zero in spot or gets close to it to try buying in spot.