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The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points at next week's meeting, with the probability rising to 90% based on positive inflation and wage growth data. Governor Ueda and Deputy Himino have reinforced these expectations by stating that discussions on a rate hike will be held. Political stability after the election and government support for the BoJ's independent decisions are also key factors.
The Japanese yen surged sharply, making it the best-performing G10 currency this week, driven by speculative position adjustments, despite increased USD/JPY volatility ahead of the decision.
Looking at previous events, Bitcoin pumped more than 10% before Trump’s speech at the Bitcoin conference on July 29, 2024 (US time: Night, July 28, 2024). Subsequently, the market peaked due to a "sell the news" reaction and a correction, worsened by the BoJ's rate hike of 0.25%, which forced foreign investors to sell their paper asset holdings in the market. Bitcoin’s market dropped 30% from its peak after that. The culmination occurred on August 5 with a carry trade event that triggered a 14% Bitcoin drop in a single day.
If history is likely to repeat itself, as retail crypto traders are already euphoric about Trump, signaling a temporary market peak. The BoJ has already hinted at a rate hike, with the right momentum expected after Trump’s inauguration. Bitcoin is projected to drop by 15% from its peak after the Trump event, with the carry trade peak anticipated on Wednesday, January 29, 2025 (assuming a similar scenario of a 5-day lag after the BoJ hike).
Predicted Dip Range: $88K – $92K
Red: Trump event
Blue: BoJ rate hike
Green: Deepest dump
Source: Tradingview, Reuters, Tradingeconomics
#carrytrade #BEARISH📉
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points at next week's meeting, with the probability rising to 90% based on positive inflation and wage growth data. Governor Ueda and Deputy Himino have reinforced these expectations by stating that discussions on a rate hike will be held. Political stability after the election and government support for the BoJ's independent decisions are also key factors.
The Japanese yen surged sharply, making it the best-performing G10 currency this week, driven by speculative position adjustments, despite increased USD/JPY volatility ahead of the decision.
Looking at previous events, Bitcoin pumped more than 10% before Trump’s speech at the Bitcoin conference on July 29, 2024 (US time: Night, July 28, 2024). Subsequently, the market peaked due to a "sell the news" reaction and a correction, worsened by the BoJ's rate hike of 0.25%, which forced foreign investors to sell their paper asset holdings in the market. Bitcoin’s market dropped 30% from its peak after that. The culmination occurred on August 5 with a carry trade event that triggered a 14% Bitcoin drop in a single day.
If history is likely to repeat itself, as retail crypto traders are already euphoric about Trump, signaling a temporary market peak. The BoJ has already hinted at a rate hike, with the right momentum expected after Trump’s inauguration. Bitcoin is projected to drop by 15% from its peak after the Trump event, with the carry trade peak anticipated on Wednesday, January 29, 2025 (assuming a similar scenario of a 5-day lag after the BoJ hike).
Predicted Dip Range: $88K – $92K
Red: Trump event
Blue: BoJ rate hike
Green: Deepest dump
Source: Tradingview, Reuters, Tradingeconomics
#carrytrade #BEARISH📉
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