Sophia大冰
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BTC 近期围绕103000-105500窄幅震荡，意在拉平持仓成本，蓄势后续行情。震荡越久，后续波动或更剧烈。
从走势看，向下调整概率较大：经历7周连涨后，当前回调幅度是远远不足的，10万关口虽被多头视作强支撑与止损位，但本轮大趋势的回调大概率将跌破该价位，只是时间问题罢了
从走势看，向下调整概率较大：经历7周连涨后，当前回调幅度是远远不足的，10万关口虽被多头视作强支撑与止损位，但本轮大趋势的回调大概率将跌破该价位，只是时间问题罢了
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6.19 Big Cake/Auntie Daily Thoughts
From the market perspective, the short-term volatility is slightly stronger, and Powell's speech in the early morning did not cause significant fluctuations! During the day, it is still recommended to focus on high short positions!
Big Cake: 1055-1060🈳️, Target 1025-1030
Auntie: 2550-2560🈳️, Target 2450
From the market perspective, the short-term volatility is slightly stronger, and Powell's speech in the early morning did not cause significant fluctuations! During the day, it is still recommended to focus on high short positions!
Big Cake: 1055-1060🈳️, Target 1025-1030
Auntie: 2550-2560🈳️, Target 2450
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Last night at 1 AM, Bitcoin only showed an hourly reversal, and the demand for a 1-hour rebound was activated, but correspondingly, the RSI index fell to around 19.9.
This kind of rebound after a divergence at the extremes is not a good sign.
It indicates that the natural momentum is relatively weak, and we can only hope for external sentiment to provide stimulation.
Tonight, it's another tense night!
This kind of rebound after a divergence at the extremes is not a good sign.
It indicates that the natural momentum is relatively weak, and we can only hope for external sentiment to provide stimulation.
Tonight, it's another tense night!
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Suggestion: Stay Rational and Calm, Plan Wisely
In the face of tonight's uncertainty, everyone must be cautious:
- Don't blindly follow the crowd: Just because you see others chasing highs and selling lows doesn't mean you should follow suit; make your own judgments.
In the face of tonight's uncertainty, everyone must be cautious:
- Don't blindly follow the crowd: Just because you see others chasing highs and selling lows doesn't mean you should follow suit; make your own judgments.
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SOL can supplement the orange short position at 153, looking down to 145, 140, if it breaks, continue looking down
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6.18 Midday Thought Analysis of Bitcoin Trend
From the daily chart, Bitcoin has been declining with consecutive bearish candles, touching the 102600 line before starting a rebound. After a period of consolidation, the volume has declined again, but the daily bottom support remains solid.
The 4-hour chart shows the price forming three consecutive bearish candles at the top, with a downward spike to 103300 before rebounding. In the short term, it is expected to fluctuate upwards. The 1-hour level has established a small step-like upward structure, with the low support level coinciding with the lower Bollinger Band support, forming a critical support line that acts as a watershed for bulls and bears. If the price can continue to stabilize above the middle Bollinger Band, the bullish trend will be further established, and the market is expected to continue its upward movement.
Trading Suggestions
- Bitcoin: Go long in the 104000-104500 range, with targets looking towards 105800 - 107000
- Ethereum: Go long in the 2490-2510 range, with targets looking towards 2540-2600.
From the daily chart, Bitcoin has been declining with consecutive bearish candles, touching the 102600 line before starting a rebound. After a period of consolidation, the volume has declined again, but the daily bottom support remains solid.
The 4-hour chart shows the price forming three consecutive bearish candles at the top, with a downward spike to 103300 before rebounding. In the short term, it is expected to fluctuate upwards. The 1-hour level has established a small step-like upward structure, with the low support level coinciding with the lower Bollinger Band support, forming a critical support line that acts as a watershed for bulls and bears. If the price can continue to stabilize above the middle Bollinger Band, the bullish trend will be further established, and the market is expected to continue its upward movement.
Trading Suggestions
- Bitcoin: Go long in the 104000-104500 range, with targets looking towards 105800 - 107000
- Ethereum: Go long in the 2490-2510 range, with targets looking towards 2540-2600.
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The biggest realization in the cryptocurrency space is: there is no one-size-fits-all strategy, only a mindset that continuously adapts to change.
Trading in the cryptocurrency market is not simply about predicting price points, but rather a systematic, comprehensive strategy that integrates understanding of market cycles, risk management, psychological resilience, and disciplined execution.
1. The courage to buy at the bottom: At the most pessimistic times in the market, having the courage to go against the trend is key to achieving high returns. This requires a deep understanding of value and the ability to withstand the psychological pressure brought by short-term fluctuations.
2. The wisdom to sell at the top: At the most euphoric times in the market, being able to clearly see the risks and taking profits in batches is crucial to preserving the fruits of victory. This requires overcoming human greed, not pursuing selling at the highest point, but rather aiming to sell at a "good enough" price point.
3. Always prioritize risk management: Protecting principal is the cornerstone of all investments. At all times, never invest more than you can afford to lose, and set clear stop-loss limits.
4. Maintain a learning and adaptability mindset: The cryptocurrency space is rapidly evolving, with new technologies and narratives emerging constantly. Only by continuously learning can you keep pace with the market and seize new opportunities.
5. Patience is the ultimate victor: The arrival of a bull market takes time, and the accumulation of profits also requires time. Do not be misled by short-term fluctuations; stick to your investment plan and befriend time.
Finally, I want to say that while the cryptocurrency market is full of opportunities, it also comes with enormous risks. Those who can smile in the end are often those who possess both courage and discipline. May we both find our own rhythm in this digital wave, navigate through bull and bear markets, and ultimately reap abundant rewards.
Trading in the cryptocurrency market is not simply about predicting price points, but rather a systematic, comprehensive strategy that integrates understanding of market cycles, risk management, psychological resilience, and disciplined execution.
1. The courage to buy at the bottom: At the most pessimistic times in the market, having the courage to go against the trend is key to achieving high returns. This requires a deep understanding of value and the ability to withstand the psychological pressure brought by short-term fluctuations.
2. The wisdom to sell at the top: At the most euphoric times in the market, being able to clearly see the risks and taking profits in batches is crucial to preserving the fruits of victory. This requires overcoming human greed, not pursuing selling at the highest point, but rather aiming to sell at a "good enough" price point.
3. Always prioritize risk management: Protecting principal is the cornerstone of all investments. At all times, never invest more than you can afford to lose, and set clear stop-loss limits.
4. Maintain a learning and adaptability mindset: The cryptocurrency space is rapidly evolving, with new technologies and narratives emerging constantly. Only by continuously learning can you keep pace with the market and seize new opportunities.
5. Patience is the ultimate victor: The arrival of a bull market takes time, and the accumulation of profits also requires time. Do not be misled by short-term fluctuations; stick to your investment plan and befriend time.
Finally, I want to say that while the cryptocurrency market is full of opportunities, it also comes with enormous risks. Those who can smile in the end are often those who possess both courage and discipline. May we both find our own rhythm in this digital wave, navigate through bull and bear markets, and ultimately reap abundant rewards.
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On June 14, according to CoinDesk, Brazil has canceled its long-standing tax exemption policy on cryptocurrency gains. According to the new temporary decree (Decree No. 1303), individual cryptocurrency profits will be uniformly taxed at a rate of 17.5%.
Previously, individuals selling no more than 35,000 reais (approximately $6,300) in cryptocurrency per month were exempt from taxes. Before this change, profits exceeding that limit were subject to a progressive tax rate, with a maximum rate of 22.5% applicable to transaction amounts over $5.4 million.
Taxing cryptocurrency is an inevitable trend; as cryptocurrency develops to a certain extent, taxation is a necessary path to compliance. Currently, many countries around the world have already begun taxing cryptocurrency.
Previously, individuals selling no more than 35,000 reais (approximately $6,300) in cryptocurrency per month were exempt from taxes. Before this change, profits exceeding that limit were subject to a progressive tax rate, with a maximum rate of 22.5% applicable to transaction amounts over $5.4 million.
Taxing cryptocurrency is an inevitable trend; as cryptocurrency develops to a certain extent, taxation is a necessary path to compliance. Currently, many countries around the world have already begun taxing cryptocurrency.
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The Federal Reserve's decision and Powell's speech early the next morning will impact coin prices. With the situation in Israel escalating, Trump supports Israel, while Iran takes a hardline stance, the situation may exacerbate short-selling pressure. The 100,000 big coin may no longer exist, and subsequent rebounds are opportunities to escape.
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From the market trend, Bitcoin's recent volatility has been continuously narrowing, with low trading volume, showing typical characteristics of a 'pre-reversal night'. Technical indicators show that the Bollinger Bands are continuously contracting, and the MACD indicator is hovering near the zero axis, indicating that the market is about to make a directional choice. If the support level of $106,000 is strongly breached by bears, panic sentiment will quickly spread, triggering a chain sell-off, and the market may face a cliff-like decline.
Therefore, it is recommended to consider short positions near the rebound around $105,500-$106,000, with subsequent targets at $104,000 and $103,300.
Therefore, it is recommended to consider short positions near the rebound around $105,500-$106,000, with subsequent targets at $104,000 and $103,300.
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Wednesday Morning Thoughts on June 18
The midnight Bitcoin continues the thought as it falls back to around 103300 for support, then rebounds to around 105200, later falling back to the range of 104200-104700 for oscillation. Currently, it is oscillating around 104500.
Overall, Bitcoin is showing a downward trend, gradually declining from the high. Although it found support at 103300 and made a rebound, it is currently forming oscillation around 104000.
In the short term, although the downward momentum has weakened, the rebound strength is also limited. Only a breakout above 106000 with increased volume would suggest a further rebound; otherwise, it may continue to test the lower support.
For upward strength, the thought is that for the rebound of Bitcoin, it could bounce back in the range of 105600-106000, looking towards 104100-103200.
For Ethereum, the rebound could be around 2550-2580, looking towards 2480-2430.
The midnight Bitcoin continues the thought as it falls back to around 103300 for support, then rebounds to around 105200, later falling back to the range of 104200-104700 for oscillation. Currently, it is oscillating around 104500.
Overall, Bitcoin is showing a downward trend, gradually declining from the high. Although it found support at 103300 and made a rebound, it is currently forming oscillation around 104000.
In the short term, although the downward momentum has weakened, the rebound strength is also limited. Only a breakout above 106000 with increased volume would suggest a further rebound; otherwise, it may continue to test the lower support.
For upward strength, the thought is that for the rebound of Bitcoin, it could bounce back in the range of 105600-106000, looking towards 104100-103200.
For Ethereum, the rebound could be around 2550-2580, looking towards 2480-2430.
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Ether is also bearish from the high of 2680, having captured a space of 230 points. The bears are about to exert force again.
Currently, it has not reached oversold conditions, and there is still room for a short-term decline. Any rebound is considered a trap for bulls.
Do not chase; remain firmly bearish, otherwise, it will lead to defeat. It is recommended to short in the range of 2540-2590, with a target near 2300!
Currently, it has not reached oversold conditions, and there is still room for a short-term decline. Any rebound is considered a trap for bulls.
Do not chase; remain firmly bearish, otherwise, it will lead to defeat. It is recommended to short in the range of 2540-2590, with a target near 2300!
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U.S. stock market opens, and so far the decline has not continued to widen compared to pre-market.
The VIX index remains around 20, and the current sentiment in the U.S. stock market is cautious and watchful, with no panic mood occurring at the moment.
Today's decline in Bitcoin is an early move ahead of the U.S. stock market; as long as the decline in the stock market does not widen, Bitcoin should stabilize as well.
From the 1-hour trend, the divergence in the range is becoming more apparent, with the RSI index breaking below 30, reaching the oversold range.
Once the U.S. stock market stabilizes, there will be a wave of rebound demand in the 1-hour chart, which needs further observation.
The VIX index remains around 20, and the current sentiment in the U.S. stock market is cautious and watchful, with no panic mood occurring at the moment.
Today's decline in Bitcoin is an early move ahead of the U.S. stock market; as long as the decline in the stock market does not widen, Bitcoin should stabilize as well.
From the 1-hour trend, the divergence in the range is becoming more apparent, with the RSI index breaking below 30, reaching the oversold range.
Once the U.S. stock market stabilizes, there will be a wave of rebound demand in the 1-hour chart, which needs further observation.
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